Opinion: The Bucks are in Trouble

[Moranis]

Fantastic win for the C's.  Great comeback, but the C's needed a comeback because the Bucks were up 19.  The Bucks then forgot how to shoot.  Some of that was the C's defense of course, but they also just missed a lot of wide open shots.  It happens.  I wouldn't write their demise quite yet.

I think the game was emblematic of the issues I already saw, but these are things I noticed before last night. It's not just from one game.

What if last season was the anomaly, not the new norm?

They are a streaky shooting team, but at the end of the day they still have the best player in the world and that matters a great deal.  They've also played a pretty tough schedule as Houston, Miami, and Boston are all 3-1 and even the Cavs are 2-2.  So the record of their opponents not against the Bucks is 9-3. 

It is 4 games.  4 games isn't enough to confirm or deny anything about a team.  After 20 games if they are still struggling and look like a middling team, then maybe they are in fact trouble, but I suspect they will have a nice little win streak in there and look more like the 60 win team of last year than a middling team they've looked like thus far.

[Fafnir]

I don't think they're in trouble, they are just unlikely to win 60 games this year. Bledsoe/Lopez had such amazing years repeating that feat was always a stretch.

Just playing Matthews/Korver less and giving DJ Wilson, Dante DiVincenzo, and Pat Connaughton his minutes would help the issue you highlight.

Two things: 1) I don't think Bud intends to play young guys, and 2) Are we sure they are really better options? Aren't those guys fringe NBA players?

I agree that Bud isn't going to sit the veterans until he gives them every chance in the rotation.

Wes Mathews and Kyle Korver are equally fringe at this point. There is something to putting some athleticism and bounce into the lineup, especially when you have shooting at pretty much every other position.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I don't think they're in trouble, they are just unlikely to win 60 games this year. Bledsoe/Lopez had such amazing years repeating that feat was always a stretch.

Just playing Matthews/Korver less and giving DJ Wilson, Dante DiVincenzo, and Pat Connaughton his minutes would help the issue you highlight.

Two things: 1) I don't think Bud intends to play young guys, and 2) Are we sure they are really better options? Aren't those guys fringe NBA players?

Connaughton has his moments against us in the playoff series, so he’s probably not a fringe player.  Not great, but showed he can give 15-20 useful minutes.  Ultimately management would probably like to see the other two get some minutes, as both of their rookie contract options were picked up for next season.

I think they’re really going to miss Brogdon.

Connaughton is a guy. He's fine. He's probably not a fringe player, but I also don't think he's a significant role player. He's just a guy.

I agree about Brogdon. In fact, if you visit their RealGM forum, he is brought up like every other post. They also complain a lot about Giannis' development, Middleton's garbage time stats, and Bud's coaching.

[Fafnir]

I don't think they're in trouble, they are just unlikely to win 60 games this year. Bledsoe/Lopez had such amazing years repeating that feat was always a stretch.

Just playing Matthews/Korver less and giving DJ Wilson, Dante DiVincenzo, and Pat Connaughton their minutes would help the issue you highlight.

I think it would too, but what gets lost in all this I think losing Brogdon is a very underrated loss.  Mirotic also played pretty well for them last year.

I agree that Brogdon is a big loss. He and Middleton were the two stabilizing players who would hit a shot or two to calm things down when things unraveled a bit and Giannis wasn't getting downhill. Now its just Middleton and that probably makes them a higher variance team.

I don't think Mirotic was crucial to what they achieved last year with how he joined mid season and the train was already rolling.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Fantastic win for the C's.  Great comeback, but the C's needed a comeback because the Bucks were up 19.  The Bucks then forgot how to shoot.  Some of that was the C's defense of course, but they also just missed a lot of wide open shots.  It happens.  I wouldn't write their demise quite yet.

I think the game was emblematic of the issues I already saw, but these are things I noticed before last night. It's not just from one game.

What if last season was the anomaly, not the new norm?

They are a streaky shooting team, but at the end of the day they still have the best player in the world and that matters a great deal.  They've also played a pretty tough schedule as Houston, Miami, and Boston are all 3-1 and even the Cavs are 2-2.  So the record of their opponents not against the Bucks is 9-3. 

It is 4 games.  4 games isn't enough to confirm or deny anything about a team.  After 20 games if they are still struggling and look like a middling team, then maybe they are in fact trouble, but I suspect they will have a nice little win streak in there and look more like the 60 win team of last year than a middling team they've looked like thus far.

Everything you said is true. I might lean more toward the 60 win team being an anomaly, but I get what you are saying.

This was something I noticed about their roster construction before the season. It is noticeable without even watching a game. It looks like an issue at this point, but we will see.

[footey]

Last year, if the Bucks hit a cold shooting streak, Giannis would just attack in paint for easy buckets and/or fouls.  Teams are learning how to defend him better, I think starting with Toronto in playoffs.  And if GA continues his poor foul shooting, so what if you hack him.

He is also getting very frustrated with guys drawing offensive fouls on him.  Last night was classic Smart.  Teams like Boston will probably start to play smaller, strong guys against him. Bigger guys are too slow to guard him.  It will still require some doubling, but all in all, we are learning that he is beatable.

Last night was a huge injection of confidence.

[keevsnick]

I'm not gonna lie, coming into this year I wondered if this was one team that might underperform. I mean dont get me wrong Giannis is a beast, but he lacks a truly top flight helper. Last year felt like it broke perfectly for them and I wonder what happens if instead some or most things don't. I still think even then they are probably a high fortyish win team but still, maybe not the true top of the conference  juggernaut some were expecting. Too early to tell tho, their schedule has been tough.

