Last Year to This Year -- What Changed?

[PhoSita]

Here at end of March 2021, the Celtics are below .500, and they're just not a very good team.

Overall the Celtics are 12th in offense (111.1 ORTG) and 22nd in defense (110.6 DRTG).

That's a frankly astounding drop from last season.  Not only are they significantly worse offensively compared to the 5th best offense in the league last season (110.4 ORTG), but their defense has gone from elite to just plain bad.  Last season the Celtics had the 4th best defense in the league (104.5 DRTG).

Could Gordon Hayward have made this big a difference?  Losing him certainly hurt, but I don't think it really explains it.  Hayward basically didn't play in the playoffs last year, and yet the Celts had a very similar ORTG (108.5, 7th out of 16) and DRTG (103.5, 2nd out of 16) during that run.

So what gives?

I decided to look at a couple of metrics to see how things have shifted.  Neither of these metrics is perfect, but it at least gives some sense of what's going on.


RPM

This stat attempts to adjust for circumstances while providing an idea of the impact a player makes while he's on the floor, positive or negative.



(bolded names no longer on the team)

Things that jump out:

- More players in the red than in the green.  Not a shock.  But that was true last year as well.  This is a top heavy roster.  Last year that didn't matter so much.  Maybe it just hurts them a lot more this year because Tatum, Kemba, and Smart have been worse.

- Daniel Theis has been much less helpful this year than last, but has still been a consistently useful player for the team.  Tough loss.  By comparison, Tristan Thompson and Rob Williams both look bad by this metric.  Although it's worth noting TT has been much worse for the Celts than he was on the Cavs, despite the fact that the Cavs were a deep lottery team.

- As you'll see below, Rob Williams is the player on the team with the biggest gap between production and positive impact per RPM.  I think that should tell you something about why he's had difficulty getting so many minutes despite looking exciting and causing fans to clamor for him.  Rob makes a lot of highlight plays but he also is still really raw.  Daniel Theis is sort of the opposite.  Polished and useful but limited.

- Fournier and Kornet seem like they ought to be helpful.

- Brown and Tatum are clearly the best players on the team -- no surprise.  Brown has taken a leap, as you'd expect, while Tatum is not quite as good as last year.  That seems right as well.

- Kemba actually is a little bit better in this metric than last year, which is surprising, but shows you his importance to the way the roster is constructed.  Marcus is a positive, but worse this year than last; again not a surprise.

- One surprise here is Carsen Edwards solidly in the positive.  I guess that suggests (1) small sample and (2) shooting and quickness are things much needed in the rotation.

- Grant Williams is bad.  I think he looks better than he is.  He seems to do the right things on the floor but the team seems to be consistently worse with him out there.  I'm growing more and more negative about Grant's chances of being a contributor.

- Semi is bad as well, although to some extent I wonder if that's because he's backing up the best player on the team (though RPM is meant to control for that).

- The backup point guard situation seems bad.  Backup guards often look bad in this metric, but the Celts really don't have a guard who is giving them a lot of positive value by this metric.

- Luke Kornet as consistently looked good by this metric over his career, and he's already seemed like a useful player for the Celtics.  Hopefully that continues.  Maybe he can stick around in a reserve role for minimum money.


Win Shares

This metric is supposed to measure productiveness as a contribution to winning.  Players on winning teams garner more win shares, but it's not as straightforward as that.  Good players on bad teams can get a lot of win shares, and the inverse is true as well.  This metric tends to favor big men and penalize guards due to rebounds and field goal percentage, but it's still useful.



Similar picture here.

- Theis was a big positive last year, less so this year.  But still a tough loss.

- Walker looks much worse this year than last by this metric, as you would expect.  He's been far less productive overall.

- In general there's a drop-off across the board.

- The hope should be that losing Theis and replacing him with Fournier is a net positive because Rob Williams plays more minutes and thereby replaces Theis's production and then some.

