Trade proposal: Rozier to Suns for 6th pick

[Donoghus]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

This team's W/L record will be worse if Terry Rozier is starting for this team next year. 

[Moranis]

Rozier's starts this year.

Loss @ Utah
Win NOP
Win MIN
Win DAL
Loss @ BKN
Win CLE
Win BKN
Win CHO
Win @ CLE
Win @ PHI
Win @ SAC
Win @ CLE
Loss @ BKN
Win @ Was

Not exactly a whose who of opponents among that 11-3 record including just 2-3 against playoff teams. 

Last year he started 16 games

Home Wins - NKY, ATL, POR, OKC, TOR, CHI
Road Wins - ORL, POR, SAC, PHO, UTA
Home Losses - WAS, ATL
Road Losses - NOP, TOR, WAS

A bit better opponents with the 11-5 record as that equates to 5-4 against playoff teams.


As with all things, schedule matters.  Not just for record, but for stats as well, as you play worse teams they generally don't defend as well.

I think you unwittingly are making a better case for him as a starter. That is an impressive won/loss record, regardless of competition. We lost to a lot of bad teams last year on multiple occasions.

In the regular season, Boston is 7-7 against playoff teams the last 2 years with Rozier starting and 11-8 in the playoffs, so 18-15 overall.  However, if you remove Philly from the equation, Boston is 6-7 and 7-7 or 13-14 with Rozier starting against non-Philly playoff teams.  In addition, taking the playoff teams out of it, of the 16 games, 10 were against teams with less than 30 wins. 

It just isn't an impressive record at all.

[RazzelnoDazzel]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

This team's W/L record will be worse if Terry Rozier is starting for this team next year.

Well losing an All-star Caliber player such as Kyrie our W/L record should have been higher anyway. As long as we stay competitive then I’m fine.

[RazzelnoDazzel]

Rozier's starts this year.

Loss @ Utah
Win NOP
Win MIN
Win DAL
Loss @ BKN
Win CLE
Win BKN
Win CHO
Win @ CLE
Win @ PHI
Win @ SAC
Win @ CLE
Loss @ BKN
Win @ Was

Not exactly a whose who of opponents among that 11-3 record including just 2-3 against playoff teams. 

Last year he started 16 games

Home Wins - NKY, ATL, POR, OKC, TOR, CHI
Road Wins - ORL, POR, SAC, PHO, UTA
Home Losses - WAS, ATL
Road Losses - NOP, TOR, WAS

A bit better opponents with the 11-5 record as that equates to 5-4 against playoff teams.


As with all things, schedule matters.  Not just for record, but for stats as well, as you play worse teams they generally don't defend as well.

I think you unwittingly are making a better case for him as a starter. That is an impressive won/loss record, regardless of competition. We lost to a lot of bad teams last year on multiple occasions.

In the regular season, Boston is 7-7 against playoff teams the last 2 years with Rozier starting and 11-8 in the playoffs, so 18-15 overall.  However, if you remove Philly from the equation, Boston is 6-7 and 7-7 or 13-14 with Rozier starting against non-Philly playoff teams.  In addition, taking the playoff teams out of it, of the 16 games, 10 were against teams with less than 30 wins. 

It just isn't an impressive record at all.

Bro you can add and subtract teams all you want to manipulate your argument. What’s Kyries record vs playoff teams in the playoffs without Lebron? What’s Kyries record without Lebron? Like chill our man. 

[mmmmm]

Rozier's starts this year.

Loss @ Utah
Win NOP
Win MIN
Win DAL
Loss @ BKN
Win CLE
Win BKN
Win CHO
Win @ CLE
Win @ PHI
Win @ SAC
Win @ CLE
Loss @ BKN
Win @ Was

Not exactly a whose who of opponents among that 11-3 record including just 2-3 against playoff teams. 

Last year he started 16 games

Home Wins - NKY, ATL, POR, OKC, TOR, CHI
Road Wins - ORL, POR, SAC, PHO, UTA
Home Losses - WAS, ATL
Road Losses - NOP, TOR, WAS

A bit better opponents with the 11-5 record as that equates to 5-4 against playoff teams.


