I think the Celtics could be a surprise team this year.

[liam]

I am cautiously optimistic, as we don't have half a roster of g league level talents like last year.

This is the optimistic season, the off-season. This year's team has gotten some significant upgrades. The whole Kemba off-again-on-again thing last year was maddening for fans and probably much worse for the players. Consistent bench players will be a big boost for the long season.

[Moranis]

I am cautiously optimistic, as we don't have half a roster of g league level talents like last year.

Walker
Fournier
Thompson
Semi
Kornet
Parker

became

Schroder
Horford
Richardson
Kanter
Dunn
Fernando


Who is the G League Talent and who replaced them?

[Vermont Green]

I am cautiously optimistic, as we don't have half a roster of g league level talents like last year.

Walker
Fournier
Thompson
Semi
Kornet
Parker

became

Schroder
Horford
Richardson
Kanter
Dunn
Fernando


Who is the G League Talent and who replaced them?

Walker        =     Schroder
Fournier      =     Richardson
Thompson   <     Horford
Semi           <     Kanter
Kornet         =    Fernando
Edwards (?) <    Dunn

Horford and Kanter are an upgrade over Thompson and Semi (albeit potentially not a huge upgrade), and I think all the others will be about a wash when games played (durability), production, fit, etc. are all considered.  Fournier, for example, only played 16 games and wasn't that great in those games.  Richardson does not need to do all that much to contribute to more wins than Fournier did.   Same type of thing with Walker.  Schroder can help by just being on the court and he is pretty good.

I can see Kornet, Semi, and Edwards being considered as G-League level.  Waters and Fall played a fair amount as well.  Dunn and Kanter are certainly better than Semi and Edwards but how much difference does this make?  I like Fernando over Kornet but I don't expect much impact to the team from this change either.

[Vermont Green]

But more to the point of the thread, last season the Celtics won 36 out of 72 so to match that, they need to win 41 this season.  I think they will easily beat that.  Maybe 47.5 (I actually guessed and then checked the betting line and this is exactly the win total over under).  So does 48 wins make them a surprise team (not a surprise to Vegas apparently)?  50 wins would be a nice but not really something I would call a surprise.

48-50 wins would make them what, 4th or 5th in the east?  Win one round and lose to the Bucks or Nets?  Would that really surprise anyone?  If they can get to 3rd in the east, they still probably only win one round unless there are upsets.

To me, winning two rounds in the playoffs would be where I would start to be surprised.  If that does happen, it will be more about injuries to other teams than anything surprising that the Celtics do.  So we win 50 games (nice), get 3rd seed (Philly and Miami slump), Harden and Durant get injured and surprise, we beat the Nets in the second round.

[droopdog7]

I think we can have a top 5 defense paired with a top 10 offense.  Not quite sure where that winds up overall, but top 4 in the conference feels attainable, with upside if the offense clicks with better ball movement and gets to top 5 as well, and/or our defensive intensity leads to more fast-break opportunities.

I think offense is going to be a real struggle.  Not sure what the metric will say but we could be bottom third in terms of effectiveness.

[action781]

I'm very excited to see what Al Horford brings to this team in chemistry.  I think our entire offense will get more efficient.  I could see Payton Pritchard successfully running those handoff offensive sets with him that IT used to run. 

I look forward to seeing Pritchard's continued connections with Time Lord for alley oops.

I look forward to Jaylen and Tatum improving their overall games and also their offensive efficiency.  I thought their shot selection last season was largely as poor as I could ask for, so I expect that to be their floor for efficiency which excites me.

I look forward to the improvement of our very young guys - Time Lord, Pritchard, Nesmith, and Romeo - who all were somewhere in the 7th-11th man type players last season to all becoming more like 5th-8th men being counted on for valuable consistent nightly production.  Even if just 3/4 get there, that's still big.

I look forward to Smart playing under the reassurance of having his next 5 years of contract locked up.

I'm concerned about what Schroder is going to play like and his offensive fit.  Thankfully I think his defense is something we can rely on.

For me, my "average outcome" for this team would be the 4th/5th seed.  I'd say a trip to the ECF would surprise me, since 2/3 best teams in the NBA are in the East, but something I see happening when I put my green goggles on.

[Hoopvortex]

I can see ... Semi... being considered as G-League level. 

He was an NBA rotation player every season he played in Boston, only falling out of the rotation after he was injured this past season. Obviously the Celtics' coaching staff and management did not consider him to be G-League level. In any case, they picked up his option both for year 3 and year 4 of his contract.

After they parted ways this offseason, the Bucks picked him up almost immediately. A full recovery is a good bet, so it's likely that Ojeleye's NBA-level career continues for a while longer.

[Somebody]

Talent wise I think we can compete for top four, but we're not getting anything close to the most out of them this season

[nickagneta]

I think we can have a top 5 defense paired with a top 10 offense.  Not quite sure where that winds up overall, but top 4 in the conference feels attainable, with upside if the offense clicks with better ball movement and gets to top 5 as well, and/or our defensive intensity leads to more fast-break opportunities.

