I guess we aren't better without Jaylen!

[Moranis]

Moranis is doubling and tripling down on yet another bad take. I’m guessing he won’t come back and say he was wrong, like when he said the Pats were a 6 win team “at best”.

Stay classy, Moranis!

I obviously underestimated the Jets ability to split the season series and didn't expect the Dolphins to be down to a 3rd string QB (or the Cardinals to lose Murray after 1 pass attempt), but my analysis on the quality of the Patriots was pretty much spot on.  I said they were a poorly coached offense, with a terrible pass catching group, a below average QB, that had solid but unspectacular RB's.  I acknowledged they had a very good defense, but that it wasn't going to be good enough to contain the much better offenses they played at the end of the year and that their offense would fail them and they'd be outscored and lose.  Too much focus in that thread on my incorrect over/under prediction and not enough on the actual analysis because the actual analysis was 100% spot on. 

[celticsclay]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

We've addressed this year's record, with the 6-0 record without JB when we play the worst teams in the league.

Let's look at the last three seasons before that.

2020:  10-5 (six games against opponents with below .350 winning percentage)

2021: 6-8; 1-4 in playoffs

2022: 8-8

So, over that three year span, without considering strength of opponents, we went 25-25 without JB.

Is that your argument?  That JB doesn't contribute to winning, because his team managed to go .500 without him in years in which we went to the playoffs, including the Finals and ECF?

How about context of last year, Brown missed 14 of the first 27 games, Boston was 7-7 without him (10 of which were on the road and included a 5-game west trip) and 6-7 with him?  Or does only the context you find appropriate count?

And of those 7 games we won without JB, 5 of them were against non-playoff teams, including the illustrious Rockets, Thunder, Trailblazers and Lakers (all bottom-8 teams).

Calling it a 5 game west coast trip in omitting it was all lottery teams is a textbook example of the spin cycle. I wish this would just stop at this point. It’s a terrible take that has been given too much oxygen.

[celticsclay]

Moranis is doubling and tripling down on yet another bad take. I’m guessing he won’t come back and say he was wrong, like when he said the Pats were a 6 win team “at best”.

Stay classy, Moranis!

I obviously underestimated the Jets ability to split the season series and didn't expect the Dolphins to be down to a 3rd string QB (or the Cardinals to lose Murray after 1 pass attempt), but my analysis on the quality of the Patriots was pretty much spot on.  I said they were a poorly coached offense, with a terrible pass catching group, a below average QB, that had solid but unspectacular RB's.  I acknowledged they had a very good defense, but that it wasn't going to be good enough to contain the much better offenses they played at the end of the year and that their offense would fail them and they'd be outscored and lose.  Too much focus in that thread on my incorrect over/under prediction and not enough on the actual analysis because the actual analysis was 100% spot on.

Come on man. You had it wrong. The world doesn’t explode if you admit it. “I was right even though I was wrong” is about the worst response I can imagine.

[Moranis]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

We've addressed this year's record, with the 6-0 record without JB when we play the worst teams in the league.

Let's look at the last three seasons before that.

2020:  10-5 (six games against opponents with below .350 winning percentage)

2021: 6-8; 1-4 in playoffs

2022: 8-8

So, over that three year span, without considering strength of opponents, we went 25-25 without JB.

Is that your argument?  That JB doesn't contribute to winning, because his team managed to go .500 without him in years in which we went to the playoffs, including the Finals and ECF?

How about context of last year, Brown missed 14 of the first 27 games, Boston was 7-7 without him (10 of which were on the road and included a 5-game west trip) and 6-7 with him?  Or does only the context you find appropriate count?

And of those 7 games we won without JB, 5 of them were against non-playoff teams, including the illustrious Rockets, Thunder, Trailblazers and Lakers (all bottom-8 teams).

The Lakers were 13-12 after the 2nd game they played last year.  The teams split them.  The C's won at home by 22 and lost in LA by 15.  Brown didn't play in either one, though Tatum, Lebron, and Davis did play in both.  Portland was 11-13 after that game, they fell off after Lillard went down to injury (though Lillard did not play in that game so not much of a win).  The Portland game and the loss to the Lakers was in the middle of the 5 game road trip that started in Utah and then ended with the Clippers and Suns.  The only game Boston won on that trip was the Portland game. 

[liam]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

We've addressed this year's record, with the 6-0 record without JB when we play the worst teams in the league.

