What is the 21st and 22nd pick worth?

[Zachary5]

lol

[mctyson]

I don't buy that the Celtics are unwilling to pick two rookies. I  believe that they are trying their hardest to move up or deal the pick for an established player but I think when both those things fall through they will just end up picking where they are originally slotted.

I buy both that Danny wants to move up and that Doc doesn't want three rookies on the team with his Boilermakers.

I buy everything but its not that Doc doesn't want 2 more rookies plus the Boilermakers, its that he doesn't have the minutes for 4 rookies + second year players to get any exposure.

If Danny can turn those 2 picks into a relatively youngish veteran who can be part of our 8 man rotation, Doc would probably prefer that.  Danny probably wouldn't, because he is not just focused on next year.

That's why I am leaning towards trading one of the picks, either for a future first or for a veteran rotation guy.

[droopdog7]

I've seen a lot of posts regarding the picks since the season has ended. Most of them view these picks in a negative light in terms of trading up. Since when did two first round picks in any sport allow a team to only move up 5 spots in a draft? Especially a deep draft such as this one? I feel that the overall perception of this team in Boston is that they are doomed no matter what, and that as long as the negativity is around no ones expectations will be raised. Its all about how we perceive these picks

For example

If the Spurs or Heat or Thunder had the 21st and 22nd pick, we would be seeing posts such as the following

-How are we going to deal with Drummond in South Beach? Miami has enough to trade into the top 5
-Will Harrison Barnes help the Spurs? 21 and 22 should be enough to move up
-The 21st and 22nd pick is a lot of ammo to move up in this draft

Instead since this is the Celtics we're talking about these are the following posts

-The 21st and 22nd picks don't really have that much value to move up...maybe to 15th or 16th but that's really it
-The only way this team moves up is if it includes JJJ and Bradley in a deal with both picks
-Lets take Emeka Okafor's contract and give up both picks to move up to 10!
-Trade Rondo to Sacremento with the whole [dang] team and it might get us #5 and Tyreke Evans!!!!!
-BLOW IT UP!!!

In my opinion the picks can get the Celtics up to around the top 10, probably 12-13 range which is about right. Any GM who would give up 2 1st rounders to move up five spots and not get at least a 2nd rounder or a player in return with that higher pick should be running a team in the CBA not the NBA.

My issue is that this is a huge opportunity for the Celtics to become the Spurs. They already have a very young all star point guard at a decent rate (but Celtics fans are AFRAID to admit that Rondo is an All Star pg, like someone will make fun of them and throw rocks at them), they probably have Jeff Green coming back, Avery Bradley has become a lock down defensive force at the two. For everyone that has knocked Ainge's drafts besides the Giddens/Walker draft which one did he really miss on? Gerald Green? This board was going nuts when Green fell to the Celtics and at the time that was a no brainer...you cannot fault Ainge for taking Green.

This is a guy who has drafted Tony Allen, Delonte West, Al Jefferson, Jeff Green (for SEA), Avery Bradley, Glen Davis, Leon Powe (Not his fault about Powe's knees)

He also was responsible for the draft day trades of Kendrick Perkins and Ray Allen

I think the man needs to have the benefit of the doubt here. Not too many GM's in sports have Ainge's resume.

In case he op was still wondering, DA indicated yesterday that we'd be lucky to move up five spots with the two picks.  While he could be wrong, he should know more than any fan.

[tyrone biggums]

I've seen a lot of posts regarding the picks since the season has ended. Most of them view these picks in a negative light in terms of trading up. Since when did two first round picks in any sport allow a team to only move up 5 spots in a draft? Especially a deep draft such as this one? I feel that the overall perception of this team in Boston is that they are doomed no matter what, and that as long as the negativity is around no ones expectations will be raised. Its all about how we perceive these picks

For example

If the Spurs or Heat or Thunder had the 21st and 22nd pick, we would be seeing posts such as the following

