One Third of Season In - Taking Stock of the Celtics (Merged)

[gouki88]

Given that we've had Hayward, Brown, Kanter, Smart and Kemba all miss time I would have never thought 15-5 would be within reach.

Our defence is really good, we have 4 20PPG threats when we're healthy, and we've had guys like Wanamaker and Smart take leaps. Brad is also doing better this year, and Kemba is a huge upgrade defensively over Kyrie, which I think is important to note.

Legit threat to make it out of the East I think

[Fierce1]

Given that we've had Hayward, Brown, Kanter, Smart and Kemba all miss time I would have never thought 15-5 would be within reach.

Our defence is really good, we have 4 20PPG threats when we're healthy, and we've had guys like Wanamaker and Smart take leaps. Brad is also doing better this year, and Kemba is a huge upgrade defensively over Kyrie, which I think is important to note.

Legit threat to make it out of the East I think

I think once the Celts upgrade the Center position, the Celts will be legit to make it out of the east.

Right now the Celts still struggle against bigger teams.

The Heat with a 6-9 Adebayo at Center, were no match for the Celts.

Theis survived against Adebayo.
But Theis is no match for those 6-11 Centers like Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan.

[Somebody]

Given that we've had Hayward, Brown, Kanter, Smart and Kemba all miss time I would have never thought 15-5 would be within reach.

Our defence is really good, we have 4 20PPG threats when we're healthy, and we've had guys like Wanamaker and Smart take leaps. Brad is also doing better this year, and Kemba is a huge upgrade defensively over Kyrie, which I think is important to note.

Legit threat to make it out of the East I think

I think once the Celts upgrade the Center position, the Celts will be legit to make it out of the east.

Right now the Celts still struggle against bigger teams.

The Heat with a 6-9 Adebayo at Center, were no match for the Celts.

Theis survived against Adebayo.
But Theis is no match for those 6-11 Centers like Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan.

Those teams can't keep up with the other four guys we have on the court though. Our only real concerns in the East are probably Philadelphia (I think the defence would make them a better playoff team) and Milwaukee (Giannis lol).

[Fierce1]

Given that we've had Hayward, Brown, Kanter, Smart and Kemba all miss time I would have never thought 15-5 would be within reach.

Our defence is really good, we have 4 20PPG threats when we're healthy, and we've had guys like Wanamaker and Smart take leaps. Brad is also doing better this year, and Kemba is a huge upgrade defensively over Kyrie, which I think is important to note.

Legit threat to make it out of the East I think

I think once the Celts upgrade the Center position, the Celts will be legit to make it out of the east.

Right now the Celts still struggle against bigger teams.

The Heat with a 6-9 Adebayo at Center, were no match for the Celts.

Theis survived against Adebayo.
But Theis is no match for those 6-11 Centers like Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan.

Those teams can't keep up with the other four guys we have on the court though. Our only real concerns in the East are probably Philadelphia (I think the defence would make them a better playoff team) and Milwaukee (Giannis lol).

Yeah, Philly and Milwaukee included.

What I'm pointing out is if the opposing team has a quality big man, Theis and our other Centers can't handle them.

But that will change if Ainge can find a quality big man on or before the trade deadline.

[Somebody]

Given that we've had Hayward, Brown, Kanter, Smart and Kemba all miss time I would have never thought 15-5 would be within reach.

Our defence is really good, we have 4 20PPG threats when we're healthy, and we've had guys like Wanamaker and Smart take leaps. Brad is also doing better this year, and Kemba is a huge upgrade defensively over Kyrie, which I think is important to note.

Legit threat to make it out of the East I think

I think once the Celts upgrade the Center position, the Celts will be legit to make it out of the east.

Right now the Celts still struggle against bigger teams.

The Heat with a 6-9 Adebayo at Center, were no match for the Celts.

Theis survived against Adebayo.
But Theis is no match for those 6-11 Centers like Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan.

Those teams can't keep up with the other four guys we have on the court though. Our only real concerns in the East are probably Philadelphia (I think the defence would make them a better playoff team) and Milwaukee (Giannis lol).

Yeah, Philly and Milwaukee included.

What I'm pointing out is if the opposing team has a quality big man, Theis and our other Centers can't handle them.

But that will change if Ainge can find a quality big man on or before the trade deadline.

I'm strangely confident in Theis, but we'll see. I feel that Kanter can bang with Embiid if we're up against Philly, and a combination of throwing Smart/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Theis/both Williams/Semi on Giannis will slow him down somewhat. I think a full strength Celtics team will be reliant on outgunning their opponents if they make a title run.

[Fierce1]

Given that we've had Hayward, Brown, Kanter, Smart and Kemba all miss time I would have never thought 15-5 would be within reach.

