Is Leonard the new best player of the league?

[celticsclay]

Do you realize the statistical drop off between players at 33 and 35 is a complete cliff though? I realize Lebron is a freak, so this is already giving him a huge benefit of the doubt. Look at this article:

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

If Lebron was the biggest super man in the world maybe he only declines 20% from 2017 playoffs to 2018 playoffs and 30% from 2018 to 2019. That would be a miracle. Suggesting he can do what Leonard is doing now at 35.5 (his birthday is december) seems really ludicrous and completely off-base from the history of the nba.

Your point about aging is well taken, but I think LeBron has already proven to be an exception to a lot of those trends.


I'm just saying that I think it's premature to declare that LeBron is "not even top 5" anymore.

He's still in the uppermost tier of players, at least when we're talking about who is capable of dominating a post-season series.


My position is that there is no clear cut "best player in the world" right now, because there are so many guys for whom you can make an argument and so much of who ends up on top depends on the context -- luck, teammates, injuries, schemes, opponent matchups.  I think that's a really good thing.

I would say he has already been an exception playing at this level at 33 and 34... I am not really ready to suspend believe any further for him not regressing significantly this year (and he did regress pretty significantly last year in my eyes). Also, while we can say we didn't get to see him get into playoff mode last year, he made a public comment about activitating playoff mode early last year

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/03/lakers-lebron-james-playoff-mode

and he didn't have enough left in the tank to do it as the Lakers lost to a series of terrible teams....

Thinking he can do what Leonard is doing these playoffs (one of the all time great nba playoff performances) a year down the road from now, is still in my opinion, like i said earlier absolutely crazy.

your eyes deceive you.  Basically every defensive metric said Lebron was better in LA than he was his last year in Cleveland.  And his counting stats were basically the same.  Obviously he missed a lot more games and his shooting percentages were all down, which affected his offensive efficiency, but he was still scoring, rebounding, and passing better than his career averages.  And Lebron clearly kicked it up a very large amount in the playoffs in Cleveland significantly improving upon his regular season counting stats and his advanced metrics across the board. 

And let's be clear, once Leonard was actually guarding Giannis, his efficiency suffered a lot.  In fact, his efficiency has gone down a lot since game 4 of the Philly series, when he was asked to do a lot more.  8 of the first 9 playoff games he shot over 54%, including 5 at 60% or better.  Since that time he has been above 46.2% just 1 time.  Kawhi quite simply isn't used to running an offense and he is getting tired.  It takes so much out of a player to bring the ball up the court, direct the offense, and have everything run through you.  Kawhi, quite simply, has never been that type of player and it is also why he can be locked in defensively far more frequently than many of the other great players.  It is also why I've always been less high on him than others are.  I still think he is the 5th best player in the world, but I'd absolutely have Giannis, Durant, Curry, and James ahead of him and I wouldn't give it a second thought.

You just brushed off Lebron’s diminished overall efficiency, essentially stating it wasn’t a factor in determining his greatness and then turned around and stated Leonard, when guarding one of the other top players in the league, wasn’t as great because he was inefficient.

Your logic confuses me.

No I'm saying Leonard's diminished efficiency made him much worse than James.  Leonard can't handle the load like the 4 guys I listed (yes even Giannis - put their numbers side by side, the Bucks lost because of the supporting cast).  Leonard shot 34.4% from 3 against the Bucks.  He was 44.2% from the field against the Bucks.  He was barely over 4 assists a game and he was under 30 points per game.  The last 3 games against the Sixers, Leonard was 2 of 17 from 3.  Even in game 7 where he scored 41 points, it took him 39 shots. 

Leonard's ECF was far worse than James was in the ECF last year against Boston.  In fact, James was essentially better in every single playoff series he had last year (James shot pretty poorly against the Raptors), then Leonard was against the Bucks.  Because James, quite simply just does more than Leonard and always has.  When James is locked in and focused, he is still better than Leonard.

Tp gouki

[Vox_Populi]

I would still default to James probably. Among Playoff players? Yes, I would pick Leonard.

[footey]

Do you realize the statistical drop off between players at 33 and 35 is a complete cliff though? I realize Lebron is a freak, so this is already giving him a huge benefit of the doubt. Look at this article:

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

If Lebron was the biggest super man in the world maybe he only declines 20% from 2017 playoffs to 2018 playoffs and 30% from 2018 to 2019. That would be a miracle. Suggesting he can do what Leonard is doing now at 35.5 (his birthday is december) seems really ludicrous and completely off-base from the history of the nba.

Your point about aging is well taken, but I think LeBron has already proven to be an exception to a lot of those trends.


I'm just saying that I think it's premature to declare that LeBron is "not even top 5" anymore.

He's still in the uppermost tier of players, at least when we're talking about who is capable of dominating a post-season series.


My position is that there is no clear cut "best player in the world" right now, because there are so many guys for whom you can make an argument and so much of who ends up on top depends on the context -- luck, teammates, injuries, schemes, opponent matchups.  I think that's a really good thing.

