Who Will the Red Sox Target for 08/09 FA? Who Will They Trade?

[nickagneta]

Pap i promise you will get a hefty raise if he utilizes arb. He is one of the best closers in the league and shut down in the playoffs.

Ryan Howard got a ridicoulus arb judgement favouring him and that could happen with pap.

He has been durable, he is still young and fearless. 3 Years 25 million right now would give everyone a peace of mind. (the longer the arb process goes imo relationships sour up)

He absolutely will get a hefty raise.  But it will be gradual.  My guess is if he continues the way he is going, he will get something like $5 million, then $6 million, then $7.5 million. 

Besides, the Sox have a policy that they will not sign an extension to a young guy, unless they are able to buy at least a year of Free Agency.  So it would have to be a 4 year deal.  And they are not going to do that with Paps.

Chris i guess they won't but arb is not a pretty process. You can't also badmouth on paps performance much. Only things you could prob state is that closers lifeline is short, injuries occur etc.

IF i were pap i wouldn't be too pleased right now with pedroia and youk getting long term deals.

you can't say a closer role is not as important as any other roles. (two words eric gagne)

You just aren't getting this are you?

Arbitration is a numbers produced compared to similar players at a similar time in their development and what those players were making at that time. The best comparison is K Rod and K Rod in his first arbitration year had slightly better numbers than Papelbon and got about $3.5 million. After that K Rod in his last two arbitration years put up +45 saves and ERA's hovering around 2.00. He got $7 and $10 million for those years.

The Red Sox don't have to be insulting or mean spirited or nasty or anything else that is patently negative to defend their position. All they have to point to are K Rod's numbers, what he got in those years and how Papelbon's number compare to them. If they aren't as good Papelbon probably shouldn't expect more than them.

Arbitration doesn't compared Papelbon to the best closers in the game regardless of age, determine where he fits in with that entire group and award as such. Papelbon isn't going to get big numbers through arbitration because he is one of the best in the game. He is going to get what closers after three year's with similar numbers to his got in their fourth year. That number is significantly smaller.

I think both sides know this and are okay with this and for this reason I don't see animosity setting in in these procedures. From what I am told both sides have open communications with each other and are very amicable with Papelbon loving Boston, his coaches, and his team mates.

This will not be one of those contentious arbitrations if they even get that far. I would expect a mutual agreement before it even gets to that stage.