Ainge's no-trade promise to Hayward will determine Gordon's fate as Celtic

[footey]

Gordon Hayward wants to win an NBA Championship, and his first choice is likely with the Brad Stevens' coached Boston Celtics. He signed here 3 years ago as an UFA. His teammates voted him the most liked player.  He seems very comfortable in his role as a play maker with reduced usage, deferring to our two young stars.

I think Hayward will opt in, but only after his agent gets assurances from Danny that Gordon won't be traded before the season.  If Danny can't make that promise to him, Gordon faces several choices:

1. Opt out, but only if Celtics offer him an extended deal with decent money, and assurances he won't get traded for at least another season. If no such assurances, I question Gordon agreeing to do this. Would you want to go back to Utah??

2. Opt out and sign with a team with a lot of cap space.  Only teams that do have this space are either terrible (ATL, Knicks, Detroit, Charlotte) or are likely to keep space until 2021 Freak Sweepstakes (Heat). Only wild card I see here is PHX Suns, who actually might be very intriguing to Hayward as second banana to Booker.  I'd keep a watch on this, I haven't seen anyone report this as a possible destination for him.

3. Opt in, on a sign a trade, in which Celts agree to trade him to a team that Hayward wants to go to. Indiana comes up the most here, logically, since he and his wife grew up there, they own a house there, and the Pacers have some interesting trade capital (Daniels, Oladipo).   

So really, it will all boil down to whether Ainge can make Hayward and his agent feel comfortable that Danny won't trade Gordon next season. If he makes that promise, I see Hayward either opting in (most likely due to $$), or opting out and signing extension with Boston. If Danny is unwilling to make that promise, then Gordon and his agent will test the waters on FA, and either (a) opt out and sign 4 year deal with Suns with player option for year 4 at $100 mm plus, or (b) threaten to opt out unless Celtics trade Hayward to his desired destination (probably Pacers).

What do you think?

[footey]

Addendum:

I based my analysis of the Suns having cap space on the following report from HoopsHype:

Phoenix Suns: $25 million

The Suns can generate as much as $24.6 million in cap space if they renounce all their free agent cap holds and decline all their player options. This would mean likely parting ways with Dario Saric, Aron Baynes, Frank Kaminsky, Elie Okobo, and Cheick Diallo. They could opt to keep a combination of these players, but with the chance to have close to $25 million in cap space they might not hesitate to let them all go. Other than Baynes, none of the players have made a strong impression for the Suns. They can hold onto his bird rights which would put their cap space in the $15 million range, but it could be a worthwhile bet for them to let him to test the market, spend cap space, then try to re-sign him for the room mid-level exception projected at $5 million.

[Roy H.]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

[td450]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

$100 million or so on the table for 4 years? Or 3? Gigantic difference.

Assuming the more realistic 4, it would be pretty dumb for Ainge to pass on a player of Hayward's abilities for $100M. Marginally he'd be getting him an extra 3 years at $22M per, which is the best we could hope for.

[Roy H.]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

$100 million or so on the table for 4 years? Or 3? Gigantic difference.

Assuming the more realistic 4, it would be pretty dumb for Ainge to pass on a player of Hayward's abilities for $100M. Marginally he'd be getting him an extra 3 years at $22M per, which is the best we could hope for.

I assume four.  I think he’ll be looking for Horford money, except all guaranteed.  From memory, was that four years, $109 million?  Hayward is younger, but also injury prone and in a tougher market.

But either way, I suspect that Hayward will know with a decent degree of certainty what his market value is before free agency arrives.

[pearljammer10]

I’m not sure what option three means. “Opt in on a sign and trade”?

If he opts in we can trade him, if he opts out we would sign and trade him.

I’m fine with whatever happens as long as it is not the option of Hayward opts our and signs elsewhere. That drastically hurts our future in terms of an extra talent and keeping our financial cap above the line. If Hayward signs out and signs elsewhere with no compensation for us, we essentially only have 15 or so mil to spend on two players (with the MLE and BAE) and vet min signings. Which would make it extremely tough to recoup a talent of Hayward’s caliber.

[footey]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

I think you are oversimplifying the process.  It is more nuanced, and other factors than $$ are involved. 

[Neurotic Guy]

If it's true that Hayward highly prioritizes staying long-term with Boston, then there is some good leverage for Danny.  The value of a no-trade agreement is pretty high I would think under these circumstances.  If GH indicates he really wants to stay long term and wants the security of a no-trade agreement, Danny should absolutely refuse to agree to such an agreement for this year, but open the door to an agreement if GH opts out and would agree to a long-term contract.  In this case 22M a year for 4 years.

Better yet -- a 90M descending contract  (start at 28M end at 18 or 19).

