Two teams I am trying to get a grip on are Charlotte and Chicago. Are they legit play-in hopefuls? Or are they not? Are they better than Boston? Or worse than Boston?

Chicago

G: Ayon Dosunma, Tre Jones, Jevon Carter
G: Coby White, K Huerter
F: Josh Giddey, I Okoro
F: Matas Buzelis, Pat Williams
C: N Vucevic, Zach Collins

I liked this team in the close of last season. They had a lot of quick ball-handling players and a bunch of 3 point shooters. They were tough to matchup with. But they got rid of Lonzo Ball. Lonzo was the only non-guard other than Giddey who could play this style. Now other than Giddey they have a very little ball-handling or passing at the forward slots.

Lonzo gave them an advantage. His size and ability to shift up a position to forward allowed them to keep all those small guards on the floor while also creating that offensive advantage in quickness, ball-handling, passing.

They just look worse without him.

I am not buying Chicago. I am going to put them 13th and rule them out as a play-in contender. Boston should finish ahead of these guys.

Quote from: Celtics4ever on Yesterday at 11:58:28 AM

I disagree with your assessment.    This has him ranked the 17th best shooting guard in the league.  22.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3.6 rpg, 0.5 spg, 43.0% FG%, 38.5% 3P%

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-ranking-top-30-shooting-guards-2024-25-season/

Stat Muse had him 11th in scoring.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/top-shooting-guards-in-scoring-2025

This website had him the 9th best PG

https://craftednba.com/player-stats

He is not a 7th or 8th best player on a team.    Just coming to our team with Tatum being out his is our 2nd or 3rd best player after Brown.   In some ways he is better than White, not defense and he has better stats than Pritchard He would slide down with a Tatum return.   I know his def rating is poor.   But please enlighten us what are you basing the player rating on?

I should clarify the level I put has to do with what I think he brings in approximate value compared to the salary cap, not what he?ll actually get paid. Where he should be in the pecking order of a team if you want to win, not where he will be. Maybe he?ll get more than the MLE if he has a much better season this year than any other season he?s had, especially if he becomes something other than a terrible defender, but based on what he has been in his seven NBA seasons so far, I wouldn?t want the Celtics to be paying him more than $10-12 mil per year.

Simons to me has shown he?s a scorer who is not amazingly efficient and a bottom 10th percentile defender. Most advanced stats - win shares, VORP, BPM, LEBRON-WAR - have him outside the top 100 players in the NBA. In LEBRON-WAR he came in 110th with 2.77 wins added, behind Hauser at 108 with 2.86. His defensive LEBRON rating last year was 549th of 567 players. He has shooting potential but his sub 50% on two points shots suggests some combination of poor rim finishing, poor shot selection and inability to get shots off because of his size. Doesn?t rebound and doesn?t defend.

LEBRON explanation:
https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/

LEBRON sortable data:
https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-application/

Would I rather have Simons than Hauser at the same salary? Yes for sure. Would I rather have Simons than Hauser if he?s making even $5 mil a year more? No. And I?m not even that high on Hauser (if you could get below the actual tax threshold for the year I?d dump him for a second rounder). Because they?re both bench guys who can and probably will get played off the floor when playoff games start counting.

The team that knows Simons best, Portland, looked at Jrue?s age 34 performance last year and decided they would so much rather have Jrue?s ages 35-37 seasons at about $35 mil a year than 26 year old Simons that they threw in 2 second rounders (whether or not they always intended to snake them back over Medicaid) to get the Celtics to take the deal.

C4e, from your items, yes, hoopshype subjectively ranked Simons as the 17th best shooting guard last summer. Look at the guys around him - how much would you actually want to pay to have Malik Monk (14), Cam Thomas (15), Donte DiVincenzo (16), RJ Barrett (18), Collin Sexton (19) or Klay Thompson (20) on the Cs? 17th at the position is not great. It?s a starter on a bad team or bench guy on a good one. And when you?re already paying 70% of the salary cap to two guys, you can?t be spending $20 million plus on bench guys. Not if you want to win.

Oh and when that list is updated this year, expect Simons to be lower. Ivey (24), Caruso (25), probably Shaedon Sharpe (26, whom Portland valued above Simons) and Norm Powell (30) will likely leapfrog him. In fact, hoopshype did another subjective list a few weeks ago of the top free agents next summer and put Simons at 26th, behind Powell (11), Ivey (18), Sexton (22) and Dyson Daniels (16), who wasn?t even on last year?s top 30 SGs list. So Simons would actually be down to the 21-24 range.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/2026-nba-free-agent-rankings-the-best-players-available-next-year/

Also, craftednba didn?t have Simons as the 9th best PG in the NBA. That link was to a data set in which the default first sorting category is minutes played. What you referenced says only that Simons played the 9th most minutes among players that site classified as point guards. If you go to any of the advanced stats he?ll be in the 20s.

