Author Topic: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018  (Read 3500 times)

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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2019, 09:45:49 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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Doncic
Towns
Tatum

This is my 2nd vote for these 3 guys.  I have Fox + probably Simmons rounding out the top 5. 
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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2019, 11:33:02 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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Doncic
Towns
Tatum
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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2019, 11:55:27 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I agree that it's

1. Luka
2. Towns
3. Tatum


Simmons, Jaren Jackson, Fox, Booker are some of the names that would follow for me, I think.
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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2019, 12:48:34 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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1. Doncic
2. Tatum
3. Towns

I thing Tatum will still end up better than Towns.  Had Simmons next in line at 4 -- he'd be higher if he could shoot from outside 10 feet.

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2019, 01:08:53 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Thanks everybody for your participation. TP's for everyone!

And now the first five picks have been decided!

The #1 pick is Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks!
The #2 pick is Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves!
The #3 pick is Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics!
The #4 pick is De'Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings!
The #5 pick is Ben Simmons of the Philadelphia 76ers!

In the updated OP you can see the players that have been drafted, the current vote standings and the number of votes required. Current standings (next player to be drafted needs 5 votes):

Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) 2
Kristaps Porzingis (Dallas Mavericks) 1
Lauri Markkanen (Chicago Bulls) 1
Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns) 1
Marvin Bagley (Sacramento Kings) 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies) 1

It's a good idea to name your next players you want to vote for in case your vote forfeits. In this case Doncic had the required 10 votes and then immediately Towns had the required 8 votes, therefore I took the next player in the post:

Moranis: vote for Towns => vote for Bagley (I took the liberty to pick this vote, since other posters just had a top 3)

smokeablount: vote for Doncic => vote for Fox
smokeablount: vote for Towns => vote for Simmons

PhoSita: vote for Doncic => vote for Simmons
PhoSita: vote for Towns => vote for Jaren Jackson

slamtheking: vote for Doncic => vote for Simmons
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 01:27:42 PM by RodyTur10 »
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Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2019, 01:44:42 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I hit the first 5 on the head in order but these next 3 are pretty tough, lots of options.  I'd say Devin Booker is the only really clear choice.

6. Booker
7. Donovan Mitchell
8. Lauri Markannen

Next 3 to receive votes (informal choices):

9) Jaren Jackson Jr
10) Ayton
11) John Collins

EDIT - Made a change.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 01:59:03 PM by smokeablount »
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2019, 02:08:57 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison). 
Historical Draft - Portland Trailblazers
PG - Magic Johnson, Tony Parker
SG - Clyde Drexler, Dennis Johnson, Alvin Robertson
SF - James Worthy, Alex English
PF - Charles Barkley, Ben Wallace
C - Moses Malone, George Mikan, Brad Daugherty

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2019, 02:52:14 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison).

I probably have Ayton too low, he could really be as high as #7 or so... but 18-19 year old 7 footers who've flashed the ability to score at all 3 levels in the NBA already- and can nail 3's efficiently at volume, rebound & protect the rim passably- are elite prospects in 2019's NBA.  That's why I have LM & JJJ higher, but Ayton could easily be better.

I also disagree about Booker.  He's one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, has no discernible offensive weakness and is only 22.  I think his D could improve over time and I'm certain his advanced metrics will when his teammates get better.  The Suns also stink at developing talent so he probably still has plenty of upside.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 03:21:25 PM by smokeablount »
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2019, 03:31:05 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison).

I probably have Ayton too low, he could really be as high as #7 or so... but 18-19 year old 7 footers who've flashed the ability to score at all 3 levels in the NBA already- and can nail 3's efficiently at volume, rebound & protect the rim passably- are elite prospects in 2019's NBA.  That's why I have LM & JJJ higher, but Ayton could easily be better.

I also disagree about Booker.  He's one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, has no discernible offensive weakness and is only 22.  I think his D could improve over time and I'm certain his advanced metrics will when his teammates get better.  The Suns also stink at developing talent so he probably still has plenty of upside.
Booker is a mediocre shooter at just 32.6% from 3 and as result his TS% is just 57%.  He turns the ball over a ton as well (and he keeps getting worse at that).  He is a good passer and rebounder for his size and position and he has improved his 2PT% a great deal, but his 3 PT% is bad this year and has regressed.  Maybe it is a fluke or maybe it isn't.  And in 4 years Booker has shown no improvement at all defensively.  He hasn't shown the ability to be an even average defender.  Booker is vastly becoming an inefficient gunner.  he is still young, but there is no way I'd take Booker over Ayton (assuming the exact same contracts).  None at all. 
Historical Draft - Portland Trailblazers
PG - Magic Johnson, Tony Parker
SG - Clyde Drexler, Dennis Johnson, Alvin Robertson
SF - James Worthy, Alex English
PF - Charles Barkley, Ben Wallace
C - Moses Malone, George Mikan, Brad Daugherty

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2019, 03:49:04 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison).

