Author Topic: Does Anyone Else find it odd that Smart is a much better shooter in losses?  (Read 4406 times)

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Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

Offline HomerSapien

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Without thinking about this too much, I think it might say that Isaiah Thomas was hurt for many of those losses and Marcus had to score more. I'm not reading too much into it.

Offline saltlover

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It probably says small sample size.  Last year he was a better shooter when the team won, and the year before he was pretty much the same both regardless of outcome.

Offline GreenWarrior

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this means nothing.

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Fair enough. I'll continue to monitor it, but it probably is just a small sample size.

Offline greece66

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as mentioned earlier, small sample size.

2-3 games where smart's shooting does not follow this pattern, and these metrics will look different.

Offline straightouttabahstun

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He shot pretty well in the playoffs last year, especially in the games we won.

Offline droopdog7

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To be fair, a win means the team in general played better.  So on average, wouldn't each player play better in wins?  How do smarts splits compare to any other of our players?

Offline Neurotic Guy

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I find it more odd that Smart is something like 42 of his last 45 from the FT line.   That's >93%.

EDIT: After seeing the other thread, I guess I over-stated a little -- was going on the graphic I thought I saw last night during the game.   But same point -- 31 of 33 is pretty impressive.   Trend or anomaly?
« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 05:24:24 PM by Neurotic Guy »

Offline LarBrd33

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Without thinking about this too much, I think it might say that Isaiah Thomas was hurt for many of those losses and Marcus had to score more. I'm not reading too much into it.
Also without thinking about this too much, he has shot 39%/30% as a starter and 35%/29% in games he came off the bench.  Slight uptick might be the result of sharing more court time with with better players commanding more attention.

Offline Chris22

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I find it more odd that Smart is something like 42 of his last 45 from the FT line.   That's >93%.

EDIT: After seeing the other thread, I guess I over-stated a little -- was going on the graphic I thought I saw last night during the game.   But same point -- 31 of 33 is pretty impressive.   Trend or anomaly?

Smart was shooting his free throws too fast. He slowed down, and now he makes them.

Offline tenn_smoothie

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I notice that Smart, sorta like DJ #3, can have a bad shooting nite and then bury a clutch 3-pointer in the last 2 minutes. He just appears to be that type of player - he does a lot of things to help his team win whether his stat line is pretty or not. He is the type of player that helps teams win titles. I hope we value him and hold on to him.
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Offline IDreamCeltics

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http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.

Offline Ilikesports17

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http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.
Correlation =/= causation

Offline IDreamCeltics

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http://www.espn.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

By Result   GP   MIN   FGM-FGA   FG%   3PM-3PA   3P%   FTM-FTA   FT%   OR   DR   REB   AST   BLK   STL   PF   TO   PTS

In wins   20   29.4   2.6-7.8   .327   0.9-3.4   .250   2.2-2.8   .768   0.7   3.4   4.1   4.6   0.5   1.3   2.2   2.1   8.1

In losses   13   30.5   4.5-11.2   .400   1.7-5.1   .333   1.4-2.0   .692   1.2   2.2   3.3   4.0   0.2   1.2   2.5   1.5   12.0

Sorry don't know how to organize this better. He is a 33% shooter in wins, but he is a 40% shooter in losses. His 3 percentage jump 8% from 25 to 33. His points go up 4 ppg. His TO go down .6.

Does this speak to his psyche a little bit? When the game is tight and our team is not playing up to its competition, he takes the challenge and plays better, but when the team is competing and playing well, he plays looser and less focused?

What else could this say?

The most interesting stat to me is that he attempts 7.8 FG in wins and 11.2 FG in losses, the more he shoots the worse off the team is.
Correlation =/= causation

Eh, you don't need a PhD in statistics to know that letting a historically bad offensive player take double digit shots is going to be bad for your winning percentage.