- As I look at both of these lists I really think that the Grant - Semi - Nesmith - Langford backup wing/forward situation is the soft, undercooked part of the rotation that is really undermining things.  You wouldn't think that would matter given that the best players on the team play at those spots and get a lot of minutes.  But this roster and the team's system are constructed to emphasize wing play.  They just need more productive, reliable wings, period.  Again, you gotta hope Fournier helps here and that Langford comes back and shows something.  Grant, Semi, Nesmith -- I'm not expecting anything positive from these guys at this point, to be frank.

- I think it's interesting that the WS based on previous season production suggest about 41 wins and that's where the team seems headed (82 game pace).  With that said, I took a look at this for the past few seasons, and there has been a consistent trend before this year of the Celtics ending up with a good number of wins over and above the previous season win shares of the players on the roster. 

- For example, heading into the 2020 season, the cumulative WS of the players from the prior season was 37, but the team ended up winning 48 games, which was a 55 win pace in a shortened season.  Similarly, in 2018 there were 39.1 returning WS on the roster, and the team ended up winning 55 games.  Point being that fans who expected the Celtics to win 50-55 games despite not seeming to have that many wins on the roster were not wishcasting or looking at things with green goggles.  They were basing their expectations on previous performance.



Ultimately, I still can't explain the huge drop-off, especially in defensive production.  How do you go from top 5 to bottom 10 on defense despite the fact that Enes Kanter isn't in your rotation anymore?

Injuries to the best players, and a general drop in production across the board, help to explain it.  But it's hard to escape the thought that perhaps the team is just less focused, less motivated, less "into it" this year.


My theory, which is totally not based on any evidence and is mostly just projection:

Due to the weirdness of this season and everything going on in the world of the past year, it is harder for everyone to be as focused and serious about their work.  We've all had our priorities jostled and challenged.  It's a lot easier to be distracted and to feel like maybe what seemed really important a year or two ago isn't as vital now. 

I suspect that dynamic has affected some players more than others.  I suspect for some players, it is harder than ever to see basketball as "serious business" instead of a game that people play and watch for entertainment. 

Maybe the Celtics have been hit by that dynamic harder than other teams.  Maybe the youth of the roster is a factor there.

The only evidence I really have is that the Celts have dropped off on defense much more than on offense.  Defense seems like more of a focus / effort area than offense, where you can get by on skill and talent.

But really, I don't know. 

[SHAQATTACK]

we had IT and Irving who could dominate games take over like Pierce . 

Irving was great for awhile ....then he stopped caring about being on Boston

losing Hayward , Irving , Horford and Kemba s injuries has sucked the juice out of the team.

Brown and Tatum are not enough .

I think to continue the win rate ,  we needed to get Harden while the getting was good ,  he would have help recruit some of the older stars all the other teams have gobbled up. 

now we are in a trial and error ,  get this guy or that ,  people who don’t move the needle or not enough to be worth the trades .

I think the rest of the team sees this ,  they need help ....LOL like Lebron is always complaining , but he always gets the young super star he needs ....an Irving or AD to help his cause

Danny needs to get a solid vet star give the team hope or possibly see current playe4s loose interest on staying in Boston.

Quit protecting CBS from vocal superstars ....get who you need to win titles. 

Gotta keep trying ,  that means trading the Al Jefferson you need to get a top player or sit around and watch every other team try.

[PhoSita]

we had IT and Irving who could dominate games take over like Pierce . 

Irving was great for awhile ....then he stopped caring about being on Boston

losing Hayward , Irving , Horford and Kemba s injuries has sucked the juice out of the team.

Brown and Tatum are not enough .

I think to continue the win rate ,  we needed to get Harden while the getting was good ,  he would have help recruit some of the older stars all the other teams have gobbled up. 

now we are in a trial and error ,  get this guy or that ,  people who don’t move the needle or not enough to be worth the trades .

I think the rest of the team sees this ,  they need help ....LOL like Lebron is always complaining , but he always gets the young super star he needs ....an Irving or AD to help his cause

Danny needs to get a solid vet star give the team hope or possibly see current playe4s loose interest on staying in Boston.