Our defence is really good, we have 4 20PPG threats when we're healthy, and we've had guys like Wanamaker and Smart take leaps. Brad is also doing better this year, and Kemba is a huge upgrade defensively over Kyrie, which I think is important to note.

Legit threat to make it out of the East I think

I think once the Celts upgrade the Center position, the Celts will be legit to make it out of the east.

Right now the Celts still struggle against bigger teams.

The Heat with a 6-9 Adebayo at Center, were no match for the Celts.

Theis survived against Adebayo.
But Theis is no match for those 6-11 Centers like Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan.

Those teams can't keep up with the other four guys we have on the court though. Our only real concerns in the East are probably Philadelphia (I think the defence would make them a better playoff team) and Milwaukee (Giannis lol).

Yeah, Philly and Milwaukee included.

What I'm pointing out is if the opposing team has a quality big man, Theis and our other Centers can't handle them.

But that will change if Ainge can find a quality big man on or before the trade deadline.

I'm strangely confident in Theis, but we'll see. I feel that Kanter can bang with Embiid if we're up against Philly, and a combination of throwing Smart/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Theis/both Williams/Semi on Giannis will slow him down somewhat. I think a full strength Celtics team will be reliant on outgunning their opponents if they make a title run.

Kanter doesn't have a problem defending bigs like Embiid 1 on 1.

It's when Kanter is forced to defend the pick and roll or when switches are made that Kanter gets in trouble.

More often than not, Kanter gives the guards open layups because Kanter is afraid of leaving his man.
Kanter is horrible on defense if he's not guarding the big 1 on 1.

Theis is actually very good.
But he's just overmatched if the opposing big is taller and bigger.

[Sophomore]

Given that we've had Hayward, Brown, Kanter, Smart and Kemba all miss time I would have never thought 15-5 would be within reach.

Our defence is really good, we have 4 20PPG threats when we're healthy, and we've had guys like Wanamaker and Smart take leaps. Brad is also doing better this year, and Kemba is a huge upgrade defensively over Kyrie, which I think is important to note.

Legit threat to make it out of the East I think

I think once the Celts upgrade the Center position, the Celts will be legit to make it out of the east.

Right now the Celts still struggle against bigger teams.

The Heat with a 6-9 Adebayo at Center, were no match for the Celts.

Theis survived against Adebayo.
But Theis is no match for those 6-11 Centers like Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan.

Those teams can't keep up with the other four guys we have on the court though. Our only real concerns in the East are probably Philadelphia (I think the defence would make them a better playoff team) and Milwaukee (Giannis lol).

Yeah, Philly and Milwaukee included.

What I'm pointing out is if the opposing team has a quality big man, Theis and our other Centers can't handle them.

But that will change if Ainge can find a quality big man on or before the trade deadline.

I'm strangely confident in Theis, but we'll see. I feel that Kanter can bang with Embiid if we're up against Philly, and a combination of throwing Smart/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Theis/both Williams/Semi on Giannis will slow him down somewhat. I think a full strength Celtics team will be reliant on outgunning their opponents if they make a title run.

Kanter doesn't have a problem defending bigs like Embiid 1 on 1.

It's when Kanter is forced to defend the pick and roll or when switches are made that Kanter gets in trouble.

More often than not, Kanter gives the guards open layups because Kanter is afraid of leaving his man.
Kanter is horrible on defense if he's not guarding the big 1 on 1.

Theis is actually very good.
But he's just overmatched if the opposing big is taller and bigger.

Agree with all this - and when Boston plays Philly Kanter can play drop coverage when Simmons runs the p and r (shoot another 3, you coward!) or the team can help off the other Philly non shooters as needed.

[saltlover]

One thing I find interesting about the team is how little scoring comes from the bench.  At the same time, the team still plays well overall with many of the bench guys because only a couple of them are on the floor at any time.  This leaves the scoring to the starters, while the bench guys pick up their defensive assignments and rotate the ball on offense.

There was some concern that there still wouldn’t be enough shots for Kemba/Tatum/Brown/Hayward, but I guess we didn’t figure on the rest of the team not shooting at all!  57 shots went to Brown/Tatum/Walker tonight, while the other 9 players only attempted 23 shots, despite accounting for almost 60% of the minutes.

It seems to be working well enough for now.  We’re on a 60-win pace while:

- having 12 road games vs 8 home games
- playing each of the other top Eastern teams once
- playing 4 games against current Western playoff teams
- our top 5 players missing roughly 20% of their total possible games (17 missed games out of 100, plus three mid-game exits).

Nothing about our current record feels particularly unsustainable.  We’re 2-2 in one-possession games, so we’ve had average luck.  We’ve dealt with significant but not overwhelming injuries, played a schedule that has contained about 1/4th of our toughest games, and was road-heavy.  We’ve already played 40% of our road games vs. the West.

55 to 60 wins feels legitimately obtainable, as does the top-2 seed in the conference that should go along with it.