-How are we going to deal with Drummond in South Beach? Miami has enough to trade into the top 5
-Will Harrison Barnes help the Spurs? 21 and 22 should be enough to move up
-The 21st and 22nd pick is a lot of ammo to move up in this draft

Instead since this is the Celtics we're talking about these are the following posts

-The 21st and 22nd picks don't really have that much value to move up...maybe to 15th or 16th but that's really it
-The only way this team moves up is if it includes JJJ and Bradley in a deal with both picks
-Lets take Emeka Okafor's contract and give up both picks to move up to 10!
-Trade Rondo to Sacremento with the whole [dang] team and it might get us #5 and Tyreke Evans!!!!!
-BLOW IT UP!!!

In my opinion the picks can get the Celtics up to around the top 10, probably 12-13 range which is about right. Any GM who would give up 2 1st rounders to move up five spots and not get at least a 2nd rounder or a player in return with that higher pick should be running a team in the CBA not the NBA.

My issue is that this is a huge opportunity for the Celtics to become the Spurs. They already have a very young all star point guard at a decent rate (but Celtics fans are AFRAID to admit that Rondo is an All Star pg, like someone will make fun of them and throw rocks at them), they probably have Jeff Green coming back, Avery Bradley has become a lock down defensive force at the two. For everyone that has knocked Ainge's drafts besides the Giddens/Walker draft which one did he really miss on? Gerald Green? This board was going nuts when Green fell to the Celtics and at the time that was a no brainer...you cannot fault Ainge for taking Green.

This is a guy who has drafted Tony Allen, Delonte West, Al Jefferson, Jeff Green (for SEA), Avery Bradley, Glen Davis, Leon Powe (Not his fault about Powe's knees)

He also was responsible for the draft day trades of Kendrick Perkins and Ray Allen

I think the man needs to have the benefit of the doubt here. Not too many GM's in sports have Ainge's resume.

In case he op was still wondering, DA indicated yesterday that we'd be lucky to move up five spots with the two picks.  While he could be wrong, he should know more than any fan.

He did say that but nowhere in his interview did he say "Well the most we can do with these two picks is move up 5 spots" But hey anything can be spun to prove a point.

Ainge also said that he plans to keep all of his free agents too...for all of you who believe Quisy is coming back...please raise your hand..

So unless you have in a transcript that Ainge clearly said "our two draft picks will move us up 5 spots in this draft" don't take cheap shots

He could have meant that he wanted to keep one pick and is only willing to move one pick and a player...once again its very tough to get a read off of a vague statement made on Boston sports radio without going through the scenarios.

But this is like talking to the "Blow It Up" Crowd, The "Amnesty Pierce" Crowd, or the "Trade Rondo" crowd...no matter what you say its like talking to a wall. Those people would have wanted to blow it up even if the team won the title. People will believe that two draft picks can ONLY net the Celtics 5 picks up...no matter what (BTW read my previous posts what I said was if they trade those two to move five spots up Ainge would have to get a 2nd rounder or a player for that scenario to make sense, again reading before taking cheap shots is suggested.) Celtics fans on this board either overreact to every little thing or are just stubborn and need to see a youth movement.

[EDWARDO]

Original poster is WAY off on this and Ainge did basically say that you could only move up a few slots by packaging the picks. Steve Bulpett went through this in pretty good detail on Ctics Stuff as well. Recommend you listen to that. It was spot on, as was the Ainge interview. You seem to be the only person who thinks you can trade our 2 picks and move up to the top ten. Will never happen. Listen to the Bulpett interview is best I can help.

[tyrone biggums]

Original poster is WAY off on this and Ainge did basically say that you could only move up a few slots by packaging the picks. Steve Bulpett went through this in pretty good detail on Ctics Stuff as well. Recommend you listen to that. It was spot on, as was the Ainge interview. You seem to be the only person who thinks you can trade our 2 picks and move up to the top ten. Will never happen. Listen to the Bulpett interview is best I can help.

When did I ever say the top 10? Please don't put words in my mouth

I said 12-14...READ MY POSTS!!!!...Even though this seems like its semantics 10,12,14 etc...it shows that you are not reading anything I'm writing and just making blind assumptions.