For comps, I don?t know because things are changing and next summer will be different than this summer because more teams will have some level of space. But this year the only guy who was lured to a new team for more than the MLE was Turner and he will be making $2.3 mil less than Simons next year. Alexander-Walker 4 and $61, Finney-Smith 4 and $53, Tre Jones and Tre Mann 3 and $24, D?Angelo Russell 2 and $12, Tyus Jones 1 and $7, Levert 2 and $29.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents

There will be more money available next year but teams - at least smart ones - are becoming more and more reluctant to get stuck on bad contracts and if Simons gets 3-4 years at $25 mil plus without a huge improvement in his defense, he?s going to be a bad contract or at best a guy who keeps putting up raw scoring numbers on bad teams while his poor defense prevents him from helping a team win. That?s not something a smart team pays more than the MLE for.

Like I said my dream scenario would be to flip him for Vucevic.  In addition to the advantages of being a center which Boston needs and a better overall player (albeit older), plus chopping $6.3 mil in salary, Vucevic (btw, 13th in that hoopshype ranking of next year?s free agents) at $21,481,481 fits within the KP trade exception so you get a new $27.6 mil trade exception. Maybe Simons can have a hot start to the year and the Cs can make a trade like that closer to the deadline without having to include any second round picks and have until the 27 deadline to be able to bring in a $25 mil a year starting caliber player. But if they could do it now by throwing in a second round pick I?d do it in a heartbeat.

Good post.  I'd definitely trade Simons for Vucevic except I don't want to hurt our soft tank.  Need to trade Simons soon.  Going to be a lot harder to trade him at the deadline. 

My initial point was just confusion as to why Simons doesn?t have more value than Jrue given that Jrue is 35 after a decline year with 3 years and 130+ million left on his contract.

More value = ??

Meaning trade value or on-court value?

I disagree with your assessment.    This has him ranked the 17th best shooting guard in the league.  22.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3.6 rpg, 0.5 spg, 43.0% FG%, 38.5% 3P%

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-ranking-top-30-shooting-guards-2024-25-season/

Stat Muse had him 11th in scoring.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/top-shooting-guards-in-scoring-2025

This website had him the 9th best PG

https://craftednba.com/player-stats

He is not a 7th or 8th best player on a team.    Just coming to our team with Tatum being out his is our 2nd or 3rd best player after Brown.   In some ways he is better than White, not defense and he has better stats than Pritchard He would slide down with a Tatum return.   I know his def rating is poor.   But please enlighten us what are you basing the player rating on?

I should clarify the level I put has to do with what I think he brings in approximate value compared to the salary cap, not what he?ll actually get paid. Where he should be in the pecking order of a team if you want to win, not where he will be. Maybe he?ll get more than the MLE if he has a much better season this year than any other season he?s had, especially if he becomes something other than a terrible defender, but based on what he has been in his seven NBA seasons so far, I wouldn?t want the Celtics to be paying him more than $10-12 mil per year.

Simons to me has shown he?s a scorer who is not amazingly efficient and a bottom 10th percentile defender. Most advanced stats - win shares, VORP, BPM, LEBRON-WAR - have him outside the top 100 players in the NBA. In LEBRON-WAR he came in 110th with 2.77 wins added, behind Hauser at 108 with 2.86. His defensive LEBRON rating last year was 549th of 567 players. He has shooting potential but his sub 50% on two points shots suggests some combination of poor rim finishing, poor shot selection and inability to get shots off because of his size. Doesn?t rebound and doesn?t defend.

LEBRON explanation:
https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/

LEBRON sortable data:
https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-application/

Would I rather have Simons than Hauser at the same salary? Yes for sure. Would I rather have Simons than Hauser if he?s making even $5 mil a year more? No. And I?m not even that high on Hauser (if you could get below the actual tax threshold for the year I?d dump him for a second rounder). Because they?re both bench guys who can and probably will get played off the floor when playoff games start counting.

The team that knows Simons best, Portland, looked at Jrue?s age 34 performance last year and decided they would so much rather have Jrue?s ages 35-37 seasons at about $35 mil a year than 26 year old Simons that they threw in 2 second rounders (whether or not they always intended to snake them back over Medicaid) to get the Celtics to take the deal.

