Author Topic: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum  (Read 2443 times)

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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #30 on: August 14, 2019, 04:08:22 PM »

Offline Silky

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Watching Tatum on the USA team, I think some here are underselling his ability to play the power forward position against decently sized guys. Will be interesting to watch him cover Al Horford opening night.

havent seen him play much PF against team usa in those practices at all. Looks like he is almost always a SF, lots of time with Kuzma as the PF.

I just cannot see Tatum going up against the likes of:
Siakam
Morris
Randle
Aminu
Collins
Griffin
Ibaka
Markannen
Young
Harris
Favors
Milsap
Gordon
Love
Aldridge
Green
JJJ
Sabonis
Kristaps
Bagley 3
Zion
Giannis

The PF spot is strong again in the nba, and I mean Physically strong, I dont see Tatum muscling any of those guys. And that renders him a liability on defense, and if he gives everything he has, his offense will suffer for it. (wearing out legs, etc)

First of all, historical Brown plays the big forwards on defense.

Second, i look at that list very differently than you do. That list does not scare me at all. The PF position is not strong. Plus, those power fowards have to match up with Tatum on the other end too. Few can do that for a full game.

easier to defend someone if you bruise them offensively, and alot of those guys do.

I just think that Tatum is a pure SF, I just dont see him being a full time PF.

I wouldnt want the Truth playing PF out there either if he was in his prime and on the team right now. And he is way better at being a PF than Tatum.

Tatum lacks low post moves, low post defense, rebounding fundamentals and finishing through contact. IMO all the traits you want a power forward to have.

At SF, Tatum has the chance to be a top 5 player in the league, at PF I see a Marvin Williams.
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #31 on: August 14, 2019, 04:50:25 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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If Walker plays 32 min at PG, that means Smart plays 16 at PG (I am simplifying this just to illustrate).  Add that to the 96 minutes for SG and SF and that is 112 minutes split between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum or about 28 min each.  Now if you say Tatum plays 8 minutes in some form of small ball line up at PF, that means 30 min each. 

If Tatum or one of the wings plays more at PF, some one else is going to need to start seeing minutes at PG, SG, or SF.  That someone is than Edwards, or Wannamaker, or Langford.  Is that better then more minutes for Ojeleye or Theis?  Maybe, who knows as there are a lot of question marks with all of these fringe players.  Hopefully one of the bigs emerges and plays better than expected and makes this easy.
I posted this in another thread recently, but this is basically how I see the minutes shaking out.

PG - Walker 34, Smart 10, Wanamaker/Edwards 4
SG - Brown 15, Smart 20, Langford 13
SF - Hayward 31, Brown 17
PF - Tatum 32, Semi 10, G. Williams 6
C - Kanter 30, Theis 10, R. Williams 8

Maybe Semi or Theis eats up some of those Langford minutes moving Tatum over to SF a bit, but I really can't see how Tatum isn't spending a lot of time at the 4 this year.

Yeah, it could go that way but I think your overall minutes for the main guys is high (Walker 34, Brown 32, Hayward 31, Tatum 32, Smart 30) are all higher than last season by 1-6 minutes .  Setting that aside, you have Edwards, Wanamaker, and Langford playing 17 min a game which I think would really need to be more like 20 minutes a game or more in order to allow Tatum to play the so called PF position.

I would rather see more of Ojeleye and Theis than more of Langford and Wanamaker.  I admit, this is the lesser of two evils but yeah, this is going to be a tough roster.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #32 on: August 14, 2019, 05:07:59 PM »

Offline Moranis

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If Walker plays 32 min at PG, that means Smart plays 16 at PG (I am simplifying this just to illustrate).  Add that to the 96 minutes for SG and SF and that is 112 minutes split between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum or about 28 min each.  Now if you say Tatum plays 8 minutes in some form of small ball line up at PF, that means 30 min each. 

If Tatum or one of the wings plays more at PF, some one else is going to need to start seeing minutes at PG, SG, or SF.  That someone is than Edwards, or Wannamaker, or Langford.  Is that better then more minutes for Ojeleye or Theis?  Maybe, who knows as there are a lot of question marks with all of these fringe players.  Hopefully one of the bigs emerges and plays better than expected and makes this easy.
I posted this in another thread recently, but this is basically how I see the minutes shaking out.