As with all things, schedule matters.  Not just for record, but for stats as well, as you play worse teams they generally don't defend as well.

I think you unwittingly are making a better case for him as a starter. That is an impressive won/loss record, regardless of competition. We lost to a lot of bad teams last year on multiple occasions.

In the regular season, Boston is 7-7 against playoff teams the last 2 years with Rozier starting and 11-8 in the playoffs, so 18-15 overall.  However, if you remove Philly from the equation, Boston is 6-7 and 7-7 or 13-14 with Rozier starting against non-Philly playoff teams.  In addition, taking the playoff teams out of it, of the 16 games, 10 were against teams with less than 30 wins. 

It just isn't an impressive record at all.

I'm confused here ... why are you removing the Philly games?

[Sophomore]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

The ball movement story again. Last year, Terry held the ball as long as Kyrie did during his front court touches. NBA tracking data shows Kyrie at 4.27 sec/touch and Terry at 4.22. Does that .05 of a second mean the ball is popping when Terry is in?  https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=AVG_SEC_PER_TOUCH&dir=1

It is true that Terry passes a bit more per minute of playing time, on average; 1.8 passes/minute compared to 1.55 for Kyrie. But his passes have no purpose; he's just getting rid of the ball after dribbling to nowhere.  Per basketball reference, Kyrie had an assist %age of 35; Terry had an assist %age of 17.7. Per NBA tracking data, Kyrie's assist-to-pass %age (adj) was 15.6; Terry's was 8.8. That put Terry below Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum as an assist creator - i.e., bad, especially for a point guard.

Net - Terry held the ball as long as Kyrie, but because he can't see the game he doesn't set up scores. He just lets the ball go like a hot potato (poor assist rate) or else launches a very low %age shot (7% below league average true shooting, well toward the bottom for guards playing 15 mins+ per game).

Who knows. Maybe we need a do-nothing PG so the other players can take over. But if that's right, it doesn't mean Terry is special.

[wiley]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

This team's W/L record will be worse if Terry Rozier is starting for this team next year.

I vote to let him prove that...so far hasn’t been the case...



Even if he struggles, he will again show that he’s a valuable asset in case want to trade..    Give him the job! 

[RazzelnoDazzel]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

This team's W/L record will be worse if Terry Rozier is starting for this team next year.

I vote to let him prove that...so far hasn’t been the case...



Even if he struggles, he will again show that he’s a valuable asset in case want to trade..    Give him the job!

My point exactly. Let him prove he’s at least as bad as y’all are suggesting.

[RazzelnoDazzel]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

The ball movement story again. Last year, Terry held the ball as long as Kyrie did during his front court touches. NBA tracking data shows Kyrie at 4.27 sec/touch and Terry at 4.22. Does that .05 of a second mean the ball is popping when Terry is in?  https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=AVG_SEC_PER_TOUCH&dir=1

It is true that Terry passes a bit more per minute of playing time, on average; 1.8 passes/minute compared to 1.55 for Kyrie. But his passes have no purpose; he's just getting rid of the ball after dribbling to nowhere.  Per basketball reference, Kyrie had an assist %age of 35; Terry had an assist %age of 17.7. Per NBA tracking data, Kyrie's assist-to-pass %age (adj) was 15.6; Terry's was 8.8. That put Terry below Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum as an assist creator - i.e., bad, especially for a point guard.

Net - Terry held the ball as long as Kyrie, but because he can't see the game he doesn't set up scores. He just lets the ball go like a hot potato (poor assist rate) or else launches a very low %age shot (7% below league average true shooting, well toward the bottom for guards playing 15 mins+ per game).

Who knows. Maybe we need a do-nothing PG so the other players can take over. But if that's right, it doesn't mean Terry is special.

My argument has never been that “Terry is so great and special” my argument is that he is suitable for the teams needs. Maybe we don’t need a PG who does a lot because we have a lot of people who can handle the ball already. Decisions like that can be adjusted as the seasons goes.

