Sullinger is our future

[Celtics4ever]

I think the cupboard is not bare when KG retires and PP.  Bradley, Rondo, Sully and Green are a nice start to rebuild.  But we will have to use our cap space wisely and draft well.

[PhoSita]

I am wondering if it is in the best interests to give Sully 30+ minutes a night in the future. 


Not because of his talent but because of his back. 


Could it give his career as a strong contributor to the Celtics more longevity if he played under 30 minutes a game because of his back?




I don't think he is ever going to be the center piece or top three player on a contending Celtics team.  Just an important role piece.

My understanding of the surgery and everything is that it should be dealt with in a way that hopefully it won't cause further problems -- at least in the sense  of reinjuring it if he plays starter minutes.

I expect he'll take some time to get back to form -- just look at Dwight Howard this season -- but I expect he'll be able to play 30+ minutes if he can keep from fouling out.

Except he has a history of back issues.  It is why he dropped to the Celtics.

  Does he really have a history of back issues? He doesn't seem to have lost much (if any) time to injury in college.

He doesn't have a history of back issues.  He has, now, after his season ending surgery, a history of back issue -- singular.  There as a red flag before the season, but that came as a surprise to many people and is the main reason he dropped so far so quickly right before the draft.

[BballTim]

I am wondering if it is in the best interests to give Sully 30+ minutes a night in the future. 


Not because of his talent but because of his back. 


Could it give his career as a strong contributor to the Celtics more longevity if he played under 30 minutes a game because of his back?




I don't think he is ever going to be the center piece or top three player on a contending Celtics team.  Just an important role piece.

My understanding of the surgery and everything is that it should be dealt with in a way that hopefully it won't cause further problems -- at least in the sense  of reinjuring it if he plays starter minutes.

I expect he'll take some time to get back to form -- just look at Dwight Howard this season -- but I expect he'll be able to play 30+ minutes if he can keep from fouling out.

Except he has a history of back issues.  It is why he dropped to the Celtics.

  Does he really have a history of back issues? He doesn't seem to have lost much (if any) time to injury in college.

He doesn't have a history of back issues.  He has, now, after his season ending surgery, a history of back issue -- singular.  There as a red flag before the season, but that came as a surprise to many people and is the main reason he dropped so far so quickly right before the draft.

  Thanks, that was my understanding as well.

[jbaerg]

I don't see him as a franchise player, but can definitely be that quality #2 option.

That's what he pretty much is right now and it's not working out very well for us at the moment.

I was talking about Sullinger, not Green. But if you think I was talking about Sullinger, you would be correct. A rehabbing PF is not good as a #2 option

[badshar]

An undersized fat center with back problems is our future?  I hope not

LOL did you not get the memo that he is a PF, not a C?

[gpap]

I think Sullinger is a talented player but to say he's our "future" might be overexaggerating. I don't think he's talented enough to be a franchise player and those back problems of his are worrysome, as in worried that his back will never be quite right.

I suppose the only way to answer this is to see how he rebounds next year. If he's in better shape and looks healthier, then yeah he could definitely be one of our top players going forward.

There's no doubt he is a great rebounder!

[CFAN38]

For those calling Sully "FAT" do you also consider Kevin love, Greg Monroe and Derrick Williams Fat?

All three had higher body fat percentages then Sullys 10.7 in the predaft combine.
Kevin love was 12.9% @ 255lbs

Sullinger was 10.7% @ 268lbs


With that said I think its crazy to say "Sully is our future". Is is however a piece of the future if he can come back healthy.

He and BBD obviously play a similar role for this team.

BBD in his 2nd season averaged  21min 7pt  @ .42% 4rb
Sully in rookie season averaged 20min 6pt  @ .49% 6rb

BBD best season as a C averaged 30min 12pt @ .44% 5.4rb

I think its safe to expect a healthy Sully to be able to give this team 12pts 9rbs a game in the same role.

After KG + PP I would think he would be capable of picking it up to become a 15pt 10rb guy similar to Boozer.

[mmmmm]

Obviously, a lot depends on whether Sully fully recovers from the back surgery and whether there are any long term issues from that.

As others have said, my understanding, too, is that the nature of the procedure here should be a permanent fix and that he should be fine going forward.   I would not say I have 100% certainty of that.

Assuming his health is fine, I do believe some folks are seriously underestimating his talent and his upside.

Sully was considered a lock for the top 5 if he'd come out in the 2011 draft.  And he only fell out of that in the 2012 draft because of the red flag on his back problem.    And the reason he was considered such a high prospect isn't because he 'willed himself' to be a great 'college' player.   Scouts got a ton of looks at this kid so the talent and potential assessments were for real.

We got him as the 20th pick.    So how does he stack up to last year's rookie class?

Well, even though he missed the last half of the season, and didn't start to play regularly until we were into mid-winter, he STILL finished 8th among all rookies in Win Shares.

Since his season was cut short, let's look at efficiencies:

Among rookies with at least 800 minutes, he finished 3rd behind only Drummond and Davis in WS/48.

He finished 4th in Defensive Rebounding Rate, 5th in Offensive Rebounding Rate and 3rd in overall Total Rebounding Rate among rookies with > 800 minutes behind Drummond and Henson.   He grabbed 10.7 rebounds per 36 minutes - 3rd among these rookies.

He finished 6th in FG%, 12th in eFG% and 10th in TS%.

He finished tied for 2nd in individual DRtg.

And he had the 4th lowest TOV% of rookies with this many minutes.

His scoring rates were low, which also dragged his PER down, but when you consider that his USG% and shots per minute were both 25th of these rookies, it's impressive that he was 12th in PER!

Overall, when you look at those rankings, it's pretty clear to me that Sullinger definitely _played_ like one of the top 5 players of his class.   Arguably one of the top 3 big men, in particular.

And he is only 20 years old next season.

If he stays healthy, i see no reason to not expect him to continue to be among the top players of his class as they all mature and develop into their prime in this league.

And we got him with the 20th pick.

[coco]

Now now, let's not get carried away.  Future as in use him as trade bait?  The kid is alright but we'll see....