Taking a flyer: Greg Oden

[guava_wrench]

i just read the article, and it seemed to indicate that oden will be a free agent next summer. did i misread it?

if he is a free agent, why bother talking about trading perk or anyone else for him? just wait, see how he heals, and pay the market price.

Restricted free agent.

It all comes down to how much are you willing to pay for a guy who might not play. Any team will to pay a truckload of money can get him as Portland is unlikely to be willing to match for long years at big money.

If we sign him to big $$ and he doesn't pan out, the complaints will be overwhelming on this board. Far more than the complaints if we don't sign him and he becomes an all star.

I believe we would have to offer a 4 year minimum contract for Oden as an RFA with a qualifying offer. This means that Portland is in good shape to re-sign him for a single season as many teams will be afraid to commit to 4 seasons.

The problem with signing Oden is that it is obvious how fans will complain if he never become effective again. They will say "Ainge is an idiot. Why did he sign a guy who we already know can't stay on the floor".

[Roy H.]

i just read the article, and it seemed to indicate that oden will be a free agent next summer. did i misread it?

if he is a free agent, why bother talking about trading perk or anyone else for him? just wait, see how he heals, and pay the market price.

Restricted free agent.

It all comes down to how much are you willing to pay for a guy who might not play. Any team will to pay a truckload of money can get him as Portland is unlikely to be willing to match for long years at big money.

If we sign him to big $$ and he doesn't pan out, the complaints will be overwhelming on this board. Far more than the complaints if we don't sign him and he becomes an all star.

I believe we would have to offer a 4 year minimum contract for Oden as an RFA with a qualifying offer. This means that Portland is in good shape to re-sign him for a single season as many teams will be afraid to commit to 4 seasons.

The problem with signing Oden is that it is obvious how fans will complain if he never become effective again. They will say "Ainge is an idiot. Why did he sign a guy who we already know can't stay on the floor".

To make Oden a restricted free agent, the Blazers would have to offer him a $8.8 million qualifying offer.  For a guy who hasn't been healthy dating back to high school, and who has two blown out knees, that's a pretty hefty price tag.  Paul Allen might bite the bullet, but it's not a no-brainer, especially because no team in its right mind will offer Oden $9 million in free agency.

Regarding contracts offered by other teams, deals given to restricted free agents must be at least two years, I believe, rather than four.

[JHTruth]

I'd be stunned if Portland extended Oden the QO frankly. With the problems of Roy, the Blazers should probably start over. Reupping Oden could likely just compound the awful Roy extension. Add it to the looming lockout end financial uncertainty.

I'm thinking someone will sign Oden for the MLE next year, depending on the new labor deal..

[wdleehi]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. 


It is a one year deal to make sure he is in Portland if he gets healthy.




Though I think it is best for Oden to move on and get a fresh start.  Phoenix would be great because I think they have one of the best Med/training staffs. 

[cdif911]

again the sunk cost fallacy raises its ugly head - Portland should get away from Oden as quickly as possible, they've invested so much, no need to continue putting money into a clunker - go get a new car

if they can get anything in return for him, they should

[GreenEnvy]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. 


It is a one year deal to make sure he is in Portland if he gets healthy.




Though I think it is best for Oden to move on and get a fresh start.  Phoenix would be great because I think they have one of the best Med/training staffs. 

You only do that when you are underperforming or struggling with the system. Their appears to be none of that happening, just health related. Unless he (or you) think Portland is not handling his body correctly, that's another story. Or maybe it's just fate. He is jinxed in Portland.


I personally think it is just bad luck and Portland should give the QO. $8.8M isn't that much (doubt he takes it though, someone will take a chance and have a huge insurance policy on the new contract) considering all the money they already invested in him the last 4 seasons. Might as well cross their collective fingers that they will finally see a return on their investment.

[lon3lytoaster]

Could you imagine if we signed Oden and he magically became healthy?

Wow.. So much for losing out in 2007 if that happened. We would of ended up with Ray Allen, Glen Davis, KG from trades.

Then we add the best player we traded for Ray Allen (Except Jeff Green) in Delonte West and STILL manage to get Oden.

I'd sign him just to be able to say that.

[pearljammer10]

Portland management said they were going to pick up the option regardless of his health status. Some quotes thrown around were...

"On serious note, Blazers prez Larry Miller says he's not ready to give up on Greg Oden, plans to give him $8.8 million qualifying offer"

and

"He's only 22, he's got a long time left to prove himself here."

Both from hoopshype

[wdleehi]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. 


It is a one year deal to make sure he is in Portland if he gets healthy.




Though I think it is best for Oden to move on and get a fresh start.  Phoenix would be great because I think they have one of the best Med/training staffs. 

You only do that when you are underperforming or struggling with the system. Their appears to be none of that happening, just health related. Unless he (or you) think Portland is not handling his body correctly, that's another story. Or maybe it's just fate. He is jinxed in Portland.


I personally think it is just bad luck and Portland should give the QO. $8.8M isn't that much (doubt he takes it though, someone will take a chance and have a huge insurance policy on the new contract) considering all the money they already invested in him the last 4 seasons. Might as well cross their collective fingers that they will finally see a return on their investment.

Who knows.


Whatever is going on in Portland, it is not working. 

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Hard to trade Perk but Oden's potential is still intriguing. The thing is Oden is an RFA next year, why not try to just sign him for cheaper.

But going back to the trade, if Portland offers this + a 1st rounder, It's a deal.

[Moranis]

I wouldn't trade Perkins for him, but I would trade for him.  Though that means you'd have to include JO, Davis, or Robinson. 

I'd consider something like Oden and Fernandez for Robinson and filler.  Leaves the C's a little light at PG, but I do like Fernandez's potential and then you can control the rights to Oden. 

And really I think given both Perkins and Oden's injury histories, having both in split time would extend both their careers.  Not sure I'd want to do the Q.O. with Oden, but just extending the Q.O. doesn't mean you have to sign him for that, maybe you make the offer and then sign him up long term, something like 5 years, 35 million or 4 years 30 million with a team option on the fifth year.  Yeah it is a lot of money, but if you trade for him then you can control his rehab and will know how he is progressing and if it is really worth it.  Just waiting and signing him as a free agent, you don't have near the knowledge.  Also, I think there is a very good chance he ends up in Miami.  They need a center and they are the type of team that can take a flyer on him given the rest of their team.  I really don't want Oden in Miami or even worse on the Lakers.

[timepiece33]

I do wonder about Perkins's long term future here.   I doubt I would do it, but at the same time .. Fernandez is a better player than Daniels AND I do like Oden.

[Roy H.]

I do wonder about Perkins's long term future here.   I doubt I would do it, but at the same time .. Fernandez is a better player than Daniels AND I do like Oden.

Regarding Fernandez vs. Marquis, is Rudy better at guarding SFs than Marquis is?  We already have backup SG filled, so the ability to play SF is really all that matters.