Last Year to This Year -- What Changed?

[Moranis]

I think some of it was Boston has been playing above its station for awhile, so there is some regression to the mean.  Boston doesn't really have the talent to be a 3 ECF in 4 year type team.  That said, I do think a bigger reason is quite simply the Eastern Conference is a lot deeper and better than it has been in years past.  There are 3 teams that can legitimately win the title (last year there really was only Milwaukee).  After those 3 teams there are 3 teams, that if everything broke well with match-ups and what not could make the ECF (Bos, Ind, Mia - yes even indiana despite their worse start than boston).  But the real difference is the handful of teams in the middle.  They are just flat out better than their equivalent teams of the last few years (Atl, Cha, NY), plus you still have teams that have talent that haven't quite put it together this year (Tor, Was).  The Cavs and Bulls are very young, but talented, so they can have games where they look awesome even if they can't string it together for very long.  The Magic have (or had) a lot of veteran depth.  Detroit really is the only truly bad team in the conference and even they have Grant who can have a monster game.  When the competition improves, even if you get better, you can sometimes have lesser results.  And Boston isn't actually better so of course when everyone around you gets better you are going to look a lot worse.

[JBcat]

I think the intangibles of this crazy season are playing a major factor in everything.

No practices, limited training camp and preseason, injuries, lost games due to Covid, Covid protocols that restrict players on the road, the condensed season and, I think, maybe most importantly, the very fast turnaround from last year's playoffs. I don't think it a coincidence that all 4 teams that were in last year's conference finals are all playing below last year's performances, in the case of LA, Boston and Miami, well below last year's performances.

I disagree somewhat the short turnaround is a big reason why.  My reasoning is Tatum and Brown started off on fire to start the season.   So it didn’t seem to affect them much at all.  Maybe Theis and Smart whose production had gone down somewhat but not Tatum and Brown.


I think these are reasons:

No Kemba for a while to start the season, and when he returned not quite the same player as last season.
No Gordon obviously.
The pre and post Covid numbers for Tatum are striking, and it took him a long while to get back to normal.
Brown’s newfound tendinitis seems to have affected him some games since starting the season on fire.
Maybe the quick turnaround affected Theis and Smart, but I didn’t see it happening with others.
Smart out for a while with an injury, and doesn’t seem quite the same.
Thompson starting the season injured, then taking him a while to finally start playing well only to be out again due to Covid protocols.

Last and definitely not least. Up until a few days ago we had tied with 2 other teams for the most road games in the league (25).  The schedule has been brutal.  Luckily the schedule will be much kinder to us the rest of the way while having the addition of Fournier on the team.

[PhoSita]

I think some of it was Boston has been playing above its station for awhile, so there is some regression to the mean.  Boston doesn't really have the talent to be a 3 ECF in 4 year type team.  That said, I do think a bigger reason is quite simply the Eastern Conference is a lot deeper and better than it has been in years past.  There are 3 teams that can legitimately win the title (last year there really was only Milwaukee).  After those 3 teams there are 3 teams, that if everything broke well with match-ups and what not could make the ECF (Bos, Ind, Mia - yes even indiana despite their worse start than boston).  But the real difference is the handful of teams in the middle.  They are just flat out better than their equivalent teams of the last few years (Atl, Cha, NY), plus you still have teams that have talent that haven't quite put it together this year (Tor, Was).  The Cavs and Bulls are very young, but talented, so they can have games where they look awesome even if they can't string it together for very long.  The Magic have (or had) a lot of veteran depth.  Detroit really is the only truly bad team in the conference and even they have Grant who can have a monster game.  When the competition improves, even if you get better, you can sometimes have lesser results.  And Boston isn't actually better so of course when everyone around you gets better you are going to look a lot worse.

"They were never actually that good and everybody else got better while they got a bit worse" doesn't come close to explaining an almost complete reversal in terms of what the team was actually good at.

We have several years of evidence that the Celtics are an elite defensive team.  The roster has changed a lot over the last few years, but the consistent characteristic of this team is that they've been a top 5-10 defense.
 Most people assumed that with Kemba missing time, the Celts would still be very good on defense (maybe a little better), but that they would struggle to score.

Instead, the Celts are a bit worse offensively, as you would expect, but not as bad as many feared.  On defense, they've gone from elite to just plain bad.

