Celtics win total set at 49.5 by Vegas

[Vermont Green]

As Pho and others have mentioned, the loss of Horford is huge. And to a lesser extent, so is the loss of Baynes. No amount of Timelord, Poirier or Tacko, even combined, is going to replace what Horford and Baynes meant defensively to this team.

As I said earlier, I think the replacement for Horford is Kanter  It is a downgrade (especially defensively as said above), but I think it is a direct replacement.  Poirier has replaced "to a lesser extent Baynes" (do we have a new nickname for him?).  Probably also a down grade but who really knows what Poirier will give us.  He may defend just fine relative to Baynes.  Repeating my earlier question, who replaces Morris? 

Horford is a better player than Morris but we have a reasonable replacement for him.  Relative to replacement, I think our biggest down grade is the hodgepodge that will replace Morris' minutes.  GWill would fill the roster spot in a sense but if he plays anything near the 28 min that Morris played, I will be stunned.

We are going to miss Morris but I am actually hopeful that Ojeleye can step up and give us maybe 18 or so of these minutes and be productive.  That may be asking a lot though.

[nickagneta]

I think people are perhaps a little pessimistic on the defense.  In 2015-2016, the Celtics had the third-best defense in the NBA with IT leading the team in minutes and a bigs rotation that included Sullinger, Zeller, and David Lee combining for over 3000 minutes.

The lack of elite talent upfront may get exposed in specific playoff matchups, but it is well within Stevens’ abilities to design a scheme that produces good results over 82 games, which is all that matters in an over/under discussion.

Sullinger amounted for almost 2000 of those 3000 minutes you listed. The first four in the big man rotation that year was actually Sullinger(81 GP, 1915 MP), Amir Johnson(79 GP, 1800 MP), Olynyk(69 GP, 1395 MP)and Jerebko(78 GP, 1176 MP). Zeller and Lee(especially Lee who was in only 30 games early in the season) were minor contributors that year.

I would argue that those four guys were all much better front court defenders, especially team defenders, than any of our current group of Timelord, Kanter, Poirier, Fall, Williams and either Tatum or Hayward guarding at the PF spot. Theis might be the only guy on this team that was as good or better a defender than Sully, Kelly, Jonas and Amir was for our frontcourt in 2015-16.

Here's the thing: going into that season, no one would have said those guys were good defenders. Sully was slow-footed. Kelly was foul prone. Jerebko struggled to play in Detroit because of his defense. Amir was a solid scheme defender, but it was widely noted that he was losing athleticism and effectiveness.

I think saltlover's point is valid.

The fact is that one of CBS best skills is getting 85% of Al Horford's last season production from scrubs. Admittedly, these bigs on-court production is normally married with team effectiveness in abnormal ways, but they are still effective bigs.

I disagree with this. The year before the 2015-16 season, Olynyk and Sully showed they had good team defender potential and were good to very good defensive rebounders. Jerebko came over from Detroit and showed to be a good defender of small ball PFs the last 30 games of 2014-15. And Amir, at 27 years old, was showing in Toronto he was still the the tough, defensive minded player he built his reputation on.

While people may not have thought they could be a good defensive grouping to start the season, those 4 guys did show they could be or were good defenders the year earlier.

We now have Kanter, who has been a very bad defender most of his career. We also have Poirier, Timelord, Grant Williams and Tacko that have shown nothing in the NBA that they could be good defenders this year. And then there are the two SFs, Tatum and Hayward, that will be playing a bunch of PF this year.

Yeah, maybe Stevens works his magic and gets a lot more from them than anyone has a right to expect. But I wouldn't count on it happening just because Stevens had a group 3 years ago that wasn't expected to be as good as they were. That group at least had some history of having the talent and potential to be good NBA team defenders. Our current group has never shown that, except for Theis.

I think it is fair to say that Amir Johnson was viewed as a better defender than anyone we have coming into the season (although our european center is definitely a complete unknown. I also remember that KO always seemed to have stats that indicated he was a better defender than you would guess based on his limited athletic ability and short arms. That being said, i think it is a stretch to say anyone ever thought Sullinger was a good a defender. A good rebounder sure, but not really sure of anything behind that besides being a nuisance with his big body.

