Statistically Ranking Theis to Last Years Centers and comparing with Turner

[#1P4P]

I agree with the premise of the thread. Turner on the Celtics has the benefit of being in the idealistic stage so people can build their fervor with the idea that “Theis is a weakness at Center and Turner is an upgrade”.

Whether it’s by analytics or the eye test, it’s a lateral move. Theis was one of the best defenders at his position last season, he is one of, if not, the best at guarding and switching on the perimeter. He has his flaws and might not be the solution, but Turner is not the replacement to put us over the top.

Brad’s teams have collapsed repeatedly in close games through predictable scoring droughts. To remedy it, I think the biggest need is for a player like Blake Griffin that gets to the FT line and/or works well in the midrange when opponents clog the lane and close out quick on the perimeter. Blake as a small ball 5 on the Celtics would be the best option and I’m going to continue to beat the drums for that move. Also, Kemba for one of Lowry/Paul/Derozan will be a great replacement next year once we can move on from Kemba without feeling guilty (injury or no injury, Kemba has to score an efficient 25-30+ PPG to even out how much he gets picked on in the playoffs).

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The difference is that Theis is playing at the absolute ceiling of his talents. Turner is about half-way up the wall.

I know what the advanced stats say about Theis' defense, but remember how Olynyk, Sullinger, and Johnson all had some of the best advanced defensive stats in previous years? Remember how he turned Zeller into a reasonably decent defender? Did you see how Horford's defensive abilities collapsed after he left CBS' system? That's CBS system. No doubt all those guys did their job well in that system, but there is also no doubt that they were system players. After Johnson and Sullinger left, they were out of the league a couple years later.

Turner has never had the benefit of playing in a great system that fits his skills. He's just under Rudy Gobert as a rim protector already as an NBA player without great coaching. The guys got elite abilities, but it's not found its way to consistent success on the court. I think CBS could unlock that.

[Somebody]

So look, i get the advances numbers favor Theis to varying degrees. But i really feel that just looking at those numbers ignores all context.

We just saw what happens defensively to a center when you go from playing with the Celtics as the lone big surrounded by talented perimeter defenders to playing next to a big who has to drop. How did Al Horford look in that context? Turner was playing basically the same role next to Sabonis. The upgrade in setting going from having to be a PF to being a true center surrounded by three of the better perimeter defenders in the league (Smart, Jaylen Tatum) cannot be ignored. I honestly think Turner has all nab defensive upside in that context. He has some versatility, he can play drop but also has enough athleticism to switch onto most perimeter guys.

On offense Turner just had a bad year, he shot 34.4 % when his career 3 point percentage is 35.7 and his FT% is 77%. I think we could vary easily see a reversion to a 37%+ three point shooter next year. He's not gonna dish out assists like Horford, or post up much, but if he plays high level defense, holds up better against the better centers than theis did, and shooter 37% from 3 then he's great!

So basically I'm just not sure we should compared a guy in a sub optimal situation to a guy in pretty much optimal situation and draw HARD conclusions. Turner is only about 6 months older than Jaylen and I think clearly has some upside left to explore. He's under contract three more years and at worst can probably be used as matching salary for a better guy down the line. And if you do get him maybe you can explore flipping Theis for an asset.

I'd much rather have him then lose Hayward for nothing.

Yeah what we're doing is applying context to the numbers: we know that Turner played a larger role next to a less than ideal defensive cast, so we mentally curve up his numbers while we slightly curve down Theis' due to his smaller role and great defensive support. But the difference between the two isn't as big as people on this forum would like to believe, you'd think that Theis is some scrub who should never be playing a significant role for a team with serious aspirations while Turner is a defensive god waiting to be unleashed if you base your opinions on the two by only reading this forum.

We don't draw hard conclusions from the data, but we do get the signal that it is much more likely for Turner to be marginally better than Theis than Turner being a much superior player. I definitely wouldn't be crying if we traded Hayward for him, but I wouldn't be super ecstatic about it unless we get someone like Gallinari to somewhat fill in the playmaking/shooting/scoring void left by the departure of Hayward.

Turner played a lot more minutes though.  I mean in the regular season he had 32 games of at least 30 minutes, Theis had 10.  If you look at the games of at least 24 minutes, Turner had 54, Theis had 34.  And the discrepancy would have been a lot more but for Turner missing a bunch of games.  Minutes matter a great deal, especially for efficiency.  So does fit.  Keevs did a great job laying out the fit component, but he didn't really mention minutes, and I think that is a big factor as well.  If the metrics tell you that Daniel Theis is basically the same player as Myles Turner, then the metrics are wrong.