PG - Walker 34, Smart 10, Wanamaker/Edwards 4
SG - Brown 15, Smart 20, Langford 13
SF - Hayward 31, Brown 17
PF - Tatum 32, Semi 10, G. Williams 6
C - Kanter 30, Theis 10, R. Williams 8

Maybe Semi or Theis eats up some of those Langford minutes moving Tatum over to SF a bit, but I really can't see how Tatum isn't spending a lot of time at the 4 this year.

Yeah, it could go that way but I think your overall minutes for the main guys is high (Walker 34, Brown 32, Hayward 31, Tatum 32, Smart 30) are all higher than last season by 1-6 minutes .  Setting that aside, you have Edwards, Wanamaker, and Langford playing 17 min a game which I think would really need to be more like 20 minutes a game or more in order to allow Tatum to play the so called PF position.

I would rather see more of Ojeleye and Theis than more of Langford and Wanamaker.  I admit, this is the lesser of two evils but yeah, this is going to be a tough roster.
Kemba played 34.9 mpg last year.  In fact, other than his rookie season he has been above 34 mpg every single season.  So me having him play 34 would be the 2nd lowest of his career.  Hayward's last 4 seasons in Utah he was between 34.4 and 36.4 mpg, putting him at 31 seems quite reasonable given last year he was coming back from a devastating injury.  He should start creeping back up towards his Utah minutes (and numbers in general).  Tatum was at 30.5 as a rookie and 31.1 last year.  A modest increase again to 32 seems like a normal trajectory (and frankly I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him up near 34 or 35 which is pretty standard for a starter, especially a good starter).  Smart has been between 27 and 30.4 mpg all 5 of his seasons.  Pegging him at 30 doesn't seem out of range.  Brown jumping up from 25.9 to 32 seems high on its face, but Brown also played 30.7 mpg the season before that.  The reality is, there just weren't that many minutes floating around last year with Morris, Rozier, and Baynes all on the team and not being replaced by anyone other than rookies.  That simply means there are a lot more minutes available, and I think they go to the better players (who are vets) as opposed to the rookies and bench filler type players. 

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #33 on: August 14, 2019, 06:24:20 PM »

Offline footey

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Watching Tatum on the USA team, I think some here are underselling his ability to play the power forward position against decently sized guys. Will be interesting to watch him cover Al Horford opening night.

havent seen him play much PF against team usa in those practices at all. Looks like he is almost always a SF, lots of time with Kuzma as the PF.

I just cannot see Tatum going up against the likes of:
Siakam
Morris
Randle
Aminu
Collins
Griffin
Ibaka
Markannen
Young
Harris
Favors
Milsap
Gordon
Love
Aldridge
Green
JJJ
Sabonis
Kristaps
Bagley 3
Zion
Giannis

The PF spot is strong again in the nba, and I mean Physically strong, I dont see Tatum muscling any of those guys. And that renders him a liability on defense, and if he gives everything he has, his offense will suffer for it. (wearing out legs, etc)

Tatum has the size and athleticism to cover most of those players you listed.  His shoulders are broader, his legs stronger. He is filling out. It was abundantly clear to me watching him play last Friday. He did cover some power forwards including Bagley on switches and held his position quite well.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #34 on: August 15, 2019, 09:31:51 PM »

Online Hoopvortex

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This thread is to discuss why I'm pretty confident that the starting lineup will be Kemba + Brown + Hayward + Tatum + Kanter.

Kudos and a TP for the work you did on this post.

I think that you might well be right, and on the whole I find your argument valid. I think that your argument about the two playmakers is solid, though I don't see why you couldn't achieve the same thing by substituting Smart for Hayward in the starting lineup.

I prefer that solution, since I'm skeptical about Kemba's defense at the point of attack and Kanter's defense in the paint. I think that you need the middle three to be quick and aggressive.

The vast majority of the time there will be at least a couple of starters on the floor with the bench.   So that's who will handle the scoring for the bench.

