Hollinger: Boston's bench reeks

[todd_days_41]

What’s left now is ghastly badness. Boston’s two veteran free agents, Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague, have both been crushing disappointments. Backup forwards Grant Williams and Semi Ojeleye are birds of a feather as strong, useful defenders in small doses whose severe offensive limitations become exposed rather quickly in more prominent roles. Lottery pick Aaron Nesmith was supposed to provide a grip-it-and-rip-it 3-point weapon but has proved unready to say the least. Late first-rounder Payton Pritchard has been the only reserve to deliver satisfactory rotation-caliber play.

In particular, the decision to use the full midlevel exception on Thompson rather than getting some wing help has appeared to be a strategic misfire. They didn’t need Thompson, and he hasn’t helped. Meanwhile, no team drops off more sharply than the Celtics do when Tatum or Brown checks out and is replaced by … Ojeleye? Nesmith? Javonte Green?

The Thompson move also masks another issue: The fact that mistake-prone third-year pro Robert Williams isn’t getting on the floor. Yes, he screws up frequently, but he also makes up for them with athleticism that Boston just doesn’t have anywhere else. The numbers suggest Boston would be better off living with Williams’ screwups and letting his game-changing athleticism offset them.

Fortunately, Boston has left itself in a position to potentially fix some of its issues. As noted above, the Celtics are sitting on a $28 million trade exception from Hayward’s departure and can use about $15.7 million of it without going into the luxury tax. Additionally, they can stack contracts — such as Thompson’s, Ojeleye’s and the perennially injured Romeo Langford — to take back more money and throw in draft picks as needed (they still have all of their future first-round picks).

The Captain Obvious move is to call Oklahoma City about either Al Horford or George Hill. Horford, of course, knows this team well. His salary fits into the exception, and including Thompson and a couple of small contracts would keep Boston below the tax line this year. The issue is that he makes $27 million a year from now, when Tatum’s supermax kicks in, and that could leave the Celtics with a staggering luxury-tax bill.

Hill, on the other hand, could be a more reasonable option because he makes almost the same amount as Thompson and is under contract next season. While ideally, the Celtics would acquire a perimeter player with more size, Hill would nonetheless be a giant upgrade on what’s there now.

I’m oversimplifying, of course: Those aren’t the only options. Boston could liberate Nemanja Bjelica from Sacramento, for instance, or check in on Chicago’s Thaddeus Young. The larger point is that the Celtics retain the ability to fix the issues that have plagued them thus far with some maneuvering as we get closer to the trade deadline.

But they have to do something. For some teams, midseason trades are optional; on this Boston squad, it seems mandatory. The supporting cast just isn’t good enough, and “playing harder” likely is a relatively minor part of the solution. No matter how hard they play, opponents still will gang up on Tatum and Brown and dare the assorted Teagues and Thompsons to beat them. Until Boston’s star wings get better help, the Celtics will continue to lag behind the East’s elite.

If the net net of our trade deadline is George Hill.... please, Danny, do better than that.

By the way, is Bjelica any good? He matches Ainge's "shooting with size" indicator....

[NKY fan]

What’s left now is ghastly badness. Boston’s two veteran free agents, Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague, have both been crushing disappointments. Backup forwards Grant Williams and Semi Ojeleye are birds of a feather as strong, useful defenders in small doses whose severe offensive limitations become exposed rather quickly in more prominent roles. Lottery pick Aaron Nesmith was supposed to provide a grip-it-and-rip-it 3-point weapon but has proved unready to say the least. Late first-rounder Payton Pritchard has been the only reserve to deliver satisfactory rotation-caliber play.

In particular, the decision to use the full midlevel exception on Thompson rather than getting some wing help has appeared to be a strategic misfire. They didn’t need Thompson, and he hasn’t helped. Meanwhile, no team drops off more sharply than the Celtics do when Tatum or Brown checks out and is replaced by … Ojeleye? Nesmith? Javonte Green?

The Thompson move also masks another issue: The fact that mistake-prone third-year pro Robert Williams isn’t getting on the floor. Yes, he screws up frequently, but he also makes up for them with athleticism that Boston just doesn’t have anywhere else. The numbers suggest Boston would be better off living with Williams’ screwups and letting his game-changing athleticism offset them.

Fortunately, Boston has left itself in a position to potentially fix some of its issues. As noted above, the Celtics are sitting on a $28 million trade exception from Hayward’s departure and can use about $15.7 million of it without going into the luxury tax. Additionally, they can stack contracts — such as Thompson’s, Ojeleye’s and the perennially injured Romeo Langford — to take back more money and throw in draft picks as needed (they still have all of their future first-round picks).

