Author Topic: Two Competing Truths  (Read 5559 times)

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Two Competing Truths
« on: May 07, 2019, 11:38:56 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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This disgusting, disappointing team has inspired a lot of takes in the last couple of weeks.  We're all feeling a certain way about this team.  This team has been making us all feel a certain way pretty much all year.


There's one major theme running through much of the discussion in the wake of the latest dispiriting loss: talent.

A common refrain:

The Celtics are way too talented to be this bad.

They are a team of individuals, they don't play the right way, Kyrie isn't a leader, they don't like each other, Brad Stevens is doing a bad job, etc.

But also:

The Celtics aren't that talented!

The Bucks have the best player in the series!  Kyrie would not be the best player on any of the other teams still alive in the playoffs!  They were overrated all along!


So which is it?



Personally, I feel both perspectives are correct, to an extent.


This Celtics team isn't as talented as they were made out to be since before the season began.  They don't have a MVP caliber player on the roster.  They only have one no-doubt All-Star, and that guy is not a lock to make All-NBA in any given season.

We never should have looked at this team as the "clear cut team to beat in the East" or anything like that.

Kyrie is a perennial All-Star who doesn't have the size to impose his will against any given opponent and who doesn't make an impact on the defensive end (unless it's a negative impact).

Horford is a complementary player, albeit an elite one.  Same applies to Smart.

Hayward isn't anything more than a decent utility bench player who occasionally has a big game.

Jayson and Jaylen are inconsistent, because they're young, but overall, right now, they are solid starting wings with the ability to occasionally take their game up a level.

Rozier is an erratic, excessively confident backup combo guard.

Morris is an excessively confident yet fairly consistent borderline starter who mostly looks for his own offense and brings more grit than discipline on defense.

Baynes is a solid post defender who is very injury prone and gets exposed when he needs to move his feet quickly.




With all of that said ... the Celts are better than this.

This roster is good enough to win 50 games.  They have the pieces to have a more balanced distribution of shots.  They have more than enough intelligent players to keep the ball moving and respond to adversity by making good decisions instead of reverting to hero ball.

Brad Stevens is not perfect, but he could have prepared the team better than he has.



It feels important to me that we acknowledge both parts of this.  Yes, this team was never as talented as the pre-season expectations made them out to be.  They never should have been talked about as a favorite to win the East, let alone seriously compete for a title.

At the same time, they have the talent on the roster right now to be a better team than they are.  But as I posted a few days ago, simply having the roster isn't enough.  You can't just decide one day to be a good team that plays the right way.  A good team is built over many months.  First by putting the roster in place, and then by building the trust and the habits and the determination over the course of many games, many weeks, many situations.


We as Celtics fans deserve to feel that this team has let us down, even if our expectations for them were too high.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2019, 11:48:00 AM »

Offline seancally

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TP. Competing narratives, but both are true. One point to add:

Our expectations were based on the incorrect assumption that Hayward would make something like a full recovery. He has not. For as good as he's looked late in the year and in Round 1, that's compared to earlier this season, not the GH of Utah. Compared to that man, he's not close. I feel for him, and I also think the playoffs against the top dog in the league are just a notch above what he can do right now.

They were also based on the assumption that Tatum would be a season, polished scorer - fair to make based on Year 1, but ultimately not the case.

Now, next year's team? Those guys are talented!!! Banner 18 here we come baby!!!
"The game honors toughness." - President Stevens

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2019, 11:48:59 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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This season makes 10x more sense than last season.

Fans are never going to be able to understand that.  Last season’s playoff run was literally unprecedented.  Also, overrated if you look at it rationally.

This season, a team with a top 25 player and no other stars winning 49 games and losing in round 2 to the #1 seed is completely logical. 

On some level I’m disappointed too, but my level of disappointment is completely dwarfed by my all-out dumbfounded shock that a starless team of children was able to win a couple playoff series last year.  That made no sense whatsoever.