That's logical. I would only add that you also need shot-creation off the bench, and if you're bringing in Wanamaker or Edwards for Walker, bringing in Hayward would be especially needed.

From time to time on this forum, I see Marcus Smart being allotted PG minutes and suggested as the point guard. So far in his career, he has certainly run the offense frequently - but he has virtually always been on the court with a point guard/ballhandler. We'll see plenty of him handling the ball with Kemba Walker playing off the ball this season, taking some of the load off of Walker and using his ability to get a switch for a mismatch, and a path to the rim or an open shot.


I firmly believe that Brad is going to always want to have 2 playmakers on the floor.  And further, he really prefers that to be in the form of a 'point guard' and a 'point forward'.
   

Irving-Smart-Tatum-Morris-Baynes or Rozier-Smart-Tatum-Morris-Baynes were not infrequently used lineups. In that case would you call Smart the "point forward"?

Your main point is a good one, however.

So again, that really just leaves Hayward as the logical replacement for Al Horford's role in the offense.

I won't quibble too much, as long as you only mean that Hayward replaces Horford as a secondary playmaker. No doubt, the offense will look very different this season; I'm looking forward to how this all sorts out.

So Brad is going to play Kemba and Hayward to start in the two playmaker roles.   Beyond those guys, Smart is really our only other experienced playmaker.   So it makes a lot of sense to bring him off the bench.

By the same logic, you could start him and bring Hayward off the bench.

He is big enough to act as a 'playmaking wing' opposite Kemba as 'point guard' as well as able to act as a 'point guard' opposite Hayward's 'point forward'.   I.E., I expect Brad to try to initially always have these two-man pairings on the floor during critical minutes:

Kemba+Hayward
Kemba+Smart
Smart+Hayward


Again, I doubt that you'll see Smart+Hayward without also having a point guard on the floor.

There's a big difference. IT, Irving, and Rozier could all get anywhere they wanted to on the court off the dribble; and now Boston has Walker, who can do that, too. Smart simply doesn't have that level of ability off the dribble.
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Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #35 on: August 16, 2019, 01:32:26 AM »

Online Hoopvortex

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If Walker plays 32 min at PG, that means Smart plays 16 at PG (I am simplifying this just to illustrate).  Add that to the 96 minutes for SG and SF and that is 112 minutes split between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum or about 28 min each.  Now if you say Tatum plays 8 minutes in some form of small ball line up at PF, that means 30 min each. 

If Tatum or one of the wings plays more at PF, some one else is going to need to start seeing minutes at PG, SG, or SF.  That someone is than Edwards, or Wannamaker, or Langford.  Is that better then more minutes for Ojeleye or Theis?  Maybe, who knows as there are a lot of question marks with all of these fringe players.  Hopefully one of the bigs emerges and plays better than expected and makes this easy.
I posted this in another thread recently, but this is basically how I see the minutes shaking out.

PG - Walker 34, Smart 10, Wanamaker/Edwards 4
SG - Brown 15, Smart 20, Langford 13
SF - Hayward 31, Brown 17
PF - Tatum 32, Semi 10, G. Williams 6
C - Kanter 30, Theis 10, R. Williams 8

Maybe Semi or Theis eats up some of those Langford minutes moving Tatum over to SF a bit, but I really can't see how Tatum isn't spending a lot of time at the 4 this year.

Some good thinking in your minutes chart.

A few things here:

1) Smart does not play “point guard” - at least if you look at his career so far. It’s true that he logs plenty of minutes as the primary ballhandler, but he has virtually always played with a smaller player on the court with him. He plays wing minutes.  Posters around here have really not yet grappled with the fact that Walker’s primary backups are a rookie, and last season’s third-string point guard.

2) I don’t know why we need to continue to use the old-fashioned designations of PG/SG/SF/PF/C - the league, including the Boston coaching staff, has moved on.

3) Langford getting rotation minutes (as for example, you’ve given him here) is not plausible. Of course, you haven’t specified what part of the season you’re predicting for - as the year goes on, all sorts of things can happen; but Langford is effectively the fifth wing; and given his physical issues and the lack of an obvious opportunity for him, anything more than spot minutes and a ton of DNP-CD’s is most unlikely.

