How will the Celtics improve this off-season?

[nickagneta]

First off, I think a lot of what happened this year is due to a very short off-season. Tatum, Stevens and Celtic owner Steve Pagliuca have all linked the poor performance this year to that. I think it’s real as, of the 8 teams that were in the final 8 of the playoffs last year, only Utah and the Clippers have outperformed their records from last year. 3 of the 4 final teams have fallen off precipitously due to missed player games. A usual 5-6 month recuperation period was reduced to 2.5-3 month time frame. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. So I think more normal off-season period is going to help this team immensely.

Second, I think Ainge runs most of this team back. Stevens too. I don’t think Kemba, Smart, the Jays, Timelord, Fournier and Pritchard are going anywhere. I also don’t see Semi, Tacko, Waters or Edwards returning. Everyone else, the remaining TPE and our draft picks could be used as trade bait. I don’t see all of the remaining players (Thompson, Grant, Nesmith, Langford, Kornet and Parker) not being brought back, but I do think some will be gone in trades.

Third, the team will only have the non-taxpayer MLE to use in free agency. We have to remember that using the taxpayer MLE and the bi-annual exception hard caps teams, so neither will be used. Also not being used will be and sign and trades, for the same reason, the hard cap it causes.

As for the draft, I think if Ainge ends up deciding to keep Nesmith and Langford that the pick will be moved. I don’t see Danny wanting to add even more youth, other than maybe Yam Mader on a two way contract and another project guy they can throw into a two-way deal.

So what does he do? If Ainge moves Thompson, a player like Jakob Poetl could fit into the remaining TPE. Players like Nerlens Noel, Rishaun Holmes, Gorgui Dieng and Robin Lopez might be had for the taxpayer MLE. Some other interesting and attainable guys that could fit in the TPE include: Jeremy Lamb, Tomas Satoransky, George Hill, Delon Wright, JaMychal Green, Juancho Hernangomez, Justin Holiday and Zach Collins. A couple of interesting trade targets could be Thaddeus Young, Jonas Valanciunas (this probably means moving Timelord as he fits the Grizzlies timeline better than Jonas) and Danilo Gallinari.

If you see a trend in my suggestions it’s to add a veteran presence and some size. I think those are components this team needs if they keep their core.

Overall, I think the fastest way for this team to improve is for their core to be healthy, playing together and, for the youth, maturing their games. After that, it’s tinkering, adding some quality depth and hoping their two stars take another leap forward.

Let’s remember, Brown and Tatum will only be 25 and 24 years old next year. It took both MJ and LeBron until they were 27, just entering their prime, before they won their first titles, so expectations of a title next year should be set accordingly. I think it’s possible the Jay duo could win a title before reaching 27 years of age, but young stars that lead their teams to titles is a rare thing. It might not be until 2022-23 that we can see this team becoming a legit title contender.

Let's also remember that all this could be upended by ownership if they decide they don't want to pay a huge luxury tax bill. The team has made huge profits for close on two decades. This ownership group has seen their initial $360 million investment to buy the team blossom into the franchise now being worth $3.2 billion. They've made their money and said they would pay the tax for a contender, but how much are they willing to pay? I guess we will have to wait and see.

Great post.  Despite the disappointing mercurial season there’s still much to be hopeful for.  A good off-season with rest, keep the core, and have some improvement to the current roster would be great.

I wish I understood the bolded paragraph better in terms of actual luxury tax burden and owner mindset.  Owning a basketball team and being legit (believable) fans, you’d have to think the priority of this ownership group is winning. However commitment to shareholders would also seem to mean prioritizing profit. Obviously the two can go hand in hand much of the time but don’t always.  It would be frustrating nonetheless that a franchise that has been very profitable and that has grown a $billion in value in what 20 years (?) would be pulling purse strings too tightly. I’m not saying profit can ever be a non-consideration, but I hope the balance leans heavily to let’s get the right players to win another championship.

I think it might break this way.

If the team has to pay $0-$15 million in luxury tax, I don't think the team thinks twice about paying it.

If the tax comes in at $15-$30 million, I think ownership might give the team a chance to see if they could close the deal, but if they flounder early in the season, like this year, ownership could order Ainge to lose salary at the trade deadline.