"They were pretenders from the start" is an explanation that requires one to assume that multiple seasons of evidence really meant nothing. 

The question then would be "Well how did they play so far above their talent level in the past, if they aren't able to do so now?"

[nickagneta]

I think the intangibles of this crazy season are playing a major factor in everything.

No practices, limited training camp and preseason, injuries, lost games due to Covid, Covid protocols that restrict players on the road, the condensed season and, I think, maybe most importantly, the very fast turnaround from last year's playoffs. I don't think it a coincidence that all 4 teams that were in last year's conference finals are all playing below last year's performances, in the case of LA, Boston and Miami, well below last year's performances.

I disagree somewhat the short turnaround is a big reason why.  My reasoning is Tatum and Brown started off on fire to start the season.   So it didn’t seem to affect them much at all.  Maybe Theis and Smart whose production had gone down somewhat but not Tatum and Brown.


I think these are reasons:

No Kemba for a while to start the season, and when he returned not quite the same player as last season.
No Gordon obviously.
The pre and post Covid numbers for Tatum are striking, and it took him a long while to get back to normal.
Brown’s newfound tendinitis seems to have affected him some games since starting the season on fire.
Maybe the quick turnaround affected Theis and Smart, but I didn’t see it happening with others.
Smart out for a while with an injury, and doesn’t seem quite the same.
Thompson starting the season injured, then taking him a while to finally start playing well only to be out again due to Covid protocols.

Last and definitely not least. Up until a few days ago we had tied with 2 other teams for the most road games in the league (25).  The schedule has been brutal.  Luckily the schedule will be much kinder to us the rest of the way while having the addition of Fournier on the team.

I think the logic that the short turnaround wasn't a factor because some guys started hot is very flawed.

The short turnaround might not show up in play right away. I think the lack of recuperative time takes more of a cumulative effect as the season progresses. Smaller issues from last year suddenly become more acute this season due to lack of off-season rest.

Kemba obviously didn't get enough recuperation in the shortened off-season. A normal off-season probably sees him missing no games and not coming in stone cold.

Brown's tendonitis may be due to lack of rest time as he has occasionally had the issue previously. Perhaps more time off causes the issue not to flare up.

Was Smart's calf issue due to not enough off-season down time and him pushing himself too much this season?

Those are three of the team's most important players. Then add in the mental stress of having been isolated so long in the bubble and mentally recovering from that stress.

It all adds up and as this season has progressed, the team's lack of energy is very apparent. Why? I think it's because they are just exhausted, physically and mentally, and the lack of down time in the off-season is a direct cause of those things.

[NKY fan]

I think people have unrealistic views of the talent level of this team.
Theis who was somewhere in the 3-5 best player on our team range returned laughable haul at the trade deadline and he was on very team friendly contract.

It was a last second trade made to avoid the luxury tax, and the other team knew. Never gonna get a fair value return in that situation.

Theis was also a FA after the season. You never get near full value for a player who may well end up being a rental.

We got Fournier for two second-rounders. Didn't have much to do with his production.

So that means we overpaid for Fournier - he is also a FA and makes $12M more than Theis while being an average to below average starter like Theis (though at a more in demand position)

Anyway my point was that our talent level is not as good as most think. 3-5th best player on ORL brings in 2 second rounders while being overpaid // 3-5th best player on BOS (while being underpaid) brings in 2 tall guys with cool names.
Orlando is pretty bad this year and has been average for a while prior to this season ... while we are supposed to be a talented team.

[nickagneta]

I think people have unrealistic views of the talent level of this team.
Theis who was somewhere in the 3-5 best player on our team range returned laughable haul at the trade deadline and he was on very team friendly contract.

It was a last second trade made to avoid the luxury tax, and the other team knew. Never gonna get a fair value return in that situation.

Theis was also a FA after the season. You never get near full value for a player who may well end up being a rental.

We got Fournier for two second-rounders. Didn't have much to do with his production.

So that means we overpaid for Fournier - he is also a FA and makes $12M more than Theis while being an average to below average starter like Theis (though at a more in demand position)

Anyway my point was that our talent level is not as good as most think. 3-5th best player on ORL brings in 2 second rounders while being overpaid // 3-5th best player on BOS (while being underpaid) brings in 2 tall guys with cool names.
Orlando is pretty bad this year and has been average for a while prior to this season ... while we are supposed to be a talented team.

