Hot takes following a bad loss & terrible start to the season

[todd_days_41]

I think the "heart" discussion is a little overrated in Boston. Team needs a) better players, and b) indeed ones that compliment each other.

Leaving aside the obvious near-term small stuff -- Schroeder over Smart, Nesmith taking some of Richardson's minutes -- the Cs are finally going to have to face this question (likely without choice) between now and the FA period next summer:

What is the best possible package they can get for Brown, Smart, and filler (Richardson, Horford) and / or picks in one or two large trades?

Because if Stevens doesn't get serious on that topic, there's significant risk teams will smell blood in the water (namely: Tatum being unhappy), and the value of the package will go down as the Cs hand is forced due to spiraling locker room and floor fit issues.

My personal feeling is this: if the Cs traded every player on the roster today other than Tatum and Bob Williams, i'd be 100% ok with that. Because in the next couple seasons, I bet that's exactly what happens.

[slamtheking]

I think the "heart" discussion is a little overrated in Boston. Team needs a) better players, and b) indeed ones that compliment each other.

Leaving aside the obvious near-term small stuff -- Schroeder over Smart, Nesmith taking some of Richardson's minutes -- the Cs are finally going to have to face this question (likely without choice) between now and the FA period next summer:

What is the best possible package they can get for Brown, Smart, and filler (Richardson, Horford) and / or picks in one or two large trades?

Because if Stevens doesn't get serious on that topic, there's significant risk teams will smell blood in the water (namely: Tatum being unhappy), and the value of the package will go down as the Cs hand is forced due to spiraling locker room and floor fit issues.

My personal feeling is this: if the Cs traded every player on the roster today other than Tatum and Bob Williams, i'd be 100% ok with that. Because in the next couple seasons, I bet that's exactly what happens.

if there is indeed that kind of a firesafe on this team, Timelord will be out the door before Jaylen and several others.

[mobilija]

A lot of well thought out takes here and in other threads. Most of them seem centered around player pairings and the offense. Some good ideas and many of them I would be interested to see how they look. For instance, wouldn't mind seeing more bench usage (Kanter, Parker, Nesmith in particular), more action with the Jays together, less iso w forced shots and an upgrade in personnel that fits (hello Fournier). However, the main problem I'm seeing is the defense.

Horford and TimeLord are putting up some excellent individual numbers but those aren't translating to good team defense. It looks to my untrained eye that guys are out of position on defense all over the place. Failing on the switch everything defense to get to their man. JB and JT to Smart and Richardson (our supposed perimeter defensive stalwarts). I watched some of the "10 take aways" videos over at CelticsBlog and it's a consistent failure of recovery to their switched assignments, Richardson in particular with swiss cheese defense.

Numbers for thought: With the small sample size caveat of most teams having only played 6 or 7 games, the Celtics have the worst opponents PPG at 119.7. But.... they've played 5 OT periods. I took that into account and subtracted out the opponents OT points scored. The Celtics still came in at 113.8 OPP PPG, worst in the NBA followed by Pacers at 113.3 and Kings at 112.9.

My hot take: Scrap the switch everything defense and let our supposed excellent defenders win their individual battles. Cut out the gimmicks and play hard nosed defense.

[todd_days_41]

I think the "heart" discussion is a little overrated in Boston. Team needs a) better players, and b) indeed ones that compliment each other.

Leaving aside the obvious near-term small stuff -- Schroeder over Smart, Nesmith taking some of Richardson's minutes -- the Cs are finally going to have to face this question (likely without choice) between now and the FA period next summer:

What is the best possible package they can get for Brown, Smart, and filler (Richardson, Horford) and / or picks in one or two large trades?

Because if Stevens doesn't get serious on that topic, there's significant risk teams will smell blood in the water (namely: Tatum being unhappy), and the value of the package will go down as the Cs hand is forced due to spiraling locker room and floor fit issues.

My personal feeling is this: if the Cs traded every player on the roster today other than Tatum and Bob Williams, i'd be 100% ok with that. Because in the next couple seasons, I bet that's exactly what happens.

if there is indeed that kind of a firesafe on this team, Timelord will be out the door before Jaylen and several others.

Couldn't disagree more. He's young, of ascending value / impact, on a reasonable contract, and impacts the game without needing the ball. He duplicates no player on the roster. You keep him.