The Captain Obvious move is to call Oklahoma City about either Al Horford or George Hill. Horford, of course, knows this team well. His salary fits into the exception, and including Thompson and a couple of small contracts would keep Boston below the tax line this year. The issue is that he makes $27 million a year from now, when Tatum’s supermax kicks in, and that could leave the Celtics with a staggering luxury-tax bill.

Hill, on the other hand, could be a more reasonable option because he makes almost the same amount as Thompson and is under contract next season. While ideally, the Celtics would acquire a perimeter player with more size, Hill would nonetheless be a giant upgrade on what’s there now.

I’m oversimplifying, of course: Those aren’t the only options. Boston could liberate Nemanja Bjelica from Sacramento, for instance, or check in on Chicago’s Thaddeus Young. The larger point is that the Celtics retain the ability to fix the issues that have plagued them thus far with some maneuvering as we get closer to the trade deadline.

But they have to do something. For some teams, midseason trades are optional; on this Boston squad, it seems mandatory. The supporting cast just isn’t good enough, and “playing harder” likely is a relatively minor part of the solution. No matter how hard they play, opponents still will gang up on Tatum and Brown and dare the assorted Teagues and Thompsons to beat them. Until Boston’s star wings get better help, the Celtics will continue to lag behind the East’s elite.

If the net net of our trade deadline is George Hill.... please, Danny, do better than that.

Hollinger has an account on celricsstrong? Lol
Sounds like text mined different threads on here to come up with his suggestions. I guess he throws some punches at Danny indirectly. I wonder how good their relationship was

[cons]

yeah i dont see george hill moving the needle that much

[seancally]

TP for pasting this. 

I listened to a Simmons / KOC pod today where they discussed the Celtics’ woes. Simmons would be all in for a Vucevic trade. KOC suggest Horford. The latter is not to be viewed as an upgrade in and of itself, but because the money and contract timing lines up with Brad Beal. Horford is guaranteed something like $14M in his final year, so despite the big number next season, he also becomes essentially an expiring contract next season. Can he used in trades or wait till he comes off the books and use that room to sign a big name. He’d be a stopgap.

I’ll suggest one other thing if we go the Al route - does KAT become available in a year or two? If/when he does, do we have the flexibility and assets to pry him loose?

[todd_days_41]

Hollinger has an account on celricsstrong? Lol
Sounds like text mined different threads on here to come up with his suggestions. I guess he throws some punches at Danny indirectly. I wonder how good their relationship was

The text is wholly pulled as is from The Atlantic. I just bolded items I found interesting.

[todd_days_41]

TP for pasting this. 

I listened to a Simmons / KOC pod today where they discussed the Celtics’ woes. Simmons would be all in for a Vucevic trade. KOC suggest Horford. The latter is not to be viewed as an upgrade in and of itself, but because the money and contract timing lines up with Brad Beal. Horford is guaranteed something like $14M in his final year, so despite the big number next season, he also becomes essentially an expiring contract next season. Can he used in trades or wait till he comes off the books and use that room to sign a big name. He’d be a stopgap.

I’ll suggest one other thing if we go the Al route - does KAT become available in a year or two? If/when he does, do we have the flexibility and assets to pry him loose?

Interesting. As I've stated a number of times, I struggle to see Ainge trading for Horford. But if Presti would give us a decent first (of which he has like 17, 18 over the next few years) in exchange for taking him, under the circumstances you describe I can see it....

[NKY fan]

TP for pasting this. 

I listened to a Simmons / KOC pod today where they discussed the Celtics’ woes. Simmons would be all in for a Vucevic trade. KOC suggest Horford. The latter is not to be viewed as an upgrade in and of itself, but because the money and contract timing lines up with Brad Beal. Horford is guaranteed something like $14M in his final year, so despite the big number next season, he also becomes essentially an expiring contract next season. Can he used in trades or wait till he comes off the books and use that room to sign a big name. He’d be a stopgap.

I’ll suggest one other thing if we go the Al route - does KAT become available in a year or two? If/when he does, do we have the flexibility and assets to pry him loose?

On the KAT or other big fish becoming available- we need to preserve FRPs as much as we can not trade them away in bunches for mediocre role players . If we can roll forward some picks even better so we have more in 2-3 years to trade. Let’s use our 6-7 rookie contracts plus second rounders to entice a team to give us an average vet or two

[RMO]

TP for pasting this. 

I listened to a Simmons / KOC pod today where they discussed the Celtics’ woes. Simmons would be all in for a Vucevic trade. KOC suggest Horford. The latter is not to be viewed as an upgrade in and of itself, but because the money and contract timing lines up with Brad Beal. Horford is guaranteed something like $14M in his final year, so despite the big number next season, he also becomes essentially an expiring contract next season. Can he used in trades or wait till he comes off the books and use that room to sign a big name. He’d be a stopgap.