A starter who scores 20 points per game and plays average defense is a average to below average starter?

That is a massive stretch unless the guy is a cancer or a massive black hole that tries to get his points outside the flow of the offense. Fournier is neither.

Ainge got a good, youngish, talented player that is a proven scorer for two second round picks and Jeff Teague's 35 year old, well below starter level play. That's a great deal.

The difference between the two deals was leverage.

In the Fournier deal, Boston had it because Orlando wanted to get anything they could for Fournier because they weren't bringing him back and didn't want to add salary beyond this year, so they took the $17 million TPE.

In the Theis deal, Boston didn't have the leverage, like Orlando with Fournier, Boston had decided to move on from Theis and wasn't bring him back, so Ainge made a deal to get two bigs he was interested in to give them an audition to see if Ainge would bring either back while simultaneously assuring that the team stay below the tax line this year.

[PhoSita]

So that means we overpaid for Fournier - he is also a FA and makes $12M more than Theis while being an average to below average starter like Theis (though at a more in demand position)

Anyway my point was that our talent level is not as good as most think. 3-5th best player on ORL brings in 2 second rounders while being overpaid // 3-5th best player on BOS (while being underpaid) brings in 2 tall guys with cool names.

You're really glossing over the fact that the Celtics made that trade at like 2:58 pm and needed to trade Theis to avoid being in the luxury tax.

The Bulls had all the leverage and the Celts had basically none.

You can't look at that trade and assume it says anything reliable about the trade value of the player involved.  It's like assuming that a house sold in a foreclosure auction is worth exactly as much as how it went for, when everybody involved understands there are factors at play that are depressing the value.


All of that said, I don't think anybody is arguing that Theis is some great shakes.  There's a reason the team was willing to trade him, and that reason is that Rob Williams is a better player and needs to get more time, and trading Thompson would have been harder / more expensive.

It's understood that the Celts have a shallow roster.  That Theis was one of the best 5-8 players on the team was an indictment of the talent on the team.  You're right about that.

But I wouldn't draw as severe a conclusion from it as you have.  Theis is a solid starting big man.  The Celts were a better team with him playing.  Also, the talent at the top of the roster is very good.  Among the best in the league.  Very few teams have multiple All-NBA players who score 25+ points per game.

[NKY fan]

I think people have unrealistic views of the talent level of this team.
Theis who was somewhere in the 3-5 best player on our team range returned laughable haul at the trade deadline and he was on very team friendly contract.

It was a last second trade made to avoid the luxury tax, and the other team knew. Never gonna get a fair value return in that situation.

Theis was also a FA after the season. You never get near full value for a player who may well end up being a rental.

We got Fournier for two second-rounders. Didn't have much to do with his production.

So that means we overpaid for Fournier - he is also a FA and makes $12M more than Theis while being an average to below average starter like Theis (though at a more in demand position)

Anyway my point was that our talent level is not as good as most think. 3-5th best player on ORL brings in 2 second rounders while being overpaid // 3-5th best player on BOS (while being underpaid) brings in 2 tall guys with cool names.
Orlando is pretty bad this year and has been average for a while prior to this season ... while we are supposed to be a talented team.

A starter who scores 20 points per game and plays average defense is a average to below average starter?

That is a massive stretch unless the guy is a cancer or a massive black hole that tries to get his points outside the flow of the offense. Fournier is neither.

Ainge got a good, youngish, talented player that is a proven scorer for two second round picks and Jeff Teague's 35 year old, well below starter level play. That's a great deal.

The difference between the two deals was leverage.

In the Fournier deal, Boston had it because Orlando wanted to get anything they could for Fournier because they weren't bringing him back and didn't want to add salary beyond this year, so they took the $17 million TPE.

In the Theis deal, Boston didn't have the leverage, like Orlando with Fournier, Boston had decided to move on from Theis and wasn't bring him back, so Ainge made a deal to get two bigs he was interested in to give them an audition to see if Ainge would bring either back while simultaneously assuring that the team stay below the tax line this year.

Fournier is a notoriously bad defender or at least that is the popular fans' opinion. I didn't get the leverage point - sounds like both franchises decided to move on and get anything for their starter but our starter had much easier salary to move.

[ozgod]

- Kemba actually is a little bit better in this metric than last year, which is surprising, but shows you his importance to the way the roster is constructed.  Marcus is a positive, but worse this year than last; again not a surprise.