[Roy H.]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

I think you are oversimplifying the process.  It is more nuanced, and other factors than $$ are involved.

As I said, the money has to be reasonably close.

I don’t think it’s all that much more complicated than that.  The other factors usually don’t come into play if the money isn’t there.

[footey]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

I think you are oversimplifying the process.  It is more nuanced, and other factors than $$ are involved.

As I said, the money has to be reasonably close.

I don’t think it’s all that much more complicated than that.  The other factors usually don’t come into play if the money isn’t there.

So if Charlotte offers Gordon 4 years for $110 mm, and Boston tells Gordon best we can do is 4 years at $90 mm, Gordon signs up with Charlotte, and plays out his career with an awful team, while his mates play deep in the playoffs those for years. 

Got it.

[Roy H.]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

I think you are oversimplifying the process.  It is more nuanced, and other factors than $$ are involved.

As I said, the money has to be reasonably close.

I don’t think it’s all that much more complicated than that.  The other factors usually don’t come into play if the money isn’t there.

So if Charlotte offers Gordon 4 years for $110 mm, and Boston tells Gordon best we can do is 4 years at $90 mm, Gordon signs up with Charlotte, and plays out his career with an awful team, while his mates play deep in the playoffs those for years. 

Got it.

Probably.  $20 million is a lot of money, and he already signed in Charlotte once if memory serves.  They were pretty terrible back then, but it didn’t stop GH from signing an offer sheet.

I know that it shocks some, but people generally don’t like to work for significantly less than their market value:

[liam]

Addendum:

I based my analysis of the Suns having cap space on the following report from HoopsHype:

Phoenix Suns: $25 million

The Suns can generate as much as $24.6 million in cap space if they renounce all their free agent cap holds and decline all their player options. This would mean likely parting ways with Dario Saric, Aron Baynes, Frank Kaminsky, Elie Okobo, and Cheick Diallo. They could opt to keep a combination of these players, but with the chance to have close to $25 million in cap space they might not hesitate to let them all go. Other than Baynes, none of the players have made a strong impression for the Suns. They can hold onto his bird rights which would put their cap space in the $15 million range, but it could be a worthwhile bet for them to let him to test the market, spend cap space, then try to re-sign him for the room mid-level exception projected at $5 million.

It would be nice to get Baynes, Saric, Kaminsky and Diallo back in trade....

[footey]

I think that Gordon’s agent is going to illegally illicit offers on Gordon before his opt out deadline, because that’s what every team and agent engages in.

If there is $100 million or so on the table, he’ll opt out.  Whether he stays in Boston depends on whether Danny will come reasonably close to matching salary.

I think you are oversimplifying the process.  It is more nuanced, and other factors than $$ are involved.

As I said, the money has to be reasonably close.

I don’t think it’s all that much more complicated than that.  The other factors usually don’t come into play if the money isn’t there.

So if Charlotte offers Gordon 4 years for $110 mm, and Boston tells Gordon best we can do is 4 years at $90 mm, Gordon signs up with Charlotte, and plays out his career with an awful team, while his mates play deep in the playoffs those for years. 

Got it.

Probably.  $20 million is a lot of money, and he already signed in Charlotte once if memory serves.  They were pretty terrible back then, but it didn’t stop GH from signing an offer sheet.

I know that it shocks some, but people generally don’t like to work for significantly less than their market value:

Yes, but there are diminishing returns at some point. He will have earned over $200 mm before his next contract (if you count his remaining $34 mm).   An extra $20mm is a lot for the average person but not so for those in that earnings category. The Celtics should be able to negotiate some home/contender discount.   

But who am I to say he should just be happy here for $20mm less? 

I would be surprised if Hayward opts out and signs with anyone but Boston and, maybe, Phoenix. 

[LilRip]

The more I think about this Hayward situation, the more I’m convinced he’ll opt out. Someone is going to offer him good money. Maybe not the max but something close to it. And outside of the Knicks, those other teams in the OP are likely great destinations for him.

I mean, let’s review: GH signed with the C’s because we were offering him the max and we had just acquired Kyrie (plus we had Horford). The hype was real and the decision was likely a no brainer. Why wouldn’t you join a potentially great team while still getting paid?

I think the narrative of him willing to take a discount to play for CBS and all this “unfinished business” talk is fan/media driven. Hayward is likely going to follow the money, much like many have before him and that’s fine. He’s played the good soldier, kept his head down, and accepted his diminished role on our team.

The reason things like Player Options exist is to give players some flexibility because they do want to make changes in their careers. Not everyone loves the C’s as much as we do and we can’t expect that players will want to take a 20% discount to stay here just because we hypothetically would.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Hayward will not be giving the C's any home town discounts...He could have signed here for a little less 3 years ago and helped the team's roster...but he got the absolute Max that he could.