4) Interesting that you’ve given only “PF” minutes to Tatum; he will certainly get some wing minutes as well as swing (or whatever you prefer to call it); with the departure of Morris, that role of a heavier wing would seem to have Semi first in line, so you might often find Tatum as a wing when there is a big/swing lineup, exactly as you suggest. Tatum’s length gives him some advantages on offense as well as defense when he’s a wing, so that’s a very good option.

5) On the other hand, the coaching staff have only played Theis as a big - in fact he’s usually been the lone big in big/swing lineups. So if we're going to continue using the old 1-5 designations, in other words - he's a 5, a center.

6) Will Walker play as many as 34 minutes? That’s on the high side for Brad Stevens’ teams - no player in the last five seasons has played that much (though IT came close). Load management has been the norm.  But there’s something else at play this time around: Walker is being backed up by Wanamaker and Edwards. Great for them - they’ve got a golden opportunity, and Carsen, I believe, is poised to seize it.  But it probably also means longer minutes for Kemba.

7) You’ve put Timelord in for 8 minutes, and while I wouldn’t bet my house on 16 minutes, it’s my opinion that that’s about where he’ll wind up for the year. Again, you haven’t specified if this is for the whole season, or opening night, or the first game of the playoffs, or the median, or the mode, or whatever.

8. Kanter has his deficiencies, though on the other hand good game planning should be able to make use of his remarkable gifts; in particular he’s not a great rim protector, and that means that RW3 has a golden opportunity, especially because he’s potentially a good fit as a big in two-big lineups. His ability to guard out on the floor is precious, and he has the rare ability to be just as good a shot-blocker on his man as off the ball. I’ve just been reviewing his passing in summer league - I think he’s got some real potential to get the ball in his hands and make decisions, or at least to find spot-ups and cutters when he’s the roll man.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 01:37:29 AM by Hoopvortex »
∑ Team executive on Brownís future: ďAll-Star. Multiple times. Just like Jayson. Everyone loves Kawhi and PG as a wing duo. We think we have our own version growing right here in Boston. Itís gonna take a couple more years, but those guys are stars. And neither has an ego. They just want to play and win.Ē

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #36 on: August 16, 2019, 02:06:16 AM »

Offline Somebody

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My expected rotation chart next season:
PG: Kemba (30) Smart (12) Edwards (6)
SG: Brown (28) Smart (16) Edwards (4)
SF: Hayward (22) Tatum (22) Brown (4)
PF: Tatum (10) Hayward (10) Semi (18) G Williams (10)
C: Kanter (28) Theis (12) Poirier/R Williams (8 )
I see Brad staggering our three main wings a lot and only playing them together to start and close games. Don't see Timelord getting many, if any game time due to our slew of centers.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #37 on: August 16, 2019, 02:22:43 AM »

Offline RockinRyA

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If Walker plays 32 min at PG, that means Smart plays 16 at PG (I am simplifying this just to illustrate).  Add that to the 96 minutes for SG and SF and that is 112 minutes split between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum or about 28 min each.  Now if you say Tatum plays 8 minutes in some form of small ball line up at PF, that means 30 min each. 

If Tatum or one of the wings plays more at PF, some one else is going to need to start seeing minutes at PG, SG, or SF.  That someone is than Edwards, or Wannamaker, or Langford.  Is that better then more minutes for Ojeleye or Theis?  Maybe, who knows as there are a lot of question marks with all of these fringe players.  Hopefully one of the bigs emerges and plays better than expected and makes this easy.
I posted this in another thread recently, but this is basically how I see the minutes shaking out.

PG - Walker 34, Smart 10, Wanamaker/Edwards 4
SG - Brown 15, Smart 20, Langford 13
SF - Hayward 31, Brown 17
PF - Tatum 32, Semi 10, G. Williams 6
C - Kanter 30, Theis 10, R. Williams 8

Maybe Semi or Theis eats up some of those Langford minutes moving Tatum over to SF a bit, but I really can't see how Tatum isn't spending a lot of time at the 4 this year.