Lastly, if it looks like the tax is over $30 million, ownership might have to be sold pretty heavily by Danny that the team can win it all, otherwise, they won't approve of that tax bill.

[Surferdad]

Other than Marcus Smart, I see a severe lack of leadership qualities in our best players.

Tatum is not a leader.  That lazy pass intercepted by Rozier shows he is not leader.  Great player yes, but not a leader.

Stevens is not a leader.  Great coach yes, but he has lost control of this team.

I think Ainge runs most of this team back. Stevens too.

 
I just don't see  that as a successful approach.

I see leadership in Marcus and somewhat with Kemba.  But I agree we need a Jay to step up. I’m encouraged by remembering Paul Pierce who grew significantly in leadership skills after his mid-twenties.

When do you think that is going to happen?  Why should we believe it is ever going to happen?  Look, I like Tatum as an offensive player.  He's the best to be drafted by the C's in a long time (perhaps since Al Jefferson).  However, I have no reason to believe he can be a leader like PP or KG.

[Roy H.]

Other than Marcus Smart, I see a severe lack of leadership qualities in our best players.

Tatum is not a leader.  That lazy pass intercepted by Rozier shows he is not leader.  Great player yes, but not a leader.

Stevens is not a leader.  Great coach yes, but he has lost control of this team.

I think Ainge runs most of this team back. Stevens too.

 
I just don't see  that as a successful approach.

I see leadership in Marcus and somewhat with Kemba.  But I agree we need a Jay to step up. I’m encouraged by remembering Paul Pierce who grew significantly in leadership skills after his mid-twenties.

When do you think that is going to happen?  Why should we believe it is ever going to happen?  Look, I like Tatum as an offensive player.  He's the best to be drafted by the C's in a long time (perhaps since Al Jefferson).  However, I have no reason to believe he can be a leader like PP or KG.

Isn’t Pierce a great example of a guy who grew into the role?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yroYIQiAQyI

[Big333223]

Maybe this is naive of me but it feels like there's plenty of talent here is Fournier re-signs and Timelord gets right. The core is still young. The oldest guy in the rotaion is Kemba and he'll only be 31.

I think another year under their belts, a training camp, and something more like a regular season, they could rebound a la what happened last season.

[Celtics2021]

I think the C’s improve this off-season by the work put in by the individual players to get better (both in terms of skill and physical health/durability).  I don’t see a significant roster change being possible that takes them dramatically in the right direction next year.  I do think the pieces are still there, especially given the age of our core, which for the most part should still be trending upwards or are at their peak.  But if not, then next year is the summer of change, not this one.

[Birdman]

Lonzo Ball be perfect on this team..

[Moranis]

First off, I think a lot of what happened this year is due to a very short off-season. Tatum, Stevens and Celtic owner Steve Pagliuca have all linked the poor performance this year to that. I think it’s real as, of the 8 teams that were in the final 8 of the playoffs last year, only Utah and the Clippers have outperformed their records from last year. 3 of the 4 final teams have fallen off precipitously due to missed player games. A usual 5-6 month recuperation period was reduced to 2.5-3 month time frame. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. So I think more normal off-season period is going to help this team immensely.

Second, I think Ainge runs most of this team back. Stevens too. I don’t think Kemba, Smart, the Jays, Timelord, Fournier and Pritchard are going anywhere. I also don’t see Semi, Tacko, Waters or Edwards returning. Everyone else, the remaining TPE and our draft picks could be used as trade bait. I don’t see all of the remaining players (Thompson, Grant, Nesmith, Langford, Kornet and Parker) not being brought back, but I do think some will be gone in trades.

Third, the team will only have the non-taxpayer MLE to use in free agency. We have to remember that using the taxpayer MLE and the bi-annual exception hard caps teams, so neither will be used. Also not being used will be and sign and trades, for the same reason, the hard cap it causes.

As for the draft, I think if Ainge ends up deciding to keep Nesmith and Langford that the pick will be moved. I don’t see Danny wanting to add even more youth, other than maybe Yam Mader on a two way contract and another project guy they can throw into a two-way deal.

