Author Topic: Our three point shooting is way down from last year  (Read 1227 times)

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Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« on: November 19, 2018, 10:29:02 PM »

Offline Chris22

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Horford shot 42% last year. This year 30%.
Brown shot 39% last year. This year 27%.
Rozier shot 38% last year. This year 33%.
Tatum shot 43% last year. This year 39%.
Smart shot 30% last year. This year 25%.
Hayward has gone from 39% his last year in Utah to 29%.

How do we fix this?

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2018, 10:32:59 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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The big problem as I see it is this. Nobody is driving to the rim. So instead we pass the ball around the perimeter and take a shot without cuasing any panic, movement or reaction from the defense. These threes are easier to defend. I think the guys shooting very low like Brown will shoot better, small sample size is still a thing. The difference between 28% (awful) and 39%(great) is like 7-8 makes right now. But overall as long as we shoot threes off stagnant offense we will shoot less than our talent would indicate we should.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2018, 10:33:18 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Bench Hayward and start Baynes to give them the shots they need.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2018, 10:36:17 PM »

Offline Chris22

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Start Baynes and drive to the hoop. Sounds good.

I would add go backdoor from the corner.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2018, 10:36:42 PM »

Offline action781

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-I think Horford's will turn around. 
-Brown I think shot better than he really is last season and his true % is probably somewhere in the middle around 35%. 
-Rozier and Tatum I also thought shot a bit better last year than their true %.
-Smart's difference is insignificant.
-Hayward just has to get comfortable which will take time.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2018, 12:43:51 AM »

Offline ozgod

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The big problem as I see it is this. Nobody is driving to the rim. So instead we pass the ball around the perimeter and take a shot without cuasing any panic, movement or reaction from the defense. These threes are easier to defend. I think the guys shooting very low like Brown will shoot better, small sample size is still a thing. The difference between 28% (awful) and 39%(great) is like 7-8 makes right now. But overall as long as we shoot threes off stagnant offense we will shoot less than our talent would indicate we should.

It's not just that though. We're missing open looks. We lead the league in open looks missed, be it from 2 or 3. Here are the stats per player:

Code: [Select]
PLAYER TEAM GP FREQ FGM FGA FG% EFG% 2FGFREQ 2FGM 2FGA 2FG% 3FGFREQ 3PM 3PA 3P%

Marcus Morris BOS 15 39.3% 1.9 3.9 47.5 61.9 17.3% 0.7 1.7 42.3 22.0% 1.1 2.2 51.5
Brad Wanamaker BOS 4 50.0% 0.5 1.3 40.0 50.0 30.0% 0.3 0.8 33.3 20.0% 0.3 0.5 50.0
Kyrie Irving BOS 15 36.7% 2.9 6.1 47.8 57.1 19.1% 1.8 3.2 56.3 17.5% 1.1 2.9 38.6
Jayson Tatum BOS 16 36.8% 1.8 4.8 36.4 46.1 18.2% 0.8 2.4 34.2 18.7% 0.9 2.4 38.5
Terry Rozier BOS 16 35.3% 1.1 2.9 36.2 44.7 18.0% 0.6 1.5 37.5 17.3% 0.5 1.4 34.8
Al Horford BOS 16 20.9% 0.8 2.1 36.4 39.4 17.1% 0.6 1.7 37.0 3.8% 0.1 0.4 33.3
Guer. Yabusele BOS 9 23.1% 0.1 0.3 33.3 50.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 - 23.1% 0.1 0.3 33.3
Jaylen Brown BOS 15 27.2% 1.1 3.1 36.2 46.8 9.2% 0.5 1.1 43.8 17.9% 0.7 2.1 32.3
Gordon Hayward BOS 15 32.8% 0.9 2.9 31.8 35.2 20.9% 0.7 1.9 39.3 11.9% 0.2 1.1 18.8
Marcus Smart BOS 16 39.5% 0.5 1.9 26.7 31.7 11.8% 0.3 0.6 55.6 27.6% 0.2 1.3 14.3
Aron Baynes BOS 13 12.1% 0.2 0.5 42.9 42.9 10.3% 0.2 0.5 50.0 1.7% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Semi Ojeleye BOS 11 15.0% 0.1 0.3 33.3 33.3 5.0% 0.1 0.1 100 10.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0
Daniel Theis BOS 8 17.9% 0.3 0.6 40.0 40.0 17.9% 0.3 0.6 40.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 -

