The Myth of the 2018 Playoffs

[Csfan1984]

Bottom line is they beat worse teams and should have beat the Cavs if they gave the ball to Tatum more down the stretch. They were good because they gave a ton of effort and played together until that game 7 end. This is a different year the other teams are better while this team hasn't improved and isn't giving the same effort. The end of game 7's ugly hero ball finish should have taught them not imboldened them. The leaders or should I say vets on this team for that matter fail at promoting team play because too often they are selfish and bad on defense themselves.

[LilRip]

It’s no myth. And I believe that play could’ve been sustainable (fine, maybe not from Rozier) moving into the ff year. However, imo there were 3 huge shifting points that threw the team off rhythm:

1. The return of Gordon Hayward - meant less shots and more sharing. Kyrie was a guy that would have affected Rozier the most but Brown and Tatum would’ve likely continued with their trajectory. Both guys have taken a step back imo. Which brings me to...

2. The ISO’s of Jayson Tatum - idk if it’s because of Kobe or because of all the hype but Tatum has really taken a liking towards iso ball this year. Very Melo-esque. Idk if my memory is just skewed with bias but I don’t remember Tatum iso-ing this much last year or in the playoffs

3. Lineup change - granted, Baynes has been injured, but I thought it worked well for the team that Horford didn’t start at the 5. CBS found something that worked that got us out of the 10-10 funk. Maybe he should look into it again? Idk. Regardless, this ties with the 1st point I made too. Kyrie-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Horford was going to be a disaster. Kyrie-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Baynes should’ve been the lineup.

[mctyson]

haha the MYTH of the 2018 playoffs.  It wasn't a myth, it happened.  We were 1 game from a Finals appearance with all the young guys.  Did they get a nice draw in the playoffs?  probably.  Does it take anything away from that team?  Not at all. 

I got way more joy out of watching last years team than this years squad.

This years team would have gone on that same run.

Yeah but they will not be getting that run THIS YEAR because those teams THIS YEAR are much much better

[gouki88]

It’s no myth. And I believe that play could’ve been sustainable (fine, maybe not from Rozier) moving into the ff year. However, imo there were 3 huge shifting points that threw the team off rhythm:

1. The return of Gordon Hayward - meant less shots and more sharing. Kyrie was a guy that would have affected Rozier the most but Brown and Tatum would’ve likely continued with their trajectory. Both guys have taken a step back imo. Which brings me to...

2. The ISO’s of Jayson Tatum - idk if it’s because of Kobe or because of all the hype but Tatum has really taken a liking towards iso ball this year. Very Melo-esque. Idk if my memory is just skewed with bias but I don’t remember Tatum iso-ing this much last year or in the playoffs

3. Lineup change - granted, Baynes has been injured, but I thought it worked well for the team that Horford didn’t start at the 5. CBS found something that worked that got us out of the 10-10 funk. Maybe he should look into it again? Idk. Regardless, this ties with the 1st point I made too. Kyrie-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Horford was going to be a disaster. Kyrie-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Baynes should’ve been the lineup.

Point 1 is a bit of a weird one, because Tatum is taking considerably more FGA's per minute this season as opposed to during the playoffs last season, but is also taking considerably less free throws. I think this ties in with your second point - his game is fundamentally different. Taking way less shots from 0-3 feet (.372% during the playoffs vs .248% this season), taking considerably more shots from the mid-range (.260% during the playoffs vs .306% this season), and shooting both far less efficiently than he did during the playoffs.

Brown is taking less shots, but since the Cleveland game (ie, over the last month) he is actually shooting more per minute than he did during the playoffs. I think his recent play should earn him closer to 30 mins, as opposed to the 25 he gets.
Morris is another guy whose shot numbers have dwindled, but his efficiency has improved massively since his rather terrible playoff performance.

Who knows how to figure it out. Brown should definitely be a starter again. Rozier should get very little minutes. If I were Brad my rotation would be something like:
Kyrie (34) / Rozier (10) / Smart (4)
Brown (26) / Smart (20) / Hayward (2)
Tatum (28) / Hayward (16) / Brown (4)
Horford (16) / Morris (18) / Tatum (5) / Hayward (9)
Baynes (15) / Horford (14) / Theis (12) / Morris (7)

It's a bit of a mess, but it ends up with:
Kyrie - 34MPG
Horford - 30MPG
Tatum - 33MPG
Brown - 30MPG
Hayward - 27MPG
Smart - 24MPG
Morris - 25MPG
Baynes - 15MPG
Theis - 12MPG
Rozier - 10MPG

Once playoffs roll around I ideally would like Rozier out of the rotation almost entirely, barring injury. That way we'd end up with less small ball and a more consistently fluid offence, IMO.

[Celtics4ever]

It happened so it can't be a myth, period.   You can analyze all you want, but we beat those teams and lost the Cavs.  We are still whooping Philly regularly.

I think the majority of our problems is that guys on our team bought into the hype and think we have arrived.   This would explain how we play to the level of our opponents night in and night out.   We also  have some complex chemistry issues with player's returning from injury and guys who did well in the playoffs not wanting to go back to a reduced role.

[KGs Knee]

I think a more appropriate phrase would be 'fools gold'. Obviously, it can't be a myth, as it actually happened. But anyone seeing the relative success of the team last year without Kyrie, and thinking it was sustainable or repeatable are fooling themselves.

And I think the biggest problem there, lies in the fact that some of the younger players ended up with inflated egos as a result. As fun as it was to watch as a fan, it may have actually been detrimental to the team this season.

[gouki88]

I think a more appropriate phrase would be 'fools gold'. Obviously, it can't be a myth, as it actually happened. But anyone seeing the relative success of the team last year without Kyrie, and thinking it was sustainable or repeatable are fooling themselves.