So what does he do? If Ainge moves Thompson, a player like Jakob Poetl could fit into the remaining TPE. Players like Nerlens Noel, Rishaun Holmes, Gorgui Dieng and Robin Lopez might be had for the taxpayer MLE. Some other interesting and attainable guys that could fit in the TPE include: Jeremy Lamb, Tomas Satoransky, George Hill, Delon Wright, JaMychal Green, Juancho Hernangomez, Justin Holiday and Zach Collins. A couple of interesting trade targets could be Thaddeus Young, Jonas Valanciunas (this probably means moving Timelord as he fits the Grizzlies timeline better than Jonas) and Danilo Gallinari.

If you see a trend in my suggestions it’s to add a veteran presence and some size. I think those are components this team needs if they keep their core.

Overall, I think the fastest way for this team to improve is for their core to be healthy, playing together and, for the youth, maturing their games. After that, it’s tinkering, adding some quality depth and hoping their two stars take another leap forward.

Let’s remember, Brown and Tatum will only be 25 and 24 years old next year. It took both MJ and LeBron until they were 27, just entering their prime, before they won their first titles, so expectations of a title next year should be set accordingly. I think it’s possible the Jay duo could win a title before reaching 27 years of age, but young stars that lead their teams to titles is a rare thing. It might not be until 2022-23 that we can see this team becoming a legit title contender.

Let's also remember that all this could be upended by ownership if they decide they don't want to pay a huge luxury tax bill. The team has made huge profits for close on two decades. This ownership group has seen their initial $360 million investment to buy the team blossom into the franchise now being worth $3.2 billion. They've made their money and said they would pay the tax for a contender, but how much are they willing to pay? I guess we will have to wait and see.

Great post.  Despite the disappointing mercurial season there’s still much to be hopeful for.  A good off-season with rest, keep the core, and have some improvement to the current roster would be great.

I wish I understood the bolded paragraph better in terms of actual luxury tax burden and owner mindset.  Owning a basketball team and being legit (believable) fans, you’d have to think the priority of this ownership group is winning. However commitment to shareholders would also seem to mean prioritizing profit. Obviously the two can go hand in hand much of the time but don’t always.  It would be frustrating nonetheless that a franchise that has been very profitable and that has grown a $billion in value in what 20 years (?) would be pulling purse strings too tightly. I’m not saying profit can ever be a non-consideration, but I hope the balance leans heavily to let’s get the right players to win another championship.

I think it might break this way.

If the team has to pay $0-$15 million in luxury tax, I don't think the team thinks twice about paying it.

If the tax comes in at $15-$30 million, I think ownership might give the team a chance to see if they could close the deal, but if they flounder early in the season, like this year, ownership could order Ainge to lose salary at the trade deadline.

Lastly, if it looks like the tax is over $30 million, ownership might have to be sold pretty heavily by Danny that the team can win it all, otherwise, they won't approve of that tax bill.

If they basically bring the team back, they are probably paying over 30 million in luxury tax, especially if Tatum gets that All NBA Team nod again and gets the salary boost.  I mean they are basically at the tax and with Tatum at 25% with Walker, Tatum, Brown, Smart, Thompson, Langford, R. Williams, Nesmith, G. Williams, Pritchard, and Edwards.  That is just 11 people.  Parker has a non-guaranteed 2.2 million dollar contract which puts them over the tax (again with Tatum at 25% and not 30%).  Even if Fournier takes less than he is currently making, he is probably looking at 15 million (if not more).  Then you have the draft picks and other end of the bench guys whether that is bringing back Semi and/or Kornet, or not, that is salary.  So Boston by bringing back Fournier and Tatum getting the salary boost is probably looking at a salary in the 160's or at least 25 million over the tax line. 

25 million over the luxury tax, for a team that likely isn't a contender and doesn't really have a reasonable path to contention. 

That is why I think they are making several moves, either to really go for it, or to shed salary because what they are looking like currently isn't tenable.

[PhoSita]

If they bring back virtually the same team, including re-signing Fournier for what he's likely to command, then that means the owners are willing to pay $50+ million in luxury tax for a team that will probably be coming off a first round loss.

