Grading Brad's first trade

[GetLucky]

On its face, I'd rank this trade a B+, but with the subsequent moves that are now possible, I'd rank it an A-:

1) moving TT
2) re-signing Fournier
3) trading for a max contract next year, when Al is $34.475 million (27.5 * 1.25 + 100k) for matching but only $14.5 million guaranteed

[slamtheking]

On its face, I'd rank this trade a B+, but with the subsequent moves that are now possible, I'd rank it an A-:

1) moving TT
2) re-signing Fournier
3) trading for a max contract next year, when Al is $34.475 million (27.5 * 1.25 + 100k) for matching but only $14.5 million guaranteed

his salary would help but C's would have to find more assets to sent out with him.  it's not like they have that stockpile of picks anymore and young players are additional salary going out in the deal

[Roy H.]

On its face, I'd rank this trade a B+, but with the subsequent moves that are now possible, I'd rank it an A-:

1) moving TT
2) re-signing Fournier
3) trading for a max contract next year, when Al is $34.475 million (27.5 * 1.25 + 100k) for matching but only $14.5 million guaranteed

his salary would help but C's would have to find more assets to sent out with him.  it's not like they have that stockpile of picks anymore and young players are additional salary going out in the deal

Luckily we have all of our own first rounders left beyond the coming draft.  That puts us in a better position in that regard than the Nets, Lakers, Sixers and Bucks.

[sgrogan]

After we hang banner18 next year Al's contract is fully guaranteed, so the savings aren't as big as people are assuming.

[Vermont Green]

There is another piece to this that we don't know so it is hard to grade.  The Celtics save around $10M in 2021-22 and I think $12M 2022-23 (more if they release Horford).  The piece that we don't know is whether this savings allows them to do something they otherwise would not have.  If that ends up being nothing, than I give this a C.

In looking at the team for next season, there is a lot to like.  I break it down as follows.

Wings:
Tatum, Brown, Fournier (assumed), Nesmith
Very strong, maybe even the best group of wings in the league.

PG/Combo Guards:
Smart, Pritchard, Langford, Nadar (maybe)
Walker is gone from this group so some vet scoring is lost but this group is still decent.  Certainly serviceable.  I have Langford here as I don't really see him with enough size to be a true wing.

Bigs/Swings:
Horford, Thompson, RWilliams, Parker, GWilliams, Moses Brown, Kornet(?)
Still a very weak group.  I guess Horford and maybe Parker will improve us.  Not sure any of these players are really starter level.  All kind of fringe starter at best.  Parker started like 25 games for Atl in 2019-20 putting up 16 and 7 or something like that but I don't see him starting.

[Muzzy66]

I’m in the B range. It’s not a home run for sure but I like acquiring Horford. He’s a vet, he has the respect of both Jays, he plays the right way, and he can be a stabilizing presence on offense for the team. I don’t expect him to play big minutes but his off court contributions may outweigh his on court contributions.

Plus, we shave a year off of Kemba’s contract. Can we play in free agency sooner? Idk. Time will tell. We definitely still need a 3rd star to surround the Jays with to become a contender. I’m also surprised GBS made a trade without having a coach in place first

Not sure we do need a 3rd star.

Look how well Atlanta and Phoenix have done this season workout that 3rd star.  Milwaukee have also been consistentl to strong despite not really having any big name stars behind Giannis.

Meanwhile Brooklyn and Philly (with their star studded lineups) are both one loss away from elimination.

I think people get too drawn in to the glitz and glamour.  A star studded team like GS / LA win a title and everybody stars assuming that's the only way.  But then those star studded teams are always extremely top heavy, and sometimes all it takes is one key injury and the season is over. 

Sometimes I think it might be better to have one superstar, one all-star, and quality depth - that way when one man goes down you have a better chance of the next guy stepping up and less drop off.

Brooklyn is one game away from elimination the same way the Bucks are one game away from elimination. And the fact that the Nets are still in it despite the injuries is pretty amazing.

And how is Philly star studded? They have 2 stars like us. Tobias Harris is just paid really well but he’s never made an allstar team. The difference though is that Embiid is an MVP-level talent.

If Tatum blossoms into a fringe MVP candidate/surefire all NBA talent, then maybe we don’t need that third star. You mention the Bucks being consistently strong but let’s not pretend like Giannis isnt a 2-time MVP and a DPOY. Tatum didn’t even make the all-NBA this year.