No metric measures player goodness so I guess all of them are wrong because they say that Theis provides similar value to the Celtics compared to Turner on the Pacers . I also mentioned minutes, so I'm not sure where you're getting at here. Narrative much?

[Somebody]

So look, i get the advances numbers favor Theis to varying degrees. But i really feel that just looking at those numbers ignores all context.

We just saw what happens defensively to a center when you go from playing with the Celtics as the lone big surrounded by talented perimeter defenders to playing next to a big who has to drop. How did Al Horford look in that context? Turner was playing basically the same role next to Sabonis. The upgrade in setting going from having to be a PF to being a true center surrounded by three of the better perimeter defenders in the league (Smart, Jaylen Tatum) cannot be ignored. I honestly think Turner has all nab defensive upside in that context. He has some versatility, he can play drop but also has enough athleticism to switch onto most perimeter guys.

On offense Turner just had a bad year, he shot 34.4 % when his career 3 point percentage is 35.7 and his FT% is 77%. I think we could vary easily see a reversion to a 37%+ three point shooter next year. He's not gonna dish out assists like Horford, or post up much, but if he plays high level defense, holds up better against the better centers than theis did, and shooter 37% from 3 then he's great!

So basically I'm just not sure we should compared a guy in a sub optimal situation to a guy in pretty much optimal situation and draw HARD conclusions. Turner is only about 6 months older than Jaylen and I think clearly has some upside left to explore. He's under contract three more years and at worst can probably be used as matching salary for a better guy down the line. And if you do get him maybe you can explore flipping Theis for an asset.

I'd much rather have him then lose Hayward for nothing.

Yeah what we're doing is applying context to the numbers: we know that Turner played a larger role next to a less than ideal defensive cast, so we mentally curve up his numbers while we slightly curve down Theis' due to his smaller role and great defensive support. But the difference between the two isn't as big as people on this forum would like to believe, you'd think that Theis is some scrub who should never be playing a significant role for a team with serious aspirations while Turner is a defensive god waiting to be unleashed if you base your opinions on the two by only reading this forum.

We don't draw hard conclusions from the data, but we do get the signal that it is much more likely for Turner to be marginally better than Theis than Turner being a much superior player. I definitely wouldn't be crying if we traded Hayward for him, but I wouldn't be super ecstatic about it unless we get someone like Gallinari to somewhat fill in the playmaking/shooting/scoring void left by the departure of Hayward.

Turner played a lot more minutes though.  I mean in the regular season he had 32 games of at least 30 minutes, Theis had 10.  If you look at the games of at least 24 minutes, Turner had 54, Theis had 34.  And the discrepancy would have been a lot more but for Turner missing a bunch of games.  Minutes matter a great deal, especially for efficiency.  So does fit.  Keevs did a great job laying out the fit component, but he didn't really mention minutes, and I think that is a big factor as well.  If the metrics tell you that Daniel Theis is basically the same player as Myles Turner, then the metrics are wrong.

Dont mess on the Metrics now.


 
Theis, in Boston, has performed as well as Turner in Indiana.


however

Turner is Bigger
Turner is stronger (?)
Turner is a superior athlete
Turner has a better shot
Turner is younger and theoretically has more room for growth.
Turner has better defensive instincts


Next is:
With Turner increased natural gifts over Theis will he perform better than his past self in the Celtics system. And if so is it more than Theis? Substantially more than Theis? etc.

I am in the camp of cannot see why not.

Turner is actually weaker than Theis, and he definitely doesn't have better defensive instincts - he's pretty much a shot blocker and that's it for his defence. Really good one who doesn't gamble too much, but to say that he can move all over the floor like Theis without making defensive errors is a massive stretch.

[Somebody]

The difference is that Theis is playing at the absolute ceiling of his talents. Turner is about half-way up the wall.

I know what the advanced stats say about Theis' defense, but remember how Olynyk, Sullinger, and Johnson all had some of the best advanced defensive stats in previous years? Remember how he turned Zeller into a reasonably decent defender? Did you see how Horford's defensive abilities collapsed after he left CBS' system? That's CBS system. No doubt all those guys did their job well in that system, but there is also no doubt that they were system players. After Johnson and Sullinger left, they were out of the league a couple years later.

Turner has never had the benefit of playing in a great system that fits his skills. He's just under Rudy Gobert as a rim protector already as an NBA player without great coaching. The guys got elite abilities, but it's not found its way to consistent success on the court. I think CBS could unlock that.

Johnson was a +/- binkie in the back end of his prime when he played for us (probably due to the selectivity of his role like Theis as well as the little things he does that rack up value in tracking data) while Olynyk and Sullinger had collinearity issues - mutliyear stretches of +/- had their numbers even out. Horford also aged horribly in a system that didn't fit him at all - he'll bounce back in OKC as a top 40ish player imo.