I feel like the most under-rated / under-valued part of what Kemba brings to this team is his speed. Not necessarily playing at a faster tempo but that threat of taking his man off the dribble an driving the ball down the throat of the defense.

Speed and dribble penetration are not highly enough valued on here. The focus is always more on size and defense. But the league today is more offensive orientated and speed, ball-handling and outside shooting are integral.

This is the main reason I do not want Smart as our starting PG and prefer him as a SG than PG because you can put a more dynamic ball-handler out there instead. And why I prefer Jaylen & Tatum as forwards (SF & PF) than wings (SG & SF) because they allow you to put another more dynamic shot-maker / ball-handler at SG (a role Fournier can fill) vs a bigger more static big forward.


Beyond the scoring of Kemba, it is the speed and ball-handling that lifts our team's offense and it is undervalued. 


Great post by the way. TP.

I think this is a good frame for trying to suss out why things are so much worse this year.

Shifting Tatum and Brown from PF/SF to SF/SG, while spending a lot of minutes with two traditional bigs on the floor, probably has a lot to do with why the team is so much worse defensively.

To put it simply, the Celts have played with lineups that are on balance slower and less switchable than they have in the past.  To make matters worse, when they do play more perimeter oriented lineups, they have to lean on guys like Grant, Semi, and Nesmith, who are undersized for the 3/4 spots and are generally not very productive or especially impactful.


Add that to missing Marcus for a big part of the season and then getting a diminished version of Marcus once he came back, considering the fact that Marcus is probably the best defender on the team, also helps to explain the defensive drop off.

I think you're on to something here, Pho. Probably that would then lead us to looking at which lineups have been most effective for us this year vs last year, and how often those effective lineups have played together vs. not. That will probably give us some more insights.

[JBcat]

I think the intangibles of this crazy season are playing a major factor in everything.

No practices, limited training camp and preseason, injuries, lost games due to Covid, Covid protocols that restrict players on the road, the condensed season and, I think, maybe most importantly, the very fast turnaround from last year's playoffs. I don't think it a coincidence that all 4 teams that were in last year's conference finals are all playing below last year's performances, in the case of LA, Boston and Miami, well below last year's performances.

I disagree somewhat the short turnaround is a big reason why.  My reasoning is Tatum and Brown started off on fire to start the season.   So it didn’t seem to affect them much at all.  Maybe Theis and Smart whose production had gone down somewhat but not Tatum and Brown.


I think these are reasons:

No Kemba for a while to start the season, and when he returned not quite the same player as last season.
No Gordon obviously.
The pre and post Covid numbers for Tatum are striking, and it took him a long while to get back to normal.
Brown’s newfound tendinitis seems to have affected him some games since starting the season on fire.
Maybe the quick turnaround affected Theis and Smart, but I didn’t see it happening with others.
Smart out for a while with an injury, and doesn’t seem quite the same.
Thompson starting the season injured, then taking him a while to finally start playing well only to be out again due to Covid protocols.

Last and definitely not least. Up until a few days ago we had tied with 2 other teams for the most road games in the league (25).  The schedule has been brutal.  Luckily the schedule will be much kinder to us the rest of the way while having the addition of Fournier on the team.

I think the logic that the short turnaround wasn't a factor because some guys started hot is very flawed.

The short turnaround might not show up in play right away. I think the lack of recuperative time takes more of a cumulative effect as the season progresses. Smaller issues from last year suddenly become more acute this season due to lack of off-season rest.

Kemba obviously didn't get enough recuperation in the shortened off-season. A normal off-season probably sees him missing no games and not coming in stone cold.

Brown's tendonitis may be due to lack of rest time as he has occasionally had the issue previously. Perhaps more time off causes the issue not to flare up.

Was Smart's calf issue due to not enough off-season down time and him pushing himself too much this season?

Those are three of the team's most important players. Then add in the mental stress of having been isolated so long in the bubble and mentally recovering from that stress.

It all adds up and as this season has progressed, the team's lack of energy is very apparent. Why? I think it's because they are just exhausted, physically and mentally, and the lack of down time in the off-season is a direct cause of those things.