[footey]

I don't think they're in trouble, they are just unlikely to win 60 games this year. Bledsoe/Lopez had such amazing years repeating that feat was always a stretch.

Just playing Matthews/Korver less and giving DJ Wilson, Dante DiVincenzo, and Pat Connaughton his minutes would help the issue you highlight.

Two things: 1) I don't think Bud intends to play young guys, and 2) Are we sure they are really better options? Aren't those guys fringe NBA players?

Connaughton has his moments against us in the playoff series, so he’s probably not a fringe player.  Not great, but showed he can give 15-20 useful minutes.  Ultimately management would probably like to see the other two get some minutes, as both of their rookie contract options were picked up for next season.

I think they’re really going to miss Brogdon.

Connaughton is a guy. He's fine. He's probably not a fringe player, but I also don't think he's a significant role player. He's just a guy.

I agree about Brogdon. In fact, if you visit their RealGM forum, he is brought up like every other post. They also complain a lot about Giannis' development, Middleton's garbage time stats, and Bud's coaching.

The Bucks wiped us out most of the playoff series without Brogdon.  I'm skeptical he would have mattered in a game like last night.  Frankly, he has looked pretty pedestrian/slow for the Pacers so far.  Granted, the Bucks was a better system for him.

Let's also not lose site of the fact that we made our comeback win without our best player this season, Jaylen Brown. 

[tazzmaniac]

I don't think they're in trouble, they are just unlikely to win 60 games this year. Bledsoe/Lopez had such amazing years repeating that feat was always a stretch.

Just playing Matthews/Korver less and giving DJ Wilson, Dante DiVincenzo, and Pat Connaughton their minutes would help the issue you highlight.

I think it would too, but what gets lost in all this I think losing Brogdon is a very underrated loss.  Mirotic also played pretty well for them last year.

Mirotic only played 14 games for them in the regular season and he didn't contribute that much.  In the playoffs, he wasn't good at all. 

[Fafnir]

Overall I think the Bucks are fine. My main concern for them is the pressures of last season and Giannis's impending extension eligibility actually seep into the team's chemistry.

Bud and Giannis need to make sure that doesn't happen.

[fairweatherfan]

There are some interesting points here, but I'd be much more cautious about burying a team that won 60 games and has the most physically dominant player in the league in his prime after a shaky first 4 games. Curious to see if the issues described in OP hold up though.

[saltlover]

I don't think they're in trouble, they are just unlikely to win 60 games this year. Bledsoe/Lopez had such amazing years repeating that feat was always a stretch.

Just playing Matthews/Korver less and giving DJ Wilson, Dante DiVincenzo, and Pat Connaughton his minutes would help the issue you highlight.

Two things: 1) I don't think Bud intends to play young guys, and 2) Are we sure they are really better options? Aren't those guys fringe NBA players?

Connaughton has his moments against us in the playoff series, so he’s probably not a fringe player.  Not great, but showed he can give 15-20 useful minutes.  Ultimately management would probably like to see the other two get some minutes, as both of their rookie contract options were picked up for next season.

I think they’re really going to miss Brogdon.

Connaughton is a guy. He's fine. He's probably not a fringe player, but I also don't think he's a significant role player. He's just a guy.

I agree about Brogdon. In fact, if you visit their RealGM forum, he is brought up like every other post. They also complain a lot about Giannis' development, Middleton's garbage time stats, and Bud's coaching.

The Bucks wiped us out most of the playoff series without Brogdon.  I'm skeptical he would have mattered in a game like last night.  Frankly, he has looked pretty pedestrian/slow for the Pacers so far.  Granted, the Bucks was a better system for him.

Let's also not lose site of the fact that we made our comeback win without our best player this season, Jaylen Brown.

I’m not trying to compare with the playoff series from last year.  The Bucks wiped the floor with us without needing Brogdon, for sure, but there’s a pretty good argument that we didn’t play our best basketball.

But the Bucks replaced Brogdon with Wes Matthews, and that’s a straight-up downgrade to their roster.  They were a 55-win team without Brogdon last year, compared to a 62-win team when he played.  It’s not too difficult to see the loss of Brogdon combined with regression to the mean taking them from 60 to 50ish wins.  Still a very good team, and one that can advance in the playoffs, but lacking in some ways.

[SHAQATTACK]

Giannis would be better fit for Harden than Westbrook .

Several teams will be hot to trot for Giannis .

OKC has the asets .   Heat is a pile of poo , need a complete rebulid

[Donoghus]

They're still a top 2-3 team in the East.  It took a stellar comeback plus some cold shooting by them last night to get the Celtics the win. 

Certainly wouldn't write off that team.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

They're still a top 2-3 team in the East.  It took a stellar comeback plus some cold shooting by them last night to get the Celtics the win. 

Certainly wouldn't write off that team.

No one is writing off anyone. Read the original post please.

I'm not sure they are a top 2-3 team in the East. They were last year, but the year before they were like the 7-8th seed. Maybe last year was the anomaly. Are we absolutely confident they are better than the Sixers, Heat, Celtics, and Raptors? 

This is a team that has no other offense other than throwing up a ton of 3s and Giannis bullying his way into the paint. That's a pretty good recipe, but that's not a good offense. Read the Bucks blogs. They all know it.

And one of my main arguments is that the Bucks' defense is not good. Their team is one of the oldest and slowest in the league.