I do agree that Stevens can get more out of his players than most other coaches in the NBA, but your post overrates his impact, a lot of his former big men look considerably worse after leaving Boston just bombed out physically instead of just being misused on other teams (eg. Sully, Horford, Amir). Btw I don't think that Indiana has a horrible system, their former coach was a pretty good defensive coach who relied on strong defences to power his squads. Turner will probably be better on the Celtics, but to think that he will become Rudy Gobert in our system is just as ridiculous as thinking that Ben Simmons is the second coming of Magic Johnson just because he's a big forward with skills.

[LilRip]

We must be fortunate then that guys (when they play in Boston) are in peak form and then we get out just in time to see them fall of a cliff

Look, system and fit matter. The C’s are able to get a lot of players who can shoot and/or are mobile.

I don’t think anyone is saying here that Theis is a scrub. But it’s hard to ignore context. It absolutely benefits Theis that he plays alongside 3 terrific perimeter defenders in Smart/Jaylen/Jayson

[Somebody]

We must be fortunate then that guys (when they play in Boston) are in peak form and then we get out just in time to see them fall of a cliff

Look, system and fit matter. The C’s are able to get a lot of players who can shoot and/or are mobile.

I don’t think anyone is saying here that Theis is a scrub. But it’s hard to ignore context. It absolutely benefits Theis that he plays alongside 3 terrific perimeter defenders in Smart/Jaylen/Jayson

it happens when your best bigs are either on the back end of their primes when they join us or have struggled with conditioning for their entire career.

Look, they both matter. I account for that by mentally curving down the numbers of our bigs and not taking them at face value, which is what anyone should do with the numbers instead of dismissing them completely because "hurr THEY'RE WRONG" when they don't jive with the eye test and lack context.

You'd be surprised at the amount of people saying that Theis should only be a 10-15 MPG backup big at most on any decent team.

[PAOBoston]

Does Turner commit defensive fouls at a similar pace as Theis? That’s a huge problem with Theis. He picks up fouls so easily.

[Somebody]

Does Turner commit defensive fouls at a similar pace as Theis? That’s a huge problem with Theis. He picks up fouls so easily.

Nope, Theis commits around 6 fouls per 100 while Turner is around 4-5 this season. Big reason as to why Turner is able to play more minutes.

[GreenWarrior]

 Meanwhile the 6ers just got dwight howard. I know I won't convince anyone of this here but we could've used a player like that because he is better than anything we have...even at this point in his career.

[PAOBoston]

Meanwhile the 6ers just got dwight howard. I know I won't convince anyone of this here but we could've used a player like that because he is better than anything we have...even at this point in his career.

There’s a reason why Howard has bounced around every year recently. He’s not a great team guy.

[Jvalin]

I was a big fan of Turner's game. I'm not anymore.

The C's run a PnR heavy offense. Theis is great at setting picks on the perimeter for our ball handlers (Kemba/Smart/Tatum/Hayward).  Here are some advanced stats regarding screen assists:

Screen assists per 36
Theis 6.3
Turner 3.2

Screen assisted points per 36
Theis 14.9
Turner 7.2

Kemba scored 48.5% of his points last season out of the pick n roll. The respective numbers for Tatum and Smart were 25.5% and 24.8%. To put it another way, Theis fits nicely next to Kemba, Tatum and Smart. Imo, Turner is a better fit next to Brown.

Here are some more advanced stats. Theis is a better rebounder, passer, cutter, roller and transition scorer. I also believe he's a better perimeter defender, but that's just my eye test. I have no stats to support my claim.

Rebounding

Theis
ORB% 9.7
DRB% 19.3
TRB% 14.6

Turner
ORB% 5.2
DRB% 19.1
TRB% 12.2

Putbacks
Theis scores 1.12 PPP on a 15.3% frequency.
Turner scores 1.27 PPP, albeit on a 6% frequency.

Assist%
Theis 10.1
Turner 5.4

Turnover%
Theis 10.2
Turner 11.4

Cutting
Theis 1.32 PPP
Turner 1.2 PPP

PnR offense
Theis scores 1.17 PPP which ranks in the 65.9th percentile.
Turner scores 1.04 PPP which ranks in the 41.5th percentile.

Transition scoring
Theis scores 1.49 PPP which ranks in the 96.4th percentile.
Turner scores 0.85 PPP which ranks in the 9.3rd percentile.