Quit protecting CBS from vocal superstars ....get who you need to win titles. 

Gotta keep trying ,  that means trading the Al Jefferson you need to get a top player or sit around and watch every other team try.

So you think they were so demoralized by the way last season ended that they lost faith that they had enough talent at the top of the roster to bother competing hard on defense every night?

[footey]

I can't explain the regular season differential.  Need to study the ## more. 

As far as last year's playoffs run to the ECF, I think we tend to exaggerate how well we did in the bubble.  Our first round opponent was without their 2nd best player. If Simmons had suited up, even if we had Gordon (who did not play well vs Sixers during regular season IIRC), I think that would have been a much closer series.  Regarding Toronto, we just match up well against those guys for some reason (look at this season, where we continue to own them, even though everyone else owns us); even so, it went 7 tough games. Versus a pretty average Heat team, we lost in 6 games. 

[nickagneta]

Win Shares, as you said, are cumulative, so maybe you want to look at win share per 48 minutes instead.

[footey]

TP, PhoSita, this is very much appreciated analysis.  I want to look at it some more before responding more in depth.

[Roy H.]

Great post.

I understand the offensive decline. A lot of that data was before Kemba aggravated his injury, and was playing like an all NBA point guard. Hayward was playing like an all-star as well.  The pieces to an elite offense have been downgraded.

It’s the defensive decline that is shocking. Other than laziness and lack of focus, I just don’t know how you account for that.

[knuckleballer]

Tatum and Brown are both great finishers at the rim and shooting.  Neither are great at handling the ball and creating for others. 

I think losing Hayward has made a huge difference (and he wasn’t replaced.)  He was a great secondary ball handler and distributor.  He kept the ball moving whether by quickly passing or dribbling around the court and driving and kicking the ball out.  He also had good size.

This year we’re also seeing a lot of two center lineups and two six foot guard lineups.  Hopefully, Fournier can alleviate these problems.

[mobilija]

Thanks for the not Hot Take! TP Phosita.

I love how you give us the metrics, analyze it a bit then....conclusion is about feelings. i think that's accurate and, beyond the losses, is what is so frustrating about the season. It's not rationally or analytically explainable.

The team clearly still needs a few depth pieces, with out JB last nite our lack of talent compared to the Pelicans was obvious. Also, Our young players, including our stars, need to grow and become consistent. But mostly I think this team needs a long break and a reset. I think they're still trying, but they're fried, emotionally and maybe physically drained.

[Who]

- Kemba actually is a little bit better in this metric than last year, which is surprising, but shows you his importance to the way the roster is constructed.  Marcus is a positive, but worse this year than last; again not a surprise.

I feel like the most under-rated / under-valued part of what Kemba brings to this team is his speed. Not necessarily playing at a faster tempo but that threat of taking his man off the dribble an driving the ball down the throat of the defense.

Speed and dribble penetration are not highly enough valued on here. The focus is always more on size and defense. But the league today is more offensive orientated and speed, ball-handling and outside shooting are integral.

This is the main reason I do not want Smart as our starting PG and prefer him as a SG than PG because you can put a more dynamic ball-handler out there instead. And why I prefer Jaylen & Tatum as forwards (SF & PF) than wings (SG & SF) because they allow you to put another more dynamic shot-maker / ball-handler at SG (a role Fournier can fill - although I would've preferred a more dynamic outside shooter like Buddy Hield) vs a bigger more static big forward.


Beyond the scoring of Kemba, it is the speed and ball-handling that lifts our team's offense and it is undervalued. 


Great post by the way. TP.

[PhoSita]

Win Shares, as you said, are cumulative, so maybe you want to look at win share per 48 minutes instead.

You're right that the numbers I listed for WS are only for the season to date.  I could have projected it out for a full season.  I think I accounted for that in my takeaways though.  Even if you account for the fact that the players haven't played a full season, most of the guys on the team have had a drop-off, with the main exception being Brown.

