The Power Forward dilemma

[RodyTur10]

With the departure of Gordon Hayward there's a vacant spot in the starting line-up. During the playoffs it was Smart who stepped in, but it means that either Brown or Tatum will have to guard PF's full time. And although the traditional post-up power forward hardly exists anymore it's still a burden to compete with guys when you're undersized for that position. It's a burden I'd like to avoid for our two best players.

Lets look at the likely starting 4's in the league (based on last season). I ranked them in a tier (of course nobody will exactly agree with my ranking  ) and I highlighted the players that are most likely (i.m.o.) on a team that will make the playoffs (I know I have 9 in the West, just don't know which one to take out). I did my ranking unbiased, but there's a remarkable difference in quality, apparently the '4' position is much stronger in the East than in the West.

Who will give us the most trouble and who should we be interested in to obtain in a trade to get that starting PF that will allow Tatum and Brown to play SF and SG?

Player	Tier		Player	Tier
Antetokounmpo (Bucks)	1		Davis (Lakers)	1
Durant (Nets)	2 *		Williamson (Pelicans)	2
Tatum (Celtics)	2		Green (Warriors)	2
Adebayo/Robinson (Heat)	2/4 **		Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies)	3
Siakam (Raptors)	2		Morris (Clippers)	3
Collins (Hawks)	2		Tucker (Rockets)	3 ***
Harris (76ers)	3		Bjelica (Kings)	4
Love (Cavaliers)	3		Kleber (Mavericks)	4
Griffin (Pistons)	3		O'Neale (Jazz)	4
Gordon (Magic)	3		Saric (Suns)	4
Randle (Knicks)	3		Anthony (Trailblazers)	5
Turner (Pacers)	4		Millsap (Nuggets)	5
Markkanen (Bulls)	4		Bazley (Thunder)	5
Washington (Hornets)	5		Lyles (Spurs)	5
Hachimura (Wizards)	5		Hernangomez (Timberwolves)	5

* It's hard to classify Durant, but I assume here that he'll return as a top 5-15 player.

** Bam Adebayo started in the frontcourt last year alongside center Meyers Leonard (who has been resigned), but during the playoffs Adebayo mostly played center. Has Miami changed its system, considering the signing of Avery Bradley and the emerging of Tyler Herro?

*** I expect that after the signing of Christian Wood that PJ Tucker will go back to his natural PF position.

[Tr1boy]

With the departure of Gordon Hayward there's a vacant spot in the starting line-up. During the playoffs it was Smart who stepped in, but it means that either Brown or Tatum will have to guard PF's full time. And although the traditional post-up power forward hardly exists anymore it's still a burden to compete with guys when you're undersized for that position. It's a burden I'd like to avoid for our two best players.

Lets look at the likely starting 4's in the league (based on last season). I ranked them in a tier (of course nobody will exactly agree with my ranking  ) and I highlighted the players that are most likely (i.m.o.) on a team that will make the playoffs (I know I have 9 in the West, just don't know which one to take out). I did my ranking unbiased, but there's a remarkable difference in quality, apparently the '4' position is much stronger in the East than in the West.

Who will give us the most trouble and who should we be interested in to obtain in a trade to get that starting PF that will allow Tatum and Brown to play SF and SG?

Player	Tier		Player	Tier
Antetokounmpo (Bucks)	1		Davis (Lakers)	1
Durant (Nets)	2 *		Williamson (Pelicans)	2
Tatum (Celtics)	2		Green (Warriors)	2
Adebayo/Robinson (Heat)	2/4 **		Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies)	3
Siakam (Raptors)	2		Morris (Clippers)	3
Collins (Hawks)	2		Tucker (Rockets)	3 ***
Harris (76ers)	3		Bjelica (Kings)	4
Love (Cavaliers)	3		Kleber (Mavericks)	4
Griffin (Pistons)	3		O'Neale (Jazz)	4
Gordon (Magic)	3		Saric (Suns)	4
Randle (Knicks)	3		Anthony (Trailblazers)	5
Turner (Pacers)	4		Millsap (Nuggets)	5
Markkanen (Bulls)	4		Bazley (Thunder)	5
Washington (Hornets)	5		Lyles (Spurs)	5
Hachimura (Wizards)	5		Hernangomez (Timberwolves)	5

* It's hard to classify Durant, but I assume here that he'll return as a top 5-15 player.