Turner is a better shooter and rim protector. The advanced stats show that he's also a marginally better PnR defender, but that's subjective to criticism. The way our PnR defense works, Theis meets the opposing ball handler at the level of dribble hand off and denies penetration. Imo, Theis is better at this role. Turner is a better drop defender. Not sure whether we'd be using him as a drop defender.

Spot up shooting
Theis scores 0.94 PPP which ranks in the 42.4th percentile.
Turner scores 1.07 PPP which ranks in the 68.9th percentile.

Block%
Theis 5
Turner 6.4

PnR defense
Theis allows 1.24 PPP which ranks in the 17.8th percentile.
Turner allows 1.22 PPP which ranks in the 18.9th percentile.


All in all, I believe Turner is overpaid. I'd rather have Theis at $5M than Turner at $18M. Frankly, it's not even close.

[Muzzy66]

Statistically ranking Theis compared to other centers discounts the impact that the coach, team and system have on those numbers.  If you look at how some people played here vs. other locations, you will generally notice the positive impact Brad Stevens, Celtic culture and other players have had on the players being evaluated.  Jordon Crawford was a player of the month (I think) under Brad Stevens and literally did nothing anywhere else.  Evan Turner was made useful here and got a huge contract from Portland and stopped producing there.  Jae Crowder was unleashed in Boston.  IT4 never played better than he did in Boston.  Aaron Baynes got better here before taking his talents to Phoenix.

My point is that if Turner is potentially starting off with more raw talent than Theis, who is to say that Brad Stevens will not find better use of that talent?  Turner has some fantastic tools and I would bet that he can be better than Theis under the same system and with the same teammates.

Obviously we can all debate whether my comment is true or false and Danny Ainge (if given the opportunity by Hayward) will have the final say as to whether or not he believes it to be true, but in order to make a comparison, the situations need to be equalized.

And we adjust for that by ranking Turner slightly ahead of Theis even though the latter has a sexier statistical portfolio. The gap just isn't that large lol, it's similar to Ben Simmons not being the second coming of Magic Johnson no matter how much people on this forum are obsessed with "hurr he's a big athletic freak with SKILLZ".

In fairness to Simmons, his main limitation is lack of a jumper - and Magic also struggled with his jumper early on.  It just wasnt as big a deal in his era, as shooting wasn't so critical as it is in todays NBA.  If you put Simmons back in Magic's era he would have proably ended his career as an all time great as well. We really have not seen a lot of guys with Simmon's combination of size, length, strength, athleticism, handles, court vision and basketball IQ.  And on top of that he is also a borderline-elite defender who can guard any position.

If Simmons had a little extra confidence/experience and a jump shot he would be a top 10 talent in this league, IMHO.  I think he woulid be at or near Giannis' level. 

[Muzzy66]

Meanwhile the 6ers just got dwight howard. I know I won't convince anyone of this here but we could've used a player like that because he is better than anything we have...even at this point in his career.

You don';t need to convince me, I've been wanting boston to take a chance on Dwight for the last 2 or so years. 

I feel in some ways he is almost the perfect bit for the Celtics, because he's so efficient on the offensive end in terms of points per FGA.  You dont really need to call plays for him at all - he's going to get most his points off P&R dunk, offensive rebounds / putbacks and free throws.  Why thats good for the Celtics?  Because it means he is the type of guy hwo can make an impact on offense, on defense and on the boards without having to take plays / touches away from our young centerpieces.

Aside from that, like him or hate him, he's got experience.  He's carried an Orlando magic team (with no other big stars) to the NBA finals, and he's now been a genuinely valuable contributor on a championship Lakers squad. That's the type of experience a young Celtics team like this could use. 

We can't forget - this is an extremely young team.  The guys who are looked at as the "vet leaders" of this team are pretty much Kemba (who has barely played in the playoffs) and Smart who is like 25 years old.  The team lacks those one or two experienced veteran guys who can help kleep the guys focussed at stressful times, or calm the young guys down when they get a little anxious.  I think pretty much every championship team in history has had one or two of those guys. 

60% of the Celtics starting 5 (Theis, Brown and Tatum) have less then 5 years of NBA experience, and the teams bench relied heavily on rookie minutes.  For most of the season Brad Wanamaker was the only guy on the roster who was over 30 years old.  The team needs a vet or two.

[Big333223]

One other piece to consider when making these comparisons is that Turner was forced into the wrong role for him last season because of the emergence of Sabonis. In 2019 Turner was in conversation for DPOY. I'm seeing some articles from a year ago touting Turner's p&r defense as stellar not just his rim protection.

If we're comparing last year's numbers, we're comparing Theis in the perfect situation to Turner in a bad situation (at least as his role is concerned). That matters.