NBA 2019-2020 season thread

[seancally]

I still have an odd confidence that we can beat Toronto, even if without homecourt advantage. There's no Kawhi Leonard on that team anymore and I feel that'll be the difference in the playoffs.

For us, our job is to stay in the Top-3 of the conference, and to try and be as healthy as possible.

Not me.  After Milwaukee, they scare me the most. I would rather play the Sixers than the Raptors. Likely to see a scenerio where we face Toronto in 2nd round. It will be a battle.

I mean the only other contender for scaring us the most is Miami and we've handled them easily so far, so it's not a tough choice. But I agree. My fear list for knocking us out in the East goes Milwaukee...Huge Gap...Toronto, Philly, Miami, Indy.

And here's their streak:



Not a lot of winning teams there, though to be fair we had a similar weak stretch about a month ago and didn't take advantage.

I feel much better about our matchup with TOR if Tatum's recent stretch is the new normal, and not an outlier. If he continues that play it puts him on the level of Siakam.

[KGs Knee]

I have no idea if Toronto will hold the 2nd seed, but they certainly are capable.  I'm not really fearing them in the playoffs, though.  They don't really have a true elite 'go to' offensive option.  I think a lower-seeded team could actually take them out in the 1st round potentially.

[Fafnir]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

[Fafnir]

Winning streak against weak teams or not the Raptors are clearly the third best team in the eastern conference at worst. C's have a better point differential and advanced stats profile (but not by a ton), Raptors have a few more wins. This was true before the winning streak took them to the 2 seed and remains true.

Hopefully we catch them because the difference between the Pacers and Magic/Nets is a big one (and HCA in second round) but the C's have a really tough schedule to close the year so we will see.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/league/summary
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020.html

[seancally]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

TP, good point. Siakam still captures the national narrative, I think the early season comparison is still coloring perceptions. My own included.

[nickagneta]

I still have an odd confidence that we can beat Toronto, even if without homecourt advantage. There's no Kawhi Leonard on that team anymore and I feel that'll be the difference in the playoffs.

For us, our job is to stay in the Top-3 of the conference, and to try and be as healthy as possible.

Not me.  After Milwaukee, they scare me the most. I would rather play the Sixers than the Raptors. Likely to see a scenerio where we face Toronto in 2nd round. It will be a battle.

I mean the only other contender for scaring us the most is Miami and we've handled them easily so far, so it's not a tough choice. But I agree. My fear list for knocking us out in the East goes Milwaukee...Huge Gap...Toronto, Philly, Miami, Indy.

And here's their streak:



Not a lot of winning teams there, though to be fair we had a similar weak stretch about a month ago and didn't take advantage.

Boston's streak of winning 10 of 11 is as just impressive, if not more so, IMO.

W Lakers 139-107
W Grizzlies 119-95
W @ Magic 109-98
L @ Pelicans 108-123
W @ Heat 109-101
W Warriors 119-104
W 76ers 116-95
W @ Hawks 123-115
W Magic 116-100
W Hawks 112-107
W @ Thunder 112-111

7 of 11 are playoff teams. 5 of 11 against winning teams. 2 excellent road wins in Miami and OKC.

[Moranis]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

TP, good point. Siakam still captures the national narrative, I think the early season comparison is still coloring perceptions. My own included.

Siakam is also clearly his team's best player.  I think that matters.  Tatum might be, but you could easily argue for Walker and perhaps even Brown.  Siakam is getting nearly 5 shots more a game than Van Vleet and Lowry, while Tatum is only getting 1.5 more than Walker.  That can affect efficiency as well. 

[gift]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

TP, good point. Siakam still captures the national narrative, I think the early season comparison is still coloring perceptions. My own included.

Siakam is also clearly his team's best player.  I think that matters.  Tatum might be, but you could easily argue for Walker and perhaps even Brown.  Siakam is getting nearly 5 shots more a game than Van Vleet and Lowry, while Tatum is only getting 1.5 more than Walker.  That can affect efficiency as well.

Do you say that to mean that Siakam gets more attention from defenses since he takes a higher percentage of shots than his closest quality teammates?

[nickagneta]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

TP, good point. Siakam still captures the national narrative, I think the early season comparison is still coloring perceptions. My own included.

Siakam is also clearly his team's best player.  I think that matters.  Tatum might be, but you could easily argue for Walker and perhaps even Brown.  Siakam is getting nearly 5 shots more a game than Van Vleet and Lowry, while Tatum is only getting 1.5 more than Walker.  That can affect efficiency as well.

