Does Anyone Else find it odd that Smart is a much better shooter in losses?

[Ilikesports17]

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.

I think you have it backwards. It's not that him shooting more makes us worse, it's that when we are worse he has to shoot more.

His role has been forcefully expanded during injuries to crowder smart and Bradley.

[greece66]

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.

I think you have it backwards. It's not that him shooting more makes us worse, it's that when we are worse he has to shoot more.

His role has been forcefully expanded during injuries to crowder smart and Bradley.

Good points by IlikeSports17. Correlation does not imply causation should be in bold letters at the top of every thread using stats.

(As a sidenote, I do not see the problem with Smart averaging 11.2 FGs in losses, given that his FG% is at 40. And 5.1 of these shots are 3s which normally have a lower % anyway. I mean, getting a higher FG% with FGA is sthg he should be praised not criticized for)

Whatever was the cause of that pattern (assuming it wasn't just a coincidence), it stopped today. 7/10 FG, 3/3 FT and a W against NOP 

[LarBrd33]

We've seen significant improvement in the shooting efficiency of Avery, Thomas and Jae... They are all shooting career highs in FG% and 3P%.  I credit Horford's arrival with that.   I also don't think it's a coincidence that Smart is now averaging 12.5 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 1.7 steals with .448/.400/.813 shooting in his 6 games this season as a starting guard.   If the kid shares the court with our top players, offense will come easier and his efficiency is going to improve. 

[IDreamCeltics]

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.

I think you have it backwards. It's not that him shooting more makes us worse, it's that when we are worse he has to shoot more.

His role has been forcefully expanded during injuries to crowder smart and Bradley.

Good points by IlikeSports17. Correlation does not imply causation should be in bold letters at the top of every thread using stats.

(As a sidenote, I do not see the problem with Smart averaging 11.2 FGs in losses, given that his FG% is at 40. And 5.1 of these shots are 3s which normally have a lower % anyway. I mean, getting a higher FG% with FGA is sthg he should be praised not criticized for)

Whatever was the cause of that pattern (assuming it wasn't just a coincidence), it stopped today. 7/10 FG, 3/3 FT and a W against NOP 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-points-from-3-pointers

Yeah, as long as we can play the Pelicans or Sacramento (Ranked 29th and 30th respectively in Team Opponents Points scored by 3 pointers) every night he should be fine.

[bmac934]

I don't find it odd at all because every since his rookie year I've thought he's had a clutch factor (and this clutch factor is not in a small sample size, I've seen it for the past three years).  He does better when we need him too and as we are all aware he is a born winner.  Imo MS should be starting to take some of the ball handling and playmaking away from IT.  IT has a more than smooth enough jumper to play off the ball (and by play off the ball I don't mean make smart our primary offensive weapon by any means in any alternative universe).  It also puts a bigger guard next to our 5'9 star.  Then let AB do his thing off the bench.

[Ilikesports17]

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.

I think you have it backwards. It's not that him shooting more makes us worse, it's that when we are worse he has to shoot more.

His role has been forcefully expanded during injuries to crowder smart and Bradley.

Good points by IlikeSports17. Correlation does not imply causation should be in bold letters at the top of every thread using stats.

(As a sidenote, I do not see the problem with Smart averaging 11.2 FGs in losses, given that his FG% is at 40. And 5.1 of these shots are 3s which normally have a lower % anyway. I mean, getting a higher FG% with FGA is sthg he should be praised not criticized for)

Whatever was the cause of that pattern (assuming it wasn't just a coincidence), it stopped today. 7/10 FG, 3/3 FT and a W against NOP 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-points-from-3-pointers

Yeah, as long as we can play the Pelicans or Sacramento (Ranked 29th and 30th respectively in Team Opponents Points scored by 3 pointers) every night he should be fine.

Far more important than total points, the pelicans rank 11th in the league in opposing 3pt %. Opposing teams make 35.7% of 3 point attempts. Last night Marcus Smart made 83% including a 35 footer with the shot clock expiring.

There are plenty of legit ways to criticize Smart. This isn't one of them.

[IDreamCeltics]

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.

I think you have it backwards. It's not that him shooting more makes us worse, it's that when we are worse he has to shoot more.

