NBA Season 2021-22

[Moranis]

Cavs loss places is in a virtual tie (we’ve played two more games); Heat loss, Sixers win, and Bucks win places us 4.5 behind 1st, 2.5 behind 3rd, and 1.5 behind 5th, respectively, with 18 games left.

We’re 4th in remaining SOS according to W%, the Bucks are 1st and the Bulls are 3rd in that metric so 2 out of the 5 ahead will have just as tough of a schedule. Defense travels, but Home court advantage against what will surely be a tough opponent will be comforting in a 1st round series.

Match-ups are way more important than seeding.  I'd much rather play Chicago than Philly or Cleveland than Milwaukee, as examples. 

[slamtheking]

Cavs loss places is in a virtual tie (we’ve played two more games); Heat loss, Sixers win, and Bucks win places us 4.5 behind 1st, 2.5 behind 3rd, and 1.5 behind 5th, respectively, with 18 games left.

We’re 4th in remaining SOS according to W%, the Bucks are 1st and the Bulls are 3rd in that metric so 2 out of the 5 ahead will have just as tough of a schedule. Defense travels, but Home court advantage against what will surely be a tough opponent will be comforting in a 1st round series.

Match-ups are way more important than seeding.  I'd much rather play Chicago than Philly or Cleveland than Milwaukee, as examples.

I agree to an extent.  a good team on a roll going into the playoffs that also has players that present a difficult match can typically overcome another team's homecourt advantage.

[Celtics2021]

Cavs loss places is in a virtual tie (we’ve played two more games); Heat loss, Sixers win, and Bucks win places us 4.5 behind 1st, 2.5 behind 3rd, and 1.5 behind 5th, respectively, with 18 games left.

We’re 4th in remaining SOS according to W%, the Bucks are 1st and the Bulls are 3rd in that metric so 2 out of the 5 ahead will have just as tough of a schedule. Defense travels, but Home court advantage against what will surely be a tough opponent will be comforting in a 1st round series.

Match-ups are way more important than seeding.  I'd much rather play Chicago than Philly or Cleveland than Milwaukee, as examples.

With the incredible parity of the top-6 in the East this year, but to mention the threatening teams that are currently the 7th and 8th seeds, that is absolutely true.  Most years there’s a lot of correlation between seeding and matchup, but not this year.

Still, all things equal, it’s absolutely better to have home court advantage than not.  With the exception of Philly, all of the Top 6 teams in the East have performed far better at home than on the road.  To advance in the playoffs you’re going to likely come up against a less than optimal matchup, but if you have home-court for that series, you’ll be much better off.  C’s are 3 games out of second.  It’s a tough hill to climb over the last month to get to the 2 seed, but that could be huge if they did.

[Moranis]

Cavs loss places is in a virtual tie (we’ve played two more games); Heat loss, Sixers win, and Bucks win places us 4.5 behind 1st, 2.5 behind 3rd, and 1.5 behind 5th, respectively, with 18 games left.

We’re 4th in remaining SOS according to W%, the Bucks are 1st and the Bulls are 3rd in that metric so 2 out of the 5 ahead will have just as tough of a schedule. Defense travels, but Home court advantage against what will surely be a tough opponent will be comforting in a 1st round series.

Match-ups are way more important than seeding.  I'd much rather play Chicago than Philly or Cleveland than Milwaukee, as examples.

With the incredible parity of the top-6 in the East this year, but to mention the threatening teams that are currently the 7th and 8th seeds, that is absolutely true.  Most years there’s a lot of correlation between seeding and matchup, but not this year.

Still, all things equal, it’s absolutely better to have home court advantage than not.  With the exception of Philly, all of the Top 6 teams in the East have performed far better at home than on the road.  To advance in the playoffs you’re going to likely come up against a less than optimal matchup, but if you have home-court for that series, you’ll be much better off.  C’s are 3 games out of second.  It’s a tough hill to climb over the last month to get to the 2 seed, but that could be huge if they did.

Sure, but if Boston is the 2 and ends up playing Brooklyn in the 1st round, then Boston is going to lose that series.

[Celtics2021]

Cavs loss places is in a virtual tie (we’ve played two more games); Heat loss, Sixers win, and Bucks win places us 4.5 behind 1st, 2.5 behind 3rd, and 1.5 behind 5th, respectively, with 18 games left.

We’re 4th in remaining SOS according to W%, the Bucks are 1st and the Bulls are 3rd in that metric so 2 out of the 5 ahead will have just as tough of a schedule. Defense travels, but Home court advantage against what will surely be a tough opponent will be comforting in a 1st round series.

