Chris Sheridan with an optimistic outlook on the lockout...

[Chris]

Chris Sheridan (who apparently has left...or was asked to leave...ESPN) with a positive spin on the negotiations.

http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/09/05/nba-lockout-update-sides-are-closer-than-theyre-saying/

Personally, I think this article is right on.  I am not as optimistic as he is that they won't miss any regular season games, but I agree with him that the perception that the two sides are miles apart is just that, a perception.  So, I think if they can get past those perceptions within the actual negotiations, and focus on closing the smaller than advertised gap, they can get a deal done sooner than later.

I also think he made a tremendous point regarding the hard cap, which the owners are pushing for.  He suggests that the compromise to make on that is by delaying the rollout of the harder cap from year 3 to years 5 or 6 of the agreement.  He is right that the players are going to hold strong on any deal that would require a significant give back of salaries from contracts already signed (the agents would NEVER allow that), and rolling out a hard cap in 3 years would force that to happen.  However, if the rollout is delayed to year 5, then teams will have enough time to rework their pay structures, and become compliant by dealing with future contracts, so essentially every current contract is grandfathered into the old deal.

Anyways, if anyone wants a little hope that the season will be played, this is a good read.

[greenpride32]

Reading the article doesn't make me feel the two sides are any closer.  The author makes the point the sides are only $170m apart for year one, but that's an escalating number that rises to $420m by year three.  With ~430 players in the league that's $1m/year/player.  While I still believe an agreement can be reached soon, those numbers aren't exactly insignificant.

[Chris]

Reading the article doesn't make me feel the two sides are any closer.  The author makes the point the sides are only $170m apart for year one, but that's an escalating number that rises to $420m by year three.  With ~430 players in the league that's $1m/year/player.  While I still believe an agreement can be reached soon, those numbers aren't exactly insignificant.

When you are comparing it to the $8 billion apart that has been reported by others, it makes it sound much better.

And when you look at them being apart by $1m per player (on average), that's not a whole lot...since this is still very early in the process.  If these were "final" offers, then perhaps it would be significant, but they have barely even sat down to negotiate yet, they are supposed to be far apart. 

What Sheridan points out is that they are not actually so far apart that they can't find a middle ground. 

[greenpride32]

When you are comparing it to the $8 billion apart that has been reported by others, it makes it sound much better.

The $8b figure comes from a proposed 10 year deal.  Sheridan's article states the gap is now $3b over 6 years.  He's just playing around with numbers but that's the same information that was out in August.  When I first saw the article I was thinking it might have some leaked info from the recent meeting that just took place.  Maybe we'll see some updates after today's session, and the potential ones for later this week.

[Chris]

When you are comparing it to the $8 billion apart that has been reported by others, it makes it sound much better.

The $8b figure comes from a proposed 10 year deal.  Sheridan's article states the gap is now $3b over 6 years.  He's just playing around with numbers but that's the same information that was out in August.  When I first saw the article I was thinking it might have some leaked info from the recent meeting that just took place.  Maybe we'll see some updates after today's session, and the potential ones for later this week.

That's the point.  He is putting a different spin on the same information.  Everyone has been all gloom and doom based on the way the story was spun (and both sides wanted it spun that way, with the hope it would make the other side crack).

The point is, the two sides have never been as far apart as it has been portrayed, both in the media, and by the two sides.  So, if both sides do get serious, like it appears they have become, then something could actually be done.  If you read the majority of articles about the lockout over the last few months, that have focused on the "8 Billion" difference in the offers, you would definitely not get the impression that a deal is even possible anytime soon.

[LB3533]

I don't believe a longterm deal is close.

They may try to salvage the season and come up with a short term "lease" type of agreement, but even that is far fetched.

[greenpride32]

They're basically in last ditch attempt mode to save the entire season; that's all these meeting really are about this week.  Both sides want that to happen, but finding common ground may be difficult.  If that can't happen they'll have about 4 months or so to figure something out for a shortened season.  If I'm not mistaken the '98 lockout was not settled until early JAN (of '99) with games starting in late JAN.

[Chris]

I don't believe a longterm deal is close.

They may try to salvage the season and come up with a short term "lease" type of agreement, but even that is far fetched.

It's an interesting point.  I doubt that would happen though.  I think the owners grinned and beared it with the last deal, but they are not going to do it again.  They want to change the system, and everytime they put it off longer, it becomes harder to do.