We have missed on two of our last three first round picks.

[Fafnir]

You'd take Biedrins/Childress ahead of Allen?

Yep.  I know Biedrins has tailed off, but he was basically a double double center for 3 years.  That has a lot more value and worth than a defensive guard.

Childress is a bit closer obviously as he left for Europe and has been pretty poor since he got back, but he was also much better than Allen at the start of their careers.  Pretty interesting question actually. 

In another year or two if they keep trending like they are, I'd take Allen over either, but at this point, I'm taking the guys with the higher peaks.

If you're just looking at rookie contract early production then you have West way too low.

You seem to be taking it both ways. I see no way to value Childress who was always a meh player okay at most things but not good at anything over an elite role player.

Biedrins got numbers but never developed and actively got way worse after two years.

I just don't see it. Either in short term rookie deal production terms or longer term prospect thinking.

[Moranis]

Melo was high risk and high reward.   Any draft pick is a gamble.   I still think Ainge has found players in the draft for where he has drafted.

There is something to recognizing that if part of Danny's 'big wins' come from a high risk/high reward strategy, he is likely to have more busts than if he simply drafts safely.

I guess the question is how much risk and how much reward is there with Melo.  I just see him as way too much risk for not nearly enough reward and always have.  Now maybe he proves me wrong and develops, but I just don't see it.

[Moranis]

You'd take Biedrins/Childress ahead of Allen?

Yep.  I know Biedrins has tailed off, but he was basically a double double center for 3 years.  That has a lot more value and worth than a defensive guard.

Childress is a bit closer obviously as he left for Europe and has been pretty poor since he got back, but he was also much better than Allen at the start of their careers.  Pretty interesting question actually. 

In another year or two if they keep trending like they are, I'd take Allen over either, but at this point, I'm taking the guys with the higher peaks.

If you're just looking at rookie contract early production then you have West way too low.

You seem to be taking it both ways. I see no way to value Childress who was always a meh player okay at most things but not good at anything over an elite role player.

Biedrins got numbers but never developed and actively got way worse after two years.

I just don't see it. Either in short term rookie deal production terms or longer term prospect thinking.

Biedrins best season was his 5th year in the league when was better than 11/11 though that was the first year he got hurt and he was never healthy again.

West's best season was 12.2 p, 4.4 a, 3 r in his third year.  I'd take any of Childress' first four seasons over that season from West, though a couple are debatable.  West was quite simply over-hyped when he was here and then he just went crazy in the head and his game was never the same.