** Bam Adebayo started in the frontcourt last year alongside center Meyers Leonard (who has been resigned), but during the playoffs Adebayo mostly played center. Has Miami changed its system, considering the signing of Avery Bradley and the emerging of Tyler Herro?

*** I expect that after the signing of Christian Wood that PJ Tucker will go back to his natural PF position.

The minor flaw with your argument ...

Bam does not play pf. Same with AD

Giannis does play pf but it takes a collective effort to slow him down. Especially need a mobile/physical five

In the case Lakers go with Gasol/AD... AD usually roams around the perimeter more acting like a stretch four. Tatum can guard that.

Side note: this is where a guy like Achiuwa would have came handy. But priority was shooting need

[pearljammer10]

I’m not sure what people don’t understand about Tatum being a 4. He’s a 4, he’s played 4 for a majority of his career.

The nice thing about the addition of TT is that him and Theis can play together in the front court, allowing one of them to guard the PF and the C in short spurts.

Also, Bam and AD are also 100% 4s, their teams chose to play the at the 5 in small ball situations. But AD spent a good chunk of time playing alongside Howard and McGee last year, as well as Morris (who would play the “5” with AD at the four).

[SteveD]

With the departure of Gordon Hayward there's a vacant spot in the starting line-up. During the playoffs it was Smart who stepped in, but it means that either Brown or Tatum will have to guard PF's full time. And although the traditional post-up power forward hardly exists anymore it's still a burden to compete with guys when you're undersized for that position. It's a burden I'd like to avoid for our two best players.

Lets look at the likely starting 4's in the league (based on last season). I ranked them in a tier (of course nobody will exactly agree with my ranking  ) and I highlighted the players that are most likely (i.m.o.) on a team that will make the playoffs (I know I have 9 in the West, just don't know which one to take out). I did my ranking unbiased, but there's a remarkable difference in quality, apparently the '4' position is much stronger in the East than in the West.

Who will give us the most trouble and who should we be interested in to obtain in a trade to get that starting PF that will allow Tatum and Brown to play SF and SG?

Player	Tier		Player	Tier
Antetokounmpo (Bucks)	1		Davis (Lakers)	1
Durant (Nets)	2 *		Williamson (Pelicans)	2
Tatum (Celtics)	2		Green (Warriors)	2
Adebayo/Robinson (Heat)	2/4 **		Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies)	3
Siakam (Raptors)	2		Morris (Clippers)	3
Collins (Hawks)	2		Tucker (Rockets)	3 ***
Harris (76ers)	3		Bjelica (Kings)	4
Love (Cavaliers)	3		Kleber (Mavericks)	4
Griffin (Pistons)	3		O'Neale (Jazz)	4
Gordon (Magic)	3		Saric (Suns)	4
Randle (Knicks)	3		Anthony (Trailblazers)	5
Turner (Pacers)	4		Millsap (Nuggets)	5
Markkanen (Bulls)	4		Bazley (Thunder)	5
Washington (Hornets)	5		Lyles (Spurs)	5
Hachimura (Wizards)	5		Hernangomez (Timberwolves)	5

* It's hard to classify Durant, but I assume here that he'll return as a top 5-15 player.

** Bam Adebayo started in the frontcourt last year alongside center Meyers Leonard (who has been resigned), but during the playoffs Adebayo mostly played center. Has Miami changed its system, considering the signing of Avery Bradley and the emerging of Tyler Herro?

*** I expect that after the signing of Christian Wood that PJ Tucker will go back to his natural PF position.

The minor flaw with your argument ...

Bam does not play pf. Same with AD

Giannis does play pf but it takes a collective effort to slow him down. Especially need a mobile/physical five

In the case Lakers go with Gasol/AD... AD usually roams around the perimeter more acting like a stretch four. Tatum can guard that.

Side note: this is where a guy like Achiuwa would have came handy. But priority was shooting need

Bam and AD both play PF.

[Jvalin]

I'm perfectly happy with Tatum starting at PF. He ain't strong enough to defend traditional PFs in the paint, but they aren't explosive enough to stay in front of Tatum on the perimeter.

The only exception in the East is Giannis, but no one can defend Giannis 1-on-1 anyway.