In his 1st three years Sullinger had very good defensive ratings and very good defensive rebounding numbers. This to me points to him showing he could have the potential to be a good team defender even if his one on one defense wasn't good. My point is he showed infinitely more that he could be decent to good in a Stevens team defense than almost everyone currently.  Literally only Theis has shown he can do that on this current team.

[PhoSita]

I think we're leaving Theis out in this discussion -- he's shown that he's a pretty solid NBA defender.  Question is minutes and availability due to injuries.  He has a 104 defensive rating for his career so far (129 games, 1844 minutes).

Kanter is bad but should at least help on the boards.

Grant Williams is a rookie so expectations should be low but he has the skillset to be a solid team defender albeit one who gives up a lot of height in certain matchups.

Semi will probably get some backup minutes at the 3/4 and he's demonstrated that he has the tools to play solid defense.


Poirier who knows, most likely he'll do many of the same things that Kanter does but with less physical talent and in far fewer minutes, when he plays at all.


I don't expect Timelord or Tacko to get meaningful minutes at the NBA level this year.  They will play in Maine or in garbage time.




I would second the notion that the 15-16 team had more proven NBA defensive talent in their frontcourt heading into that year.  Amir Johnson was considered an underrated defensive role player at the 4/5.  Sully was a very good defensive rebounder with good hands and a wide base to defend post-ups.  Kelly has always been a better defender than his reputation among casual fans would suggest. 

[celticsclay]

I think we're leaving Theis out in this discussion -- he's shown that he's a pretty solid NBA defender.  Question is minutes and availability due to injuries.  He has a 104 defensive rating for his career so far (129 games, 1844 minutes).

Kanter is bad but should at least help on the boards.

Grant Williams is a rookie so expectations should be low but he has the skillset to be a solid team defender albeit one who gives up a lot of height in certain matchups.

Semi will probably get some backup minutes at the 3/4 and he's demonstrated that he has the tools to play solid defense.


Poirier who knows, most likely he'll do many of the same things that Kanter does but with less physical talent and in far fewer minutes, when he plays at all.


I don't expect Timelord or Tacko to get meaningful minutes at the NBA level this year.  They will play in Maine or in garbage time.




I would second the notion that the 15-16 team had more proven NBA defensive talent in their frontcourt heading into that year.  Amir Johnson was considered an underrated defensive role player at the 4/5.  Sully was a very good defensive rebounder with good hands and a wide base to defend post-ups.  Kelly has always been a better defender than his reputation among casual fans would suggest.

This brings me back to my question from a few posts ago, do you think the frontcourt players on our roster are what we roll into next seasons playoffs with? I would be surprised

[bellerephon]

I think we're leaving Theis out in this discussion -- he's shown that he's a pretty solid NBA defender.  Question is minutes and availability due to injuries.  He has a 104 defensive rating for his career so far (129 games, 1844 minutes).

Kanter is bad but should at least help on the boards.

Grant Williams is a rookie so expectations should be low but he has the skillset to be a solid team defender albeit one who gives up a lot of height in certain matchups.

Semi will probably get some backup minutes at the 3/4 and he's demonstrated that he has the tools to play solid defense.


Poirier who knows, most likely he'll do many of the same things that Kanter does but with less physical talent and in far fewer minutes, when he plays at all.


I don't expect Timelord or Tacko to get meaningful minutes at the NBA level this year.  They will play in Maine or in garbage time.




I would second the notion that the 15-16 team had more proven NBA defensive talent in their frontcourt heading into that year.  Amir Johnson was considered an underrated defensive role player at the 4/5.  Sully was a very good defensive rebounder with good hands and a wide base to defend post-ups.  Kelly has always been a better defender than his reputation among casual fans would suggest.