Let's look at the last three seasons before that.

2020:  10-5 (six games against opponents with below .350 winning percentage)

2021: 6-8; 1-4 in playoffs

2022: 8-8

So, over that three year span, without considering strength of opponents, we went 25-25 without JB.

Is that your argument?  That JB doesn't contribute to winning, because his team managed to go .500 without him in years in which we went to the playoffs, including the Finals and ECF?

How about context of last year, Brown missed 14 of the first 27 games, Boston was 7-7 without him (10 of which were on the road and included a 5-game west trip) and 6-7 with him?  Or does only the context you find appropriate count?

And of those 7 games we won without JB, 5 of them were against non-playoff teams, including the illustrious Rockets, Thunder, Trailblazers and Lakers (all bottom-8 teams).

The Lakers were 13-12 after the 2nd game they played last year.  The teams split them.  The C's won at home by 22 and lost in LA by 15.  Brown didn't play in either one, though Tatum, Lebron, and Davis did play in both.  Portland was 11-13 after that game, they fell off after Lillard went down to injury (though Lillard did not play in that game so not much of a win).  The Portland game and the loss to the Lakers was in the middle of the 5 game road trip that started in Utah and then ended with the Clippers and Suns.  The only game Boston won on that trip was the Portland game.

You are really bending yourself into a pretzel trying to maintain this argument.

[Kernewek]

The argument is pretty consistent, regardless of whether you agree with it or not.

[Kernewek]

I am 100% on the side of keep Jaylen if he wants to be here. Lock him up at whatever number he'd accept to stay with Tatum. There is nothing left for them to prove that they are a successful pairing, and one that can lead a team to a championship.

But lets not misrepresent the other side.

It's not a question of does a Tatum lead team play better without Jaylen on the court but rather would there be another player or players that could would work better with Tatum for Jaylen's trade value and salary slot. DeArron Fox, Trae Young, Karl Anthony Towns, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zion Williamson, maybe even Joel Embiid if Harden leaves and he forces his way out? The most interesting one in recent memory was Kevin Durant but now that's over. Are there players that could either be acquired for Jaylen in a trade that would be a better fit for a Jayson Tatum lead team.

Again, to me the answer is JKJB, but it's not like we'd be losing him for nothing if the team chose to break them up.

Why even bother with a reasonable take like this one, though?

Ha.  Time will tell if it's a reasonable take, though.  First, there's the presumption that it would be the team choosing the breaking up.  Second, there's the presumption that teams don't lose star players without some compensation in return.  As we've seen in recent years, neither of those things are a safe presumption.

This, though, is pretty interesting. Is the team worse if Jaylen walks in FA? 100%

Is the team worse if Brown says he won’t resign and he’s traded for players who may be a better fit around Tatum? Probably not.

[celticsclay]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

We've addressed this year's record, with the 6-0 record without JB when we play the worst teams in the league.

Let's look at the last three seasons before that.

2020:  10-5 (six games against opponents with below .350 winning percentage)

2021: 6-8; 1-4 in playoffs

2022: 8-8

So, over that three year span, without considering strength of opponents, we went 25-25 without JB.

Is that your argument?  That JB doesn't contribute to winning, because his team managed to go .500 without him in years in which we went to the playoffs, including the Finals and ECF?

How about context of last year, Brown missed 14 of the first 27 games, Boston was 7-7 without him (10 of which were on the road and included a 5-game west trip) and 6-7 with him?  Or does only the context you find appropriate count?

And of those 7 games we won without JB, 5 of them were against non-playoff teams, including the illustrious Rockets, Thunder, Trailblazers and Lakers (all bottom-8 teams).

The Lakers were 13-12 after the 2nd game they played last year.  The teams split them.  The C's won at home by 22 and lost in LA by 15.  Brown didn't play in either one, though Tatum, Lebron, and Davis did play in both.  Portland was 11-13 after that game, they fell off after Lillard went down to injury (though Lillard did not play in that game so not much of a win).  The Portland game and the loss to the Lakers was in the middle of the 5 game road trip that started in Utah and then ended with the Clippers and Suns.  The only game Boston won on that trip was the Portland game.

You are really bending yourself into a pretzel trying to maintain this argument.

Moranis is a master of “if you ignore three out of the ten games that don’t fit into this stat I am arguing, I am correct”