You really seem to go out of your way to be contrarian here.

You have been declaring quite often that Tatum is the Celtics best and most impactful player throwing out bunches of metrics showing this but as soon as someone starts to compare Tatum to Siakam, Tatum only might be the Celtics best player? You have been claiming Tatum to be the team's best for months, and now that Tatum is on a role and showing definitively he is the team's best player, suddenly he only might be the best? Don't get that.

Second, Siakam takes only 1 shot more per game than Tatum. 1. Just 1. As you take more shots in a game the chance of getting tired and less efficient exists. But they are taking almost the same amount of shots in about the same amount of minutes played.

What the heck does difference in shots taken from next highest shooter on the team have to do with efficiency? This really just seems like you're making something up to prop up Siakam.

Tatum has consistently averaged about 18 shots per game all year. He has always only taken about 1-1.5 shots more than Kemba and three more than Brown. Yet his efficiency and PPG has risen all year after Tatum started off shooting so poorly. Tatum got more efficient not because of how many shots Kemba, Brown, Hayward, Smart or anyone else was taking but because he started playing smarter and better. I see no correlation between efficiency and how much more or less shots a player takes than someone else on his own team.

[Moranis]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

TP, good point. Siakam still captures the national narrative, I think the early season comparison is still coloring perceptions. My own included.

Siakam is also clearly his team's best player.  I think that matters.  Tatum might be, but you could easily argue for Walker and perhaps even Brown.  Siakam is getting nearly 5 shots more a game than Van Vleet and Lowry, while Tatum is only getting 1.5 more than Walker.  That can affect efficiency as well.

You really seem to go out of your way to be contrarian here.

You have been declaring quite often that Tatum is the Celtics best and most impactful player throwing out bunches of metrics showing this but as soon as someone starts to compare Tatum to Siakam, Tatum only might be the Celtics best player? You have been claiming Tatum to be the team's best for months, and now that Tatum is on a role and showing definitively he is the team's best player, suddenly he only might be the best? Don't get that.

Second, Siakam takes only 1 shot more per game than Tatum. 1. Just 1. As you take more shots in a game the chance of getting tired and less efficient exists. But they are taking almost the same amount of shots in about the same amount of minutes played.

What the heck does difference in shots taken from next highest shooter on the team have to do with efficiency? This really just seems like you're making something up to prop up Siakam.

Tatum has consistently averaged about 18 shots per game all year. He has always only taken about 1-1.5 shots more than Kemba and three more than Brown. Yet his efficiency and PPG has risen all year after Tatum started off shooting so poorly. Tatum got more efficient not because of how many shots Kemba, Brown, Hayward, Smart or anyone else was taking but because he started playing smarter and better. I see no correlation between efficiency and how much more or less shots a player takes than someone else on his own team.

Oh I believe Tatum is Boston's best player, but didn't want to start a discussion about how people think it is Walker. I was trying to soften that, so people didn't object to that classification.  But the main point I was making is that Tatum doesn't face defenses like he is a clear cut #1 guy while Siakam does.  Boston has a pretty effective 4 headed monster.  Tatum leads that, but not by very much.  Toronto is much more Siakam centered.  He gets significantly more shots than 2 and 3 (Van Vleet and Lowry).  Siakam also serves as the safety valve more frequently than Tatum does i.e. the guy taking the "bad" shot with the shot clock expiring.  How you are used, absolutely affects your efficiency.  How defenses defend you, absolutely affects your efficiency, and being your team's clear cut #1 option decreases your efficiency.  Even for high level players.  I mean Anthony Davis has the highest TS% of his career this year (even with some worse 3 point shooting), in part because he is playing next to Lebron James who is more of the offensive focal point.  Durant saw an uptick when he first joined GS setting his career high in TS% (again with a bit lesser 3 point shooting).  This isn't a new concept.  When you are the player teams game plan against, it makes it harder to score.  Tatum is starting to get to that point, but with Walker and Brown on the team, it isn't as much as if he was out there on his own. 

[Somebody]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

TP, good point. Siakam still captures the national narrative, I think the early season comparison is still coloring perceptions. My own included.

Siakam is also clearly his team's best player.  I think that matters.  Tatum might be, but you could easily argue for Walker and perhaps even Brown.  Siakam is getting nearly 5 shots more a game than Van Vleet and Lowry, while Tatum is only getting 1.5 more than Walker.  That can affect efficiency as well.