His role has been forcefully expanded during injuries to crowder smart and Bradley.

Good points by IlikeSports17. Correlation does not imply causation should be in bold letters at the top of every thread using stats.

(As a sidenote, I do not see the problem with Smart averaging 11.2 FGs in losses, given that his FG% is at 40. And 5.1 of these shots are 3s which normally have a lower % anyway. I mean, getting a higher FG% with FGA is sthg he should be praised not criticized for)

Whatever was the cause of that pattern (assuming it wasn't just a coincidence), it stopped today. 7/10 FG, 3/3 FT and a W against NOP 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-points-from-3-pointers

Yeah, as long as we can play the Pelicans or Sacramento (Ranked 29th and 30th respectively in Team Opponents Points scored by 3 pointers) every night he should be fine.

Far more important than total points, the pelicans rank 11th in the league in opposing 3pt %. Opposing teams make 35.7% of 3 point attempts. Last night Marcus Smart made 83% including a 35 footer with the shot clock expiring.

There are plenty of legit ways to criticize Smart. This isn't one of them.

Thanks for bringing this up!  This is a common misconception and I think this could be very helpful for making more informed basketball fans!

One stat is not "far more important" than the other... they're related. 

The Pelican's aren't ranked 11th in the NBA in 3% against because they're a "good" team at defending the perimeter, they're ranked 11th in 3% against because of the sheer volume of threes teams are taking against them.  How many threes are teams attempting against them?

Opposing teams attempt a whopping 30.3 shots from 3-point land per game against the Pelicans.  The Pelican's are #1 in the NBA in 3 pointers attempted against this season.

While they may be "holding" opponents to 35.7% 3 point shooting, the league average for 3% is 35.8% this year so what you're seeing is a regression to the mean as teams attempt the highest number of threes against the Pelicans of any team in the NBA.   

It's not a coincidence that tonight as I write this Charlotte and Indiana are the #2 and #3 teams in volume of 3 pointers attempted against and both rank in the top ten in defensive 3%.

So while the casual fan might look at their 3% against and say, "Aha!  Those teams are GREAT at defending the three."  You can say now say, "No they're not, that's just how teams are choosing to attack them and those teams' shooting percentages are regressing to the mean."

[Vermont Green]

I don't buy this.  Too small a sample size.  It will revert to the mean meaning the percentages in wins and losses will start to trend towards the same values over time most likely.

I continue to like what I see from Marcus on the court with my eyes when I watch Smart play.  I think he is a really good player with a very promising future.  I don't think his shooting is as bad as it seems.  I have said this before that if he makes just one more shot per game on average, he would go from a bad shooter statistically to an efficient scorer.  That is not a leap, that is just a normal expected increment of development for a young player.  He has done that the last several games but let's see if he can keep it up.

Not all young players are able to achieve this type of normal development (or sustain it) and Smart may not but based on everything I see on the court, I think it is very likely he will achieve this development and more.  I remain very high on Marcus despite his currently sub-par shooting percentages.

[Ilikesports17]

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.

I think you have it backwards. It's not that him shooting more makes us worse, it's that when we are worse he has to shoot more.

His role has been forcefully expanded during injuries to crowder smart and Bradley.

Good points by IlikeSports17. Correlation does not imply causation should be in bold letters at the top of every thread using stats.

(As a sidenote, I do not see the problem with Smart averaging 11.2 FGs in losses, given that his FG% is at 40. And 5.1 of these shots are 3s which normally have a lower % anyway. I mean, getting a higher FG% with FGA is sthg he should be praised not criticized for)

Whatever was the cause of that pattern (assuming it wasn't just a coincidence), it stopped today. 7/10 FG, 3/3 FT and a W against NOP 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-points-from-3-pointers

Yeah, as long as we can play the Pelicans or Sacramento (Ranked 29th and 30th respectively in Team Opponents Points scored by 3 pointers) every night he should be fine.

Far more important than total points, the pelicans rank 11th in the league in opposing 3pt %. Opposing teams make 35.7% of 3 point attempts. Last night Marcus Smart made 83% including a 35 footer with the shot clock expiring.

There are plenty of legit ways to criticize Smart. This isn't one of them.

