Author Topic: The Transition  (Read 1725 times)

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The Transition
« on: March 29, 2012, 12:14:13 PM »

Offline birdwatcher

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My faith has ebbed and flowed admittedly all season long. As I watch this team grind it out for the last third of the season, I have become more optimistic for the future. Don't get me wrong, I don't feel we have what it takes to do much more than make it to the conference finals this year, and I don't expect 18 next year either. But I do feel more confident that we are not going to swirl into purgatory for another 10+ years like we have in the past.

We have cap space, but not a ton of free agents to spend it on, at least not worthy of max deals. We have a "problem" getting people to come to Boston. Our best players are almost old enough to be Avery Bradley's daddy. The good news is, we don't need 2 max players to be a competitive team whose success could lure Free Agents in 2013 and beyond to help put us over the hump.

Next year we have a solid team nucleus of Rondo, Pierce, Bradley and a couple rookies. We bring back KG to play C on a 2 yr deal. We sign Jeff Green again, and bring back Wilcox. We retain Bass & Pietrus. We draft some size and a SG with our 2 1st round picks. We troll the FA pool for a serviceable PG. We let Ray walk. We free up some dead weight (Daniels, Sasha, Dooling). We keep The Stiegma. Then we have a full off season and training camp. We play hard. We stay healthy and we're already better then we are this season. Injuries, limited practices and the fact that half the team was out of shape to start the season probably cost us the difference between the 7th spot and the 3rd spot in the East.

Maybe I'm back in Homer mode, but suddenly after the last few weeks, the future doesn't seem so crappy anymore.

Re: The Transition
« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2012, 12:32:11 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Next year we have a solid team nucleus of Rondo, Pierce, Bradley and a couple rookies. We bring back KG to play C on a 2 yr deal. We sign Jeff Green again, and bring back Wilcox. We retain Bass & Pietrus. We draft some size and a SG with our 2 1st round picks. We troll the FA pool for a serviceable PG. We let Ray walk. We free up some dead weight (Daniels, Sasha, Dooling). We keep The Stiegma. Then we have a full off season and training camp. We play hard. We stay healthy and we're already better then we are this season. Injuries, limited practices and the fact that half the team was out of shape to start the season probably cost us the difference between the 7th spot and the 3rd spot in the East.
This has been pretty much what I think Danny will end up doing more or less. 

I could see KG coming back but that if Danny gets a legit starting center.  Dwight's out but there will be others that can play and defend the position.  KG isn't a fan of playing center so I think that would play into his signing decision.

Depending on how Ray is feeling about his future, I wouldn't be surprised if he took a one year deal.  If Bradley continues to look good, have him start with Rondo and bring Ray off the bench for offense.  Depends on whether Ray would do that.

I wouldn't go longer than a year with either KG or Ray since the 2013 FA market will have more players to choose from and JJJ, Bradley, Moore and next year's rookies should be ready to step into those roles.

If financially feasible, I'd resign Bass, Green, Pietrus, Steimsma and possibly Wilcox.  (Actually, I'd ideally need only one of Ray or Pietrus-->I like Pietrus' defense and versatility better than Ray's but Ray is the superior shooter)

Roster:
Rondo, Bradley, PP, KG, FA Center
Bass, Green, Pietrus/Ray, Moore, JJJ, Wilcox, Steimsma, 1st rounder #1, 1st rounder #2, 2nd Rounder.  15 players.

That's a pretty solid roster depending on who's starting at center.  (no, not Ryan Hollins either)

Better yet, if JJJ has developed to where he can take Bass' spot, that's even better financially (and would allow us to keep Milwaukee's 2nd rounder if we get it this year).  Pietrus over Ray is better financially too.