I probably have Ayton too low, he could really be as high as #7 or so... but 18-19 year old 7 footers who've flashed the ability to score at all 3 levels in the NBA already- and can nail 3's efficiently at volume, rebound & protect the rim passably- are elite prospects in 2019's NBA.  That's why I have LM & JJJ higher, but Ayton could easily be better.

I also disagree about Booker.  He's one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, has no discernible offensive weakness and is only 22.  I think his D could improve over time and I'm certain his advanced metrics will when his teammates get better.  The Suns also stink at developing talent so he probably still has plenty of upside.
Booker is a mediocre shooter at just 32.6% from 3 and as result his TS% is just 57%.  He turns the ball over a ton as well (and he keeps getting worse at that).  He is a good passer and rebounder for his size and position and he has improved his 2PT% a great deal, but his 3 PT% is bad this year and has regressed.  Maybe it is a fluke or maybe it isn't.  And in 4 years Booker has shown no improvement at all defensively.  He hasn't shown the ability to be an even average defender.  Booker is vastly becoming an inefficient gunner.  he is still young, but there is no way I'd take Booker over Ayton (assuming the exact same contracts).  None at all.

Look, I think Ayton could certainly end up better.  I've already admitted I could've put him as high as 7th, behind either Booker or Mitchell.  But I think those 2 guys are already really close to becoming top 5 SGs in the NBA already by age 22 (Beal, Klay, Oladipo, DeRozan are ahead, and I likely forgot 1-2 guys, think Harden's a PG).  When you have someone that can score close to 25 ppg at age 22, that's a really rare thing.  You can build an offense around that, and get a few defenders to put around them.  They can also pass very well, and rebound.

If this was 10 years ago I'd put Ayton in the top 3-5, but he needs to adapt his game some to reach his potential. 

And about Booker:

1) Cherry picking his 3pt% this year is cute, but he shot 36.3% on 5.2 attempts at age 20 and 38.3% on 7.1 attempts at age 21.  He also takes insanely difficult shots- deep 3's, Curry-esque 3's off the dribble, etc.  If he had Marcus Smart's shot selection I'm quite confident he'd be over 40%.  He won the 3 point shoot out 2 years ago and this year he missed the finals by one 3, still hitting a very high amount.  He is a legitimate 3 point shooter.

2) His TOs are high and may have gone up every year, but his assist to TO ratio has gone up the past 3 years.  They have made him play out of position at PG and he's turning it over more, but putting up 7 assists a game.  He takes very difficult shots and has to do a ton for a poorly run team filled with mediocre teenagers (cough Bender).  This drags his numbers down.  When you watch him play it's clear that he's as close to Kyrie as any 22 year old alive.

3) He doesn't play defense, but it's hard to because he is the offense for the entire Suns team.  Put some competent scorers around him to relieve the burden and maybe he can put more effort into D and experience the Kyrie effect.  Put some good defenders around him to mask his deficiencies.  Either way, he's top 12-13 in the NBA in both scoring & assists at age 22.  He's an elite talent among elite talents, and picks #6-10 are highly debatable to begin with. 
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 03:58:21 PM by smokeablount »
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2019, 04:35:12 PM »

Offline Moranis

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The Suns have 3 other plus scorers on the team (Warren, Ayton, Oubre), yet it hasn't made Booker even attempt to play defense.  And defense is the Suns real issue, especially defense from the backcourt, as opposing guards have a field day when they play the Suns.
Historical Draft - Portland Trailblazers
PG - Magic Johnson, Tony Parker
SG - Clyde Drexler, Dennis Johnson, Alvin Robertson
SF - James Worthy, Alex English
PF - Charles Barkley, Ben Wallace
C - Moses Malone, George Mikan, Brad Daugherty

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2019, 05:00:17 PM »

Offline action781

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My next votes:
6. Devin Booker
7. Deandre Ayton
8. Marvin Bagley
------
9. John Collins
10. Lauri Markannen
2019 CS Historical Draft Utah Jazz
Starters: Joe Dumars, Michael Jordan, Chris Mullin, Dennis Rodman, Bill Walton
Bench: Derrick Rose, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala Bob Pettit, Wes Unseld
Picks: 11(4), 12(9)

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2019, 05:09:32 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Porzingis (assuming healthy)
Ayton
Jaren Jackson
---
Marvin Bagley
Lauri Markannen
Jaylen Brown
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 05:18:59 PM by mmmmm »
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2019, 05:13:10 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison).

