still early to do this with free agency still going on and C's trying to get a TPE from Charlotte but here's my thoughts:
East
1. Milwaukee
2. Miami
3. Toronto
4. Celtics
5. Brooklyn
6. Philly
7. Pacers
8. Atlanta
—> notes
I think Atlanta made enough moves to sneak in. I think Charlotte won’t come close despite adding Hayward. Orlando will just miss - figure them for the #9 spot. Toronto should be good enough in the regular season to get the third slot despite losing Gasol and Ibaka but I think they're the team most likely to be upset in the playoffs. Brooklyn should get the fifth spot just based on talent alone but they'll look really disjointed and Steve Nash will look as useless as an appendix for that team due to Kyrie and Durant doing whatever they want.
West
1. Lakers
2. Denver
3. Clippers
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. NO
7. Phx
8. Utah
—>notes
I think the Lakers made enough moves to put themselves at the top of the heap and that’s very painful for me to say. I think Houston underperforms and if they move either Harden or Westbrook they miss the playoffs. I think NO and Phx will be much better this coming year than they were this past year. Utah barely edges out Portland for that last playoff spot.
West will still have someone over .500 that misses the playoffs whereas in the East I think the last spot or two will be under .500.
overall, this obviously doesn’t predict for injuries that aren’t known at this time. Example, Klay’s known injury knock GSW out of the playoffs IMO.
always interesting to take a look back and see how one makes out with predictions.
East — predicted — actual
1. Milwaukee — Philly
2. Miami — Brooklyn
3. Toronto — Milwaukee
4. Celtics — Celtics
5. Brooklyn — Knicks
6. Philly — Miami
7. Pacers — Charlotte
8. Atlanta — Toronto
—> Indy is 10th and Atlanta is 11th in the conference, 1/2 and 1 game out of 8th respectively
West — predicted — actual
1. Lakers — Utah
2. Denver — Phx
3. Clippers — Lakers
4. Dallas — Clips
5. Houston — Portland
6. NO — Denver
7. Phx — SAS
8. Utah — Dallas
—> Houston 14th in the conference. NO at 11th — 4 games out of 8th
overall, only team I nailed on the head so far is the Celtics. went 6 for 8 on playoff teams in each conference so that’s not horrible. Predicted Phx would be much better this year but underestimate how much better. Missed on Houston due to the Harden trade. Still think Indy and Atlanta make the playoffs — I don’t see the Knicks or Charlotte hanging on in the second half of the season.
At this rate the Celts end up higher than 4th. Playing really well
I really don't know how well the Celts are playing. The win against Indiana was too close for a game that they seemed to have in hand. They barely snuck out with a victory against Washington, who is a subpar team. They beat the Clippers in a nail biter without Kawhi and without Marcus Morris for the majority of the game. Then they beat a Raptors team missing half of their players in a much closer game than it should have been.
Kemba is coming around offensively, but the defense is atrocious. The Celtics seem to have very good individual defenders with each center, Tatum, Brown, Semi, Pritchard, etc. However, there are some weak links. For example, I noticed that the Clippers attacked Walker every time he scored and they seemed to be overly successful doing so.
Maybe getting Smart back fixes some of these issues, but I am starting to think that with the individual defenders the Celtics have, it may come down to coaching them to work cohesively on the defensive end.
I hope the wins provide some positive energy that we can carry into the second half, but the Celts are a very long way away from looking like contenders IMHO.