Author Topic: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018  (Read 3501 times)

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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2019, 10:22:31 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison).

I probably have Ayton too low, he could really be as high as #7 or so... but 18-19 year old 7 footers who've flashed the ability to score at all 3 levels in the NBA already- and can nail 3's efficiently at volume, rebound & protect the rim passably- are elite prospects in 2019's NBA.  That's why I have LM & JJJ higher, but Ayton could easily be better.

I also disagree about Booker.  He's one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, has no discernible offensive weakness and is only 22.  I think his D could improve over time and I'm certain his advanced metrics will when his teammates get better.  The Suns also stink at developing talent so he probably still has plenty of upside.
Booker is a mediocre shooter at just 32.6% from 3 and as result his TS% is just 57%.  He turns the ball over a ton as well (and he keeps getting worse at that).  He is a good passer and rebounder for his size and position and he has improved his 2PT% a great deal, but his 3 PT% is bad this year and has regressed.  Maybe it is a fluke or maybe it isn't.  And in 4 years Booker has shown no improvement at all defensively.  He hasn't shown the ability to be an even average defender.  Booker is vastly becoming an inefficient gunner.  he is still young, but there is no way I'd take Booker over Ayton (assuming the exact same contracts).  None at all.

'Concur completely with you on this.  Booker is a good, decently efficient high-volume scorer.  But he is not an elite efficiency scorer and is a very poor basketball player in all other respects.   He is possibly the worse defender in the NBA.

That's why he's going in the 6-10 range.  He is a very good passer and a solid rebounder.  If he were a good defender I believe he would be as valuable as Tatum playing for a competent franchise, but at 22 and in a redraft situation, you gamble on turning his defense around and take a player that is top 12-13 in scoring and assists at age 22.

Booker, Towns, Simmons, Mitchell, Tatum & Doncic are proven guys, and Markannen, Fox & Ayton just need to not have major letdown years next year to say the same.  That's why they're at/near the top of my draft.
he is 4 years in though. Historically you get very little improvement after 4 years for the guys that basically play from the start.  I absolutely expect Booker to be a similar player in 3 years that he is now.
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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2019, 11:28:08 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison).

I probably have Ayton too low, he could really be as high as #7 or so... but 18-19 year old 7 footers who've flashed the ability to score at all 3 levels in the NBA already- and can nail 3's efficiently at volume, rebound & protect the rim passably- are elite prospects in 2019's NBA.  That's why I have LM & JJJ higher, but Ayton could easily be better.

I also disagree about Booker.  He's one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, has no discernible offensive weakness and is only 22.  I think his D could improve over time and I'm certain his advanced metrics will when his teammates get better.  The Suns also stink at developing talent so he probably still has plenty of upside.
Booker is a mediocre shooter at just 32.6% from 3 and as result his TS% is just 57%.  He turns the ball over a ton as well (and he keeps getting worse at that).  He is a good passer and rebounder for his size and position and he has improved his 2PT% a great deal, but his 3 PT% is bad this year and has regressed.  Maybe it is a fluke or maybe it isn't.  And in 4 years Booker has shown no improvement at all defensively.  He hasn't shown the ability to be an even average defender.  Booker is vastly becoming an inefficient gunner.  he is still young, but there is no way I'd take Booker over Ayton (assuming the exact same contracts).  None at all.

'Concur completely with you on this.  Booker is a good, decently efficient high-volume scorer.  But he is not an elite efficiency scorer and is a very poor basketball player in all other respects.   He is possibly the worse defender in the NBA.

That's why he's going in the 6-10 range.  He is a very good passer and a solid rebounder.  If he were a good defender I believe he would be as valuable as Tatum playing for a competent franchise, but at 22 and in a redraft situation, you gamble on turning his defense around and take a player that is top 12-13 in scoring and assists at age 22.

Booker, Towns, Simmons, Mitchell, Tatum & Doncic are proven guys, and Markannen, Fox & Ayton just need to not have major letdown years next year to say the same.  That's why they're at/near the top of my draft.
he is 4 years in though. Historically you get very little improvement after 4 years for the guys that basically play from the start.  I absolutely expect Booker to be a similar player in 3 years that he is now.