Well we don’t know for sure either way, but I think some of the things I pointed out played a major role Tatum’s pre and post Covid numbers for about a month or so after, Thompson missing so many games which had nothing to do with a long layoff, no Gordon, and certainly the brutal schedule being tied for the most road games.  Lebron had a short turnaround as well and was playing at the same level until he recently got hurt (was that short offseason related or just by chance we really don’t know).  It’s really a unique situation as all these players also had a long layoff from March until when the bubble play resumed.

Also as someone else alluded to how good were we really in the bubble with Simmons not playing us in the first round, Toronto stretching us to 7 games, and constantly running out of steam in the 4th quarter against the Heat, which also seems to be a theme for this season with the lack of depth a factor.

[td450]

A ton of stuff has changed, but the thing I haven't seen mentioned is that the league has adjusted to Tatum and Brown being the only guys to worry about. They've had time to see the offensive tendencies and what does and doesn't work and they've loaded up on them. This happens every season. If you don't get better you're going to fall back.

The problem we have is that we haven't had the talent to keep the defense more honest as this is happening.

Tatum and Brown will figure it out by making slightly quicker reads and learning better counters. Fournier will help, and hopefully Langford will too. RWill makes very quick decisions. The team is obviously trying to move the ball more.

We will get better. Whether we make any playoff noise will mostly depend on whether Walker and Smart can make any adjustments. So far, the answer is no, they can't

[PhoSita]

I think you're on to something here, Pho. Probably that would then lead us to looking at which lineups have been most effective for us this year vs last year, and how often those effective lineups have played together vs. not. That will probably give us some more insights.

That's a really good idea.  Gonna look into that.

[tonydelk]

I'll keep it simple.  Kemba hurt all year and still not playing in back to back games, can't win close games, epic 4th quarter collapses.  No Hayward replacement.

No flipping defense.  The effort isn't there.  Last year they played D and got a lot of points in transition because of it.  This is not the case and the C's seem to give up a ton of points in the paint and on transition.  Between injuries, Covid and effort it's not the same team even though outside of hayward most returned.   

[PhoSita]

OK, I took a look at lineup data from this season and last to see if it would shed any light.

2021 Regular Season

First off, small sample sizes here because the team has used so many lineups.

Only three lineups have been used for more than 48 minutes.  The top lineup has played 131 minutes, the second lineup has played 95 minutes, the third lineup has played 79.

The top two lineups are double-big groups with Theis and Thompson.  The only difference between them is that the top lineup has Kemba Walker and the second lineup has Marcus Smart.

The Walker lineup has a net rating of +4, while the Smart lineup has a net rating of -4.3. 

Interestingly, the Walker 2-big lineup has a DRTG of 114 (not great), while the Smart 2-big lineup has a DRTG of 117.2 (putrid).  So the top lineup with Smart in place of Walker has actually been a lot worse defensively.  Not sure what to make of that.  Maybe it goes back to the speed issue.  The Smart lineup is also much worse on offense, which is probably down to a severe lack of passing / ball-handling.

Third most used lineup is the primary lineup from the playoffs last year: Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum, Theis.  That group has played 79 minutes together in just 7 games.  I remember the hope earlier in the season was that this group would be the savior of the team once they had the chance to play together more.  However, that group only has a net rating of +2.7.  That group scored like gangbusters (122.2 ORTG), but gave up 119.5 points per 100, which is, uh, not good.

There are two other lineups with really good ratings, but they have only played about 40 minutes together over 7-8 games.  Super small sample.  One is a lineup with the main guys and Semi instead of Smart -- that group has a 82.2 DRTG in 41 minutes, which is nuts.  The other group is a super small lineup with Pritchard and Teague in the backcourt, Timelord at center, and Tatum / Semi on the wing.  That group has an insane 143.3 ORTG and probably played exclusively against 2nd and 3rd string opponents.

I don't know if you can really read anything into those last two given the small sample and the fact that they probably came mostly against backups.

2020 Regular Season

You've got 4 lineups that played a significant chunk of minutes (approx 150+ minutes in 15+ games).  The three top lineups, notably, all feature Gordon Hayward.  Two of the lineups have a net rating in the positive double digits. 

The top lineup is the guys you'd expect: Hayward, Tatum, Brown, Walker, Theis.  That group had a 115.9 ORTG and a 105.3 DRTG. That was the lineup we hoped to see crush it in the playoffs, but they never had the chance.

The second most used lineup had Smart in place of Hayward, and that lineup was just as good defensively but had a 107.7 ORTG, so the net rating was just barely in the positive.