This would be much harder to do with Kyrie as he has won a certain way before, so he feels like that way is what it takes to win. This is the downfall with winning at an early age. Kyrie has a lot more growing pains to go through in his career.

[ETNCeltics]

Rozier is poison. He's gone regardless of what happens with Irving or anyone else.

[mmmmm]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

The ball movement story again. Last year, Terry held the ball as long as Kyrie did during his front court touches. NBA tracking data shows Kyrie at 4.27 sec/touch and Terry at 4.22. Does that .05 of a second mean the ball is popping when Terry is in?  https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=AVG_SEC_PER_TOUCH&dir=1

It is true that Terry passes a bit more per minute of playing time, on average; 1.8 passes/minute compared to 1.55 for Kyrie. But his passes have no purpose; he's just getting rid of the ball after dribbling to nowhere.  Per basketball reference, Kyrie had an assist %age of 35; Terry had an assist %age of 17.7. Per NBA tracking data, Kyrie's assist-to-pass %age (adj) was 15.6; Terry's was 8.8. That put Terry below Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum as an assist creator - i.e., bad, especially for a point guard.

Be careful how you interpret this data.   The sample for Kyrie is dominated by time spent with Kyrie as the primary ball-handler.   The sample for Terry has a huge portion where he shared the floor with either Kyrie or Marcus and was really in a 'wing' role.   His touches in that role would be more often those of a finisher.

Try isolating on just the games that Terry started (where he would spend a much larger percentage of his time as primary ball handler) and his assist-to-pass percentage goes up significantly.

Another way to look at this is to isolate on lineups with Terry but without Kyrie or Marcus sharing the floor.    Over the last two seasons, with either of those guys on the floor with him, Terry's AST% (percentage of teammate's shots that he assisted) is around just ~17%.   But in lineups where Terry is the only small guard, his AST% is closer to 25%, which is a typical PG assist rate.  Note that even in that role, he still has a microscopic TOV% rate of just 8.4%.   So increased playmaking responsibilities didn't result in increased turnovers.

[MichiganAdam]

Rozier's starts this year.

Loss @ Utah
Win NOP
Win MIN
Win DAL
Loss @ BKN
Win CLE
Win BKN
Win CHO
Win @ CLE
Win @ PHI
Win @ SAC
Win @ CLE
Loss @ BKN
Win @ Was

Not exactly a whose who of opponents among that 11-3 record including just 2-3 against playoff teams. 

Last year he started 16 games

Home Wins - NKY, ATL, POR, OKC, TOR, CHI
Road Wins - ORL, POR, SAC, PHO, UTA
Home Losses - WAS, ATL
Road Losses - NOP, TOR, WAS

A bit better opponents with the 11-5 record as that equates to 5-4 against playoff teams.


As with all things, schedule matters.  Not just for record, but for stats as well, as you play worse teams they generally don't defend as well.

Right so start Rozier, that’s what I said. I recall losing to the worse of the worse with Kyrie starting. At least we win game we supposed to win. The team is young we are supposed to struggle on the road, that’s what the vets are supposed to cure. Making more and more sense to Keep Rozier because with him starting we still WIN.

Cost/production wise I’m not sure who you would replace him with right now. Unless we are signing Rondo who are you replacing him with? He is a starting caliber PG and y’all want that to walk for nothing, but cry about Kyrie walking for nothing??? Y’all make no sense here lol.

I'd try for Beverly with the MLE if at all possible.  Beverly, Smart, brown for stretched would be huge.

[Donoghus]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

This team's W/L record will be worse if Terry Rozier is starting for this team next year.

I vote to let him prove that...so far hasn’t been the case...



Even if he struggles, he will again show that he’s a valuable asset in case want to trade..    Give him the job!

I'm fine passing on that. I've seen enough.  Even if Kyrie walks, I would let Rozier walk also.   He left as bad of a taste in mouth as anyone this past season.  Thought his attitude sucked.  His play was so erratic.   I think there will prove to be better options out there both internally & externally.  And it'll probably be cheaper.

[RazzelnoDazzel]

Rozier's starts this year.