I probably have Ayton too low, he could really be as high as #7 or so... but 18-19 year old 7 footers who've flashed the ability to score at all 3 levels in the NBA already- and can nail 3's efficiently at volume, rebound & protect the rim passably- are elite prospects in 2019's NBA.  That's why I have LM & JJJ higher, but Ayton could easily be better.

I also disagree about Booker.  He's one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, has no discernible offensive weakness and is only 22.  I think his D could improve over time and I'm certain his advanced metrics will when his teammates get better.  The Suns also stink at developing talent so he probably still has plenty of upside.
Booker is a mediocre shooter at just 32.6% from 3 and as result his TS% is just 57%.  He turns the ball over a ton as well (and he keeps getting worse at that).  He is a good passer and rebounder for his size and position and he has improved his 2PT% a great deal, but his 3 PT% is bad this year and has regressed.  Maybe it is a fluke or maybe it isn't.  And in 4 years Booker has shown no improvement at all defensively.  He hasn't shown the ability to be an even average defender.  Booker is vastly becoming an inefficient gunner.  he is still young, but there is no way I'd take Booker over Ayton (assuming the exact same contracts).  None at all.

'Concur completely with you on this.  Booker is a good, decently efficient high-volume scorer.  But he is not an elite efficiency scorer and is a very poor basketball player in all other respects.   He is possibly the worse defender in the NBA.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.

Re: Re-draft of promising NBA youngsters drafts 2015-2018
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2019, 07:00:33 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I really think Ayton is getting overlooked in this.  His rookie year has been absolutely fabulous averaging 16.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, and about a block and steal in just under 31 mpg while shooting 58.8% from the field and 75.7% from the line (61.2 TS%).  He has 4.8 win shares on a team that has won only 12 games.  He has a positive OBPM and DBPM and a VORP of 1.2.  His rookie year compares quite favorably to Towns, yet I think Ayton has far more defensive potential than Towns has shown now in his 4th year.  I'd also much rather have Ayton than Booker who wouldn't know what defense was if it hit him in the face.   There are only 4 players that have played for the Suns this year whose ORTG is larger than his DRTG - Holmes, Ayton, Chandler, and Terry (chandler and terry played 9 combined games and 109 minutes total).  Booker, for example, has an ORTG 11 worse than his DRTG.  The Suns are worse per possession when Ayton is on the bench but are actually better when Booker is on the bench (and since they both start that is a reasonable enough comparison).

I probably have Ayton too low, he could really be as high as #7 or so... but 18-19 year old 7 footers who've flashed the ability to score at all 3 levels in the NBA already- and can nail 3's efficiently at volume, rebound & protect the rim passably- are elite prospects in 2019's NBA.  That's why I have LM & JJJ higher, but Ayton could easily be better.

I also disagree about Booker.  He's one of the best offensive players in the entire NBA, has no discernible offensive weakness and is only 22.  I think his D could improve over time and I'm certain his advanced metrics will when his teammates get better.  The Suns also stink at developing talent so he probably still has plenty of upside.
Booker is a mediocre shooter at just 32.6% from 3 and as result his TS% is just 57%.  He turns the ball over a ton as well (and he keeps getting worse at that).  He is a good passer and rebounder for his size and position and he has improved his 2PT% a great deal, but his 3 PT% is bad this year and has regressed.  Maybe it is a fluke or maybe it isn't.  And in 4 years Booker has shown no improvement at all defensively.  He hasn't shown the ability to be an even average defender.  Booker is vastly becoming an inefficient gunner.  he is still young, but there is no way I'd take Booker over Ayton (assuming the exact same contracts).  None at all.

'Concur completely with you on this.  Booker is a good, decently efficient high-volume scorer.  But he is not an elite efficiency scorer and is a very poor basketball player in all other respects.   He is possibly the worse defender in the NBA.

That's why he's going in the 6-10 range.  He is a very good passer and a solid rebounder.  If he were a good defender I believe he would be as valuable as Tatum playing for a competent franchise, but at 22 and in a redraft situation, you gamble on turning his defense around and take a player that is top 12-13 in scoring and assists at age 22.

Booker, Towns, Simmons, Mitchell, Tatum & Doncic are proven guys, and Markannen, Fox & Ayton just need to not have major letdown years next year to say the same.  That's why they're at/near the top of my draft. 
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 07:07:07 PM by smokeablount »
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

 

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