We have 3 starters (Horford, Brown, Hayward) and 3 rotation players (Rozier, Smart, Baynes) who are all averaging below 35% on open threes where the closest defender was from 4-6 feet. Gordon and Smart are below 20%  :o

Then we have 4 players (Tatum, Rozier, Brown, Hayward) shooting below 40% on open 2s from 4-6 feet.

It's a mystery why they're missing so many open looks I'm sure it's all mental. They didn't all become Markelle Fultz's overnight.
Any odd typos are because I suck at typing on an iPhone :D

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2018, 12:54:40 AM »

Offline Chris22

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The big problem as I see it is this. Nobody is driving to the rim. So instead we pass the ball around the perimeter and take a shot without cuasing any panic, movement or reaction from the defense. These threes are easier to defend. I think the guys shooting very low like Brown will shoot better, small sample size is still a thing. The difference between 28% (awful) and 39%(great) is like 7-8 makes right now. But overall as long as we shoot threes off stagnant offense we will shoot less than our talent would indicate we should.

It's not just that though. We're missing open looks. We lead the league in open looks missed, be it from 2 or 3. Here are the stats per player:

Code: [Select]
PLAYER TEAM GP FREQ FGM FGA FG% EFG% 2FGFREQ 2FGM 2FGA 2FG% 3FGFREQ 3PM 3PA 3P%

Marcus Morris BOS 15 39.3% 1.9 3.9 47.5 61.9 17.3% 0.7 1.7 42.3 22.0% 1.1 2.2 51.5
Brad Wanamaker BOS 4 50.0% 0.5 1.3 40.0 50.0 30.0% 0.3 0.8 33.3 20.0% 0.3 0.5 50.0
Kyrie Irving BOS 15 36.7% 2.9 6.1 47.8 57.1 19.1% 1.8 3.2 56.3 17.5% 1.1 2.9 38.6
Jayson Tatum BOS 16 36.8% 1.8 4.8 36.4 46.1 18.2% 0.8 2.4 34.2 18.7% 0.9 2.4 38.5
Terry Rozier BOS 16 35.3% 1.1 2.9 36.2 44.7 18.0% 0.6 1.5 37.5 17.3% 0.5 1.4 34.8
Al Horford BOS 16 20.9% 0.8 2.1 36.4 39.4 17.1% 0.6 1.7 37.0 3.8% 0.1 0.4 33.3
Guer. Yabusele BOS 9 23.1% 0.1 0.3 33.3 50.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 - 23.1% 0.1 0.3 33.3
Jaylen Brown BOS 15 27.2% 1.1 3.1 36.2 46.8 9.2% 0.5 1.1 43.8 17.9% 0.7 2.1 32.3
Gordon Hayward BOS 15 32.8% 0.9 2.9 31.8 35.2 20.9% 0.7 1.9 39.3 11.9% 0.2 1.1 18.8
Marcus Smart BOS 16 39.5% 0.5 1.9 26.7 31.7 11.8% 0.3 0.6 55.6 27.6% 0.2 1.3 14.3
Aron Baynes BOS 13 12.1% 0.2 0.5 42.9 42.9 10.3% 0.2 0.5 50.0 1.7% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Semi Ojeleye BOS 11 15.0% 0.1 0.3 33.3 33.3 5.0% 0.1 0.1 100 10.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0
Daniel Theis BOS 8 17.9% 0.3 0.6 40.0 40.0 17.9% 0.3 0.6 40.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 -

We have 3 starters (Horford, Brown, Hayward) and 3 rotation players (Rozier, Smart, Baynes) who are all averaging below 35% on open threes where the closest defender was from 4-6 feet. Gordon and Smart are below 20%  :o

Then we have 4 players (Tatum, Rozier, Brown, Hayward) shooting below 40% on open 2s from 4-6 feet.