[slamtheking]

I think the "heart" discussion is a little overrated in Boston. Team needs a) better players, and b) indeed ones that compliment each other.

Leaving aside the obvious near-term small stuff -- Schroeder over Smart, Nesmith taking some of Richardson's minutes -- the Cs are finally going to have to face this question (likely without choice) between now and the FA period next summer:

What is the best possible package they can get for Brown, Smart, and filler (Richardson, Horford) and / or picks in one or two large trades?

Because if Stevens doesn't get serious on that topic, there's significant risk teams will smell blood in the water (namely: Tatum being unhappy), and the value of the package will go down as the Cs hand is forced due to spiraling locker room and floor fit issues.

My personal feeling is this: if the Cs traded every player on the roster today other than Tatum and Bob Williams, i'd be 100% ok with that. Because in the next couple seasons, I bet that's exactly what happens.

if there is indeed that kind of a firesafe on this team, Timelord will be out the door before Jaylen and several others.

Couldn't disagree more. He's young, of ascending value / impact, on a reasonable contract, and impacts the game without needing the ball. He duplicates no player on the roster. You keep him.

he's less skilled than others and has a well-established issue with missing games for health reasons. 

he's an NBA caliber player that I don't think we're using to his potential but as far as pieces to be used in trades, Jaylen (as an example) would be a building block you keep unless blown away in a deal.  Timelord is not a mere throw-in for a trade but he's definitely playing a position that needs to be upgraded.

[slamtheking]

A lot of well thought out takes here and in other threads. Most of them seem centered around player pairings and the offense. Some good ideas and many of them I would be interested to see how they look. For instance, wouldn't mind seeing more bench usage (Kanter, Parker, Nesmith in particular), more action with the Jays together, less iso w forced shots and an upgrade in personnel that fits (hello Fournier). However, the main problem I'm seeing is the defense.

Horford and TimeLord are putting up some excellent individual numbers but those aren't translating to good team defense. It looks to my untrained eye that guys are out of position on defense all over the place. Failing on the switch everything defense to get to their man. JB and JT to Smart and Richardson (our supposed perimeter defensive stalwarts). I watched some of the "10 take aways" videos over at CelticsBlog and it's a consistent failure of recovery to their switched assignments, Richardson in particular with swiss cheese defense.

Numbers for thought: With the small sample size caveat of most teams having only played 6 or 7 games, the Celtics have the worst opponents PPG at 119.7. But.... they've played 5 OT periods. I took that into account and subtracted out the opponents OT points scored. The Celtics still came in at 113.8 OPP PPG, worst in the NBA followed by Pacers at 113.3 and Kings at 112.9.

My hot take: Scrap the switch everything defense and let our supposed excellent defenders win their individual battles. Cut out the gimmicks and play hard nosed defense.

this.  we're getting killed on this defensive philosophy because the other team's know we're always going to switch so they get whatever mismatch they want and exploit it. 

[Celtics2021]

A lot of well thought out takes here and in other threads. Most of them seem centered around player pairings and the offense. Some good ideas and many of them I would be interested to see how they look. For instance, wouldn't mind seeing more bench usage (Kanter, Parker, Nesmith in particular), more action with the Jays together, less iso w forced shots and an upgrade in personnel that fits (hello Fournier). However, the main problem I'm seeing is the defense.

Horford and TimeLord are putting up some excellent individual numbers but those aren't translating to good team defense. It looks to my untrained eye that guys are out of position on defense all over the place. Failing on the switch everything defense to get to their man. JB and JT to Smart and Richardson (our supposed perimeter defensive stalwarts). I watched some of the "10 take aways" videos over at CelticsBlog and it's a consistent failure of recovery to their switched assignments, Richardson in particular with swiss cheese defense.

Numbers for thought: With the small sample size caveat of most teams having only played 6 or 7 games, the Celtics have the worst opponents PPG at 119.7. But.... they've played 5 OT periods. I took that into account and subtracted out the opponents OT points scored. The Celtics still came in at 113.8 OPP PPG, worst in the NBA followed by Pacers at 113.3 and Kings at 112.9.

My hot take: Scrap the switch everything defense and let our supposed excellent defenders win their individual battles. Cut out the gimmicks and play hard nosed defense.