[ETNCeltics]

Re: Tatum, I think the pressure of being considered an elite player may have weighed on him for the first part of the season. 2nd half of last season, he went from the promising young player to superstar dropping 40 against Lebron & AD and he's viewed differently. No doubt that weighs on a kid who was 22 coming into this season.

Then he gets covid,  and it seemed to really slow him for a few weeks. But going back 11 games, he's been much more efficient, shooting 50%. He's rounding back into the player he was in the playoffs last year.

Of course, we've only seen modest (if that) improvement in the team as Tatum has gotten better. IMO, something is amiss in the locker room. I don't know what or why, there doesn't seem to be a lot of selfishness, doesn't appear to be any friction between Tatum and Brown on the surface, but something is off. There was a rumor a few weeks ago that trouble traces back to Thompson. If that were truly the case, I'd rather the Celts just shut him down, and evidently it's anything goes with the NBA when it comes to that sort of thing now.

[PhoSita]

- Kemba actually is a little bit better in this metric than last year, which is surprising, but shows you his importance to the way the roster is constructed.  Marcus is a positive, but worse this year than last; again not a surprise.

I feel like the most under-rated / under-valued part of what Kemba brings to this team is his speed. Not necessarily playing at a faster tempo but that threat of taking his man off the dribble an driving the ball down the throat of the defense.

Speed and dribble penetration are not highly enough valued on here. The focus is always more on size and defense. But the league today is more offensive orientated and speed, ball-handling and outside shooting are integral.

This is the main reason I do not want Smart as our starting PG and prefer him as a SG than PG because you can put a more dynamic ball-handler out there instead. And why I prefer Jaylen & Tatum as forwards (SF & PF) than wings (SG & SF) because they allow you to put another more dynamic shot-maker / ball-handler at SG (a role Fournier can fill) vs a bigger more static big forward.


Beyond the scoring of Kemba, it is the speed and ball-handling that lifts our team's offense and it is undervalued. 


Great post by the way. TP.

I think this is a good frame for trying to suss out why things are so much worse this year.

Shifting Tatum and Brown from PF/SF to SF/SG, while spending a lot of minutes with two traditional bigs on the floor, probably has a lot to do with why the team is so much worse defensively.

To put it simply, the Celts have played with lineups that are on balance slower and less switchable than they have in the past.  To make matters worse, when they do play more perimeter oriented lineups, they have to lean on guys like Grant, Semi, and Nesmith, who are undersized for the 3/4 spots and are generally not very productive or especially impactful.


Add that to missing Marcus for a big part of the season and then getting a diminished version of Marcus once he came back, considering the fact that Marcus is probably the best defender on the team, also helps to explain the defensive drop off.

[PhoSita]

Thanks for the not Hot Take! TP Phosita.

I love how you give us the metrics, analyze it a bit then....conclusion is about feelings. i think that's accurate and, beyond the losses, is what is so frustrating about the season. It's not rationally or analytically explainable.

The team clearly still needs a few depth pieces, with out JB last nite our lack of talent compared to the Pelicans was obvious. Also, Our young players, including our stars, need to grow and become consistent. But mostly I think this team needs a long break and a reset. I think they're still trying, but they're fried, emotionally and maybe physically drained.

LOL to be honest I sat down to put this together and hoped there would be a clear takeaway to offer, but there really isn't.  So yeah, I ended up just kind of throwing up my hands and taking a stab in the dark based on my emotional perception of what's going on.


That's how it goes sometimes, I guess.  There's not always a clear answer for what's going wrong.  I think that's as good an explanation as any for why this season has been so frustrating and why fans in general are so frustrated / anxious.  It's hard to specifically explain why the team isn't as good.

[nickagneta]

I think the intangibles of this crazy season are playing a major factor in everything.

No practices, limited training camp and preseason, injuries, lost games due to Covid, Covid protocols that restrict players on the road, the condensed season and, I think, maybe most importantly, the very fast turnaround from last year's playoffs. I don't think it a coincidence that all 4 teams that were in last year's conference finals are all playing below last year's performances, in the case of LA, Boston and Miami, well below last year's performances.