I would say he has already been an exception playing at this level at 33 and 34... I am not really ready to suspend believe any further for him not regressing significantly this year (and he did regress pretty significantly last year in my eyes). Also, while we can say we didn't get to see him get into playoff mode last year, he made a public comment about activitating playoff mode early last year

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/03/lakers-lebron-james-playoff-mode

and he didn't have enough left in the tank to do it as the Lakers lost to a series of terrible teams....

Thinking he can do what Leonard is doing these playoffs (one of the all time great nba playoff performances) a year down the road from now, is still in my opinion, like i said earlier absolutely crazy.

your eyes deceive you.  Basically every defensive metric said Lebron was better in LA than he was his last year in Cleveland.  And his counting stats were basically the same.  Obviously he missed a lot more games and his shooting percentages were all down, which affected his offensive efficiency, but he was still scoring, rebounding, and passing better than his career averages.  And Lebron clearly kicked it up a very large amount in the playoffs in Cleveland significantly improving upon his regular season counting stats and his advanced metrics across the board. 

And let's be clear, once Leonard was actually guarding Giannis, his efficiency suffered a lot.  In fact, his efficiency has gone down a lot since game 4 of the Philly series, when he was asked to do a lot more.  8 of the first 9 playoff games he shot over 54%, including 5 at 60% or better.  Since that time he has been above 46.2% just 1 time.  Kawhi quite simply isn't used to running an offense and he is getting tired.  It takes so much out of a player to bring the ball up the court, direct the offense, and have everything run through you.  Kawhi, quite simply, has never been that type of player and it is also why he can be locked in defensively far more frequently than many of the other great players.  It is also why I've always been less high on him than others are.  I still think he is the 5th best player in the world, but I'd absolutely have Giannis, Durant, Curry, and James ahead of him and I wouldn't give it a second thought.

You just brushed off Lebron’s diminished overall efficiency, essentially stating it wasn’t a factor in determining his greatness and then turned around and stated Leonard, when guarding one of the other top players in the league, wasn’t as great because he was inefficient.

Your logic confuses me.

No I'm saying Leonard's diminished efficiency made him much worse than James.  Leonard can't handle the load like the 4 guys I listed (yes even Giannis - put their numbers side by side, the Bucks lost because of the supporting cast).  Leonard shot 34.4% from 3 against the Bucks.  He was 44.2% from the field against the Bucks.  He was barely over 4 assists a game and he was under 30 points per game.  The last 3 games against the Sixers, Leonard was 2 of 17 from 3.  Even in game 7 where he scored 41 points, it took him 39 shots. 

Leonard's ECF was far worse than James was in the ECF last year against Boston.  In fact, James was essentially better in every single playoff series he had last year (James shot pretty poorly against the Raptors), then Leonard was against the Bucks.  Because James, quite simply just does more than Leonard and always has.  When James is locked in and focused, he is still better than Leonard.

Why are we comparing stats of a guy playing hurt?

[Fafnir]

LBJ isn't guarding the primary option of the other team for almost the whole game anymore. Kawhi is better than him now because of that, especially in a playoff setting.

I'd rate Steph and Durant ahead of him, but I understand if you'd put Kawhi above either of them. I also think Giannis is right their with Kawhi, though the dynamics of the their two teams matching up made Kawhi a superior player this series. (Kawhi can clearly do more in the half court iso style of game)

[celticsclay]

LBJ isn't guarding the primary option of the other team for almost the whole game anymore. Kawhi is better than him now because of that, especially in a playoff setting.

I'd rate Steph and Durant ahead of him, but I understand if you'd put Kawhi above either of them. I also think Giannis is right their with Kawhi, though the dynamics of the their two teams matching up made Kawhi a superior player this series. (Kawhi can clearly do more in the half court iso style of game)

Thank you Fafnir, to build on this: "Put Kawhi's heroics on offense to the side for a moment. What he did as a defender was Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi-level stuff.

For the series, Giannis has nine points in the 60 possessions Kawhi has guarded him. The Bucks have 55 points in those possessions. That's 91.7 points per 100 possessions. This postseason, Milwaukee is scoring 111.6 points per 100 possessions, which trails only the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets' marks.

When Kawhi is on Giannis, the Bucks score 19.9 fewer points per 100 possessions.

On a more basic level, Giannis is 4-of-16 when defended by Kawhi. In Game 3 alone, he was 2-of-12.

The numbers are even more staggering when compared to what he's doing against the rest of the Raptors.

When Giannis is defended by Raptors not named Kawhi, Milwaukee has scored 211 points on 184 possessions (114.7 points per 100 possessions). Giannis himself has scored 57 points on 18-of-36 shooting against the rest of Toronto."

For those thinking a 35 year old Lebron can do this AND carry the offensive load, it is just a mind blowingly bad and unrealistic take.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837174-did-kawhi-leonard-raptors-find-the-secret-to-shutting-down-giannis