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2019, 11:49:22 AM »

Online JBcat

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I think Giannis is playing at an MVP level, and has the right pieces around him.  Middleton is playing quietly really well as a good 2nd Star. They are deep, and it’s not just those 2 players.

We have a very talented team, but the pieces don’t fit quite as nicely.  We don’t have anyone on Giannis’s level. Hayward and Tatum have been up and down, Horford has his struggles with Giannis. 

There is a reason why the Bucks were a juggernaut during the season. Hopefully we get Davis in the offseason.

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2019, 11:51:34 AM »

Offline seancally

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This season makes 10x more sense than last season.

Fans are never going to be able to understand that.  Last season’s playoff run was literally unprecedented.  Also, overrated if you look at it rationally.

This season, a team with a top 25 player and no other stars winning 49 games and losing in round 2 to the #1 seed is completely logical. 

On some level I’m disappointed too, but my level of disappointment is completely dwarfed by my all-out dumbfounded shock that a starless team of children were able to win a couple playoff series last year.

I honestly think this year's top 4 eastern conference team  - INCLUDING the Celtics - could have come out of last year's Eastern conference playoffs, and beaten either last year's celtics or last year's cavs.
"The game honors toughness." - President Stevens

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2019, 11:52:10 AM »

Offline gpap

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I just don't think the pieces to the puzzle ever fit.

Too many cooks in the kitchen. Everybody had something to prove, everybody wanted more minutes which lead to individual agendas getting in the way of playing as a collective unit.

Kyrie was on a crusade to prove he's a top-tier talent than can singlehandedly lead a team and not sharing the ball as much as he should have. Yesterday, he was 7-22 and followed that up by saying that he should've taken even more field goal attempts which means he doesn't really see the error of his ways.

We also never had a pure shooting guard. Smart played the role for a majority of the season but it wasn't his natural role. He's a point, not a 2 guard. Hayward was all screwed up. He wasn't mentally ready to start the season. As the season went on, he gained more confidence and his play improved but he was still relegated to bench duty. Thus, the offense never really ran through him.

Tatum regressed and I think he lost some confidence amidst the Anthony Davis fiasco. Baynes was constantly injured and Al tried to make the most of his situation. The issue with Al is while he's still a great player, he's also not getting any younger.

Marcus Morris was your typical hot and cold player and Rozier's season was a waste.

Where the Celts go from here is a mystery.

I fully expect Smart, Hayward and Horford to be back next season. I think Kyrie and Morris are gone. Rozier could be used in a potential sign and trade. Baynes will likely exercise his player option.  I think Tatum and/or Brown could be dangled for the right trade but I also don't expect Ainge to simply give them away. I also think a power forward/center wouldn't be a bad idea to give Horford a little bit of a reprieve throughout the season and keep him fresh for the playoffs.


Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2019, 11:59:15 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I just don't think the pieces to the puzzle ever fit.

Too many cooks in the kitchen. Everybody had something to prove, everybody wanted more minutes which lead to individual agendas getting in the way of playing as a collective unit.

Kyrie was on a crusade to prove he's a top-tier talent than can singlehandedly lead a team and not sharing the ball as much as he should have. Yesterday, he was 7-22 and followed that up by saying that he should've taken even more field goal attempts which means he doesn't really see the error of his ways.

We also never had a pure shooting guard. Smart played the role for a majority of the season but it wasn't his natural role. He's a point, not a 2 guard. Hayward was all screwed up. He wasn't mentally ready to start the season. As the season went on, he gained more confidence and his play improved but he was still relegated to bench duty. Thus, the offense never really ran through him.

Tatum regressed and I think he lost some confidence amidst the Anthony Davis fiasco. Baynes was constantly injured and Al tried to make the most of his situation. The issue with Al is while he's still a great player, he's also not getting any younger.

Marcus Morris was your typical hot and cold player and Rozier's season was a waste.

Where the Celts go from here is a mystery.

I fully expect Smart, Hayward and Horford to be back next season. I think Kyrie and Morris are gone. Rozier could be used in a potential sign and trade. Baynes will likely exercise his player option.