Some good thinking in your minutes chart.

A few things here:

1) Smart does not play ďpoint guardĒ - at least if you look at his career so far. Itís true that he logs plenty of minutes as the primary ballhandler, but he has virtually always played with a smaller player on the court with him. He plays wing minutes.  Posters around here have really not yet grappled with the fact that Walkerís primary backups are a rookie, and last seasonís third-string point guard.

2) I donít know why we need to continue to use the old-fashioned designations of PG/SG/SF/PF/C - the league, including the Boston coaching staff, has moved on.

3) Langford getting rotation minutes (as for example, youíve given him here) is not plausible. Of course, you havenít specified what part of the season youíre predicting for - as the year goes on, all sorts of things can happen; but Langford is effectively the fifth wing; and given his physical issues and the lack of an obvious opportunity for him, anything more than spot minutes and a ton of DNP-CDís is most unlikely.

4) Interesting that youíve given only ďPFĒ minutes to Tatum; he will certainly get some wing minutes as well as swing (or whatever you prefer to call it); with the departure of Morris, that role of a heavier wing would seem to have Semi first in line, so you might often find Tatum as a wing when there is a big/swing lineup, exactly as you suggest. Tatumís length gives him some advantages on offense as well as defense when heís a wing, so thatís a very good option.

5) On the other hand, the coaching staff have only played Theis as a big - in fact heís usually been the lone big in big/swing lineups. So if we're going to continue using the old 1-5 designations, in other words - he's a 5, a center.

6) Will Walker play as many as 34 minutes? Thatís on the high side for Brad Stevensí teams - no player in the last five seasons has played that much (though IT came close). Load management has been the norm.  But thereís something else at play this time around: Walker is being backed up by Wanamaker and Edwards. Great for them - theyíve got a golden opportunity, and Carsen, I believe, is poised to seize it.  But it probably also means longer minutes for Kemba.

7) Youíve put Timelord in for 8 minutes, and while I wouldnít bet my house on 16 minutes, itís my opinion that thatís about where heíll wind up for the year. Again, you havenít specified if this is for the whole season, or opening night, or the first game of the playoffs, or the median, or the mode, or whatever.

8. Kanter has his deficiencies, though on the other hand good game planning should be able to make use of his remarkable gifts; in particular heís not a great rim protector, and that means that RW3 has a golden opportunity, especially because heís potentially a good fit as a big in two-big lineups. His ability to guard out on the floor is precious, and he has the rare ability to be just as good a shot-blocker on his man as off the ball. Iíve just been reviewing his passing in summer league - I think heís got some real potential to get the ball in his hands and make decisions, or at least to find spot-ups and cutters when heís the roll man.

I dunno about that. Smart played a whole lot of minutes with AB while IT was sitting. And no, he was the PG not AB.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #38 on: August 16, 2019, 07:44:32 AM »

Offline Moranis

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If Walker plays 32 min at PG, that means Smart plays 16 at PG (I am simplifying this just to illustrate).  Add that to the 96 minutes for SG and SF and that is 112 minutes split between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum or about 28 min each.  Now if you say Tatum plays 8 minutes in some form of small ball line up at PF, that means 30 min each. 

If Tatum or one of the wings plays more at PF, some one else is going to need to start seeing minutes at PG, SG, or SF.  That someone is than Edwards, or Wannamaker, or Langford.  Is that better then more minutes for Ojeleye or Theis?  Maybe, who knows as there are a lot of question marks with all of these fringe players.  Hopefully one of the bigs emerges and plays better than expected and makes this easy.
I posted this in another thread recently, but this is basically how I see the minutes shaking out.

PG - Walker 34, Smart 10, Wanamaker/Edwards 4
SG - Brown 15, Smart 20, Langford 13
SF - Hayward 31, Brown 17
PF - Tatum 32, Semi 10, G. Williams 6
C - Kanter 30, Theis 10, R. Williams 8

Maybe Semi or Theis eats up some of those Langford minutes moving Tatum over to SF a bit, but I really can't see how Tatum isn't spending a lot of time at the 4 this year.