Thanks for bringing this up!  This is a common misconception and I think this could be very helpful for making more informed basketball fans!

One stat is not "far more important" than the other... they're related. 

The Pelican's aren't ranked 11th in the NBA in 3% against because they're a "good" team at defending the perimeter, they're ranked 11th in 3% against because of the sheer volume of threes teams are taking against them.  How many threes are teams attempting against them?

Opposing teams attempt a whopping 30.3 shots from 3-point land per game against the Pelicans.  The Pelican's are #1 in the NBA in 3 pointers attempted against this season.

While they may be "holding" opponents to 35.7% 3 point shooting, the league average for 3% is 35.8% this year so what you're seeing is a regression to the mean as teams attempt the highest number of threes against the Pelicans of any team in the NBA.   

It's not a coincidence that tonight as I write this Charlotte and Indiana are the #2 and #3 teams in volume of 3 pointers attempted against and both rank in the top ten in defensive 3%.

So while the casual fan might look at their 3% against and say, "Aha!  Those teams are GREAT at defending the three."  You can say now say, "No they're not, that's just how teams are choosing to attack them and those teams' shooting percentages are regressing to the mean."

replied to you in the other thread. I hope you reply, if I write like an Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline., thats not the intetnion I love discussing basketball and statistics and stuff like that. you bring up some really good points. I still think Im right (Im sure you do to) but I think there are some things you havent considered yet!

[danglertx]

I think teams take a lot of threes against the Pelicans because AD is down there waiting to block their shots inside.  Is Kelly going to take a shot at the rim against AD or kick it out for three?

[IDreamCeltics]

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.

I think you have it backwards. It's not that him shooting more makes us worse, it's that when we are worse he has to shoot more.

His role has been forcefully expanded during injuries to crowder smart and Bradley.

Good points by IlikeSports17. Correlation does not imply causation should be in bold letters at the top of every thread using stats.

(As a sidenote, I do not see the problem with Smart averaging 11.2 FGs in losses, given that his FG% is at 40. And 5.1 of these shots are 3s which normally have a lower % anyway. I mean, getting a higher FG% with FGA is sthg he should be praised not criticized for)

Whatever was the cause of that pattern (assuming it wasn't just a coincidence), it stopped today. 7/10 FG, 3/3 FT and a W against NOP 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-points-from-3-pointers

Yeah, as long as we can play the Pelicans or Sacramento (Ranked 29th and 30th respectively in Team Opponents Points scored by 3 pointers) every night he should be fine.

Far more important than total points, the pelicans rank 11th in the league in opposing 3pt %. Opposing teams make 35.7% of 3 point attempts. Last night Marcus Smart made 83% including a 35 footer with the shot clock expiring.

There are plenty of legit ways to criticize Smart. This isn't one of them.

Thanks for bringing this up!  This is a common misconception and I think this could be very helpful for making more informed basketball fans!

One stat is not "far more important" than the other... they're related. 

The Pelican's aren't ranked 11th in the NBA in 3% against because they're a "good" team at defending the perimeter, they're ranked 11th in 3% against because of the sheer volume of threes teams are taking against them.  How many threes are teams attempting against them?

Opposing teams attempt a whopping 30.3 shots from 3-point land per game against the Pelicans.  The Pelican's are #1 in the NBA in 3 pointers attempted against this season.

While they may be "holding" opponents to 35.7% 3 point shooting, the league average for 3% is 35.8% this year so what you're seeing is a regression to the mean as teams attempt the highest number of threes against the Pelicans of any team in the NBA.   

It's not a coincidence that tonight as I write this Charlotte and Indiana are the #2 and #3 teams in volume of 3 pointers attempted against and both rank in the top ten in defensive 3%.

So while the casual fan might look at their 3% against and say, "Aha!  Those teams are GREAT at defending the three."  You can say now say, "No they're not, that's just how teams are choosing to attack them and those teams' shooting percentages are regressing to the mean."

replied to you in the other thread. I hope you reply, if I write like an ****, thats not the intetnion I love discussing basketball and statistics and stuff like that. you bring up some really good points. I still think Im right (Im sure you do to) but I think there are some things you havent considered yet!

Ok!  No worries!  Thanks for replying I'll reply in the other thread!