Loss @ Utah
Win NOP
Win MIN
Win DAL
Loss @ BKN
Win CLE
Win BKN
Win CHO
Win @ CLE
Win @ PHI
Win @ SAC
Win @ CLE
Loss @ BKN
Win @ Was

Not exactly a whose who of opponents among that 11-3 record including just 2-3 against playoff teams. 

Last year he started 16 games

Home Wins - NKY, ATL, POR, OKC, TOR, CHI
Road Wins - ORL, POR, SAC, PHO, UTA
Home Losses - WAS, ATL
Road Losses - NOP, TOR, WAS

A bit better opponents with the 11-5 record as that equates to 5-4 against playoff teams.


As with all things, schedule matters.  Not just for record, but for stats as well, as you play worse teams they generally don't defend as well.

Right so start Rozier, that’s what I said. I recall losing to the worse of the worse with Kyrie starting. At least we win game we supposed to win. The team is young we are supposed to struggle on the road, that’s what the vets are supposed to cure. Making more and more sense to Keep Rozier because with him starting we still WIN.

Cost/production wise I’m not sure who you would replace him with right now. Unless we are signing Rondo who are you replacing him with? He is a starting caliber PG and y’all want that to walk for nothing, but cry about Kyrie walking for nothing??? Y’all make no sense here lol.

I'd try for Beverly with the MLE if at all possible.  Beverly, Smart, brown for stretched would be huge.

Here goes that “Beverley” like his numbers are sooo much better than Roziers lol.

[Sophomore]

This team is taking a step backwards next year if Rozier is the starting PG.

YOU ARE LOSING KYRIE IRVING. Duh you are taking a step in TALENT backwards, but as far as ball movement? Idk man.

The ball movement story again. Last year, Terry held the ball as long as Kyrie did during his front court touches. NBA tracking data shows Kyrie at 4.27 sec/touch and Terry at 4.22. Does that .05 of a second mean the ball is popping when Terry is in?  https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=AVG_SEC_PER_TOUCH&dir=1

It is true that Terry passes a bit more per minute of playing time, on average; 1.8 passes/minute compared to 1.55 for Kyrie. But his passes have no purpose; he's just getting rid of the ball after dribbling to nowhere.  Per basketball reference, Kyrie had an assist %age of 35; Terry had an assist %age of 17.7. Per NBA tracking data, Kyrie's assist-to-pass %age (adj) was 15.6; Terry's was 8.8. That put Terry below Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum as an assist creator - i.e., bad, especially for a point guard.

Be careful how you interpret this data.   The sample for Kyrie is dominated by time spent with Kyrie as the primary ball-handler.   The sample for Terry has a huge portion where he shared the floor with either Kyrie or Marcus and was really in a 'wing' role.   His touches in that role would be more often those of a finisher.

Try isolating on just the games that Terry started (where he would spend a much larger percentage of his time as primary ball handler) and his assist-to-pass percentage goes up significantly.

Another way to look at this is to isolate on lineups with Terry but without Kyrie or Marcus sharing the floor.    Over the last two seasons, with either of those guys on the floor with him, Terry's AST% (percentage of teammate's shots that he assisted) is around just ~17%.   But in lineups where Terry is the only small guard, his AST% is closer to 25%, which is a typical PG assist rate.  Note that even in that role, he still has a microscopic TOV% rate of just 8.4%.   So increased playmaking responsibilities didn't result in increased turnovers.

What do you make of the NBA tracking stat - %age of player passes that end in an assist? I can't see why playing with Smart or Kyrie would tank that stat for Rozier; I think it's pretty strong evidence, confirming the eye test observation that he doesn't know how to create good shots or find open teammates in position to shoot.  Note that Rozier's number is lower than Tatum and Brown's.

To me, this actually fits with his low turnover stat. He dribbles around for about as long as Kyrie, then just dumps the ball back to the nearest teammate (or launches a low percentage shot).

On the Bball reference stat, can you send a link or a screenshot to show Terry's assist % when he's in a lineup without Kyrie or Marcus? I don't see how to derive that from the site.