Some good thinking in your minutes chart.

A few things here:

1) Smart does not play ďpoint guardĒ - at least if you look at his career so far. Itís true that he logs plenty of minutes as the primary ballhandler, but he has virtually always played with a smaller player on the court with him. He plays wing minutes.  Posters around here have really not yet grappled with the fact that Walkerís primary backups are a rookie, and last seasonís third-string point guard.

2) I donít know why we need to continue to use the old-fashioned designations of PG/SG/SF/PF/C - the league, including the Boston coaching staff, has moved on.

3) Langford getting rotation minutes (as for example, youíve given him here) is not plausible. Of course, you havenít specified what part of the season youíre predicting for - as the year goes on, all sorts of things can happen; but Langford is effectively the fifth wing; and given his physical issues and the lack of an obvious opportunity for him, anything more than spot minutes and a ton of DNP-CDís is most unlikely.

4) Interesting that youíve given only ďPFĒ minutes to Tatum; he will certainly get some wing minutes as well as swing (or whatever you prefer to call it); with the departure of Morris, that role of a heavier wing would seem to have Semi first in line, so you might often find Tatum as a wing when there is a big/swing lineup, exactly as you suggest. Tatumís length gives him some advantages on offense as well as defense when heís a wing, so thatís a very good option.

5) On the other hand, the coaching staff have only played Theis as a big - in fact heís usually been the lone big in big/swing lineups. So if we're going to continue using the old 1-5 designations, in other words - he's a 5, a center.

6) Will Walker play as many as 34 minutes? Thatís on the high side for Brad Stevensí teams - no player in the last five seasons has played that much (though IT came close). Load management has been the norm.  But thereís something else at play this time around: Walker is being backed up by Wanamaker and Edwards. Great for them - theyíve got a golden opportunity, and Carsen, I believe, is poised to seize it.  But it probably also means longer minutes for Kemba.

7) Youíve put Timelord in for 8 minutes, and while I wouldnít bet my house on 16 minutes, itís my opinion that thatís about where heíll wind up for the year. Again, you havenít specified if this is for the whole season, or opening night, or the first game of the playoffs, or the median, or the mode, or whatever.

8. Kanter has his deficiencies, though on the other hand good game planning should be able to make use of his remarkable gifts; in particular heís not a great rim protector, and that means that RW3 has a golden opportunity, especially because heís potentially a good fit as a big in two-big lineups. His ability to guard out on the floor is precious, and he has the rare ability to be just as good a shot-blocker on his man as off the ball. Iíve just been reviewing his passing in summer league - I think heís got some real potential to get the ball in his hands and make decisions, or at least to find spot-ups and cutters when heís the roll man.

I dunno about that. Smart played a whole lot of minutes with AB while IT was sitting. And no, he was the PG not AB.
Exactly, when the team has had a credible back-up PG, Smart plays more as the SG, but when the team has been lacking credible ball handlers, Smart has been the PG.  He also, often would guard the opposing PG in lineups with IT and Irving, when the opposing PG was the better of the 2 guards in the game (so they could hide IT and Irving's crappy defense more). 

Smart will be the primary back-up PG quite simply because there is no one else worth playing there for anything more than spot minutes here and there.  And because I think Smart will be the primary back-up PG that opens up minutes for Langford that he wouldn't otherwise have because someone needs to play SG next to Smart (or Walker when Brown/Smart are on the bench).  Plus, the simple truth is lottery picks almost always get consistent playing time.  There is a reason they are a lottery pick.  I'd be very surprised if Langford doesn't get consistent minutes this year (not a ton of them, but consistently plays with a set role every game). 

And I still keep coming back to the, if Tatum isn't the PF (or 2nd big or whatever you want to call that position) then who the heck is.  There is literally no one else that the team should feel good about playing in that spot for long periods of Tatum.  It is basically Tatum or a bunch of players that have no real business playing more than a few minutes at a time. 