I’ll suggest one other thing if we go the Al route - does KAT become available in a year or two? If/when he does, do we have the flexibility and assets to pry him loose?

Does getting Beal take us back though to the problem we had with Hayward?  Too many players that need the ball to be effective. 

[seancally]

TP for pasting this. 

I listened to a Simmons / KOC pod today where they discussed the Celtics’ woes. Simmons would be all in for a Vucevic trade. KOC suggest Horford. The latter is not to be viewed as an upgrade in and of itself, but because the money and contract timing lines up with Brad Beal. Horford is guaranteed something like $14M in his final year, so despite the big number next season, he also becomes essentially an expiring contract next season. Can he used in trades or wait till he comes off the books and use that room to sign a big name. He’d be a stopgap.

I’ll suggest one other thing if we go the Al route - does KAT become available in a year or two? If/when he does, do we have the flexibility and assets to pry him loose?

On the KAT or other big fish becoming available- we need to preserve FRPs as much as we can not trade them away in bunches for mediocre role players . If we can roll forward some picks even better so we have more in 2-3 years to trade. Let’s use our 6-7 rookie contracts plus second rounders to entice a team to give us an average vet or two

Yeah I have no interest in giving FRPs for Horford/Hill. OKC is bad, those guys keep them from being rock-bottom. Take the vets off their hands for some young players and give them the chance at a No. 1 pick.

Having trouble inserting a second quote on my phone...

RMO - I don’t think that was the problem. I think Hayward’s health was the problem. When healthy that team was very good, and could have made the Finals. But in general I don’t think it’s a sure thing Beal is the answer, though he’s undoubtedly great. Depends on what that team looks like. I still think we’re too small.

[Roy H.]

KOC suggest Horford. The latter is not to be viewed as an upgrade in and of itself, but because the money and contract timing lines up with Brad Beal. Horford is guaranteed something like $14M in his final year, so despite the big number next season, he also becomes essentially an expiring contract next season

I’m a bit confused here.  How is an extra year with $14 million guarantee the equivalent of an expiring contract? 

[seancally]

KOC suggest Horford. The latter is not to be viewed as an upgrade in and of itself, but because the money and contract timing lines up with Brad Beal. Horford is guaranteed something like $14M in his final year, so despite the big number next season, he also becomes essentially an expiring contract next season

I’m a bit confused here.  How is an extra year with $14 million guarantee the equivalent of an expiring contract?

He can become a viable piece of salary filler as soon as next season. Big number on the books next season, half that number the following and that’s it. If you need to match salaries next season you can tell the trade partner, look, Horford is a reasonable contract in 2022-23 and then he’s off the books. Not an expiring contract per se but a declining contract, a more palatable contract, something that can plug a hole today and become a trade chip tomorrow. I’m paraphrasing.

That’s why KOC likes horford. Simmons like Vucevic because he’s just good. The problem is that Vucevic takes up more cap space over a longer period, and if he’s not the right piece, you’re kinda stuck with him.

But I love Vooch.

[Wretch]

Listening to Zach Lowe the other day he said that the starting 5 from last years playoff team has played a total of 21 minutes together this season.

Injuries, the COVID protocols, the shortened offseason, and the lack of practice time have had a significant impact on the team.  The Cs are inconsistent and frustrating to watch but I am keeping my finger off the panic button.

Players like Horford and Hill don't move the needle, getting everyone healthy and getting the best players on the floor at the same time will.

[Birdman]

We been saying this for couple of years

[Vermont Green]

So the main points are:

Thompson and Teague were bad pick ups
Our bench is bad

We do have some opportunity to construct a fix or partial fix for our problems with the following as the possibilities

Trade for (Liberate) Nemanja Bjelica (32 years old, past 3 years 9 pts, 5 rebs)
Trade for some combination of Horford and Hill with our TPE
Check in on Thad Young

I am not sure  Nemanja Bjelica helps us at all.  Seems like a little bit taller Daniel Theis.  Horford/Hill ideas have been debated to death.  I actually like the Thad Young idea but recognize that getting him with the TPE for say a pick is a somewhat modest upgrade but it would help.  Hollinger does not seem to think this is very likely.

I think we all get better information from reading each other's posts.

[NKY fan]

Listening to Zach Lowe the other day he said that the starting 5 from last years playoff team has played a total of 21 minutes together this season.

Injuries, the COVID protocols, the shortened offseason, and the lack of practice time have had a significant impact on the team.  The Cs are inconsistent and frustrating to watch but I am keeping my finger off the panic button.

Players like Horford and Hill don't move the needle, getting everyone healthy and getting the best players on the floor at the same time will.

Horford would be 3rd best player on our team and hill will be the best bench player if they get traded here