This brings me back to my question from a few posts ago, do you think the frontcourt players on our roster are what we roll into next seasons playoffs with? I would be surprised

It is certainly possible that Danny makes some move to change up the front court, it wouldn't surprise me. But trades are hard to pull off, especially for quality bigs that fit the way Brad wants the team to play, so I think there is a distinct possibility that this is the front court for the playoffs.

[mmmmm]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

[Vermont Green]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

I agree with this regarding Kanter.  Yeah, he is not exactly Horford but over the next 3-4 seasons, Kanter's production may be right there with him.  He will do different things but the rebounding boost will be nice to have.

[Moranis]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

I agree with this regarding Kanter.  Yeah, he is not exactly Horford but over the next 3-4 seasons, Kanter's production may be right there with him.  He will do different things but the rebounding boost will be nice to have.

3-4 seasons doesn't really matter to this discussion.  Only next year does and in that Kanter is a big downgrade on Horford.  It isn't just defensively either, he is offensively a downgrade as he is no where near the passer or floor spacer that Horford is.  Kanter is better scoring inside and because he is inside more is a more prolific rebounder, but you start putting Kanter out at the perimeter more often and he even loses that.

[JBcat]

I think we're leaving Theis out in this discussion -- he's shown that he's a pretty solid NBA defender.  Question is minutes and availability due to injuries.  He has a 104 defensive rating for his career so far (129 games, 1844 minutes).

Kanter is bad but should at least help on the boards.

Grant Williams is a rookie so expectations should be low but he has the skillset to be a solid team defender albeit one who gives up a lot of height in certain matchups.

Semi will probably get some backup minutes at the 3/4 and he's demonstrated that he has the tools to play solid defense.


Poirier who knows, most likely he'll do many of the same things that Kanter does but with less physical talent and in far fewer minutes, when he plays at all.


I don't expect Timelord or Tacko to get meaningful minutes at the NBA level this year.  They will play in Maine or in garbage time.




I would second the notion that the 15-16 team had more proven NBA defensive talent in their frontcourt heading into that year.  Amir Johnson was considered an underrated defensive role player at the 4/5.  Sully was a very good defensive rebounder with good hands and a wide base to defend post-ups.  Kelly has always been a better defender than his reputation among casual fans would suggest.

Regarding Poirier what makes you think he is anything like Kanter?  If anything I think he is being billed as an athletic defensive not much offense center who can run the floor.  Maybe the only thing they have in common is they both can rebound well.  He just might be what we need in our starting lineup, a low useage reliable defensive center who can rebound well.

[nickagneta]

I think we're leaving Theis out in this discussion -- he's shown that he's a pretty solid NBA defender.  Question is minutes and availability due to injuries.  He has a 104 defensive rating for his career so far (129 games, 1844 minutes).

Kanter is bad but should at least help on the boards.

Grant Williams is a rookie so expectations should be low but he has the skillset to be a solid team defender albeit one who gives up a lot of height in certain matchups.

Semi will probably get some backup minutes at the 3/4 and he's demonstrated that he has the tools to play solid defense.


Poirier who knows, most likely he'll do many of the same things that Kanter does but with less physical talent and in far fewer minutes, when he plays at all.


I don't expect Timelord or Tacko to get meaningful minutes at the NBA level this year.  They will play in Maine or in garbage time.




I would second the notion that the 15-16 team had more proven NBA defensive talent in their frontcourt heading into that year.  Amir Johnson was considered an underrated defensive role player at the 4/5.  Sully was a very good defensive rebounder with good hands and a wide base to defend post-ups.  Kelly has always been a better defender than his reputation among casual fans would suggest.

Regarding Poirier what makes you think he is anything like Kanter?  If anything I think he is being billed as an athletic defensive not much offense center who can run the floor.  Maybe the only thing they have in common is they both can rebound well.  He just might be what we need in our starting lineup, a low useage reliable defensive center who can rebound well.

In the YouTube highlight videos of Poirier I have seen, he looked a lot like Timelord at Texas A&M. At this point, I am expecting him to be about that good, which could mean we should expect very little from him next year, as we saw little from Timelord last year.

We will see.

[PhoSita]

Regarding Poirier what makes you think he is anything like Kanter? 