Yes Bucks are 1 game from elimination as well, but that only reinforces my point.  The Nets have two perennial MVP candidates and a genuine superstar.  The Bucks have one perennial MVP candidates and there next best player isn't even a surefire All-Star.  In terms of sheer star power the Nets outnumber the Bucks 3:1 and yet it's no given right now that they'll get past them in the playoffs.

Philly has an MVP candidate (Embiid), a DPOTY candidate (Simmons) and a fringe all-star (Harris). 

Look at the teams currently left in the playoffs - ATL, MIL, BRK, UTA, LAC, PHO.  Aside from Brooklyn, would you say any of those other teams have a more star power then Philly?  Clippers (Kawhi, George) and Suns (CP3, Booker) are the only other teams in that list that I would consider to have two star-level players.

Key takeaway for me is that out of the 7 teams still left in the playoffs only 4 of them have what I would consider two genuine star players.  Only one of those teams has three stars (Brooklyn).

I don't think it's entirely obvious that having three star players is a necessity to contend for a title in this league now days.

[Stig]

For the Celtics ownership: A+
They saved so much money in the next couple of years, it's like a couple of luxury mansions.

For the team: C-
I agree the timing is really weird, it's way too early, depending on how the playoff goes, more team may enter selling mode and OKC is always there. We haven't even got a coach, so Al may not play under the new coach's system. I hope Brad has a plan, like with the money saved we can position ourselves to sign someone else.

One thing is for sure, the new GM does not think 1st round picks as high as the last one. It makes me wonder how much did Brad agree with DA's off season moves.

Are you happy with the trade?

I'll go first.

I like Horford. I reckon he's a starting-caliber Center despite his age. He's also a nice fit alongside the Jays. That said, I don't like the trade.

In a vacuum, Kemba is the best player in the deal. Sure, he's overpaid, but the same goes for Horford. Really don't think we should have included #16. First round picks are valuable assets. Imo, it's an overpay on our part.

Most deals happen on draft night/at the deadline for a reason. Teams are unwilling to lower their asking price prior to the draft night unless they are desperate to make a trade. It's when they run out of time on draft night that they finally compromise regarding their asking price. To put it another way, trade negotiations are like the game of chicken. Whomever backs down first loses the game. The C's backed down way too early and they got fleeced. Our rookie GM made a rookie mistake. I miss Danny already.

Don't know enough about Moses Brown. Based on a quick search, I'm not impressed. All in all, I'm somewhere between D and D+.

[Roy H.]

We haven't even got a coach, so Al may not play under the new coach's system.

I think that this probably isn’t a major concern. Is there a coach in the league who couldn’t use Al Horford?

[Stig]

You don't need a 3rd star if your top dog is a recent MVP winner.

As good as Tatum is, he's not at MVP level yet, there's a good chance he'll never be at that level. So unless you swap Brown with one of KD/AD/Jokic/Giannis/Kawhi, maybe Doncic and LBJ, getting a 3rd star is an easier way to success.

I’m in the B range. It’s not a home run for sure but I like acquiring Horford. He’s a vet, he has the respect of both Jays, he plays the right way, and he can be a stabilizing presence on offense for the team. I don’t expect him to play big minutes but his off court contributions may outweigh his on court contributions.

Plus, we shave a year off of Kemba’s contract. Can we play in free agency sooner? Idk. Time will tell. We definitely still need a 3rd star to surround the Jays with to become a contender. I’m also surprised GBS made a trade without having a coach in place first

Not sure we do need a 3rd star.

Look how well Atlanta and Phoenix have done this season workout that 3rd star.  Milwaukee have also been consistentl to strong despite not really having any big name stars behind Giannis.

Meanwhile Brooklyn and Philly (with their star studded lineups) are both one loss away from elimination.

I think people get too drawn in to the glitz and glamour.  A star studded team like GS / LA win a title and everybody stars assuming that's the only way.  But then those star studded teams are always extremely top heavy, and sometimes all it takes is one key injury and the season is over. 

Sometimes I think it might be better to have one superstar, one all-star, and quality depth - that way when one man goes down you have a better chance of the next guy stepping up and less drop off.

Brooklyn is one game away from elimination the same way the Bucks are one game away from elimination. And the fact that the Nets are still in it despite the injuries is pretty amazing.

And how is Philly star studded? They have 2 stars like us. Tobias Harris is just paid really well but he’s never made an allstar team. The difference though is that Embiid is an MVP-level talent.