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #39 on: August 16, 2019, 08:20:31 AM »

Offline MichiganAdam

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I agree it is tatum or hayward for at least 30 minutes at the swing/PF spot by default unless there is a trade.  It is simply a combination of play the talent, and until GW proves he can handle it, that means alot of JT, GH, and AB with smart the BU at both guard spots.  There will be ALOT of overlap I think, with minimal time at least 2 starters are not on the floor for offense.  I also think they will run alot more this year.  THe "switch" from morris to tatum as that second big will almost force it to happen.  I think Kanter/tatum will rebound the ball WAY BETTER than Horford/morris did.  I think we run so much we force the other team to play smaller to match up.  Few teams will enforce their will the other way.  Philly may be one of them...

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #40 on: August 16, 2019, 10:32:40 AM »

Offline Somebody

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Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #41 on: August 16, 2019, 10:35:20 AM »

Online Hoopvortex

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If Walker plays 32 min at PG, that means Smart plays 16 at PG (I am simplifying this just to illustrate).  Add that to the 96 minutes for SG and SF and that is 112 minutes split between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum or about 28 min each.  Now if you say Tatum plays 8 minutes in some form of small ball line up at PF, that means 30 min each. 

If Tatum or one of the wings plays more at PF, some one else is going to need to start seeing minutes at PG, SG, or SF.  That someone is than Edwards, or Wannamaker, or Langford.  Is that better then more minutes for Ojeleye or Theis?  Maybe, who knows as there are a lot of question marks with all of these fringe players.  Hopefully one of the bigs emerges and plays better than expected and makes this easy.
I posted this in another thread recently, but this is basically how I see the minutes shaking out.

PG - Walker 34, Smart 10, Wanamaker/Edwards 4
SG - Brown 15, Smart 20, Langford 13
SF - Hayward 31, Brown 17
PF - Tatum 32, Semi 10, G. Williams 6
C - Kanter 30, Theis 10, R. Williams 8

Maybe Semi or Theis eats up some of those Langford minutes moving Tatum over to SF a bit, but I really can't see how Tatum isn't spending a lot of time at the 4 this year.

Some good thinking in your minutes chart.

A few things here:

1) Smart does not play ďpoint guardĒ - at least if you look at his career so far. Itís true that he logs plenty of minutes as the primary ballhandler, but he has virtually always played with a smaller player on the court with him. He plays wing minutes.  Posters around here have really not yet grappled with the fact that Walkerís primary backups are a rookie, and last seasonís third-string point guard.

2) I donít know why we need to continue to use the old-fashioned designations of PG/SG/SF/PF/C - the league, including the Boston coaching staff, has moved on.

3) Langford getting rotation minutes (as for example, youíve given him here) is not plausible. Of course, you havenít specified what part of the season youíre predicting for - as the year goes on, all sorts of things can happen; but Langford is effectively the fifth wing; and given his physical issues and the lack of an obvious opportunity for him, anything more than spot minutes and a ton of DNP-CDís is most unlikely.

4) Interesting that youíve given only ďPFĒ minutes to Tatum; he will certainly get some wing minutes as well as swing (or whatever you prefer to call it); with the departure of Morris, that role of a heavier wing would seem to have Semi first in line, so you might often find Tatum as a wing when there is a big/swing lineup, exactly as you suggest. Tatumís length gives him some advantages on offense as well as defense when heís a wing, so thatís a very good option.

5) On the other hand, the coaching staff have only played Theis as a big - in fact heís usually been the lone big in big/swing lineups. So if we're going to continue using the old 1-5 designations, in other words - he's a 5, a center.

6) Will Walker play as many as 34 minutes? Thatís on the high side for Brad Stevensí teams - no player in the last five seasons has played that much (though IT came close). Load management has been the norm.  But thereís something else at play this time around: Walker is being backed up by Wanamaker and Edwards. Great for them - theyíve got a golden opportunity, and Carsen, I believe, is poised to seize it.  But it probably also means longer minutes for Kemba.

7) Youíve put Timelord in for 8 minutes, and while I wouldnít bet my house on 16 minutes, itís my opinion that thatís about where heíll wind up for the year. Again, you havenít specified if this is for the whole season, or opening night, or the first game of the playoffs, or the median, or the mode, or whatever.