Match-ups are way more important than seeding.  I'd much rather play Chicago than Philly or Cleveland than Milwaukee, as examples.

With the incredible parity of the top-6 in the East this year, but to mention the threatening teams that are currently the 7th and 8th seeds, that is absolutely true.  Most years there’s a lot of correlation between seeding and matchup, but not this year.

Still, all things equal, it’s absolutely better to have home court advantage than not.  With the exception of Philly, all of the Top 6 teams in the East have performed far better at home than on the road.  To advance in the playoffs you’re going to likely come up against a less than optimal matchup, but if you have home-court for that series, you’ll be much better off.  C’s are 3 games out of second.  It’s a tough hill to climb over the last month to get to the 2 seed, but that could be huge if they did.

Sure, but if Boston is the 2 and ends up playing Brooklyn in the 1st round, then Boston is going to lose that series.

I think it’s pretty unlikely Brooklyn winds up the 7-seed.  I don’t think they’ll beat Toronto in a head-to-head in Toronto, and by this time next week they could be in the 9th spot in the conference.  If you want to avoid Brooklyn, don’t be the 1 seed.

[Vermont Green]

Current Standings:

1.  MIA
2.  CHI
3.  PHI
4.  MIL
5.  CLE
6.  BOS

Best, realistic final standings

1.  MIA
2.  PHI
3.  MIL
4.  CHI
5.  BOS
6.  CLE

So if we can pass CLE and CHI drops down with MIL and PHI moving up (all reasonable assumptions), then we get CHI on the first round and MIA in the second.  MIL is only 1.5 gms behind CHI right now so it is very realistic.

The potential play in teams (7 and 8 seeds) could be good, TOR, ATL, BKN, so no certainty that MIA wins that round.

[Donoghus]

C's looking pretty decent in the tiebreaker scenarios at the moment.

[Celtics2021]

Tiebreakers have a good chance of mattering in the standings, so here's an update on tiebreaker status:

Miami -- C's lead series 2-0, only one more game left, so C's have the tiebreaker.
Chicago -- Bulls lead series 2-1.  One game left (@ CHI 4/6).  If C's win, conference record is next tiebreaker, and C's have 1.5 game lead in conference (assuming 4/6 win).
Philly -- Series tied, 2-2.  Division record is next tiebreaker.  C's have 1.5 game lead with two division games left to play.  Tiebreaker after that is conference record, and C's have 2.5 game lead.
Milwaukee -- C's lead series 2-1, final game @ Milwaukee on 4/7.  If C's lose, they would be 1/2 game behind Milwaukee for the conference record tiebreaker.
Cleveland -- C's won series, 2-1, so they have the tiebreaker.

As you can see, the Celtics are in very good shape with the tiebreakers.  They've clinched it against Miami and Cleveland, and need only to win one more division game or have Philly lose one division game to get the tiebreaker vs. Philly.  Milwaukee and Chicago are tougher, but if they win either of the upcoming head-to-heads (unfortunately on back-to-back nights) they would either clinch or likely clinch those tiebreakers as well.

[Celtics2021]

C's looking pretty decent in the tiebreaker scenarios at the moment.

Hah, I was just creating a detailed breakdown of them when you posted this.

[Donoghus]

C's looking pretty decent in the tiebreaker scenarios at the moment.

Hah, I was just creating a detailed breakdown of them when you posted this.

Great timing!

[SparzWizard]

Tiebreakers have a good chance of mattering in the standings, so here's an update on tiebreaker status:

Miami -- C's lead series 2-0, only one more game left, so C's have the tiebreaker.
Chicago -- Bulls lead series 2-1.  One game left (@ CHI 4/6).  If C's win, conference record is next tiebreaker, and C's have 1.5 game lead in conference (assuming 4/6 win).
Philly -- Series tied, 2-2.  Division record is next tiebreaker.  C's have 1.5 game lead with two division games left to play.  Tiebreaker after that is conference record, and C's have 2.5 game lead.
Milwaukee -- C's lead series 2-1, final game @ Milwaukee on 4/7.  If C's lose, they would be 1/2 game behind Milwaukee for the conference record tiebreaker.
Cleveland -- C's won series, 2-1, so they have the tiebreaker.

As you can see, the Celtics are in very good shape with the tiebreakers.  They've clinched it against Miami and Cleveland, and need only to win one more division game or have Philly lose one division game to get the tiebreaker vs. Philly.  Milwaukee and Chicago are tougher, but if they win either of the upcoming head-to-heads (unfortunately on back-to-back nights) they would either clinch or likely clinch those tiebreakers as well.