[Tr1boy]

With the departure of Gordon Hayward there's a vacant spot in the starting line-up. During the playoffs it was Smart who stepped in, but it means that either Brown or Tatum will have to guard PF's full time. And although the traditional post-up power forward hardly exists anymore it's still a burden to compete with guys when you're undersized for that position. It's a burden I'd like to avoid for our two best players.

Lets look at the likely starting 4's in the league (based on last season). I ranked them in a tier (of course nobody will exactly agree with my ranking  ) and I highlighted the players that are most likely (i.m.o.) on a team that will make the playoffs (I know I have 9 in the West, just don't know which one to take out). I did my ranking unbiased, but there's a remarkable difference in quality, apparently the '4' position is much stronger in the East than in the West.

Who will give us the most trouble and who should we be interested in to obtain in a trade to get that starting PF that will allow Tatum and Brown to play SF and SG?

Player	Tier		Player	Tier
Antetokounmpo (Bucks)	1		Davis (Lakers)	1
Durant (Nets)	2 *		Williamson (Pelicans)	2
Tatum (Celtics)	2		Green (Warriors)	2
Adebayo/Robinson (Heat)	2/4 **		Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies)	3
Siakam (Raptors)	2		Morris (Clippers)	3
Collins (Hawks)	2		Tucker (Rockets)	3 ***
Harris (76ers)	3		Bjelica (Kings)	4
Love (Cavaliers)	3		Kleber (Mavericks)	4
Griffin (Pistons)	3		O'Neale (Jazz)	4
Gordon (Magic)	3		Saric (Suns)	4
Randle (Knicks)	3		Anthony (Trailblazers)	5
Turner (Pacers)	4		Millsap (Nuggets)	5
Markkanen (Bulls)	4		Bazley (Thunder)	5
Washington (Hornets)	5		Lyles (Spurs)	5
Hachimura (Wizards)	5		Hernangomez (Timberwolves)	5

* It's hard to classify Durant, but I assume here that he'll return as a top 5-15 player.

** Bam Adebayo started in the frontcourt last year alongside center Meyers Leonard (who has been resigned), but during the playoffs Adebayo mostly played center. Has Miami changed its system, considering the signing of Avery Bradley and the emerging of Tyler Herro?

*** I expect that after the signing of Christian Wood that PJ Tucker will go back to his natural PF position.

The minor flaw with your argument ...

Bam does not play pf. Same with AD

Giannis does play pf but it takes a collective effort to slow him down. Especially need a mobile/physical five

In the case Lakers go with Gasol/AD... AD usually roams around the perimeter more acting like a stretch four. Tatum can guard that.

Side note: this is where a guy like Achiuwa would have came handy. But priority was shooting need

Bam and AD both play PF.

Not in the playoffs. When it mattered, both were the only bigs on the floor.  Dwight Howard got mins early in the Heat series but not at the tail end. Didnt play much

[CFAN38]

The only two bigs that are a matchup concern for me are Giannis and AD neither matchup is helped defensively by Hayward.

[nickagneta]

Funny thing about last year. Take a look at the matchups Brown had during the season and during the playoffs. He was the guy guarding the PFs most of the time. Look at how he shut down Horford, Harris and Siakam. That wasn't just a playoff thing. For most part throughout the year, it was Brown covering the opposing PF. Sure, he was listed as the guard and the opposition often defended him with a guard, but Brown was defending the PF.

[Vermont Green]

I have been beating this drum for a while.  If you go back and look at the 2019-20 season (which I did a while back and posted about it), nearly all the top teams played a 2-big line up as their top line up in terms of minutes played (per 82games).  That doesn't mean that every team has to play every minute with 2 bigs on the floor but I feel it is a strength for a team if you have the personnel to play that way and still have enough skill on the floor to be a threat.

The Celtics version of a 2-big line up is very weak.  It was last season and it will be this season.  This season it would be  some combination of Thompson-Theis or Williams, Williams, Ojeleye.  We can't even put 2 starting level bigs on the floor at the same time (or barely).

Our best line up will be a 1-big line up with PG-3 Wing-Big and we be very strong with this type of line up.  Every team will be playing a 1-big line up sometimes.  That is a plus for us, but the difference is that we have to play that line up because our 2-big version lacks so much skill compared to most if not all other teams (in terms of the 2 bigs we can put on the floor together).