I believe the owners would be willing to pay a large luxury tax bill (not sure about how large) for a team with a chance to win a title.  Can you really say that a team coming off a first (maybe second) round exit is ready to make a title run?  Yes there are excuses for this season, but even with those excuses considered I think it's a stretch to see this group as a contender.

My belief is that the team is going to be forced to look at their options for moving off salary.  That could mean Kemba, or it could mean Smart (who will be in the last year of his deal) and Tristan Thompson.


I like Kemba, and he's looked a lot better when he's been able to rest.  I also think that the ceiling for this team is much lower without the healthy, productive version of Kemba we have seen at times this year.  Nonetheless, I think the best case for the off-season is probably that they trade Kemba to a team with cap space without having to give up assets to move his money or take back any big salaries.  Then they would be in a stronger position with respect to looking at trade options for Thompson. 

Worst case scenario is that they can't trade Kemba without giving up 1st round picks or taking back big salaries. This could then force them to let Fournier walk for nothing, or else use Smart or other assets to move Thompson.

I think there's a good chance the Celtics head into next season with mostly the same team, minus one or two of the players who are currently key parts of the rotation, and despite that loss are still very close to the luxury tax line and have little flexibility to add talent.


In this context, the fact that neither Nesmith nor Langford has really shown much so far really hurts.  The Celtics can't head into next season realistically expecting to rely on either of those guys to be contributing parts of the rotation -- not if the Celts want to be more competitive next year than they were this season.  Similarly, the Celts can't really hope to use either of those players as significant trade assets.


So to answer your question --- how will the Celtics improve this off-season -- I'm really not sure.

I think coming back with Tatum, Brown, Rob Williams, Pritchard, and Fournier all healthy will make a difference. 

Beyond that, I think the focus would be on finding ways to exchange the younger cheap players on the back end of the roster (e.g. Carsen, Grant, Nesmith, Langford, etc) for more experienced cheap players (similar to what they did bringing in Theis and Wanamaker a couple years ago).

Parker seems like a decent reclamation project and he might be a fit here next season.  Luke Kornet has impressed me as a defender and seems like he has upside as a 10-15 minute rotation staple who gives you big man defense and spreads the floor a bit.  Danny needs to find more guys like that who can play and have at least a couple of NBA level skills yet cost $2 million or less.


Getting the main guys healthy, having a consistent top group of 5-7 players who are available to play more often than not, and switching out some younger players in the back half of the roster for more polished, established professionals would make a difference, I think.

[Moranis]

My wacky will never happen 3-team trade

Boston - Beverley, Zubac, Wiggins, Min 1st (from GS)
Los Angeles - Walker, Thompson
Golden State - Morris, Smart, G. Williams, Bos 1st

Shaves salary from the C's will giving the team 2 long term potential building blocks in Zubac and the high draft pick.  LA and GS load up for title runs this year and in the case of GS shed Wiggins off their books (it does cost them a high pick).

[PhoSita]

My wacky will never happen 3-team trade

Boston - Beverley, Zubac, Wiggins, Min 1st (from GS)
Los Angeles - Walker, Thompson
Golden State - Morris, Smart, G. Williams, Bos 1st

Shaves salary from the C's will giving the team 2 long term potential building blocks in Zubac and the high draft pick.  LA and GS load up for title runs this year and in the case of GS shed Wiggins off their books (it does cost them a high pick).

Is Wiggins an expiring?  How much salary are the Celts shedding with this trade?  I wouldn't move Smart in a deal like this unless it's creating a large amount of flexibility salary-wise.

I'm really not a Wiggins fan and I don't like the idea of having Brown, Tatum, Wiggins, and Fournier in the wing rotation while still having Langford and Nesmith on the roster.  Basically guarantees those guys get little to no playing time next year.

But in theory the basic idea of your trade makes sense to me, even though it hurts to imagine trading Kemba and Smart without getting back even one player who's likely to be more than a decent role player long term.  I like Zubac but he's just a nice player, nothing more.


Still, given the financials, painful decisions are pretty much required.  If the Celts can move salary without having to treat next season like a soft-reset / bridge year, that would have to be seen as a win.