The playoffs is a bit about matchups, and I don’t think we have enough data to say how we match up with any particular team, so I’m not too worried about that at this point.

[Somebody]

One thing I find interesting about the team is how little scoring comes from the bench.  At the same time, the team still plays well overall with many of the bench guys because only a couple of them are on the floor at any time.  This leaves the scoring to the starters, while the bench guys pick up their defensive assignments and rotate the ball on offense.

There was some concern that there still wouldn’t be enough shots for Kemba/Tatum/Brown/Hayward, but I guess we didn’t figure on the rest of the team not shooting at all!  57 shots went to Brown/Tatum/Walker tonight, while the other 9 players only attempted 23 shots, despite accounting for almost 60% of the minutes.

It seems to be working well enough for now.  We’re on a 60-win pace while:

- having 12 road games vs 8 home games
- playing each of the other top Eastern teams once
- playing 4 games against current Western playoff teams
- our top 5 players missing roughly 20% of their total possible games (17 missed games out of 100, plus three mid-game exits).

Nothing about our current record feels particularly unsustainable.  We’re 2-2 in one-possession games, so we’ve had average luck.  We’ve dealt with significant but not overwhelming injuries, played a schedule that has contained about 1/4th of our toughest games, and was road-heavy.  We’ve already played 40% of our road games vs. the West.

55 to 60 wins feels legitimately obtainable, as does the top-2 seed in the conference that should go along with it.

The playoffs is a bit about matchups, and I don’t think we have enough data to say how we match up with any particular team, so I’m not too worried about that at this point.

^this. Really optimistic with this year's squad.

[nickagneta]

Noticed something that might be pretty unique:

Through 20 games the Celtics have 4 different players that have scored 30 or more points in a game TWICE already.

Kemba has had 4 games of 30 or more points. Tatum, Brown and Hayward have scored 30 or more twice each.

Through just 20 games to have 4 different players do that has to be some kind of record.

[Somebody]

Noticed something that might be pretty unique:

Through 20 games the Celtics have 4 different players that have scored 30 or more points in a game TWICE already.

Kemba has had 4 games of 30 or more points. Tatum, Brown and Hayward have scored 30 or more twice each.

Through just 20 games to have 4 different players do that has to be some kind of record.

Yeah it's really balanced scoring among our big 4. I think we'll break the mould of what people usually expect in contenders if we're at full strength in the playoffs, this team can cobble just enough offence and defence to beat the best team in the playoffs imo.

[PhoSita]

15-5.  Feels a lot better than last season, doesn't it?  That's a 62 win pace, by the way.  No big deal.

This tends to be a good time to check in on how the team is doing.   What are they good at?  What are they not so good at?  How do they compare to the other teams in the league?

For starters, which teams in the league look like legitimate contenders?  Historically, contending for a title usually requires that a team have a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense.  Ideally you want one of those two to be elite, i.e. top 3-5.

Which teams are top 10 in both categories?

Clippers (10th defense, 8th offense)
Celtics(6th defense, 10th offense)
Bucks (3rd defense, 2nd offense)
Raptors (2nd defense, 7th offense)
Lakers (1st defense, 6th offense)

Other notables:

Dallas and Houston are at the top of the league offensively but are just about average defensively.

Denver, Philadelphia, and Utah are excellent defensively but are much closer to the bottom of the league than the top on offense.

Miami and Indiana are top 10 defensively and are actually relatively close to the top 10 on offense, as well.

Key takeaway: the Celts look like a contender, at least so far.
 
Other key takeaway: the Bucks and Lakers look like the class of the league, with the Raptors surprisingly in the mix as well.


Now let's take a look at the Celtics specifically.  Here I like to focus on the "four factors" -- shooting efficiency, rebounding, free throws, and turnovers.

The Celts are not a great shooting team.  They're 22nd in the league in Effective Field Goal Percentage (50.9%); they are 23rd on two pointers (exactly 50%) and 21st on three pointers (34.8%).  They are in the top half of the league in terms of the percentage of their shots that they take from three (38.8%).  They are about average in terms of points in the paint (15th).

Thankfully, the Celts have improved in a major way in an area that was one of their biggest weakness last year: free throws.  The Celts are 12th in the league in the percentage of free throws attempted per offensive play (20.6%).  When they get to the line, the Celts are hitting those shots -- they're 7th in the league with a 80.1% free throw percentage.  Last year, I seem to recall the Celts were near the bottom of the league in this category.

Defensively, the Celts are allowing the 7th best EFG% by opponents (50.4%), and despite the Buddy Hields of the world, they are 6th best in opponent 3P% (34.2%).  They're also 9th in opponent 2P%.  It helps as well that the Celts are doing a decent job of not giving their opponents too many freebies -- they're around the middle of the pack (14th) in opponent free throws per offensive play.  Especially notable is the fact that the Celts are 2nd best in the league, just behind Milwaukee, in opponent points in the paint per game.  Tell me again why they so desperately need to upgrade at center?