As to Tatum, he is not a big (or PF), it is silly to try to argue that he is.  He is not even really a swing in the mold of say Marcus Morris or Thaddeus Young or Rudy Gay.  His natural position is wing (SF).  In that role, he could be all NBA.  As a big, you can't even really rank him.  When the Celtics play with him at "PF", we are essentially playing with 1 big and that is fine.  The Celtics would be better served though if we could add a skilled enough big that would allow us to play better with 2-bigs when we need or want to.

[Somebody]

Funny thing about last year. Take a look at the matchups Brown had during the season and during the playoffs. He was the guy guarding the PFs most of the time. Look at how he shut down Horford, Harris and Siakam. That wasn't just a playoff thing. For most part throughout the year, it was Brown covering the opposing PF. Sure, he was listed as the guard and the opposition often defended him with a guard, but Brown was defending the PF.

Brown is fantastic at guarding modern day 4s. I'm pretty partial to the argument that you'd ideally want him to guard opposing guards and wings though, those players are usually the best offensive players in the league (very few bigs are offensive dynamos, it's pretty much Jokic/KAT and Jaylen can't guard them anyways).

[nebist]

I have never been worried about opposing 4s beating us up 1v1 in the post. Overall, that is an inefficient offense, and if teams want to try it, they can go for it. The modern NBA is about defending ball screens and defending the 3 point line. Having 3 long, switchable wing defenders at the 2-4 spots is an ideal way to defend both of those areas.

[td450]

We are better and more flexible up front than we were last year. It's true we don't have a top level talent who is a natural big, but we have Theis, Thompson, Robert Williams and Grant Williams, and Jaylen Brown can defend that spot better than any of them when we need it.

Still, my biggest problem with Ainge is he refused to overpay to get a lottery level young big in the last few drafts.

[Csfan1984]

C's don't really adjust, they like going small. They believe in only having one big on court. They want to win with effort and speed. I'd like a better PF backup/starter but it's not happening with this GM and Coach.

[RodyTur10]

The minor flaw with your argument ...
Bam does not play pf.

He does. Or you could say that Leonard was the PF, but Leonard never defends other PF's.

Same with AD

AD has repeatedly said he doesn't like to play C. He may play there in closing line-ups, but Gasol or Harrell will fill the majority of minutes at center and one of them will start with AD as PF,

Giannis does play pf but it takes a collective effort to slow him down. Especially need a mobile/physical five

I agree with this. Giannis has had the most problems when he was being guarded by Embiid, Horford or Adebayo, and ofthe just a collective effort. Hopefully Thompson, Theis and Robert Williams can effectively slow him down, since our wings won't be able to do that.

In the case Lakers go with Gasol/AD... AD usually roams around the perimeter more acting like a stretch four. Tatum can guard that.

I can guarantee you that the Lakers will go with that (because AD prefers playing PF). So you have Tatum guarding Davis one-on-one... that's exactly what I want to avoid.

Side note: this is where a guy like Achiuwa would have came handy. But priority was shooting need

I was intrigued with Achiuwa but his overall skill and awareness seem to be lacking. Anyway I'm looking for a guy that can help now and in the future.

[RodyTur10]

The main problem I have is that if we start Brown/Tatum as the 3/4, we will (need to) start Smart as well to help Walker defensively. So we're playing the same line-up as we did in the playoffs and we're again giving up overall size.
As they say: size matters.

Also our rotation gets a bit whacky if we can't find another solution for the '4'. So we have Walker/Smart/Brown/Tatum/Theis. Our important bench players are: Teague, Pritchard, Langford, Nesmith, G.Williams, Thompson, R.Williams.

Langford is currently injured and if we won't play Thompson regularly at the '4', it means we start a PG + 3 players to play SG-PF + C unit. While our bench provides 2 players to cover for PG (Teague and Pritchard), 2 players to cover for C (Thompson and R.Williams) and also just 2 players to cover for the other 3 positions SG-PF combined (Nesmith and G.Williams)!

That's out of balance, even if you account for Brown and Tatum playing more minutes per game than Walker, Theis (and Smart). We do still have Ojeleye, who will almost automatically be part of the rotation because we'll have minutes to spend at SF and PF. But at the same time Theis, Thompson and R.Williams will be fighting (not literally I hope  ) each other to get enough minutes on the team.