You really seem to go out of your way to be contrarian here.

You have been declaring quite often that Tatum is the Celtics best and most impactful player throwing out bunches of metrics showing this but as soon as someone starts to compare Tatum to Siakam, Tatum only might be the Celtics best player? You have been claiming Tatum to be the team's best for months, and now that Tatum is on a role and showing definitively he is the team's best player, suddenly he only might be the best? Don't get that.

Second, Siakam takes only 1 shot more per game than Tatum. 1. Just 1. As you take more shots in a game the chance of getting tired and less efficient exists. But they are taking almost the same amount of shots in about the same amount of minutes played.

What the heck does difference in shots taken from next highest shooter on the team have to do with efficiency? This really just seems like you're making something up to prop up Siakam.

Tatum has consistently averaged about 18 shots per game all year. He has always only taken about 1-1.5 shots more than Kemba and three more than Brown. Yet his efficiency and PPG has risen all year after Tatum started off shooting so poorly. Tatum got more efficient not because of how many shots Kemba, Brown, Hayward, Smart or anyone else was taking but because he started playing smarter and better. I see no correlation between efficiency and how much more or less shots a player takes than someone else on his own team.

Oh I believe Tatum is Boston's best player, but didn't want to start a discussion about how people think it is Walker. I was trying to soften that, so people didn't object to that classification.  But the main point I was making is that Tatum doesn't face defenses like he is a clear cut #1 guy while Siakam does.  Boston has a pretty effective 4 headed monster.  Tatum leads that, but not by very much.  Toronto is much more Siakam centered.  He gets significantly more shots than 2 and 3 (Van Vleet and Lowry).  Siakam also serves as the safety valve more frequently than Tatum does i.e. the guy taking the "bad" shot with the shot clock expiring.  How you are used, absolutely affects your efficiency.  How defenses defend you, absolutely affects your efficiency, and being your team's clear cut #1 option decreases your efficiency.  Even for high level players.  I mean Anthony Davis has the highest TS% of his career this year (even with some worse 3 point shooting), in part because he is playing next to Lebron James who is more of the offensive focal point.  Durant saw an uptick when he first joined GS setting his career high in TS% (again with a bit lesser 3 point shooting).  This isn't a new concept.  When you are the player teams game plan against, it makes it harder to score.  Tatum is starting to get to that point, but with Walker and Brown on the team, it isn't as much as if he was out there on his own.

I do agree with you on Siakam being better than Tatum, but isn't it Walker leading Boston's 4 headed monster on offence? He's still our main ballhandler with an elite combination of high level scoring and passing (he's definitely not transcendent, but he has a pretty compelling argument as a top 10 offensive player in the league this season imo). I definitely rate all three of Siakam/Walker/Tatum as bonafide All-Stars though.

[Fafnir]

Tatum has been self creating as much as Siakim. The idea that they are playing some different role is just wrong. Their usage, assisted versus unassisted bucket percentages all profile very similarly.

And while I think Brown/Hayward/Kemba are better than Vanvleet/Ibaka/Lowry in aggregate its not like teams aren't guarding either set of players. If anything the teams offensive success reflects the quality difference more than what Tatum faces defensively (BOS is 3rd in offense and Toronto is 12th per cleaning the glass)

[nickagneta]

Tatum doesn't need to keep his current hot streak to match Siakim, he already has if you look at the whole year averaged together.

Take a look at their overall seasons as of today: http://bkref.com/tiny/EXaiS

Siakim has cooled off a ton. Tatum is now having a more efficient season.

TP, good point. Siakam still captures the national narrative, I think the early season comparison is still coloring perceptions. My own included.

Siakam is also clearly his team's best player.  I think that matters.  Tatum might be, but you could easily argue for Walker and perhaps even Brown.  Siakam is getting nearly 5 shots more a game than Van Vleet and Lowry, while Tatum is only getting 1.5 more than Walker.  That can affect efficiency as well.

You really seem to go out of your way to be contrarian here.

You have been declaring quite often that Tatum is the Celtics best and most impactful player throwing out bunches of metrics showing this but as soon as someone starts to compare Tatum to Siakam, Tatum only might be the Celtics best player? You have been claiming Tatum to be the team's best for months, and now that Tatum is on a role and showing definitively he is the team's best player, suddenly he only might be the best? Don't get that.