If we only move up 5 spots, most likely you would need to kick the Celtics a 2nd round pick to make the deal even (even if its protected etc..)...WHY IS THIS SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND??!!!

[EDWARDO]

You also the only person who could listen to that interview and take from it any commitment to bringing back Quis.

And you say common that other posters don't make any sense?

[tyrone biggums]

You also the only person who could listen to that interview and take from it any commitment to bringing back Quis.

And you say common that other posters don't make any sense?

My main point out of that is that you cannot take everything Ainge said at face value...I used Quisy as an example of that (All of our free agents are better than whats out there, etc...)

I'm still waiting for evidence that all we can get for the two first rounders is just a single first rounder about 5 spots up. We assume a lot based on one single interview...the questions will be answered on Draft Night.

For trade candidates I've used Phoenix and Milwaukee the most neither of which are in the top 10. Lots of the players between 8 and 22 can be switched around in mock drafts, people act like this is a 20 player draft filled with all stars and the Celtics have the short end of the stick sometimes.

If we make any trade for only a few spots up another player or a 2nd rounder is coming back with that pick even if its a conditional one.

EDIT: To add this in as well because I'm pretty much repeating myself...Ainge also never ever said we would need to package both picks to move up 5 spots. Its a logical assumption but there is a lot of ways they could go...he only said I can see us only moving up maybe 5 spots. That could mean the 21st and JJJ or the 21st and Moore or the 21st and Bass in a S&T (If that's even possible or feasible)...lots of variables that once again were not made clear.

[droopdog7]

You also the only person who could listen to that interview and take from it any commitment to bringing back Quis.

And you say common that other posters don't make any sense?

My main point out of that is that you cannot take everything Ainge said at face value...I used Quisy as an example of that (All of our free agents are better than whats out there, etc...)

I'm still waiting for evidence that all we can get for the two first rounders is just a single first rounder about 5 spots up. We assume a lot based on one single interview...the questions will be answered on Draft Night.

For trade candidates I've used Phoenix and Milwaukee the most neither of which are in the top 10. Lots of the players between 8 and 22 can be switched around in mock drafts, people act like this is a 20 player draft filled with all stars and the Celtics have the short end of the stick sometimes.

If we make any trade for only a few spots up another player or a 2nd rounder is coming back with that pick even if its a conditional one.

EDIT: To add this in as well because I'm pretty much repeating myself...Ainge also never ever said we would need to package both picks to move up 5 spots. Its a logical assumption but there is a lot of ways they could go...he only said I can see us only moving up maybe 5 spots. That could mean the 21st and JJJ or the 21st and Moore or the 21st and Bass in a S&T (If that's even possible or feasible)...lots of variables that once again were not made clear.

Here is what u said:  Celtics up to around the top 10, probably 12-13 range

So while u waffled, you certainly did say the celtics could move to top ten.  And your about only being able to move up five spaces throwing in JJJ is another stretch.  If it is logical he was talking about the two picks, then why are we making up other possibilities that are much less likely what he was talking about?  Only to make an argument that fits your opinion, that why.

Finally, I know gm's aren't always forthcoming.  But there are generally logical reasons for not being forthcoming.  You can't just use this idea whenever u want to support your point.  In this case, why would DA lie?  Can you think of a reason for that?  I can't.

So what we have is DA saying we'd be lucky to move five spaces and yet you arbitrarily decide to ignore it because it goes against what you think.

[LooseCannon]

From looking at past transactions, I got the impression that packaging a late first-round pick with a higher pick tended to allow teams to move up about 3-4 spots.

[tyrone biggums]

You also the only person who could listen to that interview and take from it any commitment to bringing back Quis.

And you say common that other posters don't make any sense?

My main point out of that is that you cannot take everything Ainge said at face value...I used Quisy as an example of that (All of our free agents are better than whats out there, etc...)