Our defensive rating when Horford and Williams are on the court together (i.e. our team defense) is 89.5, which would be the best in the league by a wide margin if it were for a team rather than a lineup.  There's a lot wrong this year, but the defensive results when we go with Horford and Time Lord is not among them.  It's been one of the few bright spots.

[todd_days_41]

I think the "heart" discussion is a little overrated in Boston. Team needs a) better players, and b) indeed ones that compliment each other.

Leaving aside the obvious near-term small stuff -- Schroeder over Smart, Nesmith taking some of Richardson's minutes -- the Cs are finally going to have to face this question (likely without choice) between now and the FA period next summer:

What is the best possible package they can get for Brown, Smart, and filler (Richardson, Horford) and / or picks in one or two large trades?

Because if Stevens doesn't get serious on that topic, there's significant risk teams will smell blood in the water (namely: Tatum being unhappy), and the value of the package will go down as the Cs hand is forced due to spiraling locker room and floor fit issues.

My personal feeling is this: if the Cs traded every player on the roster today other than Tatum and Bob Williams, i'd be 100% ok with that. Because in the next couple seasons, I bet that's exactly what happens.

if there is indeed that kind of a firesafe on this team, Timelord will be out the door before Jaylen and several others.

Couldn't disagree more. He's young, of ascending value / impact, on a reasonable contract, and impacts the game without needing the ball. He duplicates no player on the roster. You keep him.

he's less skilled than others and has a well-established issue with missing games for health reasons. 

he's an NBA caliber player that I don't think we're using to his potential but as far as pieces to be used in trades, Jaylen (as an example) would be a building block you keep unless blown away in a deal.  Timelord is not a mere throw-in for a trade but he's definitely playing a position that needs to be upgraded.

less skilled than others at what? he has the most unique skill set on the team - period.

as for injuries, take your pick of players who have worked their way thru such concerns when young. Joel Embiid couldn't stay healthy when young either -- should the Sixers have given up on him? Bob's hardly Romeo Langford..... he needs to continue to work on his body and he'll be fine.

regardless, you're missing my point. the one i am making is: there's a wide open question as to whether Tatum and Brown can successfully co-lead a championship level basketball team -- and i believe that's going to come to a head one way or another sooner than many others do. I hope it does to the affirmative, but the (fairly large) sample size is starting to get ugly.

[nickagneta]

I think the "heart" discussion is a little overrated in Boston. Team needs a) better players, and b) indeed ones that compliment each other.

Leaving aside the obvious near-term small stuff -- Schroeder over Smart, Nesmith taking some of Richardson's minutes -- the Cs are finally going to have to face this question (likely without choice) between now and the FA period next summer:

What is the best possible package they can get for Brown, Smart, and filler (Richardson, Horford) and / or picks in one or two large trades?

Because if Stevens doesn't get serious on that topic, there's significant risk teams will smell blood in the water (namely: Tatum being unhappy), and the value of the package will go down as the Cs hand is forced due to spiraling locker room and floor fit issues.

My personal feeling is this: if the Cs traded every player on the roster today other than Tatum and Bob Williams, i'd be 100% ok with that. Because in the next couple seasons, I bet that's exactly what happens.

if there is indeed that kind of a firesafe on this team, Timelord will be out the door before Jaylen and several others.

Couldn't disagree more. He's young, of ascending value / impact, on a reasonable contract, and impacts the game without needing the ball. He duplicates no player on the roster. You keep him.

he's less skilled than others and has a well-established issue with missing games for health reasons. 

he's an NBA caliber player that I don't think we're using to his potential but as far as pieces to be used in trades, Jaylen (as an example) would be a building block you keep unless blown away in a deal.  Timelord is not a mere throw-in for a trade but he's definitely playing a position that needs to be upgraded.

less skilled than others at what? he has the most unique skill set on the team - period.

as for injuries, take your pick of players who have worked their way thru such concerns when young. Joel Embiid couldn't stay healthy when young either -- should the Sixers have given up on him? Bob's hardly Romeo Langford..... he needs to continue to work on his body and he'll be fine.

regardless, you're missing my point. the one i am making is: there's a wide open question as to whether Tatum and Brown can successfully co-lead a championship level basketball team -- and i believe that's going to come to a head one way or another sooner than many others do. I hope it does to the affirmative, but the (fairly large) sample size is starting to get ugly.