8. Kanter has his deficiencies, though on the other hand good game planning should be able to make use of his remarkable gifts; in particular heís not a great rim protector, and that means that RW3 has a golden opportunity, especially because heís potentially a good fit as a big in two-big lineups. His ability to guard out on the floor is precious, and he has the rare ability to be just as good a shot-blocker on his man as off the ball. Iíve just been reviewing his passing in summer league - I think heís got some real potential to get the ball in his hands and make decisions, or at least to find spot-ups and cutters when heís the roll man.

I dunno about that. Smart played a whole lot of minutes with AB while IT was sitting. And no, he was the PG not AB.

In 16-17, there was a Smart-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Horford lineup that played 95.2 minutes on the season, and a similar Smart-Bradley-Crowder-Olynyk-Horford lineup that played 38 minutes on the season.

So your memory is not faulty, though your remembering that as "a whole lot of minutes" is probably stretching the point. Smart's role in those situations was a lot like his role in IT/Smart, Irving/Smart, and Rozier/Smart lineups, with Bradley playing the IT/Irving/Rozier role, in other words off the ball.

So in this sense you could say that Smart was often the point guard, as in, "handling the ball and initiating at the point of attack".

You're right that Bradley was definitely not the point guard in that sense.

But in those lineups he guarded the opponent's point guard, because with his size guarding a shooting guard/wing was a losing proposition. He was the proverbial "2 in a 1's Body", one of those dreaded "tweeners". This is the exception that proves the rule.

So you then have to ask what "point guard" even means at this point. Marcus had an assist% of 19.1 last year, which was 56th in the league (Kyrie, for comparison, was 35.0% and 8th, while Kemba was 29.4% and 21st). 

Looking on the opposite side of the issue, you wouldn't call anyone who initiates the offense a "point guard", now would you? Gordon Hayward does not suddenly, temporarily become a point guard if he's the ballhandler in a pick and roll.

In 2017/18 the lineups with Smart and without either Irving or Rozier were substantially less played; the most was Smart-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Baynes at 42.3 minutes on the season.

In 2018/19 the 20 most-used lineups with Smart all include Irving or Rozier. It's possible to look up less-used lineups, but why bother?  The trend is unmistakeable.

I love him and his game, by the way. But you've really got to massage the reality to call him a point guard - and certainly it is less realistic if you are allotting minutes to PG/SG/SF/PF/C, as though those were pre-existing slots/roles that the coaching staff then needed to fill. The cart is then way out in front of the horse.

This is leaving aside the reality that the coaching staff don't use those designations and haven't for several years. But let's not go down that rabbit hole today.
∑ Team executive on Brownís future: ďAll-Star. Multiple times. Just like Jayson. Everyone loves Kawhi and PG as a wing duo. We think we have our own version growing right here in Boston. Itís gonna take a couple more years, but those guys are stars. And neither has an ego. They just want to play and win.Ē

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #42 on: August 16, 2019, 10:36:54 AM »

Online Hoopvortex

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Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.

I agree. It would be a surprise if he got any more than spot minutes.
∑ Team executive on Brownís future: ďAll-Star. Multiple times. Just like Jayson. Everyone loves Kawhi and PG as a wing duo. We think we have our own version growing right here in Boston. Itís gonna take a couple more years, but those guys are stars. And neither has an ego. They just want to play and win.Ē

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #43 on: August 16, 2019, 10:51:25 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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Langford was the last lottery pick in the draft lol, it's not like he's a top pick. The only set role he'll play is a cheerleader on the bench barring garbage time and injuries.
Good point, and some said he was a stretch at #14.  We didn't put Olynyk or Rozier (both also chosen in the teens) up on a pedestal.

Re: The 3-wing lineup: Hayward + Brown + Tatum
« Reply #44 on: August 16, 2019, 11:11:18 AM »

Offline MichiganAdam

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There is a big difference between a lottery pick playing on a ...lottery team, and a lottery pick playing on a "top 5-10" team.  The C's had a pick in the lottery, but they are not a lottery team.  They have the time to let their young guys learn before they are thrown in to swim or drown.  Lottery teams often don't have that luxury. 

 

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