I'd like to move on from Baynes, if possible.  I suppose he could be kept around if only as an end of bench guy.  I just don't think he can stay healthy if he's a guy you're relying on to play regular minutes.  His value is matchup dependent.

I suppose he's nice to have when the team goes against Philly.

But especially if Kyrie leaves, which seems likely, I'd rather give the center minutes to younger players.


I would also move on from Yabu, who just hasn't shown that he's got a place in the league.

Theis is fine if they can re-sign him for the minimum.  I don't think he's better than a 5th or 6th big.  What team needs five or six big men?  These days I think you need three or four reliable pure big men and that's about it.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2019, 12:02:20 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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This season makes 10x more sense than last season.

Fans are never going to be able to understand that.  Last season’s playoff run was literally unprecedented.  Also, overrated if you look at it rationally.

This season, a team with a top 25 player and no other stars winning 49 games and losing in round 2 to the #1 seed is completely logical. 

On some level I’m disappointed too, but my level of disappointment is completely dwarfed by my all-out dumbfounded shock that a starless team of children was able to win a couple playoff series last year.  That made no sense whatsoever.


This is basically the take I'm disagreeing with.  I think it's correct to say that the run to the ECF last year was a mirage in many respects.  I also think it's correct to say that this roster was not good enough to justify expectations that they could win 55-60+ games and win a much improved Eastern Conference.

That said, the Celtics left a lot of games on the table this year.  They've played dumb in a lot of big spots.  They've blown a LOT of leads.

I know that you watch too many of the games and are too smart about basketball to say that this team made the most of the pieces they had on the roster and we shouldn't have expected any better.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2019, 12:48:41 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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This season makes 10x more sense than last season.

Fans are never going to be able to understand that.  Last season’s playoff run was literally unprecedented.  Also, overrated if you look at it rationally.

This season, a team with a top 25 player and no other stars winning 49 games and losing in round 2 to the #1 seed is completely logical. 

On some level I’m disappointed too, but my level of disappointment is completely dwarfed by my all-out dumbfounded shock that a starless team of children was able to win a couple playoff series last year.  That made no sense whatsoever.


This is basically the take I'm disagreeing with.  I think it's correct to say that the run to the ECF last year was a mirage in many respects.  I also think it's correct to say that this roster was not good enough to justify expectations that they could win 55-60+ games and win a much improved Eastern Conference.

That said, the Celtics left a lot of games on the table this year.  They've played dumb in a lot of big spots.  They've blown a LOT of leads.

I know that you watch too many of the games and are too smart about basketball to say that this team made the most of the pieces they had on the roster and we shouldn't have expected any better.

I still think having “too many guys” was a massive problem and I think a crazy case can be made that if you took the entire roster and split them into two teams, each team would have been better off.

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2019, 02:03:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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This season makes 10x more sense than last season.

Fans are never going to be able to understand that.  Last season’s playoff run was literally unprecedented.  Also, overrated if you look at it rationally.

This season, a team with a top 25 player and no other stars winning 49 games and losing in round 2 to the #1 seed is completely logical. 

On some level I’m disappointed too, but my level of disappointment is completely dwarfed by my all-out dumbfounded shock that a starless team of children was able to win a couple playoff series last year.  That made no sense whatsoever.


This is basically the take I'm disagreeing with.  I think it's correct to say that the run to the ECF last year was a mirage in many respects.  I also think it's correct to say that this roster was not good enough to justify expectations that they could win 55-60+ games and win a much improved Eastern Conference.

That said, the Celtics left a lot of games on the table this year.  They've played dumb in a lot of big spots.  They've blown a LOT of leads.

I know that you watch too many of the games and are too smart about basketball to say that this team made the most of the pieces they had on the roster and we shouldn't have expected any better.

I still think having “too many guys” was a massive problem and I think a crazy case can be made that if you took the entire roster and split them into two teams, each team would have been better off.