Second, Siakam takes only 1 shot more per game than Tatum. 1. Just 1. As you take more shots in a game the chance of getting tired and less efficient exists. But they are taking almost the same amount of shots in about the same amount of minutes played.

What the heck does difference in shots taken from next highest shooter on the team have to do with efficiency? This really just seems like you're making something up to prop up Siakam.

Tatum has consistently averaged about 18 shots per game all year. He has always only taken about 1-1.5 shots more than Kemba and three more than Brown. Yet his efficiency and PPG has risen all year after Tatum started off shooting so poorly. Tatum got more efficient not because of how many shots Kemba, Brown, Hayward, Smart or anyone else was taking but because he started playing smarter and better. I see no correlation between efficiency and how much more or less shots a player takes than someone else on his own team.

Oh I believe Tatum is Boston's best player, but didn't want to start a discussion about how people think it is Walker. I was trying to soften that, so people didn't object to that classification.  But the main point I was making is that Tatum doesn't face defenses like he is a clear cut #1 guy while Siakam does.  Boston has a pretty effective 4 headed monster.  Tatum leads that, but not by very much.  Toronto is much more Siakam centered.  He gets significantly more shots than 2 and 3 (Van Vleet and Lowry).  Siakam also serves as the safety valve more frequently than Tatum does i.e. the guy taking the "bad" shot with the shot clock expiring.  How you are used, absolutely affects your efficiency.  How defenses defend you, absolutely affects your efficiency, and being your team's clear cut #1 option decreases your efficiency.  Even for high level players.  I mean Anthony Davis has the highest TS% of his career this year (even with some worse 3 point shooting), in part because he is playing next to Lebron James who is more of the offensive focal point.  Durant saw an uptick when he first joined GS setting his career high in TS% (again with a bit lesser 3 point shooting).  This isn't a new concept.  When you are the player teams game plan against, it makes it harder to score.  Tatum is starting to get to that point, but with Walker and Brown on the team, it isn't as much as if he was out there on his own.

Thing is, this isn't the playoffs, it's the regular season. There are an awful lot of games you are playing mediocre to really bad teams that either don't give other team's clear cut #1 option that much more, if any more attention than they would a team without a clear number one....or can't do it effectively because they are terrible defensive teams.

Most team's solutions to addressing a team's #1 offensive option is nothing more than putting their best defender on that player. It doesn't matter how many more shots they take than the #2 option the best offensive guy has the best defensive guy. Most likely Siakam and Tatum have had the same players guarding them with very little help or doubling unless it's late in a close game.

I think you are underplaying the amount of attention teams need to give Lowry because he puts up 20 a game while setting up his teammates for 7 assists. In many ways, the best path to beating Toronto is actually shutting down Lowry, not Siakam, so more defensive attention would be on him.

I am just not buying this argument at all.

Siakam and Tatum have similar efficiencies and neither efficiency should be looked at differently simply because Siakim, who takes only 1 shot more per game than Tatum, takes more shots than his team's #2 option than Tatum does his.

[Phantom255x]

I still have an odd confidence that we can beat Toronto, even if without homecourt advantage. There's no Kawhi Leonard on that team anymore and I feel that'll be the difference in the playoffs.

For us, our job is to stay in the Top-3 of the conference, and to try and be as healthy as possible.

Not me.  After Milwaukee, they scare me the most. I would rather play the Sixers than the Raptors. Likely to see a scenerio where we face Toronto in 2nd round. It will be a battle.

I don't disagree, but that's why I say "odd confidence". My gut feeling just thinks despite them being our 2nd biggest threat in the East (after MIL), I think we can take them. Health is the key.

And also, while it's not a "fun choice", I'd prefer playing Toronto in the 2nd round, not MIL.

[Fafnir]

I still have an odd confidence that we can beat Toronto, even if without homecourt advantage. There's no Kawhi Leonard on that team anymore and I feel that'll be the difference in the playoffs.

For us, our job is to stay in the Top-3 of the conference, and to try and be as healthy as possible.

Not me.  After Milwaukee, they scare me the most. I would rather play the Sixers than the Raptors. Likely to see a scenerio where we face Toronto in 2nd round. It will be a battle.

I don't disagree, but that's why I say "odd confidence". My gut feeling just thinks despite them being our 2nd biggest threat in the East (after MIL), I think we can take them. Health is the key.

And also, while it's not a "fun choice", I'd prefer playing Toronto in the 2nd round, not MIL.

Oh 100%. The 2/3 side of the bracket is way better than the 4/5.