I'm still waiting for evidence that all we can get for the two first rounders is just a single first rounder about 5 spots up. We assume a lot based on one single interview...the questions will be answered on Draft Night.

For trade candidates I've used Phoenix and Milwaukee the most neither of which are in the top 10. Lots of the players between 8 and 22 can be switched around in mock drafts, people act like this is a 20 player draft filled with all stars and the Celtics have the short end of the stick sometimes.

If we make any trade for only a few spots up another player or a 2nd rounder is coming back with that pick even if its a conditional one.

EDIT: To add this in as well because I'm pretty much repeating myself...Ainge also never ever said we would need to package both picks to move up 5 spots. Its a logical assumption but there is a lot of ways they could go...he only said I can see us only moving up maybe 5 spots. That could mean the 21st and JJJ or the 21st and Moore or the 21st and Bass in a S&T (If that's even possible or feasible)...lots of variables that once again were not made clear.

Here is what u said:  Celtics up to around the top 10, probably 12-13 range

So while u waffled, you certainly did say the celtics could move to top ten.  And your about only being able to move up five spaces throwing in JJJ is another stretch.  If it is logical he was talking about the two picks, then why are we making up other possibilities that are much less likely what he was talking about?  Only to make an argument that fits your opinion, that why.

Finally, I know gm's aren't always forthcoming.  But there are generally logical reasons for not being forthcoming.  You can't just use this idea whenever u want to support your point.  In this case, why would DA lie?  Can you think of a reason for that?  I can't.

So what we have is DA saying we'd be lucky to move five spaces and yet you arbitrarily decide to ignore it because it goes against what you think.

1) I said around a certain area, hell if you really want to go further then you can also spin it that the Celitcs can get up to the 8th pick...since that's "around the top 10 also"...come on, if you're going to go after me for being "far fetched" this point is even worse

2) there's a post every offseason on how Danny isn't telling the truth...it's a business to either drum up interest in a transaction or to build a smoke screen on what he's really trying to do...so do I believe everything Ainge says? Absolutely not even if it's something is trivial as picks.

3) You often see transactions on draft night that include foreign players, current players, and of course the picks. The C's are also picking in the 2nd round too, so perhaps Ainge wants to use 1 first to move up and keep the 2nd one. To do this he would have to package a player that's currently on the roster or include a future draft pick whether its a high 2nd rounder or whatever. Its not an argument about supporting my opinion, I never said he was talking about that I just asked that we stop assuming that Ainge was talking about trading both first rounders and see what he actually does. We can debate on this all day, you could be wrong or I could be wrong. We'll find out on draft night, hell they could stay at 21 and 22 or move out of the first round completely...who knows! In those transactions that two first rounders only move teams up 3-5 spots the team receiving the higher 1st rounder usually gets some kind of 2nd rounder even if its pick #50.

This thread wasn't meant to debate my point specifically but just the general perception on what 21 and 22 is actually worth. My points are my opinions, I could sure as hell be wrong but until Ainge only gets the 17th pick for moving up both picks then I'm going to stick to my opinion.

[Tr1boy]

You get one of these three players, Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, Iguadala for both picks plus none of Bradley, Rondo then i`m down for a trade.

Otherwise , who in the 10-20 range are you dying to draft

Just waiting and picking the best avail for 21 and 22 will be the best plan. This is a deep draft. Lucky that after about 23 though the quality of picks suddenly are not as good

[tyrone biggums]

You get one of these three players, Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, Iguadala for both picks plus none of Bradley, Rondo then i`m down for a trade.

Otherwise , who in the 10-20 range are you dying to draft

Just waiting and picking the best avail for 21 and 22 will be the best plan. This is a deep draft. Lucky that after about 23 though the quality of picks suddenly are not as good

Getting out of draft night with Josh Smith in tow would be the best case scenario. But who do the Celtics have that Atlanta would want. Obviously for Smith you have to give up both firsts at least and probably sign and trade Bass...but I don't know what the rules are regarding a sign and trade for a team that's over the cap (they still have something stupid like 25 million in cap holds)