You mean like the Jays winning more playoff games as a tandem since Tatum entered the league than 28 total teams? That sample size?

[slamtheking]

I think the "heart" discussion is a little overrated in Boston. Team needs a) better players, and b) indeed ones that compliment each other.

Leaving aside the obvious near-term small stuff -- Schroeder over Smart, Nesmith taking some of Richardson's minutes -- the Cs are finally going to have to face this question (likely without choice) between now and the FA period next summer:

What is the best possible package they can get for Brown, Smart, and filler (Richardson, Horford) and / or picks in one or two large trades?

Because if Stevens doesn't get serious on that topic, there's significant risk teams will smell blood in the water (namely: Tatum being unhappy), and the value of the package will go down as the Cs hand is forced due to spiraling locker room and floor fit issues.

My personal feeling is this: if the Cs traded every player on the roster today other than Tatum and Bob Williams, i'd be 100% ok with that. Because in the next couple seasons, I bet that's exactly what happens.

if there is indeed that kind of a firesafe on this team, Timelord will be out the door before Jaylen and several others.

Couldn't disagree more. He's young, of ascending value / impact, on a reasonable contract, and impacts the game without needing the ball. He duplicates no player on the roster. You keep him.

he's less skilled than others and has a well-established issue with missing games for health reasons. 

he's an NBA caliber player that I don't think we're using to his potential but as far as pieces to be used in trades, Jaylen (as an example) would be a building block you keep unless blown away in a deal.  Timelord is not a mere throw-in for a trade but he's definitely playing a position that needs to be upgraded.

less skilled than others at what? he has the most unique skill set on the team - period.

as for injuries, take your pick of players who have worked their way thru such concerns when young. Joel Embiid couldn't stay healthy when young either -- should the Sixers have given up on him? Bob's hardly Romeo Langford..... he needs to continue to work on his body and he'll be fine.

regardless, you're missing my point. the one i am making is: there's a wide open question as to whether Tatum and Brown can successfully co-lead a championship level basketball team -- and i believe that's going to come to a head one way or another sooner than many others do. I hope it does to the affirmative, but the (fairly large) sample size is starting to get ugly.

the point you were making is that Timelord is a keeper over Brown.  I'm saying he's not.  he's athletic.  I was a doubter about his team D but he's brought me around on that last year.  I think he's got a good 15-ft shot we don't use nearly enough on offense but in no way is he to be considered a building block.  too injury prone.  using Embiid as the example of what he'll be pretty much kills your case.

The J's coexisting isn't the issue.  the issue is the offensive and defensive schemes as well as the rest of the roster.  they need to get some consistency in what they provide this season but they're the building blocks, not the rest.

[mobilija]

A lot of well thought out takes here and in other threads. Most of them seem centered around player pairings and the offense. Some good ideas and many of them I would be interested to see how they look. For instance, wouldn't mind seeing more bench usage (Kanter, Parker, Nesmith in particular), more action with the Jays together, less iso w forced shots and an upgrade in personnel that fits (hello Fournier). However, the main problem I'm seeing is the defense.

Horford and TimeLord are putting up some excellent individual numbers but those aren't translating to good team defense. It looks to my untrained eye that guys are out of position on defense all over the place. Failing on the switch everything defense to get to their man. JB and JT to Smart and Richardson (our supposed perimeter defensive stalwarts). I watched some of the "10 take aways" videos over at CelticsBlog and it's a consistent failure of recovery to their switched assignments, Richardson in particular with swiss cheese defense.

Numbers for thought: With the small sample size caveat of most teams having only played 6 or 7 games, the Celtics have the worst opponents PPG at 119.7. But.... they've played 5 OT periods. I took that into account and subtracted out the opponents OT points scored. The Celtics still came in at 113.8 OPP PPG, worst in the NBA followed by Pacers at 113.3 and Kings at 112.9.

My hot take: Scrap the switch everything defense and let our supposed excellent defenders win their individual battles. Cut out the gimmicks and play hard nosed defense.

