Minutes per game by the numbers

[KG Living Legend]

 I'm going off memory here out at a bar.  Forgive me if I'm pressing the issues here,  but a deep roster has me excited for the minutes battle.  This is the top 7 of the celtics rotation actual mpg as of last year.

Tatum-36
Brown-35
Smart-32
Dennis-32
Richardson-30
Horford-22.    EDIT 28 MPG FOR HORFORD
Timelord-19


 Adds that up and it's 206 out of 240 per night. Is that right.  For the purpose of this thread let's say 200 minutes combined for the top 7.

 So we are full strength and we are playing the top seven 200 minutes in a game.  How would you split up the remaining 40 minutes 🤔

 Tp's for interesting answers

[theswitch]

This won't be an interesting answer but I'm taking the remaining 28 minutes (adjusting for your Horford edit) and giving them to Pritchard and Nesmith, somewhere around evenly unless one of them is hot that night or there's a defensive reason for one over the other.

There's a world where we give 12 minutes to G. Williams at the 4 or go big with Horford at the 4, but I'd prefer to avoid both of those situations.

[KG Living Legend]

This won't be an interesting answer but I'm taking the remaining 28 minutes (adjusting for your Horford edit) and giving them to Pritchard and Nesmith, somewhere around evenly unless one of them is hot that night or there's a defensive reason for one over the other.

There's a world where we give 12 minutes to G. Williams at the 4 or go big with Horford at the 4, but I'd prefer to avoid both of those situations.

 Plus one. In reality I think Timelord will play bigger minutes than Al. Timelord is our secret weapon.  Celtics were holding him back.

 Now it's operation Unleash Timelord.  Master of the universe. He will play 28 mpg. Dude shoots what 72% from the floor?

 Bob. Please get that 15 foot jumpshot down.  Sky is the limit for the kid. So talented passing it. Please stay healthy Bob.

 

[Celtics4ever]

There's a world where we give 12 minutes to G. Williams at the 4 or go big with Horford at the 4, but I'd prefer to avoid both of those situations.

Hopefully, Juancho will end that world, because it does not make much basketball sense.  That is 12 minutes of no rebounding, no rim protection and porous defense in that world.  Juancho might still have the porous D, be he can board and probably at 6'9" and he can jump over a phone book so that might help with rim protection.  I am with you.

Of course, it is all about matchups and GWill matches up well against 2 players Bam and Joker and that is about it.  I could see playing him there.

[bdm860]

One thing that will be interesting to see is how Udoka handles minutes/rotations.

Does he play stars big minutes, does he want to bring a scorer off the bench, does he stagger minutes so one of Tatum/Brown are always in the game?  How willing is he to tinker with lineups? Does he scrap regular rotations when things aren't working.  Does he like big lineups or small lineups?

Stevens, I thought, was always a low minute guy.  For most of Stevens stretch as coach, the top guy only played 32-33mpg.

[Vermont Green]

I'm going off memory here out at a bar.  Forgive me if I'm pressing the issues here,  but a deep roster has me excited for the minutes battle.  This is the top 7 of the celtics rotation actual mpg as of last year.

Tatum-36
Brown-35
Smart-32
Dennis-32
Richardson-30
Horford-28.    EDIT 28 MPG FOR HORFORD
Timelord-19


 Adds that up and it's 206 out of 240 per night. Is that right.  For the purpose of this thread let's say 200 minutes combined for the top 7.

 So we are full strength and we are playing the top seven 200 minutes in a game.  How would you split up the remaining 40 minutes 🤔

 Tp's for interesting answers

If you adjust the Horford number, the new total is 212, leaving 28 minutes as someone else pointed out.  Horford and RWilliams will be about 48 minutes combined so I am not going to worry about the exact split in this exercise.  Kanter will cover when there is injury or foul trouble.  I expect Pritchard to get around 16 minutes in the regular rotation so that brings it to a total of 228, leaving 12 minutes.  That doesn't leave much.

I think the reality will be that minutes will go down for Richardson, Schroeder, and Smart and a little bit for Brown and Tatum.  Maybe this core group will end up taking something more in the range of 200 minutes, leaving 40 minutes for others.

I see our PF by committee (Parker, GWill, Hernangomez) playing 24-32 minutes.  It is a little sad that there is so little talent in this group but I anticipate that being the reality.  I expect a different combination on any given night based on match ups.  That leave up to 16 minutes for Nesmith and Langford.

It is good that we have depth and redundancy but it is also going to mean that someone doesn't play as much as they want.  I see some possible tension in the Smart, Schroder, Richardson, Pritchard group.  They all deserve to play but there just aren't enough minutes for all of them.

[Moranis]

Nesmith will get in the 15-20 range and a PF will get most of the rest. 

[rogueandpoet]

I think we will find that Romeo is near as good a defender as Richardson and possibly as good or better on the offensive side. To me Schoders value is as a trade chip. He'll get minutes early but at some point he's gone. Richardson also looks best as trade bait if Nesmith starts shooting lights out. Jauncho is trade bait too. Parker too if anyone wants him. There is a good power forward to be found with this level of talent up for grabs. Emphasis on "power". I suspect many more minutes for the first rounders as Ime called them.

[Celtics4ever]

I think we will find that Romeo is near as good a defender as Richardson and possibly as good or better on the offensive side.

Man, give some of that stuff your smoking, JK

As good on offense,  C'mon, that is not based on past play or statistical data, what makes you think that?

[JBcat]

One thing these type of exercises don’t account for is extra minutes due to games missed because of injuries which always happens. 

I went back 2 seasons ago to the 2019-20 season which we didn’t have any roster turnover during the 72 games which makes it easier for this exercise(last season was such a mess), and added up the total average minutes of each player.  I came up 320.6 which is much higher than the 240 if nobody misses any games.

For our major core players that season out of the 72 games Hayward missed 20, Tatum 6, Brown 15, Walker 16, Smart 12, Theis 7, Wanamaker 1, and Kanter 14. R Williams only played 29 games.  Looking at the games missed I would say this is somewhat the norm for most teams.

For this upcoming 82 game season let’s say we are healthier, and cut the total average of minutes above 240 in half so we are at 280.  That’s still plenty of chances for the likes of Kanter, Parker, Hernanngomez, Nesmith, Langford, and Pritchard to get some extra run.

[Big333223]

In reality I think Timelord will play bigger minutes than Al. Timelord is our secret weapon.  Celtics were holding him back.

Yeah, I think if Timelord is healthy, he's definitely played bigger minutes than Al.

The best stretch of basketball they played last year was when Timelord stepped into the starting lineup. His passing and finishing around the rim make the offense hum and his best attributes are his defense.

I think Horford is going to look old this season and play around 20 solid minutes a night.