I think offense is going to be a real struggle.  Not sure what the metric will say but we could be bottom third in terms of effectiveness.

As bad as last year was, the team still posted top 10 stats in offensive ratings and points per 100 possessions. I can not imagine a scenario where this team drops out of the top 10 as an offensive team, nevermind being a bottom third offensive team.

Remember, last year's issue was on the defensive side of the ball, not offense. Even if the offense was tough to watch at times, it still was top 10.

[Moranis]

I am cautiously optimistic, as we don't have half a roster of g league level talents like last year.

Walker
Fournier
Thompson
Semi
Kornet
Parker

became

Schroder
Horford
Richardson
Kanter
Dunn
Fernando


Who is the G League Talent and who replaced them?

Walker        =     Schroder
Fournier      =     Richardson
Thompson   <     Horford
Semi           <     Kanter
Kornet         =    Fernando
Edwards (?) <    Dunn

Horford and Kanter are an upgrade over Thompson and Semi (albeit potentially not a huge upgrade), and I think all the others will be about a wash when games played (durability), production, fit, etc. are all considered.  Fournier, for example, only played 16 games and wasn't that great in those games.  Richardson does not need to do all that much to contribute to more wins than Fournier did.   Same type of thing with Walker.  Schroder can help by just being on the court and he is pretty good.

I can see Kornet, Semi, and Edwards being considered as G-League level.  Waters and Fall played a fair amount as well.  Dunn and Kanter are certainly better than Semi and Edwards but how much difference does this make?  I like Fernando over Kornet but I don't expect much impact to the team from this change either.

Whether the team is better is not the question I asked. 

Kornet signed a 2 year 4.5 million contract with the Bulls
Semi signed a 1 year 1.7 million contract with the Bucks

So clearly, the Bulls and Bucks would disagree with the assessment of G-League talent from those 2.

Waters and Fall were 2W players, which by definition are G-League type players - same has Hauser (the other 2W isn't signed yet)

and Edwards is still on the team (so if he was a G-League talent last year, he is still on the team)

I'm asking a specific poster who he thinks the G-League talent last year was and how that is different than this year because I'm just not seeing much difference in the last part of this roster. 

[Vermont Green]

I am cautiously optimistic, as we don't have half a roster of g league level talents like last year.

Walker
Fournier
Thompson
Semi
Kornet
Parker

became

Schroder
Horford
Richardson
Kanter
Dunn
Fernando


Who is the G League Talent and who replaced them?

Walker        =     Schroder
Fournier      =     Richardson
Thompson   <     Horford
Semi           <     Kanter
Kornet         =    Fernando
Edwards (?) <    Dunn

Horford and Kanter are an upgrade over Thompson and Semi (albeit potentially not a huge upgrade), and I think all the others will be about a wash when games played (durability), production, fit, etc. are all considered.  Fournier, for example, only played 16 games and wasn't that great in those games.  Richardson does not need to do all that much to contribute to more wins than Fournier did.   Same type of thing with Walker.  Schroder can help by just being on the court and he is pretty good.

I can see Kornet, Semi, and Edwards being considered as G-League level.  Waters and Fall played a fair amount as well.  Dunn and Kanter are certainly better than Semi and Edwards but how much difference does this make?  I like Fernando over Kornet but I don't expect much impact to the team from this change either.

Whether the team is better is not the question I asked. 

Kornet signed a 2 year 4.5 million contract with the Bulls
Semi signed a 1 year 1.7 million contract with the Bucks

So clearly, the Bulls and Bucks would disagree with the assessment of G-League talent from those 2.

Waters and Fall were 2W players, which by definition are G-League type players - same has Hauser (the other 2W isn't signed yet)

and Edwards is still on the team (so if he was a G-League talent last year, he is still on the team)

I'm asking a specific poster who he thinks the G-League talent last year was and how that is different than this year because I'm just not seeing much difference in the last part of this roster.

I am with you.  I just piggybacked on your post as I thought the way you lined up the additions and subtractions was interesting and took it back towards the original question of the thread. 

I do agree that we had some borderline talent, Kornet, Edwards, these are fringe NBA players, but NBA players.  I think the problem with last season was that we had some players who should be deep bench playing regular minutes at times due to injuries and roster imbalance.  Edwards is probably lowest on the depth chart and he is fine as the 6th or 7th guard.  Edwards actually started a game.  GWilliams started 9, Ojeleye 15.  Mo Wagner started 4 games.

As to the contracts that Kornet and Ojeleye got, it just shows how desperate teams get for some size.  Those are end of the bench contracts though.  I doubt Ojeleye is expected to start 15 games, but as an end of the bench player, he is solid.  Versatile, reliable, absolutely.  I don't see him as a D-League level player, but he is only fringe NBA, getting a min contract in his prime.

