Milwaukee and Chicago are tougher, but if they win either of the upcoming head-to-heads (unfortunately on back-to-back nights) they would either clinch or likely clinch those tiebreakers as well.
To me, a good outcome could be we beat CHI and then lose to MIL. Tough to expect to win both of these tough games, especially back to back. That would favor MIL passing CHI in the standings and setting us up for CHI in the first round. I know you have to be careful what you wish for but if we can get to 5th and CHI drops to 4th seed, I like that first round match a whole lot better than PHI or MIL.
For what it's worth, I think if we beat CHI on 4/6, we'd wind up at least the 4th seed, maybe hosting CHI, maybe hosting Cleveland.
However, I'm also someone who thinks we match up better against Milwaukee than Chicago. I think Milwaukee is a great team and are the defending champs for a reason, but I just like that matchup for the Celtics. We have a variety of players who can help contain Giannis, but on the other hand I think we're very vulnerable to DeRozan's elite mid-range game.
The problem with this line of thinking is that regular season DeRozan is the same player in the playoffs, which has repeatedly been proven to be wrong. There's a reason that he has the nickname "Defrozen".
The problem with that line of thinking is that assumes that DeRozan is the same player this year that he was 5 years ago in Toronto. His TS% is about 10 percent better the last three seasons than even his career-best years in Toronto. He hasn’t seen a post-season since his regular-season jump, but he’s hit a different stratosphere and will rightly finish in the top 3-4 of MVP voting barring a March collapse.
It’s not the same thing, but DeRozan is 2nd in the league in clutch points, and of players in the top 15, only he, Chris Paul, and Devin Booker have FG% greater than 50%. In Toronto, he shot in the 40s and even high 30s in the clutch. He’s a different player than he was.
So when I say he's been very poor in the playoffs, you respond by saying he's been great in the regular season? I get it, he's been good this year, but he's gonna have to prove to me he can be anything but garbage in the playoffs before I start to be scared of him. And this is in the context of Giannis, who just won a champion and dominated the finals. There's just no way I'm more afraid of the Bulls than the Bucks. Not even close.
No, I responded by saying his regular seasons have improved greatly since we last saw him have poor playoff series
5 seasons ago, and accordingly, if his regular-season play has improved over that time, his postseason play probably will have also. Further, in high-leverage regular season situations, which is about as close as you can get to postseason pressure outside the actual postseason, he has a) significantly improved relative to 5-7 years ago, and b) has become one of the premier players in the league in these situations.