Athletic and tall, good size all around, good finisher, active on the offensive glass, poor lateral movement.  Might have a little juice as a jumpshooter.  Not a passer.  Will compete defensively but doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of smaller guys, especially in the P&R.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Regarding Poirier what makes you think he is anything like Kanter? 

Athletic and tall, good size all around, good finisher, active on the offensive glass, poor lateral movement.  Might have a little juice as a jumpshooter.  Not a passer.  Will compete defensively but doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of smaller guys, especially in the P&R.

I don't think he has post moves or finishing technique like Kanter. He also doesn't have much of a jumpshot. His reported 9'6'' standing reach also makes him a bit more of a threat inside defensively. I guess I see two pretty different players.

[PhoSita]

This brings me back to my question from a few posts ago, do you think the frontcourt players on our roster are what we roll into next seasons playoffs with? I would be surprised

I'm not sure.  I don't think Danny is giving up any significant assets to add a center.  I don't think there's any chance that the Celts trade for Steven Adams, for example. 


Honestly I think the strategy the Celts are using to build the frontcourt rotation is a good one -- find cheap guys late in the 1st round, via free agency bargains, or going after unproven guys from overseas.


If you can cobble together 50ish minutes of solid play at the PF and center position out of guys who collectively take up less than a quarter of your cap, why not do that? 


I would only use significant cap space or resources on a center if the guy I'm getting is a major impact two way player.  If not an All-Star then a guy with a crucial skillset like Horford.


If you just want a rebounder / finisher / rim protector, you can find guys who do that for well under $10 million per year.

[PhoSita]

Regarding Poirier what makes you think he is anything like Kanter? 

Athletic and tall, good size all around, good finisher, active on the offensive glass, poor lateral movement.  Might have a little juice as a jumpshooter.  Not a passer.  Will compete defensively but doesn't have the quickness to stay in front of smaller guys, especially in the P&R.

I don't think he has post moves or finishing technique like Kanter. He also doesn't have much of a jumpshot. His reported 9'6'' standing reach also makes him a bit more of a threat inside defensively. I guess I see two pretty different players.

I agree about Poirier not seeming to have any post game, which is unlike Kanter.

I'm mostly talking about defensively.  From what (admittedly little) I've seen and read about Poirier, we should expect a guy who is quick running in a straight line from one end of the court to another, who is active in the minutes he plays, but who is not much of a defender.  His offensive game looks like it's mostly running to the rim and finishing lobs or open looks inside of 3-5 feet.

[mmmmm]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

I agree with this regarding Kanter.  Yeah, he is not exactly Horford but over the next 3-4 seasons, Kanter's production may be right there with him.  He will do different things but the rebounding boost will be nice to have.

3-4 seasons doesn't really matter to this discussion.  Only next year does and in that Kanter is a big downgrade on Horford.  It isn't just defensively either, he is offensively a downgrade as he is no where near the passer or floor spacer that Horford is.  Kanter is better scoring inside and because he is inside more is a more prolific rebounder, but you start putting Kanter out at the perimeter more often and he even loses that.

Kanter is not and never is going to be Al Horford.  And he doesn't need to be.  It's a wrong way to think about this.

We ran the offense through Al Horford because he had those point-forward skills.  We aren't going to run the same offense through a different big who has different skills.   More likely we will lean on a (I expect to be fully healthy) Gordon Hayward who has similar point-forward skills.   And we should structure the offense to take advantage of the skills that our big men have.  Not expect them to be other than what they are.   Kanter is really, really good at skills that can be leveraged by any good coach.

Similarly, you can't think as if we are going to run the defense the same way, trying to just drop-in a replacement for Horford, who is able to play outside the paint and switch on everything.   More likely, I expect we will switch less (especially with Kanter and Kemba) and probably use a lot of 1-4 zone.

There is a coaching challenge here, obviously.  Brad has a different-looking arsenal than he's had the last 3 years.  And it has to be used differently.  But it is still a very talented arsenal and if he's as good of a coach as he's supposed to be this team should be pretty good.