Another weak area for the Celtics in the past has been grabbing boards.  This year, the Celts are 7th in offensive rebounding percentage (23.5%).  I suppose Enes Kanter has something to do with that, but it's been a team effort.  The consistent effort and athleticism across the roster has been very noticeable and refreshing. 

Unfortunately, the defensive glass is a weak point.  The Celts are 22nd in the league in defensive rebounding percentage (76.3%).  That could come back to bite them in a playoff series against Brooklyn (7th), Philadelphia (13th), Indiana (14th), or if they were to make the Finals against the Clippers (2nd) or the Lakers (9th).

Let's get back to the positive though, shall we?  The Celts are the 2nd best  team in the league in terms of limiting turnovers, just a hair behind Dallas.  The Celts are also 2nd best in the league at forcing opponent turnovers, tied with the Lakers at 16.2%.  The Celts are converting those turnovers into points fairly effectively; they're 8th in the league in fastbreak points per game, though they are only 19th in fastbreak efficiency.


TLDR:

The Celts are a mediocre shooting team, but they get to the free throw line, protect the ball, force a lot of turnovers, and convert a good amount of fast breaks.  Defensively, they protect the paint, defend shots well in general, and don't send their opponents to the line too much.  However, they're weak on the defensive glass.

Best version of this team --- Their relentless energy on both ends results in a lot of turnovers, free throws, and second chance opportunities.

Worst version of this team --- They brick a ton of shots and allow the opponent too many second chances.


Overall, I think there's a lot to feel good about, especially compared to last year.  What are some trends or notable developments that you want to highlight at the 20 game mark?

[Moranis]

Noticed something that might be pretty unique:

Through 20 games the Celtics have 4 different players that have scored 30 or more points in a game TWICE already.

Kemba has had 4 games of 30 or more points. Tatum, Brown and Hayward have scored 30 or more twice each.

Through just 20 games to have 4 different players do that has to be some kind of record.

Clippers have done it this year.  They did it by game 17 when Harrell got his 2nd 30+ point game.

[nickagneta]

Also, let's take into consideration this team is 15-5 after going on a long West coast trip, have missed a whole bunch of player games from their top 5 players and have wins over:

Milwaukee
Toronto
Miami
Dallas

Who are a combined 64-20!

Also, gotta love that Kemba, Brown and Tatum have the three highest offensive ratings in the 4th quarter in the entire league.

[keevsnick]

One thing I find interesting about the team is how little scoring comes from the bench.  At the same time, the team still plays well overall with many of the bench guys because only a couple of them are on the floor at any time.  This leaves the scoring to the starters, while the bench guys pick up their defensive assignments and rotate the ball on offense.

There was some concern that there still wouldn’t be enough shots for Kemba/Tatum/Brown/Hayward, but I guess we didn’t figure on the rest of the team not shooting at all!  57 shots went to Brown/Tatum/Walker tonight, while the other 9 players only attempted 23 shots, despite accounting for almost 60% of the minutes.

It seems to be working well enough for now.  We’re on a 60-win pace while:

- having 12 road games vs 8 home games
- playing each of the other top Eastern teams once
- playing 4 games against current Western playoff teams
- our top 5 players missing roughly 20% of their total possible games (17 missed games out of 100, plus three mid-game exits).

Nothing about our current record feels particularly unsustainable.  We’re 2-2 in one-possession games, so we’ve had average luck.  We’ve dealt with significant but not overwhelming injuries, played a schedule that has contained about 1/4th of our toughest games, and was road-heavy.  We’ve already played 40% of our road games vs. the West.

55 to 60 wins feels legitimately obtainable, as does the top-2 seed in the conference that should go along with it.

The playoffs is a bit about matchups, and I don’t think we have enough data to say how we match up with any particular team, so I’m not too worried about that at this point.

Just to back some of this up our SOS is according to ESPN 15th, so right around average. So the 15-5 record is probably pretty representative of their overall play. 10 of lets say their 12 rotations guys have played 17 or more of 20 total games this year the exceptions being Kanter and Hayward. So while the Hayward injury hurts overall the injuries have neither been unsustainably heavy or light.

Their shooting isn't incredibly hot either. They are 11 in 3pnt attempts per game and 21st in 3pnt%, which actually seems like it could improve if guys like GWill, Edwards start hitting shots. They are also 8th in FTM and 14th in FTA per game which is actually solid and speaks more to the fact they are attacking the paint much better than last year.

They are actually allowing a tad more 3pnt attempt than I expected, the fifth most in the league, but are allowing the 6th lowest percentage which they've historically been good at as well. So nothing lucky there.