C4e, from your items, yes, hoopshype subjectively ranked Simons as the 17th best shooting guard last summer. Look at the guys around him - how much would you actually want to pay to have Malik Monk (14), Cam Thomas (15), Donte DiVincenzo (16), RJ Barrett (18), Collin Sexton (19) or Klay Thompson (20) on the Cs? 17th at the position is not great. It?s a starter on a bad team or bench guy on a good one. And when you?re already paying 70% of the salary cap to two guys, you can?t be spending $20 million plus on bench guys. Not if you want to win.

Oh and when that list is updated this year, expect Simons to be lower. Ivey (24), Caruso (25), probably Shaedon Sharpe (26, whom Portland valued above Simons) and Norm Powell (30) will likely leapfrog him. In fact, hoopshype did another subjective list a few weeks ago of the top free agents next summer and put Simons at 26th, behind Powell (11), Ivey (18), Sexton (22) and Dyson Daniels (16), who wasn?t even on last year?s top 30 SGs list. So Simons would actually be down to the 21-24 range.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/2026-nba-free-agent-rankings-the-best-players-available-next-year/

Also, craftednba didn?t have Simons as the 9th best PG in the NBA. That link was to a data set in which the default first sorting category is minutes played. What you referenced says only that Simons played the 9th most minutes among players that site classified as point guards. If you go to any of the advanced stats he?ll be in the 20s.

For comps, I don?t know because things are changing and next summer will be different than this summer because more teams will have some level of space. But this year the only guy who was lured to a new team for more than the MLE was Turner and he will be making $2.3 mil less than Simons next year. Alexander-Walker 4 and $61, Finney-Smith 4 and $53, Tre Jones and Tre Mann 3 and $24, D?Angelo Russell 2 and $12, Tyus Jones 1 and $7, Levert 2 and $29.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents

There will be more money available next year but teams - at least smart ones - are becoming more and more reluctant to get stuck on bad contracts and if Simons gets 3-4 years at $25 mil plus without a huge improvement in his defense, he?s going to be a bad contract or at best a guy who keeps putting up raw scoring numbers on bad teams while his poor defense prevents him from helping a team win. That?s not something a smart team pays more than the MLE for.

Like I said my dream scenario would be to flip him for Vucevic.  In addition to the advantages of being a center which Boston needs and a better overall player (albeit older), plus chopping $6.3 mil in salary, Vucevic (btw, 13th in that hoopshype ranking of next year?s free agents) at $21,481,481 fits within the KP trade exception so you get a new $27.6 mil trade exception. Maybe Simons can have a hot start to the year and the Cs can make a trade like that closer to the deadline without having to include any second round picks and have until the 27 deadline to be able to bring in a $25 mil a year starting caliber player. But if they could do it now by throwing in a second round pick I?d do it in a heartbeat.

Quote from: Neurotic Guy on Yesterday at 05:42:47 PM

I remain a bit confused as to why Simons isn?t flat out considered more valuable than Jrue.  Is it about the remaining time and money on their contracts?  I?d rather Simons on an expiring than three more years of Jrue and 130M.  But just for pure skill, Simons is a better player.  That?s of course an opinion based on the belief that Jrue took a downturn in 2024-25 and I expect it to continue in the same direction in the coming years.  Not only did he decline offensively but he wasn?t as effective defensively either. Obviously he?s still more talented than Simons defensively and in terms of leadership - but the 26 year old is a very good offensive guard.  I didn?t see much of him over the years but the few games I saw him I thought he was pretty impressive. Though I have to admit that I?m more readily aware of offensive talent than defensive talent. He can shoot, pass, create.  I?m surprised there isn?t a market for him now and will be more surprised if there isn?t one at the deadline.  And I would not be surprised if some here won?t want to give him up when they picture adding JT to the existing lineup. 

I?m wrong frequently so it won?t surprise me if I?m wrong again - but I expect Simons will look like a Jrue upgrade next year.

They remind me of the 2011 Dallas Mavericks.

Anfernee Simons = Jason Terry
Jrue Holiday = Jason Kidd

Jrue / Kidd being the ultimate glue guy / do all the little things in every phase of the game. A Simons / J Terry being a very talented offensive player / dodgy defender.

People can debate which guy was more valuable to the 2011 Mavs. I would go with Kidd myself but I believe most people would chose Jason Terry over Kidd. Terry was certainly the 2nd best scorer on the team behind Dirk.

2-way players are more valuable.  Come playoff time those good offense, poor defense player will get hunted especially small guards.  Players like Simons need to be 1st or 2nd option offensively to make up for their poor defense and the other 4 players need to good defenders.