The third lineup had Hayward, Walker, Smart, Tatum, and Theis -- that group was +13.4 with a crazy good 95.0 DRTG in 173 minutes. 

2020 Playoffs

One lineup and one lineup only with a real sample size: 253 minutes over 17 games of Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Theis.  That group was +3.5, with a 106.9 ORTG and a 103.4 DRTG.

That doesn't seem so impressive (it's a smaller net rating than the top lineup so far this season), but it's important to remember that sample is exclusively against three straight elite defensive opponents in a playoff setting.

Remember also, that same lineup this season posted a 119.5 DRTG.  There you see the conundrum: even when the same players have shared the court, the defensive result has been very different.


Takeaways:

- In the last couple of seasons, the times when this team has really consistently housed opponents is when they had three wings on the floor who could drive, catch-and-shoot, and pull-up at a high to elite level.  Another characteristic is that the team has been best when they have one player (and only one) who can pressure the rim by rolling / catching lobs etc.  This season, they haven't had the personnel to put out a lineup like that, and they've played a lot with multiple traditional bigs.

- Kemba is consistently part of the best lineups this team puts on the floor. I think that suggests that having a very good ball-handler with the ability to pull up from anywhere is a more important and valuable piece to have on the floor than many here seem to think.  The team seems to do pretty badly when the main guard out there is Smart, and not just this season.

- You've got to hope that Fournier can give you some of what Hayward did, at least offensively, and that a lineup featuring the Jays, Fournier, Kemba, and Rob Williams can really put up numbers on offense.  Defensively, I doubt that group will get many stops.  But if they have a 125+ ORTG, it may not matter against all but the best opponents.

- I'm also newly concerned that the team traded Theis.  He was consistently a part of the best lineups this team put on the floor since Horford left.  I understand why they did it: Rob Williams is part of the future, the team probably couldn't afford to keep Theis, and trading Thompson would have been too difficult given the time frame of working out a deal.  Still, Theis was a part of the core group that had actually had success recently, whereas Rob Williams has yet to have a really big game in a key spot against a good opponent.  I think trading Theis decidedly makes the team worse this season and will probably be felt in the playoffs.



Bottom line -- if your team doesn't have at least one go-to 5 man unit that has posted excellent results over a significant sample, you probably have no chance of going far in the playoffs.  All of the good teams have at least one really good lineup they can lean on.

[PhoSita]

No flipping defense.  The effort isn't there.  Last year they played D and got a lot of points in transition because of it.  This is not the case and the C's seem to give up a ton of points in the paint and on transition. Between injuries, Covid and effort it's not the same team even though outside of hayward most returned.

2021 Celtics

Fastbreak points per game - 11.6 (19th)
Opponent fastbreak points per game - 11.6 (10th)
Opponent points in the paint per game - 45.4 (9th)

2020 Celtics

Fastbreak points per game - 14.8 (7th)
Opponent fastbreak points per game - 12.4 (8th)
Opponent points in the paint per game - 42.8 (3rd)


So you're right and you're not right.

The Celts are not getting as many fastbreak points this season.  However, they aren't really giving up more fastbreak points.

Are the Celtics forcing fewer turnovers?  Not really -- they forced turnovers on 14% of opponent possessions last season, and the number this season is basically the same at 14.3%.  So why are they so much lower in fastbreak scoring?  I don't know.

They are certainly giving up more points in the paint, though they are still top 10 in that category, just not top 5.


Here's a much bigger change:

2021 Celtics

Opponent 3 point percentage - 37.1% (19th)
Opponent 3 point rate - 40.3% (20th)
Opponent points from 3 pointers - 38.5 (18th)

2020 Celtics

Opponent 3 point percentage - 33.4% (1st)
Opponent 3 point rate - 40.5% (25th)
Opponent points from 3 pointers - 35.2 (9th)



Basically the Celts are giving up a similar number of three pointers this year.  It seems like part of the Celts' strategy has been to induce the opponent to take a lot of threes and avoid the paint. 

Except this season, the opponent is hitting a really high percentage, whereas last season the Celts lead the league in opponent 3 point percentage.


Is that just bad luck?  Or is it a matter of defensive rotations being a bit slower, not quite as crisp, a greater prevalence of defensive mistakes, etc, which have led to more open three point attempts?

I would guess the latter.