I think if you took the roster on Day 1 and removed Rozier and Morris that they probably would have been better over the balance of the season.


The two biggest components of the team being in a malaise all year, in my opinion, were Kyrie being a non-leader / weirdo and Hayward struggling to find himself as he makes his way back from his injury.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2019, 02:10:48 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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I think the second truth is more accurate, plus I'll add a third truth.  We have a top 20 player as lead dog.  We have a top 30-40 player as second fiddle.  And neither Brown or Tatum are close to all star level.  We are not that talented.

My third truth is chemistry/team related.  The pieces CLEARLY never fit very well and the team has holes.  Young and old, mostly ball dominant players, no dead eye shooter on the entire roster, and potentially not enough talented beef in the middle.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 02:17:54 PM by droopdog7 »

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2019, 02:13:33 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I'm confused, what does better than this mean?  If Boston won 1 more game it would be a 50 win team and it would still be the 4 seed.  If even in your thinking that Boston isn't a realistic contender, then Boston would be losing in the ECS any way.  So what exactly does better than this mean in that context?  The only thing better than this is beating Milwaukee and Milwaukee is just flat out a better team with BY FAR the best player in the series.  Any expectation that says otherwise is just strange to me.  You need MVP level of players to truly win and Boston doesn't have any of those.  They are basically in their best case the Toronto Raptors (pre-Kawhi).  A team that can win a lot of games, but is never going to realistically contend for the title and frankly that is what Boston is right now.
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Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2019, 02:15:28 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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My third truth is chemistry.  The pieces CLEARLY never fit very well and the team has holes.  Young and old, mostly ball dominant players and no dead eye shooter on the entire roster.


This is a good point.


Remember how excited everybody was about the Kyrie - Jaylen - Jayson - Hayward - Horford lineup?

That was going to be the most versatile, tough to cover lineup in the East.


And then it wasn't.  In fact, it was really bad. 


Part of this is the simple fact that, when it came down to it, those pieces don't seem to fit very well together.  Yes, part of the reason they don't fit is that Hayward is not the player he was before his injury.  But I think there's reason to think they still might not work very well even if Hayward had never been injured.  There's just something missing with that lineup.

Because of that, the core thesis of this team turns out to be flawed.  So for that reason alone this roster was never going to reach the heights we wanted.  The group that was supposed to be their best five not only underperformed relative to expectations, they actually were just plain bad.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2019, 02:21:58 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'm confused, what does better than this mean? 


- A more balanced offensive gameplan; specifically, the highest usage players on the team e.g. Kyrie, Tatum, Morris trying to get to the basket instead of taking so many jumpers.   But also just generally having more plays and actions that generate looks closer to the basket.

- Making smart decisions and moving the ball when things get difficult instead of reverting to hero ball; responding to runs and deficits with sloppy, rushed decisionmaking has been a negative hallmark of this team all year

- Giving less time to shot-happy supporting players (Rozier, Morris) and integrating more team-oriented role players into the rotation earlier in the season (e.g. Ojeleye, Wanamaker or finding buyout options)

- More consistent focus and effort on defense


In terms of results, I think it was absolutely on the table for this team to win 50-55 games this year.  If they had won the half a dozen games they blew this year with huge leads, that would have gotten them into that range.

I think they could have been good enough that they would at least win a couple games against this Bucks team and keep some of these games close in the fourth quarter.

Instead, it looks like they're essentially going to get swept in straight blowouts after a fluke of a game one.


Indeed, if they had played better in the regular season they might have earned the 3 seed, which would mean they'd be playing Toronto right now.  Toronto is a good team but I think a focused and disciplined Celts team would have a better chance at beating them than they do against Milwaukee.


I can easily envision an alternate timeline where the Celts make the ECF again after earning the 3 seed and managing to beat the Raptors in a tight series.


I agree, though, that this team was never going to seriously compete for a title as they are constructed now.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Two Competing Truths
« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2019, 02:34:52 PM »

Offline footey

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TP. Competing narratives, but both are true.

A/K/A a Paradox.