Statistically Ranking Theis to Last Years Centers and comparing with Turner

[Darth_Yoda]

Qualifiers are all Centers who played at least 20 games and 18 minutes per game in those 20 games.

Results yielded 51 results.

Here is way the underrated Daniel Theis ranked.

Offensive Rating: 14th at 111.
Turner 107 ranked 36

Defensive Rating: 4th at 104
Turner 106.7 ranked 16

Net Rating 5th at +7
Turner 26th and .4

Assist % 24th at 10.4%
Turner 44t at 5.7%

Assist to Turnover% 5th at 2.06%
Turner 41st at 0.85%

Rebound % 33th at 12.9%
Turner 44th at 10.9%

EFG% 14th at 60.3%
Turner 36th at 53%

TS% 14th at 63.1%
Turner 36th at 56.6%

Steal% 37th at 13.4%
Turner 23rd at 16.4%

Block % 24th at 43.3%
Turner 6th at 57.4%

DWS 13th at .105
Turner 14th at .104

3 pointers attempted 24th at 1.5
Turner 9th at 4

3pt% 21st at 33.3%
Turner 18th at 34.4%

[Somebody]

Individual ORTG/DRTG and net rating can be replaced by better alternatives such as RAPM/RAPTOR/RPM.

DRAPTOR:
Theis - +2.0
Turner - +1.7

3-year DRAPM:
Theis - +0.79
Turner - +1.86

DRPM:
Theis - +4.45
Turner - +2.90

Not much separates them defensively tbh, box data would suggest that Turner is a better rim protector while Theis is a better defender on the perimeter. I guess I would take Turner over Theis due to the latter having played in a limited role the past few seasons, but the gap between them is overrated on this forum when you consider that drop defenders now have some of their regular season value chipped away come playoff time (in general it's nowhere near what the +/- data in the past couple of playoff runs would suggest, but there are certain matchups in the playoffs that can really expose drop defenders).

If you're interested in comparing them offensively, the above data paint them as slightly negative/neutral offensive players while the box data and the eye test suggest that Turner is the better shooter and Theis is the better passer/lob finisher. Turner's profile is again more impressive due to playing heavy minutes on some pretty good teams, but the gap between them isn't all that large.

[pearljammer10]

Theis is best suited as a back up big for 20 minutes a game. He can do exactly what he is doing for us, shifted to that role. Turner would be a better starter. The versatility with a front court of Tatum/Turner/Theis/Kanter/Both Williams is fantastic. Realistically almost any two of them could play together on the court at anytime.

[Darth_Yoda]

Individual ORTG/DRTG and net rating can be replaced by better alternatives such as RAPM/RAPTOR/RPM.

DRAPTOR:
Theis - +2.0
Turner - +1.7

3-year DRAPM:
Theis - +0.79
Turner - +1.86

DRPM:
Theis - +4.45
Turner - +2.90

Not much separates them defensively tbh, box data would suggest that Turner is a better rim protector while Theis is a better defender on the perimeter. I guess I would take Turner over Theis due to the latter having played in a limited role the past few seasons, but the gap between them is overrated on this forum when you consider that drop defenders now have some of their regular season value chipped away come playoff time (in general it's nowhere near what the +/- data in the past couple of playoff runs would suggest, but there are certain matchups in the playoffs that can really expose drop defenders).

If you're interested in comparing them offensively, the above data paint them as slightly negative/neutral offensive players while the box data and the eye test suggest that Turner is the better shooter and Theis is the better passer/lob finisher. Turner's profile is again more impressive due to playing heavy minutes on some pretty good teams, but the gap between them isn't all that large.

TP, Nice

I couldn't find a source to compare those numbers to the rest of the league with "relative" ease so I just left them out.

[NKY fan]

I think theis has proven that he is more than reliable at his role... we should probably replace his team option $5mill with a 4 year deal at $6m per year... will be huge for the team going forward

[footey]

We won't win an NBA championship with Daniel Theis as our starting center.

[Darth_Yoda]

We won't win an NBA championship with Daniel Theis as our starting center.

Or kemba as our Point Guard.

[BitterJim]

We won't win an NBA championship with Daniel Theis as our starting center.

*citation needed

[Tr1boy]

Qualifiers are all Centers who played at least 20 games and 18 minutes per game in those 20 games.

Results yielded 51 results.

Here is way the underrated Daniel Theis ranked.