If Tatum blossoms into a fringe MVP candidate/surefire all NBA talent, then maybe we don’t need that third star. You mention the Bucks being consistently strong but let’s not pretend like Giannis isnt a 2-time MVP and a DPOY. Tatum didn’t even make the all-NBA this year.

Yes Bucks are 1 game from elimination as well, but that only reinforces my point.  The Nets have two perennial MVP candidates and a genuine superstar.  The Bucks have one perennial MVP candidates and there next best player isn't even a surefire All-Star.  In terms of sheer star power the Nets outnumber the Bucks 3:1 and yet it's no given right now that they'll get past them in the playoffs.

Philly has an MVP candidate (Embiid), a DPOTY candidate (Simmons) and a fringe all-star (Harris). 

Look at the teams currently left in the playoffs - ATL, MIL, BRK, UTA, LAC, PHO.  Aside from Brooklyn, would you say any of those other teams have a more star power then Philly?  Clippers (Kawhi, George) and Suns (CP3, Booker) are the only other teams in that list that I would consider to have two star-level players.

Key takeaway for me is that out of the 7 teams still left in the playoffs only 4 of them have what I would consider two genuine star players.  Only one of those teams has three stars (Brooklyn).

I don't think it's entirely obvious that having three star players is a necessity to contend for a title in this league now days.

[celticsclay]

I’m in the B range. It’s not a home run for sure but I like acquiring Horford. He’s a vet, he has the respect of both Jays, he plays the right way, and he can be a stabilizing presence on offense for the team. I don’t expect him to play big minutes but his off court contributions may outweigh his on court contributions.

Plus, we shave a year off of Kemba’s contract. Can we play in free agency sooner? Idk. Time will tell. We definitely still need a 3rd star to surround the Jays with to become a contender. I’m also surprised GBS made a trade without having a coach in place first

Not sure we do need a 3rd star.

Look how well Atlanta and Phoenix have done this season workout that 3rd star.  Milwaukee have also been consistentl to strong despite not really having any big name stars behind Giannis.

Meanwhile Brooklyn and Philly (with their star studded lineups) are both one loss away from elimination.

I think people get too drawn in to the glitz and glamour.  A star studded team like GS / LA win a title and everybody stars assuming that's the only way.  But then those star studded teams are always extremely top heavy, and sometimes all it takes is one key injury and the season is over. 

Sometimes I think it might be better to have one superstar, one all-star, and quality depth - that way when one man goes down you have a better chance of the next guy stepping up and less drop off.

I am a bit confused why say Philly has a star studded lineup and Bucks don't. 76ers have two players on there roster that are in their prime and have made all star games (obviously howard was an all star like 6 years ago). The bucks have 3 guys in their prime that all made all star team...

Edit: I thought Holiday made the all star game recently, I guess he has not. So I would still say they are the same. I think everyone in world would prefer Holiday over Harris.

[Rondo9]

You don't need a 3rd star if your top dog is a recent MVP winner.

As good as Tatum is, he's not at MVP level yet, there's a good chance he'll never be at that level.

Seriously?

[Stig]

You don't need a 3rd star if your top dog is a recent MVP winner.

As good as Tatum is, he's not at MVP level yet, there's a good chance he'll never be at that level.

Seriously?

well the question mark on don't always need a 3rd star or Tatum may not be an MVP? anyway, yes seriously on both

[liam]

After we hang banner18 next year Al's contract is fully guaranteed, so the savings aren't as big as people are assuming.

Nice!

[Csfan1984]

Gave it a D. Sure the grade can change based on moves down the line but Kemba was the best player by miles and the team gave up a 1st in a very deep draft class. I don't care about Kemba's missed time he should come back better. Horford is horrible and overpaid was glad to see him leave. It's going to be a nightmare watching him miss games and disappear half the games he is in. I expect a state line of 9pts 7reb 3ast .8 blk a game with defense being spotty. Can't wait till they flip him or stretch him.

[Atzar]

We haven't even got a coach, so Al may not play under the new coach's system.

I think that this probably isn’t a major concern. Is there a coach in the league who couldn’t use Al Horford?

Also, I'm choosing to believe that Stevens is a reasonably intelligent individual and won't immediately hire a guy who can't coach our players.  It's not like we're out here just spinning a wheel and hoping it doesn't land on Rick Pitino again.  We actually have a choice in the matter.