Our defensive rating when Horford and Williams are on the court together (i.e. our team defense) is 89.5, which would be the best in the league by a wide margin if it were for a team rather than a lineup.  There's a lot wrong this year, but the defensive results when we go with Horford and Time Lord is not among them.  It's been one of the few bright spots.

I didn't mean to indicate that their pairing was bad or some kind of cause. But the fact is those two aren't getting a lot of minutes together (thats gotta be very small sample size) because 1) not both being available at the same time an 2) the drop off behind them is baaaaad, we have no 3rd big. Grant works as long as one of them are on the court and after him....nothing. And 3) they both need minutes management. It's not sustainable to play them together very much. Playing them together more is not a solution to our pourous defense. Others have to step up or be put in a position to be able to step up.

[PhoSita]

You mean like the Jays winning more playoff games as a tandem since Tatum entered the league than 28 total teams? That sample size?

Big difference in how the team has performed with Tatum & Brown on the floor from Fall 2020 - Fall 2021 compared to how it looked Summer 2018 - Summer 2020.

[gouki88]

You mean like the Jays winning more playoff games as a tandem since Tatum entered the league than 28 total teams? That sample size?

Big difference in how the team has performed with Tatum & Brown on the floor from Fall 2020 - Fall 2021 compared to how it looked Summer 2018 - Summer 2020.

Not especially. Even this season we are outscoring the opposition quite significantly with the Jays on the floor.

[blink]

I don't think our bad def is getting enough attention.  We are giving up 119 ppg.  Even when you factor out the multiple overtimes that we have had we are still giving up 114+/- ppg.  114 puts us in the bottom 3 in the league.

We are also been rebounding poorly, we are minus - 6.1 in rebound differential, which is 2nd worst in the NBA.
We are also only grabbing 46.1 boards a game which is also 2nd worse in the NBA.

Those rebounds stats are made worse by our opponents FG% which is also 2nd worse in the NBA at 43% per game, just a little bit behind the Spurs as the worst.

So we can talk all day about Smart's dumb comments, Ime calling out Jaylen, JT's struggles and guys not producing, but will any of that even matter until we start playing better defense?  If we get 4-5 more stops in every game we are probably 5-2.  Is getting one more stop every quarter unattainable?  It seems so right now for our def.  Hopefully that changes.

I have no idea who to blame for the bad def, maybe a combo of the coaching, the def scheme, and the players not executing.  But we are lotto bound if the def doesn't improve.

[PhoSita]

I don't think our bad def is getting enough attention.  We are giving up 119 ppg.  Even when you factor out the multiple overtimes that we have had we are still giving up 114+/- ppg.  114 puts us in the bottom 3 in the league.

We are also been rebounding poorly, we are minus - 6.1 in rebound differential, which is 2nd worst in the NBA.
We are also only grabbing 46.1 boards a game which is also 2nd worse in the NBA.

Those rebounds stats are made worse by our opponents FG% which is also 2nd worse in the NBA at 43% per game, just a little bit behind the Spurs as the worst.

So we can talk all day about Smart's dumb comments, Ime calling out Jaylen, JT's struggles and guys not producing, but will any of that even matter until we start playing better defense?  If we get 4-5 more stops in every game we are probably 5-2.  Is getting one more stop every quarter unattainable?  It seems so right now for our def.  Hopefully that changes.

I have no idea who to blame for the bad def, maybe a combo of the coaching, the def scheme, and the players not executing.  But we are lotto bound if the def doesn't improve.

The most concerning aspect of this is that the Celts were barely an average defensive team last year.

When you look at the trendline starting in summer 2020 through to now, the defense has gotten a lot worse over that time.  It's a bit mystifying.  It probably comes down to team chemistry getting gradually worse over that time, combined with injuries + COVID.

I also think that another consistent trend over that same period is that there's been an increasing offensive burden placed on Tatum and Brown. That means those guys have less energy and focus to offer on the defensive end. 


This is fundamentally a different team, with a much lower ceiling, if Tatum is simply a below average defensive player now.  Same with JB.  This team has no hope if Tatum + Brown + Smart + Rob Williams is not the foundation of a top tier defense.  Emphasis on "top tier." That group can't simply be "solid" on defense.  They have to be GREAT.  If those guys can't be great defensively anymore, for whatever reason, then we need to radically re-evaluate the plan because this isn't going to work.