Good to have the tiebreakers somewhat on our side. But all this would be a waste if they lose games that they should be winning against such as the Pistons and Pacers of the league.

[Vermont Green]

Milwaukee and Chicago are tougher, but if they win either of the upcoming head-to-heads (unfortunately on back-to-back nights) they would either clinch or likely clinch those tiebreakers as well.

To me, a good outcome could be we beat CHI and then lose to MIL.  Tough to expect to win both of these tough games, especially back to back.  That would favor MIL passing CHI in the standings and setting us up for CHI in the first round.  I know you have to be careful what you wish for but if we can get to 5th and CHI drops to 4th seed, I like that first round match a whole lot better than PHI or MIL.

[Celtics2021]

Milwaukee and Chicago are tougher, but if they win either of the upcoming head-to-heads (unfortunately on back-to-back nights) they would either clinch or likely clinch those tiebreakers as well.

To me, a good outcome could be we beat CHI and then lose to MIL.  Tough to expect to win both of these tough games, especially back to back.  That would favor MIL passing CHI in the standings and setting us up for CHI in the first round.  I know you have to be careful what you wish for but if we can get to 5th and CHI drops to 4th seed, I like that first round match a whole lot better than PHI or MIL.

For what it's worth, I think if we beat CHI on 4/6, we'd wind up at least the 4th seed, maybe hosting CHI, maybe hosting Cleveland.

However, I'm also someone who thinks we match up better against Milwaukee than Chicago.  I think Milwaukee is a great team and are the defending champs for a reason, but I just like that matchup for the Celtics.  We have a variety of players who can help contain Giannis, but on the other hand I think we're very vulnerable to DeRozan's elite mid-range game.

[RPGenerate]

Milwaukee and Chicago are tougher, but if they win either of the upcoming head-to-heads (unfortunately on back-to-back nights) they would either clinch or likely clinch those tiebreakers as well.

To me, a good outcome could be we beat CHI and then lose to MIL.  Tough to expect to win both of these tough games, especially back to back.  That would favor MIL passing CHI in the standings and setting us up for CHI in the first round.  I know you have to be careful what you wish for but if we can get to 5th and CHI drops to 4th seed, I like that first round match a whole lot better than PHI or MIL.

For what it's worth, I think if we beat CHI on 4/6, we'd wind up at least the 4th seed, maybe hosting CHI, maybe hosting Cleveland.

However, I'm also someone who thinks we match up better against Milwaukee than Chicago.  I think Milwaukee is a great team and are the defending champs for a reason, but I just like that matchup for the Celtics.  We have a variety of players who can help contain Giannis, but on the other hand I think we're very vulnerable to DeRozan's elite mid-range game.

The problem with this line of thinking is that regular season DeRozan is the same player in the playoffs, which has repeatedly been proven to be wrong. There's a reason that he has the nickname "Defrozen".

[Celtics2021]

Milwaukee and Chicago are tougher, but if they win either of the upcoming head-to-heads (unfortunately on back-to-back nights) they would either clinch or likely clinch those tiebreakers as well.

To me, a good outcome could be we beat CHI and then lose to MIL.  Tough to expect to win both of these tough games, especially back to back.  That would favor MIL passing CHI in the standings and setting us up for CHI in the first round.  I know you have to be careful what you wish for but if we can get to 5th and CHI drops to 4th seed, I like that first round match a whole lot better than PHI or MIL.

For what it's worth, I think if we beat CHI on 4/6, we'd wind up at least the 4th seed, maybe hosting CHI, maybe hosting Cleveland.

However, I'm also someone who thinks we match up better against Milwaukee than Chicago.  I think Milwaukee is a great team and are the defending champs for a reason, but I just like that matchup for the Celtics.  We have a variety of players who can help contain Giannis, but on the other hand I think we're very vulnerable to DeRozan's elite mid-range game.

The problem with this line of thinking is that regular season DeRozan is the same player in the playoffs, which has repeatedly been proven to be wrong. There's a reason that he has the nickname "Defrozen".

The problem with that line of thinking is that assumes that DeRozan is the same player this year that he was 5 years ago in Toronto.  His TS% is about 10 percent better the last three seasons than even his career-best years in Toronto.  He hasn’t seen a post-season since his regular-season jump, but he’s hit a different stratosphere and will rightly finish in the top 3-4 of MVP voting barring a March collapse.

It’s not the same thing, but DeRozan is 2nd in the league in clutch points, and of players in the top 15, only he, Chris Paul, and Devin Booker have FG% greater than 50%.  In Toronto, he shot in the 40s and even high 30s in the clutch.  He’s a different player than he was.