[Hoopvortex]

I think we can have a top 5 defense paired with a top 10 offense.  Not quite sure where that winds up overall, but top 4 in the conference feels attainable, with upside if the offense clicks with better ball movement and gets to top 5 as well, and/or our defensive intensity leads to more fast-break opportunities.

I think offense is going to be a real struggle.  Not sure what the metric will say but we could be bottom third in terms of effectiveness.

I'm more optimistic than you are.

Schröder's abilities in particular have been misused since he left Atlanta. His last four seasons there he had an Assist% of over 34% each year, which put him in an elite group at the top of the league. He turns 28 in October in good health - there's no reason why he couldn't create shots at a similar clip, now that he doesn't have to play with Chris Paul or LeBron James. Even with that he wasn't too bad last year, at 26.9%.

Kemba was a pick-and-roll genius, but that became largely theoretical due to a bad knee - even when he could actually play. By the way, I think that the Knicks made a mistake in acquiring him.

Schröder is not a pick-and-roll genius, so the offense will look substantially different, and would have even without the coaching change. He does have a relentlessness about driving, can make a play or get to the line (FTr of .320 last year, which is golden), and is a good finisher.

Boston's big strength on offense last season was offensive rebounding - they were 5th in the league. They've lost Tristan Thompson but added Enes Kanter; and while any one player has less of an effect than how the team plays on a broad statistic like that, it would be surprising if that did not continue to be a strength. Horford's never been great at it, but Rob is excellent. Offensive rebounders are underappreciated floor-spacers.

Speaking of that, Payton Pritchard's role is something of a mystery; at 195 he's substantially heavier than Schröder, yet he doesn't look ready to take on guarding a lot of wings - therefore pairing them together looks problematic. On the other hand a pairing with Smart looks like a good fit. Regarding spacing, it appears that defenders are going to have to pick him up anytime he gets within 35 feet of the basket - that's a pretty substantial asset for CIU to have in his arsenal.

I'm not alone in thinking that Aaron Nesmith is ready to take the next step toward stardom. He's got great body control and skill to put it on the floor to drive; he's a lot more than a spot-up threat even at this stage, and the beauty of that is that he can grow out of a role that perfectly complements the existing veterans on the team.

[Big333223]

Am I the only one who thinks this team improved on offense?

They lost Kemba and Fournier but Fournier was never really here so I don't count that as a loss. Kemba was only available half the time and while Schroder isn't quite the offensive player, he's still an excellent creator with the ball in his hands who will fit better alongside the J's.

Richardson and Horford are huge offensive upgrades over Theis and Thompson. Plus another year of development for the J's and Smart as offensive load carriers and for the role players (Pritchard, Nesmith, Timelord).

[Celtics2021]

Am I the only one who thinks this team improved on offense?

They lost Kemba and Fournier but Fournier was never really here so I don't count that as a loss. Kemba was only available half the time and while Schroder isn't quite the offensive player, he's still an excellent creator with the ball in his hands who will fit better alongside the J's.

Richardson and Horford are huge offensive upgrades over Theis and Thompson. Plus another year of development for the J's and Smart as offensive load carriers and for the role players (Pritchard, Nesmith, Timelord).

I think this team can be improved on offense (as I said in some thread).  Last year they collectively played worse than their abilities.  Hopefully a renewed effort on ball movement and running actual sets will up their game, as will an increased focus on defense that can lead to more/easier transition opportunities.  I’m not sure if on paper they’re better than last year, but on the court they looked worse than on paper would suggest, so I’m in favor of throwing out the paper.

[Vermont Green]

Am I the only one who thinks this team improved on offense?

They lost Kemba and Fournier but Fournier was never really here so I don't count that as a loss. Kemba was only available half the time and while Schroder isn't quite the offensive player, he's still an excellent creator with the ball in his hands who will fit better alongside the J's.

Richardson and Horford are huge offensive upgrades over Theis and Thompson. Plus another year of development for the J's and Smart as offensive load carriers and for the role players (Pritchard, Nesmith, Timelord).

Evan Fournier averaged 13 pts/gm in his 16 games with the Celtics.  That is below his recent average production but the point is correct, Fournier did not do much for the Celtics in his time here.  He was not that good.  Richardson can give us the equivalent offense of what Fournier gave us last year and probably better defense.

As to Walker vs. Schroder, after returning from injury, and in between taking back to backs off, Kemba did manage to get his numbers, better numbers than Schroder will likely get.  Basketball isn't about what one player gets, it is about what the team gets.  I think the point is that the team offense will be equal or better with Schroder over Kemba.  Certainly with Horford over Thompson.

I feel our offense, based on personnel, will be equal or better.  I am not concerned about that at all.  A couple of years ago, Kemba was a guy who hit big shots at big moments.  He didn't so much last season but you don't expect that from Schroder to the same degree that Kemba once could and maybe still can.  It was nice to have that from Kemba.  We will have to get that now from others.