[celticsclay]

My wacky will never happen 3-team trade

Boston - Beverley, Zubac, Wiggins, Min 1st (from GS)
Los Angeles - Walker, Thompson
Golden State - Morris, Smart, G. Williams, Bos 1st

Shaves salary from the C's will giving the team 2 long term potential building blocks in Zubac and the high draft pick.  LA and GS load up for title runs this year and in the case of GS shed Wiggins off their books (it does cost them a high pick).

Is Wiggins an expiring?  How much salary are the Celts shedding with this trade?  I wouldn't move Smart in a deal like this unless it's creating a large amount of flexibility salary-wise.

I'm really not a Wiggins fan and I don't like the idea of having Brown, Tatum, Wiggins, and Fournier in the wing rotation while still having Langford and Nesmith on the roster.  Basically guarantees those guys get little to no playing time next year.

But in theory the basic idea of your trade makes sense to me, even though it hurts to imagine trading Kemba and Smart without getting back even one player who's likely to be more than a decent role player long term.  I like Zubac but he's just a nice player, nothing more.


Still, given the financials, painful decisions are pretty much required.  If the Celts can move salary without having to treat next season like a soft-reset / bridge year, that would have to be seen as a win.

Really scratching my head at zubac as a building block...

[PhoSita]

Zubac is not a building block, but he's a nice role player.  He can give you a solid 20 minutes a night at center.  If the Celts had him and Rob manning the 5 with Kornet as a third stringer I would feel pretty good about that part of the rotation.

[Moranis]

My wacky will never happen 3-team trade

Boston - Beverley, Zubac, Wiggins, Min 1st (from GS)
Los Angeles - Walker, Thompson
Golden State - Morris, Smart, G. Williams, Bos 1st

Shaves salary from the C's will giving the team 2 long term potential building blocks in Zubac and the high draft pick.  LA and GS load up for title runs this year and in the case of GS shed Wiggins off their books (it does cost them a high pick).

Is Wiggins an expiring?  How much salary are the Celts shedding with this trade?  I wouldn't move Smart in a deal like this unless it's creating a large amount of flexibility salary-wise.

I'm really not a Wiggins fan and I don't like the idea of having Brown, Tatum, Wiggins, and Fournier in the wing rotation while still having Langford and Nesmith on the roster.  Basically guarantees those guys get little to no playing time next year.

But in theory the basic idea of your trade makes sense to me, even though it hurts to imagine trading Kemba and Smart without getting back even one player who's likely to be more than a decent role player long term.  I like Zubac but he's just a nice player, nothing more.


Still, given the financials, painful decisions are pretty much required.  If the Celts can move salary without having to treat next season like a soft-reset / bridge year, that would have to be seen as a win.

Wiggins is not expiring, which is why GS would have to attach a top 5ish pick to move off him, which is the point of the trade (i.e. acquiring that Minnesota pick - you only do the trade if the pick transfers to GS).  That trade would shave about 10 million off the salary next year, which is huge given what Boston's tax bill will be. 

As for Zubac, I think he can be a quality starting center and unlike Williams, he has actually been healthy and thus can be relied on game in and game out.  Either way, I think a Williams/Zubac center rotation would be pretty darn good going forward. 

The draft pick is someone like Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Scottie Barnes, etc. or maybe Jalen Suggs drops and you end up getting him as the PG of the future.  That gives Boston a real potential 3rd player around Tatum/Brown going forward.  That is how Boston ends up competing for a title with those two, adding that 3rd player and the way to do that is diminishing fairly quickly.  This is one path to actually doing it.

BTW, the trade works without LA (basically Wiggins, pick for Smart, Thompson, G. Williams, pick) but that adds salary to Boston which obviously isn't a great thing to do, though I'd still do it to get the top 5ish pick (and you could still move off of walker at some point if you needed to).

[slamtheking]

My wacky will never happen 3-team trade

Boston - Beverley, Zubac, Wiggins, Min 1st (from GS)
Los Angeles - Walker, Thompson
Golden State - Morris, Smart, G. Williams, Bos 1st

Shaves salary from the C's will giving the team 2 long term potential building blocks in Zubac and the high draft pick.  LA and GS load up for title runs this year and in the case of GS shed Wiggins off their books (it does cost them a high pick).

Is Wiggins an expiring?  How much salary are the Celts shedding with this trade?  I wouldn't move Smart in a deal like this unless it's creating a large amount of flexibility salary-wise.