Re: The Transition
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2012, 12:41:11 PM »

Offline MVP

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For the FA center the guy I would keep my eye on is Omer Asik. He's not as talked about as the other centers that will be available like McGee and Hibbert, but I think he would be a great fit. Asik is primed for a breakout year given the opportunity and minutes. He would go a long way to shoring up our rebounding woes (12.6 per 36 this year) and he is arguably the second best defensive center in the league behind Howard already. Plus he is turning 26 and this is his 2nd year in the league so he has room to improve.

Not sure how much it would take to sign him. Doubt Chicago would go high enough to match since they are already paying a lot for Rose, Deng, Boozer and Noah. Not sure what other teams with cap room will have interest.

Re: The Transition
« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2012, 01:03:57 PM »

Offline ManUp

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How I feel about the transition will depend entirely on what is done this off season. IMO, we are going into free-agency with a clean slate. We've got a young star locked in for three more years, two first round picks in a loaded draft, some cap room and some solid young free-agents (Green, Bass, Stiemsa) that are probably willing to resign. That's a pretty good place to be in when your rebuilding, this team can go anywhere we want to take it. It's all on Danny to pick a route and make the right decisions regarding picks signings and trades.

Re: The Transition
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2012, 01:11:46 PM »

Offline paintitgreen

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I like Asik too, good call. But I think the entire offseason plan will hinge on what they get in the draft. While I'd love to get a center, I think the Celtics need to take the best players available, regardless of position. (I would count out a point guard with their first round picks, but there's not a lot of point guard talent in this draft, so those guys will probably go higher than they should, meaning it is highly unlikely a point guard will be the best player available.) If they end up picking a small forward, they have to look at different options for Green - his problem in his career has been when people try to use him at power forward. He's a wing player. So if you have Pierce and a rookie there, they may have to look at a sign and trade of Green to get some sort of assets back. If they pick a power forward who can't play center, they have to look at letting Bass walk, a sign and trade, or working out a trade if he takes his $4.25 mil player option (a possibility). I also don't see bringing back both Bass and Wilcox. I'm not sure, but by waiving Wilcox, haven't they lost the right to bring him back for up to $3.135 million without using cap space? I just don't think they can have two non-starting caliber power forwards on the roster who struggle with rebounding, at least not while there are still so many holes in the starting lineup.

The one free agent I definitely want to see them keep is KG. Garnett is still playing at an incredibly high level and is an all time player. Personally, I'd love to see him retire a Celtic, but that's not guiding my decision. I think he also serves an incredibly valuable mentoring role. Look at what he has done in the last 5 years with Perk, Baby, even Stiemsma and Bass, who has been a way better defender than at any other time in his career. Playing with KG does that for you. I want him here particularly if the Celtics pick a big in the draft.

My other thing - I like Avery Bradley but I don't know about putting him as a starting two on this team. He could absolutely be a starting caliber two guard in the not too distant future, but I worry about him next to a 6'1" point guard who can't shoot. Bradley's shot is improving but it's far from "good." I think Bradley has a nice career ahead of him as a perimeter defender off the bench but due to his size and okay but not great shot, I think he needs to improve his ballhandling drastically to become an impact player, the kind you can put in the starting lineup. Of course, if he does become an efficient shooter with three point range, the equation changes.

I'm pretty indifferent between Pietrus or Ray to start at the two next year. Pietrus is younger with better defense. Ray has a shot that can't be matched, and you don't have to use cap space or an exception to sign him, as you do for Pietrus. And if they don't get a player in the draft who can give you 15-plus minutes a night at center, I think they need that cap space or the exception to go after a free agent who can - Asik would be ideal since Chicago may not match a four year, $22 million offer - more if you're letting other guys walk, or maybe a veteran like Nazr Mohammed on a short term, lower money deal. Frankly, I'd like to see Pierce drop about 10-15 pounds to play the 2 for the next 2 years, and put Green at the 3. But I don't think that's realistic.

So I think it comes down in the end to what we draft, and to whether Doc thinks as of late June that Johnson has any role in the rotation next season and/or that Bradley can start at the 2. That guides your decisions on Ray, Pietrus, Bass and Green.
Go Celtics.