Author Topic: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep  (Read 371 times)

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When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« on: November 19, 2018, 10:31:21 PM »

Offline action781

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In 19 games where Marcus hits four or more 3-pointers in his pro career, the Celtics have a record of 4-15.  In each of those 19 games he not only drills a few, but also shoots a respectable percent -- over 40% from beyond the arc in each of them.

I've been mentally noting this for a while and decided to dig into the stats and find out.  Crazy stat, huh?

Tried googling it to see if this was already out there, but haven't seen it.  Just this article and a similar one about a year ago.  http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21589757/nba-more-bricks-better-marcus-smart-celtics

I can't get over how odd this is.
2018 Mock Trade Deadline Philly 76ers

Guards:  A Bradley / Covington / Redick / Fultz / Bayless / Luwawu / Korkmaz
Forwards:  Saric / Simmons (point forward) / Trev Booker / J Anderson
Center:  Embiid / THE BOBAN / R Holmes

Picks: 2018 LAL 1st (if 1, 6-30), 2019 SAC 1st (if LAL 2-5), 2018 2nds from BKN, NYK, HOU, and 2019 SAC 2n

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2018, 10:38:08 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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In 19 games where Marcus hits four or more 3-pointers in his pro career, the Celtics have a record of 4-15.  In each of those 19 games he not only drills a few, but also shoots a respectable percent -- over 40% from beyond the arc in each of them.

I've been mentally noting this for a while and decided to dig into the stats and find out.  Crazy stat, huh?

Tried googling it to see if this was already out there, but haven't seen it.  Just this article and a similar one about a year ago.  http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21589757/nba-more-bricks-better-marcus-smart-celtics

I can't get over how odd this is.


Marcus is a bad shooter, but he is also streaky. When he hits a few to start a game he often takes more and because he is streaky can make them. As for why we lose, its because the very fact that Marcus Smart is getting threes up means that whatever we were doing offensively probably wasn't working all that well. If it was, Smart isn't taking a lot of threes.   

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2018, 10:54:53 PM »

Offline action781

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In 19 games where Marcus hits four or more 3-pointers in his pro career, the Celtics have a record of 4-15.  In each of those 19 games he not only drills a few, but also shoots a respectable percent -- over 40% from beyond the arc in each of them.

I've been mentally noting this for a while and decided to dig into the stats and find out.  Crazy stat, huh?

Tried googling it to see if this was already out there, but haven't seen it.  Just this article and a similar one about a year ago.  http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21589757/nba-more-bricks-better-marcus-smart-celtics

I can't get over how odd this is.


Marcus is a bad shooter, but he is also streaky. When he hits a few to start a game he often takes more and because he is streaky can make them. As for why we lose, its because the very fact that Marcus Smart is getting threes up means that whatever we were doing offensively probably wasn't working all that well. If it was, Smart isn't taking a lot of threes.

It's not about taking a lot of threes though -- its specifically about making them. 

For example, consider last season all the games in which Smart attempted 7 of more 3s.  Check out his shooting percentages in those games and the result:

6/12 - loss
2/11 - win
4/10 - loss
5/9 - loss
6/9 - loss
3/8 - loss
3/7 loss
1/7 - win
1/7 - win
0/7 - win

We won whenever he shot poorly and lost every time he shot respectable or well.
2018 Mock Trade Deadline Philly 76ers

Guards:  A Bradley / Covington / Redick / Fultz / Bayless / Luwawu / Korkmaz
Forwards:  Saric / Simmons (point forward) / Trev Booker / J Anderson
Center:  Embiid / THE BOBAN / R Holmes

Picks: 2018 LAL 1st (if 1, 6-30), 2019 SAC 1st (if LAL 2-5), 2018 2nds from BKN, NYK, HOU, and 2019 SAC 2n

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2018, 10:55:31 PM »

Offline action781

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Eh this all could just be random chance and an overreaction I suppose.  I just found it odd.   Maybe something to check back on down the road though.
2018 Mock Trade Deadline Philly 76ers

Guards:  A Bradley / Covington / Redick / Fultz / Bayless / Luwawu / Korkmaz
Forwards:  Saric / Simmons (point forward) / Trev Booker / J Anderson
Center:  Embiid / THE BOBAN / R Holmes

Picks: 2018 LAL 1st (if 1, 6-30), 2019 SAC 1st (if LAL 2-5), 2018 2nds from BKN, NYK, HOU, and 2019 SAC 2n

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2018, 12:17:32 AM »

Offline moiso

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It is pretty interesting.  Smart's shot selection seems much better this year so lets see if this stat holds up.

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2018, 04:41:15 AM »

Offline JSD

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The good shooting gives him irrational confidence down the stretch maybe? I'd be curious how Smart shoots in the 1st half verse the 2nd half in the sample size you provided. Very interesting. TP

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2018, 05:04:42 AM »

Online Who

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He seems to step up and knock down shots when the rest of the team is playing badly.

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2018, 06:41:56 AM »

Online Celtics4ever

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Quote
I can't get over how odd this is.

It just coincidence.

Quote
He seems to step up and knock down shots when the rest of the team is playing badly.


Agree, TP

Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2018, 01:49:08 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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In 19 games where Marcus hits four or more 3-pointers in his pro career, the Celtics have a record of 4-15.  In each of those 19 games he not only drills a few, but also shoots a respectable percent -- over 40% from beyond the arc in each of them.

...

I can't get over how odd this is.

I think the only thing we can really interpret from this data is something that we all already know: that Marcus Smart's contribution to winning has little to do with his scoring, and especially not his sharpshooting.  I know that's very broad, but that is a conclusion I can draw from the data.
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Re: When Marcus Smart shoots well from deep
« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2018, 03:50:59 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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He seems to step up and knock down shots when the rest of the team is playing badly.

my thoughts too, fueling comebacks.

 

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