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Jay King Minutes Projection
« on: July 27, 2019, 01:24:30 PM »

Offline Celts Fan 508

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Jay King has an interesting article on the Athletic about Celtics projections and why he thinks this way.  I highly recommend the article, but I want to discuss his minutes projections:

Starters:

Walker 34 minutes
Smart 31 minutes
Tatum 34 minutes
Hayward 34 minutes
Kanter 24 minutes

Bench:
Brown 28 minutes
Edwards 10 minutes
G. Williams 14 minutes
Semi 6 minutes
Theis 24 minutes

Everyone else fighting for the remaining minutes.

I believe that is too few minutes for Brown and Kanter while too much for Theis and G Williams.  I really hope the Celtics would five minutes to Poirier or R Williams than Theis.  His reasoning is sound but this is how he sees it shaking out at the start of the season.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2019, 01:27:16 PM »

Offline makaveli

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Lol @ theis getting 24 minutes
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2019, 01:55:24 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Kanter’s been between 21-25 minutes the last four years. He’s only had one season north of 30.

I agree so many minutes for Theis and zero for Poirier looks off - but then we’ve never seen Poirier against NBA athletes. If he can play effective defense and plus rebounding against second string units I’d definitely look for him to get minutes.

I’d like to see more minutes for Jaylen too, but I don’t know where they come from. I guess we could play smaller ball, esp if Poirier can earn minutes to help anchor the back line.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2019, 02:12:05 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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I think Kanters minutes are about right.  I figure including brown off the bench will be at least somewhat controversial.  I’m thinking we should switch brown and smart, unless we don’t think Kemba is a PG.  Did he play with another PG in Charlotte?

As for theis’ minutes, they sure do seem high but frankly, we’re stuck at the PF and C positions.  Kanter we know will sit a lot because of his defense.  And I’m not really impressed at all with R Williams.  He’ll be a zero on offense and still looks skittish in general.  G Williams is also an unknown.  So SOMEONE has to play there.

As for Edwards, it’s wait and see for me.  He is obviously a willing shooter but he’ll have to learn to play within the team and contribute without scoring.  Whether he can do that I’m not sure.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2019, 02:20:32 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think brown will start and smart will be the sixth man, so I would flip their minutes. Otherwise that looks about right to me.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2019, 02:23:53 PM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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What about Wannamaker?
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2019, 02:26:46 PM »

Offline Silky

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No way should brown come off the bench.

He has proven himself a starter and a key member to the team.

He is getting over 30 minutes a game. Without a doubt.

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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2019, 02:57:40 PM »

Offline Geo123

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G. Williams will be closer to 20 minutes IMO
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2019, 03:10:56 PM »

Offline DrinkinCelticKool-Aid

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I can't believe Robert Williams doesn't get minutes. I thought he showed some development in his game in summer League. I believe he needs real top level play to develop his game, not just G-league, even if there are bumps in the road. I have my doubts that we win it all this year anyway, so I they you should let RW get in there some each game.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2019, 03:14:50 PM »

Offline JBcat

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I don’t think Brown deserves less minutes than the other wings.  I also think the bigs minutes are up for grabs so we can only speculate right now.

I have 2 versions where we are smaller, and one bigger with Smart playing PG

PG Walker 32 Edwards or Wanamaker 16
SG Smart 32 Brown 16
SF Tatum 32 Brown 16
PF Hayward 32

Bigs 64 total minutes

PG Walker 32 Smart 16
SG Brown 32 Smart 16
SF Tatum 32 Hayward 16
PF Hayward 16

Bigs 80 total minutes

Either version I have Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Hayward all playing roughly 32 minutes.    Of course no player will play all 82 games so there will be chances for others.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2019, 03:22:16 PM »

Offline DrinkinCelticKool-Aid

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Quote from: JBcat on July 27, 2019, 03:14:50 PM
I don’t think Brown deserves less minutes than the other wings.  I also think the bigs minutes are up for grabs so we can only speculate right now.

I have 2 versions where we are smaller, and one bigger with Smart playing PG

PG Walker 32 Edwards or Wanamaker 16
SG Smart 32 Brown 16
SF Tatum 32 Brown 16
PF Hayward 32

Bigs 64 total minutes

PG Walker 32 Smart 16
SG Brown 32 Smart 16
SF Tatum 32 Hayward 16
PF Hayward 16

Bigs 80 total minutes

Either version I have Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Hayward all playing roughly 32 minutes.    Of course no player will play all 82 games so there will be chances for others.

Yeah I think Brown's minutes seem low too.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2019, 03:54:03 PM »

Offline Silky

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I will go further

If brown comes off bench to start the season it signals 2 things.

Brad favors hayward over everything else. The runors of last years divide in the locker room eill continue into this season.

2) brown will not resign with celtics and team will lose him for nothing.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2019, 05:18:54 PM »

Offline DrinkinCelticKool-Aid

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Quote from: Silky on July 27, 2019, 03:54:03 PM
I will go further

If brown comes off bench to start the season it signals 2 things.

Brad favors hayward over everything else. The runors of last years divide in the locker room eill continue into this season.

2) brown will not resign with celtics and team will lose him for nothing.

True, and with it being a contract year coming up for Brown, it sure seems they would want him to play as much as possible to show his worth.
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2019, 05:40:51 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Quote from: Silky on July 27, 2019, 03:54:03 PM
I will go further

If Brown comes off bench to start the season it signals 2 things.

Brad favors Hayward over everything else. The rumors of last years divide in the locker room will continue into this season.

2) brown will not resign with Celtics and team will lose him for nothing.

Brown will not really have a choice. If he signs an offer sheet with another team, the Cs will match. If he goes into 20-21 on his QO and no assurances for the future, that would likely be a very foolish idea.

As for the Hayward thing...*yawn*
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Re: Jay King Minutes Projection
« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2019, 05:43:44 PM »

Offline Ogaju

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Quote from: DrinkinCelticKool-Aid on July 27, 2019, 05:18:54 PM
Quote from: Silky on July 27, 2019, 03:54:03 PM
I will go further

If brown comes off bench to start the season it signals 2 things.

Brad favors hayward over everything else. The runors of last years divide in the locker room eill continue into this season.

2) brown will not resign with celtics and team will lose him for nothing.

True, and with it being a contract year coming up for Brown, it sure seems they would want him to play as much as possible to show his worth.

who is they? the team or Brown's camp?
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