Statistically Ranking Theis to Last Years Centers and comparing with Turner

[michigan adam]

I was a big fan of Turner's game. I'm not anymore.

The C's run a PnR heavy offense. Theis is great at setting picks on the perimeter for our ball handlers (Kemba/Smart/Tatum/Hayward).  Here are some advanced stats regarding screen assists:

Screen assists per 36
Theis 6.3
Turner 3.2

Screen assisted points per 36
Theis 14.9
Turner 7.2

Kemba scored 48.5% of his points last season out of the pick n roll. The respective numbers for Tatum and Smart were 25.5% and 24.8%. To put it another way, Theis fits nicely next to Kemba, Tatum and Smart. Imo, Turner is a better fit next to Brown.

Here are some more advanced stats. Theis is a better rebounder, passer, cutter, roller and transition scorer. I also believe he's a better perimeter defender, but that's just my eye test. I have no stats to support my claim.

Rebounding

Theis
ORB% 9.7
DRB% 19.3
TRB% 14.6

Turner
ORB% 5.2
DRB% 19.1
TRB% 12.2

Putbacks
Theis scores 1.12 PPP on a 15.3% frequency.
Turner scores 1.27 PPP, albeit on a 6% frequency.

Assist%
Theis 10.1
Turner 5.4

Turnover%
Theis 10.2
Turner 11.4

Cutting
Theis 1.32 PPP
Turner 1.2 PPP

PnR offense
Theis scores 1.17 PPP which ranks in the 65.9th percentile.
Turner scores 1.04 PPP which ranks in the 41.5th percentile.

Transition scoring
Theis scores 1.49 PPP which ranks in the 96.4th percentile.
Turner scores 0.85 PPP which ranks in the 9.3rd percentile.


Turner is a better shooter and rim protector. The advanced stats show that he's also a marginally better PnR defender, but that's subjective to criticism. The way our PnR defense works, Theis meets the opposing ball handler at the level of dribble hand off and denies penetration. Imo, Theis is better at this role. Turner is a better drop defender. Not sure whether we'd be using him as a drop defender.

Spot up shooting
Theis scores 0.94 PPP which ranks in the 42.4th percentile.
Turner scores 1.07 PPP which ranks in the 68.9th percentile.

Block%
Theis 5
Turner 6.4

PnR defense
Theis allows 1.24 PPP which ranks in the 17.8th percentile.
Turner allows 1.22 PPP which ranks in the 18.9th percentile.


All in all, I believe Turner is overpaid. I'd rather have Theis at $5M than Turner at $18M. Frankly, it's not even close.

Even if this is all 100% true, which is hard to say with numbers as they do not tell the whole story, but the C's need "big" depth sorely, exacerbated by the trades for VP and kanter, and the options are dwindling.  The point should not be comparing turner to theis, but rather comparing turner for "free" versus spending the MLE on a guy.  Ass a matter of fact, we probably need 2 bigs(I'd go one pure C and one PF/C if I had to chose) so it is really comparing turner to who we can get with the BAE/Vet min.  Currently I'd get the best deal I can for GH of turner+anyone quickly, and also nail down the best available big for the MLE (baynes, portis, noel, etc) before we have no choices.  Maybe the trade can be expanded to send players to atlanta from both boston and indy and the c's get turner and collins...

[Somebody]

One other piece to consider when making these comparisons is that Turner was forced into the wrong role for him last season because of the emergence of Sabonis. In 2019 Turner was in conversation for DPOY. I'm seeing some articles from a year ago touting Turner's p&r defense as stellar not just his rim protection.

If we're comparing last year's numbers, we're comparing Theis in the perfect situation to Turner in a bad situation (at least as his role is concerned). That matters.

In a drop scheme against RS competition. There has been evidence in recent years that drop bigs get their defensive value somewhat eroded against teams that have guards who can really shoot coming off the high PnR, and Turner didn't look great against Miami this year who had a bit of that as well as a powerful big (Turner looked really bad against Bam at times, he's not going to come in and be our answer to Embiid/AD/Jokic/KAT/Bam). I do concede that the metrics this year show Theis' value in an ideal situation while Turner's show his value in a meh one, but I'm sceptical of curving them so much that you come to the conclusion that Turner is a much superior player.

[GreenWarrior]

Meanwhile the 6ers just got dwight howard. I know I won't convince anyone of this here but we could've used a player like that because he is better than anything we have...even at this point in his career.

There’s a reason why Howard has bounced around every year recently. He’s not a great team guy.

Ohh I forgot we can't disturb the chemistry....