Poll

Predict Jaylen's stats this year

13 PPG 4 RPG his career Avg
1 (2.5%)
14.5 PPG  5 RPG his stats at 21 years old
16 (40%)
17 PPG 6 RPG
20 (50%)
20 PPG 7 RPG
3 (7.5%)

Total Members Voted: 40

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Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2019, 10:59:54 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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 Trying to get a feel how much we have to pay JB if we do indeed keep him. We better. Would hate to lose Brown at this young age.
PPG is not the correct question.  He will get what the market dictates.  For example and as discussed in another thread, he should get more than Terry Rozier.

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2019, 11:01:02 AM »

Offline Big333223

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I’d say around 15 / 5.

I don’t care about counting numbers, though. I want to see him make a push for all defense.

This.

And it's hard to imagine his numbers being much better than that. He'll be the 4th option, in all likelihood. He's just not going to get the attempts to average more than that.
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Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2019, 11:11:02 AM »

Offline tstorey_97

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I think 15/6

I ground out some JB numbers from last year. I just went with the playoffs (9 games). I like Brown's game and I think it was illustrated in last year's playoff run. Hayward, of course, had a rough playoff, but gives us some comparison. I understand they are not the "same player" I don't need to be corrected on that. My point is Brown, to the Celtics, is far more valuable than he is being given credit for and nine games last spring makes the point....including the "averages" queried in this post. As we all know, Brown is given consistently "difficult" defensive assignments as he is an "effective defensive player" along with the offensive statistical 'thang' we all play with in these discussions.

The Milwaukee Bucks hammered the Celtics with size and defense and Brown, in my view, had a solid answer to this hammering.

Brown's 9 playoff games 2019 (Pacers/Bux run very good defense)
MPG 29
FGA 87 FGM 44 - 50%
3PA 40 3PM 14 - 35%
FT 23/30 - 76%
AST 10 - 1.1/GM
Reb 52 - 5.7/GM
Pts 115- 12.7GM

Hayward's 9 playoff games
MPG 30
FGA 70 FGM 29 - 41.4%
3PA 24 3PM 9 - 37%
FT 19/19 - 100%
AST 22 - 2.4/GM
REB 36 - 4GM
PTS 86 - 9.5/GM

Looking at the Bux series, I think says something about today's NBA. There wasn't any room for "small ball" was there?

I wish Ainge had been able to get us an answer to this lack of "bigness" and assume he's still on the case.


Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2019, 11:13:52 AM »

Offline Fierce1

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Guys like Tony Allen and Marcus Smart were all good defensively since they entered the league.

It's hard to believe that Jaylen will suddenly become a defensive specialist after 3 seasons.

Jaylen Brown's strength is supposed to be scoring.
Just like his 2nd year in the league.

There's just no way Jaylen will be as good or come close to a defensive player like Marcus Smart.

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2019, 11:18:54 AM »

Online nickagneta

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Guys like Tony Allen and Marcus Smart were all good defensively since they entered the league.

It's hard to believe that Jaylen will suddenly become a defensive specialist after 3 seasons.

Jaylen Brown's strength is supposed to be scoring.
Just like his 2nd year in the league.

There's just no way Jaylen will be as good or come close to a defensive player like Marcus Smart.
Except two years ago when Brown had much better defensive stats than Smart and had more votes for making the All-Defense team.

Brown has the ability to be as good a defender as Smart. He already did it in one season.

The question is can he be that good a defender and still contribute considerably more on offense? I think he can.

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2019, 11:23:11 AM »

Online keevsnick

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Guys like Tony Allen and Marcus Smart were all good defensively since they entered the league.

It's hard to believe that Jaylen will suddenly become a defensive specialist after 3 seasons.

Jaylen Brown's strength is supposed to be scoring.
Just like his 2nd year in the league.

There's just no way Jaylen will be as good or come close to a defensive player like Marcus Smart.
Except two years ago when Brown had much better defensive stats than Smart and had more votes for making the All-Defense team.

Brown has the ability to be as good a defender as Smart. He already did it in one season.

The question is can he be that good a defender and still contribute considerably more on offense? I think he can.

Players can certainly get better on defense, they almost always do. I mean Kawhi, maybe the best defensive perimeter player ever, made his first all NBA team (2nd team) in his third year. Smart in his what fifth year. George in his 3rd, Oladipo in his 5th. I think Brown making all defense in his 4th is possible. Its not like he's not pretty good already.

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2019, 12:18:50 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Guys like Tony Allen and Marcus Smart were all good defensively since they entered the league.

It's hard to believe that Jaylen will suddenly become a defensive specialist after 3 seasons.

Jaylen Brown's strength is supposed to be scoring.
Just like his 2nd year in the league.

There's just no way Jaylen will be as good or come close to a defensive player like Marcus Smart.

I don't think this is true. And I don't think it's how the Celtics organization sees it.

Obviously everyone wants him to improve offensively and he has a relatively high ceiling on that end but I get the sense that he's starting because of his defensive versatility. He's quick enough to guard PG's but he's strong enough to have played PF in Team USA games (and should be able to do the same in today's NBA). That's his most important skill to this team.