I'm really not a Wiggins fan and I don't like the idea of having Brown, Tatum, Wiggins, and Fournier in the wing rotation while still having Langford and Nesmith on the roster.  Basically guarantees those guys get little to no playing time next year.

But in theory the basic idea of your trade makes sense to me, even though it hurts to imagine trading Kemba and Smart without getting back even one player who's likely to be more than a decent role player long term.  I like Zubac but he's just a nice player, nothing more.


Still, given the financials, painful decisions are pretty much required.  If the Celts can move salary without having to treat next season like a soft-reset / bridge year, that would have to be seen as a win.

Wiggins is not expiring, which is why GS would have to attach a top 5ish pick to move off him, which is the point of the trade (i.e. acquiring that Minnesota pick - you only do the trade if the pick transfers to GS).  That trade would shave about 10 million off the salary next year, which is huge given what Boston's tax bill will be. 

As for Zubac, I think he can be a quality starting center and unlike Williams, he has actually been healthy and thus can be relied on game in and game out.  Either way, I think a Williams/Zubac center rotation would be pretty darn good going forward. 

The draft pick is someone like Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Scottie Barnes, etc. or maybe Jalen Suggs drops and you end up getting him as the PG of the future.  That gives Boston a real potential 3rd player around Tatum/Brown going forward.  That is how Boston ends up competing for a title with those two, adding that 3rd player and the way to do that is diminishing fairly quickly.  This is one path to actually doing it.

BTW, the trade works without LA (basically Wiggins, pick for Smart, Thompson, G. Williams, pick) but that adds salary to Boston which obviously isn't a great thing to do, though I'd still do it to get the top 5ish pick (and you could still move off of walker at some point if you needed to).

still not a fan of that first option.  also, only difference between that and the second is Kemba for Zubac/Beverly which I think is a bit of a short change for the C's. 

I get the allure of that Minny pick but both options add overpriced clutter to the wing position with Wiggins.  not against moving Kemba and/or Smart but if we do we need to get a better return at PG than Beverly.  would hate to burn that top pick on a PG when when our front court (PF and Center) is still a real issue and this draft may offer an answer to that longterm

[PhoSita]

Wiggins is not expiring, which is why GS would have to attach a top 5ish pick to move off him, which is the point of the trade (i.e. acquiring that Minnesota pick - you only do the trade if the pick transfers to GS).  That trade would shave about 10 million off the salary next year, which is huge given what Boston's tax bill will be. 

Shaving 10 million off salary next year means you're still over the cap and just about 10-12 under the luxury tax.

Is that worth adding multiple years of Wiggins at $20 million (a mediocre starting wing his whole career) while losing Smart, Kemba, and Thompson?

I almost don't care what else I'm getting, that seems like bad math.


I'd rather give up a 1st round pick to move Kemba to a team with cap space and get nothing else back.


Maybe if you're getting a top 10 pick it's all worth it, but I have my doubts.  The time to try to win is right now, while Tatum and Brown have multiple seasons left.  Trying to upgrade talent around them via the draft means you're aiming for your roster to peak 2-3 seasons from now, when Tatum and Brown are getting dangerously close to UFA.  I don't like that.

The Celts are in a precarious position right now. They have two young stars who have gotten paid and are on their second contracts. This season has been rendered a bridge year / learning experience due to various factors, most of which were outside the teams control.  Still, they have just a few seasons left with both of their main guys under contract. In couple years Jaylen Brown will be entering the final season of his deal.  That's when we start having uncomfortable conversations about Jaylen's pending FA unless the team is coming off successful playoff runs.

When you're in cap hell and your current roster isn't good enough, the easiest way to handle that is to take a step back for a year or two and try to reset with a more affordable / balanced supporting cast.

The Celtics don't really have the luxury of doing that gradually, nor do they have the luxury of doing it via the draft.  For one thing the roster is already really young.  For another, it's well established that young players don't help you win consistently until they've been in the league a couple seasons. 

If the Celts have to wait a few years to be in a really good position to contend again, they're going to be in a situation where they have just one year before one of their stars is set to hit UFA.  We've seen in the past that going all-in on one season like that is a bad idea.