Smart looks better in year 5 and so does Jokic. Vucevic is better this year. Kyrie is better this year. KAT is better literally the last 2 months. Tobias Harris got better beyond 4 years in, Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, Giannis, Middleton, Deangelo Russell. I think I’ve said enough.
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #32 on: February 26, 2019, 11:40:14 PM »

Offline wiley

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6. Markkanen
7. Bagley
8. Porzingis

9.   D. Mitchell
10. Jalylen Brown
11. Siakam


Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #33 on: February 27, 2019, 01:53:07 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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6. Booker
7. Markkanen
8. Ayton
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #34 on: February 27, 2019, 01:58:43 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Another draft announcement:

The #6 pick is Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns!


Current standings (next player to be drafted needs 5 votes):

Lauri Markkanen (Chicago Bulls) 4
Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns) 4
Marvin Bagley (Sacramento Kings) 3
Kristaps Porzingis (Dallas Mavericks) 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies) 2
Donovan Mitchell (Utah Jazz) 1
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #35 on: February 27, 2019, 02:33:56 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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This is my 2nd vote for picks #7 and #8 (I think it still counts) but #9 is new and not in original order.

#7 - Mitchell
#8 - Markannen
#9 - Ayton (he jumped JJJ)

Next 3 up:

10) Jaren Jackson Jr
11) KP
12) Bagley

As a last point on Booker, he's top 14 in ppg and apg at age 22.  This year, the 5 guys top 15 in points/assists are:

Lebron (9th, 4th) - entering his mid-30s, he's a top 3 player of all time.
Harden (1st, 8th) - turning 30, likely the winner of the last 2 MVPs, with 4 top 3 finishes the past 5 years.
Irving (15th, 11th) - age 27 by playoffs, top 12 player, All-NBA 2nd team caliber G.
Lillard (10th, 14th) - age 28, top 12 player, All-NBA 2nd team caliber G.
Booker (14th, 12th) - age 22, will still be 22 at the start of next year.

Booker is 4.5+ years younger than the 2nd youngest.  None of these guys played D at 22 and no one besides Lebron (top 3 all time) won at 22, except maybe Harden off the bench (not comparable to Booker's load).  He's defensible at #6 because what he gives you is historically rare, and you hope he can work on his flaws, which are certainly real.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2019, 04:33:08 PM by smokeablount »
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #36 on: February 27, 2019, 03:50:00 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Another draft announcement:

The #7 pick is Lauri Markkanen of the Chicago Bulls!
The #8 pick is Deandre Ayton of the Phoenix Suns!


Current standings (next player to be drafted needs 5 votes):

Marvin Bagley (Sacramento Kings) 3
Kristaps Porzingis (Dallas Mavericks) 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies) 2
Donovan Mitchell (Utah Jazz) 2
« Last Edit: February 27, 2019, 04:58:29 PM by RodyTur10 »
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #37 on: February 27, 2019, 04:32:09 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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TP to the OP
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2019, 05:31:16 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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9. Donovan Mitchell
10. Kristaps Porzingas
11. Marvin Bagley

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2019, 05:40:24 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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9. Mitchell (already counted today)
10. Jaren Jackson Jr (not counted)
11. KP (not counted)

Looks like KP is #9 and Bagley, Mitchell and JJJ are racing to round out the top 12.  This is more fun than the Celtics!
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #40 on: February 27, 2019, 06:16:00 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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9. Mitchell (already counted today)
10. Jaren Jackson Jr (not counted)
11. KP (not counted)

Looks like KP is #9 and Bagley, Mitchell and JJJ are racing to round out the top 12.  This is more fun than the Celtics!

I sent you a PM. Your vote from 02:33:56 PM already has been taken into account for the standings. You can only vote once a day, such that multiple posters get the chance to place their vote. TP back, btw  :D
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #41 on: February 28, 2019, 09:30:16 AM »

Offline wiley

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Bagley
Porzingis
Mitchell

Siakam
John Collins
Jaylen Brown

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #42 on: February 28, 2019, 10:06:13 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Another draft announcement, with 3 players being drafted:

The #9 pick is Marvin Bagley of the Sacramento Kings!
The #10 pick is Kristaps Porzingis of the Dallas Mavericks!
The #11 pick is Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz!
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 01:48:44 PM by RodyTur10 »
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #43 on: February 28, 2019, 10:20:59 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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1. D'Angelo Russell (Brooklyn Nets)
2. Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies)
3. Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics)
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #44 on: February 28, 2019, 10:23:09 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Another draft announcement:

The #12 pick is Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Memphis Grizzlies!
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 01:50:27 PM by RodyTur10 »
George Carlin — 'That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.'

 

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