If I had to place a bet on the more likely thing to happen between Jaylen making an All Defensive team or him ever being in the top 20 in scoring, I'd bet he makes an All Defensive team.
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Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2019, 12:48:29 AM »

Offline Muzzy66

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I chose the 14.5 PPG option - although I don't think that fairly reflects his ability. 

I chose this option because I think Kemba and Tatum are already pretty firmly locked in as the #1 and #2 options on this team.  Depending on how strong Hayward comes back, Jaylen could be as far as the #4 scoring option on the team, and i think the sheer lack of touches is going to make it hard for him to score much more than 14 - 15 PPG. 

This is not only due to scoring ability, but also scoring style.  Kemba and Tatum are both very skilled shot creators.  They are guys who you can give the ball and just get out of the way, and they can make something out of nothing.  For that reason, it makes a lot of logical sense to run most of the office through those two guys. 

Brown is a capable scorer, but he is not really a shot creator.  He's more the type of guy who gets his points through transition and off assists.

Hayward is somewhat in between.  He's a skilled finisher in transition and is a good catch and shoot guy, but he CAN create offense when needed.

I think for those reasons the pecking order will be Kemba, Tatum, Hayward, Brown - and I think Brown's outright PPG numbers will suffer as a result of that.   Hopefully if that is the case and he does become less involved in the offense, then I'm hoping that will allow him to be more efficient on the offensive end while also allowing him the energy to bring a more consistent effort on the defensive end. 

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2019, 12:59:33 AM »

Offline Muzzy66

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Guys like Tony Allen and Marcus Smart were all good defensively since they entered the league.

It's hard to believe that Jaylen will suddenly become a defensive specialist after 3 seasons.

Jaylen Brown's strength is supposed to be scoring.
Just like his 2nd year in the league.

There's just no way Jaylen will be as good or come close to a defensive player like Marcus Smart.

I don't think this is true. And I don't think it's how the Celtics organization sees it.

Obviously everyone wants him to improve offensively and he has a relatively high ceiling on that end but I get the sense that he's starting because of his defensive versatility. He's quick enough to guard PG's but he's strong enough to have played PF in Team USA games (and should be able to do the same in today's NBA). That's his most important skill to this team.

If I had to place a bet on the more likely thing to happen between Jaylen making an All Defensive team or him ever being in the top 20 in scoring, I'd bet he makes an All Defensive team.

Honestly, I also think this is pretty unlikely. 

As stated above guys like Smart, Tony Allen and Avery Bradley were elite defensive players from day one.  That defense was basically the ONLY thing that got those guys on the court early on.

Brown's defense has been really very inconsistent during his time in the league so far.  There have been patches where his defense has looked exceptional and he's looked like a future defensive stud.  Then there have been long stretches where he's looked like a significant defensive liability. 

I don't think Brown will ever really be an elite defender or an elite scorer to be honest.  I just don't think his upside is that high on either end of the floor.  I struggle to see him averaging more than 18-19 PPG on a good team because i just don't think he's skilled enough or versatile enough offensively.  I don't think h'll ever make an all defensive team either.  I think of him as a bit of a Rudy Gay / Jeff Green / Nic Batum / Trevor Ariza type of guy.  A good quality starter who can score in multiple ways and defend multiple positions, but not elite enough to carry your offense or anchor your defense.

And that's not a bad piece to have by any means.   

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2019, 01:08:43 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I think it depends on injuries but on this team he probably is at 16 and 5.
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Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2019, 12:37:18 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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If Jaylen gets at least 3 more shots per game, and plays at the scoring efficiencies that he did from late November-onward (i.e., after his hand healed), then he should average at least 17 points per game and probably closer to 20.

That's really all it takes to get to the upper end of the poll options.

A lot comes down to simple opportunity and usage.
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Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2019, 12:44:06 PM »

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I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2019, 01:20:15 PM »

Online keevsnick

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I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.

Dont get we wrong, I think he could be that good. Its just that I dont think with Kemba, Tatum and maybe Hayward he will get the shots he needs to reach 20 ppg. But I hope I'm wrong. 

Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2019, 02:02:39 PM »

Online Moranis

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I think Jaylen is going to surprise a bunch of his detractors here on CelticsStrong. I could easily see him grabbing control as a #2 scorer while putting up All-Defense quality defense.  19-20 PPG, 5.5-6 rebounds 2.5-3 assists with a TS% around 59-60% is what I think he shows in this, his breakout year.
I just don't see how he can score that much unless Walker, Tatum, Hayward, and Kanter miss significant time.  There just aren't enough shots to go around
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Re: Poll: Predict Jaylen's stats this year
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2019, 02:16:39 PM »

Online PhoSita

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Around 15 and 5 seems about right to me.

My big questions are -- assist to turnover ratio?  Free throw rate & percentage?  Steal rate?

Jaylen can score in the open court and he's got some decent power moves in the halfcourt.  He'll never be a super efficient scorer but he's solid and he can hit a spot up three.

What can he add elsewhere?  Can he get to the line?  Can he fix his free throw shooting?  Can he improve his court vision and passing?  Can he force turnovers and be more than just a solid piece in a switching perimeter defense?
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