Offensive Rating: 14th at 111.
Turner 107 ranked 36

Defensive Rating: 4th at 104
Turner 106.7 ranked 16

Net Rating 5th at +7
Turner 26th and .4

Assist % 24th at 10.4%
Turner 44t at 5.7%

Assist to Turnover% 5th at 2.06%
Turner 41st at 0.85%

Rebound % 33th at 12.9%
Turner 44th at 10.9%

EFG% 14th at 60.3%
Turner 36th at 53%

TS% 14th at 63.1%
Turner 36th at 56.6%

Steal% 37th at 13.4%
Turner 23rd at 16.4%

Block % 24th at 43.3%
Turner 6th at 57.4%

DWS 13th at .105
Turner 14th at .104

3 pointers attempted 24th at 1.5
Turner 9th at 4

3pt% 21st at 33.3%
Turner 18th at 34.4%

Thats nice.... End of the day, can you really get the thought out of Bam 2 and ones to completely change the complexion of game 6 with 6 mins to go?

Two years ago Giannis dunking on Theis repeatedly?  He literally told Theis he is coming from half court and Theis still got dunked on.

It is demoralizing for the team

It is not Theis fault. But why does he need to play big min/start?? He is a role big or third big at best.

Best is to try to obtain a higher skilled/physical talent.

Noel, Giles etc.

[PhoSita]

We won't win an NBA championship with Daniel Theis as our starting center.

Or kemba as our Point Guard.

! This claim is disputed.

[wdleehi]

Here is a challenge for you stat guys:


Can you compare how Turner does against the big men Theis struggles against?


To me, unless Turner is clearly better against those guys, what does he actually add to the roster at that price?

[Somebody]

Qualifiers are all Centers who played at least 20 games and 18 minutes per game in those 20 games.

Results yielded 51 results.

Here is way the underrated Daniel Theis ranked.

Offensive Rating: 14th at 111.
Turner 107 ranked 36

Defensive Rating: 4th at 104
Turner 106.7 ranked 16

Net Rating 5th at +7
Turner 26th and .4

Assist % 24th at 10.4%
Turner 44t at 5.7%

Assist to Turnover% 5th at 2.06%
Turner 41st at 0.85%

Rebound % 33th at 12.9%
Turner 44th at 10.9%

EFG% 14th at 60.3%
Turner 36th at 53%

TS% 14th at 63.1%
Turner 36th at 56.6%

Steal% 37th at 13.4%
Turner 23rd at 16.4%

Block % 24th at 43.3%
Turner 6th at 57.4%

DWS 13th at .105
Turner 14th at .104

3 pointers attempted 24th at 1.5
Turner 9th at 4

3pt% 21st at 33.3%
Turner 18th at 34.4%

Thats nice.... End of the day, can you really get the thought out of Bam 2 and ones to completely change the complexion of game 6 with 6 mins to go?

Two years ago Giannis dunking on Theis repeatedly?  He literally told Theis he is coming from half court and Theis still got dunked on.

It is demoralizing for the team

It is not Theis fault. But why does he need to play big min/start?? He is a role big or third big at best.

Best is to try to obtain a higher skilled/physical talent.

Noel, Giles etc.

Or we can actually put Grant on Bam and Kanter/Baynes on Giannis. This is like blaming David Robinson for being "unable" to defend Hakeem because the latter's offensive skillset was the perfect storm for picking apart the former's ATG defence, the Spurs could've put Rodman on Hakeem in spurts instead of benching the lad

[mrceltics2013]

We won't win an NBA championship with Daniel Theis as our starting center.

Or kemba as our Point Guard.

! This claim is disputed.

Theis I believe you can win with, Kemba.... no

[Somebody]

Here is a challenge for you stat guys:


Can you compare how Turner does against the big men Theis struggles against?


To me, unless Turner is clearly better against those guys, what does he actually add to the roster at that price?

He doesn't do much better than Theis from what I know, I remember his h2h numbers against the behemoths of the league not being that great (can be seen from the eye test, he's a pretty slender shot blocker who struggles against power).

[nyceltsfan]

Statistically ranking Theis compared to other centers discounts the impact that the coach, team and system have on those numbers.  If you look at how some people played here vs. other locations, you will generally notice the positive impact Brad Stevens, Celtic culture and other players have had on the players being evaluated.  Jordon Crawford was a player of the month (I think) under Brad Stevens and literally did nothing anywhere else.  Evan Turner was made useful here and got a huge contract from Portland and stopped producing there.  Jae Crowder was unleashed in Boston.  IT4 never played better than he did in Boston.  Aaron Baynes got better here before taking his talents to Phoenix.

My point is that if Turner is potentially starting off with more raw talent than Theis, who is to say that Brad Stevens will not find better use of that talent?  Turner has some fantastic tools and I would bet that he can be better than Theis under the same system and with the same teammates.

Obviously we can all debate whether my comment is true or false and Danny Ainge (if given the opportunity by Hayward) will have the final say as to whether or not he believes it to be true, but in order to make a comparison, the situations need to be equalized.