And I think the biggest problem there, lies in the fact that some of the younger players ended up with inflated egos as a result. As fun as it was to watch as a fan, it may have actually been detrimental to the team this season.

Bingo!

[LarBrd33]

Lots of people commenting about my use of “Myth”.

The myth is that Boston without kyrie/Hayward is a world-beater because of the playoff run.

That playoff run wasn’t a big deal.  They haven’t proven anything. They barely snuck by a mediocre bucks team thanks to unrepeatable performances by guys like Rozier, kicked an unprepared Philly team in the teeth, and got beat by a Cavs team that nearly lost in the first round to the Pacers.  Technically, the pacers took the Cavs further than we did since they only lost game 7 by 4 points and we lost by 8.

Not a big deal.   The idea this team can contend without our stars is the myth.   That was a fluke unprecedented run.  They deserve credit for overachieving, but it’s important to recognize they overachieved.

The post was a direct response to a growing sentiment im seeing from Celtic fans (especially on Reddit) which is literally people saying “please leave, kyrie - we were better without you”

That’s the myth.

[CF033]

The truth is we're not currently world beaters with or without Kyrie.

[ozgod]

Beating expectations is always fun.

Failing to meet expectations, not so much.

If we're honest with ourselves, last season none of us had much expectations, we were slitting wrists after the first game when Gordon went down and even when we got to the No2 seed we all said to ourselves, we're playing with house money. That's what was so fun about it, expectations weren't high but they blew those expectations out of the water. Also, it's always fun watching young players shocking the world, that's what was fun about watching Michigan's Fab Five back in the 90s.

This year we had Gordon back, Kyrie back after missing the playoffs, we all thought our team integrate everyone without a problem, we would somehow fit in Gordon and his 25mpg and Kyrie and his 35mpg and everyone else would somehow still have the same output as before. We would coast through the regular season, get to the No1 seed with ease and then make a deep playoff run culminating in a chance to unseat Golden State. And it wasn't just us, it was everyone - media, players, everyone thought we were a lock. But the games are played on the court not on paper and the season has turned into a disappointment of missed expectations, made even more irritating by the occasional flashes of brilliance when we show we can hang with anyone.

I still think we can make some noise in the playoffs though. We have a concentration and effort issue with lesser teams. Maybe last season they all had more to prove than this season, this season they know they can do it so they're just coasting till the serious end of the season arrives.

Also regarding Kyrie, let's not forget he played most of last season until he was shut down with a month to go before the start of the playoffs. He was a pretty important part of why we were No1 in the EC for most of the season.

[CF033]

I'm not sure anyone thinks we're a championship caliber team without Kyrie, it's just the question of whether we're really that much worse off without him.

We seem like two completely different teams when he plays or not. It seems like when he's out we become a tougher, more gritty underdog type that Brad seems to excel at coaching.

I don't think we're a better team when he doesn't play but are we really that much worse? I'm not so sure.

[mmmmm]

haha the MYTH of the 2018 playoffs.  It wasn't a myth, it happened.  We were 1 game from a Finals appearance with all the young guys.  Did they get a nice draw in the playoffs?  probably.  Does it take anything away from that team?  Not at all. 

I got way more joy out of watching last years team than this years squad.

This years team would have gone on that same run.

Possibly.  Hopefully.

But we don't actually know that to be true.   

Until it actually happens, pretending that your assertion is true is the only real 'myth' here.

[PhoSita]

I'm actually pretty skeptical that this year's team would go on the same run, just because I think they lack a lot of the intangible qualities that team had.

But I think this year's team would be favored in any series against any other opponent in the East if they had HCA.  So maybe they would.

The problem is this year's team isn't going to have HCA.

[Moranis]

Lots of people commenting about my use of “Myth”.

The myth is that Boston without kyrie/Hayward is a world-beater because of the playoff run.

That playoff run wasn’t a big deal.  They haven’t proven anything. They barely snuck by a mediocre bucks team thanks to unrepeatable performances by guys like Rozier, kicked an unprepared Philly team in the teeth, and got beat by a Cavs team that nearly lost in the first round to the Pacers.  Technically, the pacers took the Cavs further than we did since they only lost game 7 by 4 points and we lost by 8.

Not a big deal.   The idea this team can contend without our stars is the myth.   That was a fluke unprecedented run.  They deserve credit for overachieving, but it’s important to recognize they overachieved.

The post was a direct response to a growing sentiment im seeing from Celtic fans (especially on Reddit) which is literally people saying “please leave, kyrie - we were better without you”

That’s the myth.

I don't think they overachieved in the playoffs last year at all.  They got a very lucky draw (like had they had the Cavs draw, I'm not sure they beat Indiana and they don't beat Toronto), but I would expect Boston to beat Milwaukee and Philadelphia more times than not with home court advantage and to play the Cavs very closely with the roster that the team had entering the playoffs last year.  This year Milwaukee is a much better team so the same would not hold true this year (same with Philly though Boston still matches up well with the Sixers), but last year it wasn't a fluke, it wasn't an unprecedented run.  The team performed about as they should have. 

[mmmmm]

We were 10-1 at home, but just 1-7 on the road. Rozier was phenomenal in that run, but frankly in all but one road game he was mediocre. I feel that's where having a healthy Kyrie (and Hayward) will help us as it looks like we'll need to win some road games for sure to have a chance at making the Finals.

Maybe.  But so far this season there isn't a lot of evidence that we are all that great of a road team even with Kyrie and Gordon.  Maybe if/when Gordon gets healthier.  But not so far.

The 2007-08 NBA Champion team wasn't all that good on the road in the playoffs either.   That team went 12-1 at home and just 3-9 on the road.

So I'm not sure the fact that last year's team was only 1-7 on the road tells us that much.