It's a mystery why they're missing so many open looks I'm sure it's all mental. They didn't all become Markelle Fultz's overnight.

TP for going deep with this.
And yes, it is a mystery.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2018, 01:09:34 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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The big problem as I see it is this. Nobody is driving to the rim. So instead we pass the ball around the perimeter and take a shot without cuasing any panic, movement or reaction from the defense. These threes are easier to defend. I think the guys shooting very low like Brown will shoot better, small sample size is still a thing. The difference between 28% (awful) and 39%(great) is like 7-8 makes right now. But overall as long as we shoot threes off stagnant offense we will shoot less than our talent would indicate we should.
I see sort of the opposite problem.  When guys drive and kick, we have so few guys willing to step into and take the three.  Iíve seen way too many possessions where we drive and drive, drive and kick, and drive and kick multiple times.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2018, 02:39:26 AM »

Online knuckleballer

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The big problem as I see it is this. Nobody is driving to the rim. So instead we pass the ball around the perimeter and take a shot without cuasing any panic, movement or reaction from the defense. These threes are easier to defend. I think the guys shooting very low like Brown will shoot better, small sample size is still a thing. The difference between 28% (awful) and 39%(great) is like 7-8 makes right now. But overall as long as we shoot threes off stagnant offense we will shoot less than our talent would indicate we should.
I see sort of the opposite problem.  When guys drive and kick, we have so few guys willing to step into and take the three.  Iíve seen way too many possessions where we drive and drive, drive and kick, and drive and kick multiple times.

Yeah, I think this is a problem.  Guys aren't shooting or playing with confidence overall.  They aren't totally sure of their roles yet.  It's taking much longer than expected.  Hayward coming off the bench will help a lot.  We looked a lot better for most of the game last night regardless of the result.  It's a long season with plenty of time to figure it out.  It's been frustrating though.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2018, 05:05:27 AM »

Offline RockinRyA

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Horford shot 42% last year. This year 30%.
Brown shot 39% last year. This year 27%.
Rozier shot 38% last year. This year 33%.
Tatum shot 43% last year. This year 39%.
Smart shot 30% last year. This year 25%.
Hayward has gone from 39% his last year in Utah to 29%.

How do we fix this?

Go back to practicing in Waltham.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2018, 05:38:26 AM »

Offline 10610786d

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The big problem as I see it is this. Nobody is driving to the rim. So instead we pass the ball around the perimeter and take a shot without cuasing any panic, movement or reaction from the defense. These threes are easier to defend. I think the guys shooting very low like Brown will shoot better, small sample size is still a thing. The difference between 28% (awful) and 39%(great) is like 7-8 makes right now. But overall as long as we shoot threes off stagnant offense we will shoot less than our talent would indicate we should.

It's not just that though. We're missing open looks. We lead the league in open looks missed, be it from 2 or 3. Here are the stats per player:

Code: [Select]
PLAYER TEAM GP FREQ FGM FGA FG% EFG% 2FGFREQ 2FGM 2FGA 2FG% 3FGFREQ 3PM 3PA 3P%

Marcus Morris BOS 15 39.3% 1.9 3.9 47.5 61.9 17.3% 0.7 1.7 42.3 22.0% 1.1 2.2 51.5
Brad Wanamaker BOS 4 50.0% 0.5 1.3 40.0 50.0 30.0% 0.3 0.8 33.3 20.0% 0.3 0.5 50.0
Kyrie Irving BOS 15 36.7% 2.9 6.1 47.8 57.1 19.1% 1.8 3.2 56.3 17.5% 1.1 2.9 38.6
Jayson Tatum BOS 16 36.8% 1.8 4.8 36.4 46.1 18.2% 0.8 2.4 34.2 18.7% 0.9 2.4 38.5
Terry Rozier BOS 16 35.3% 1.1 2.9 36.2 44.7 18.0% 0.6 1.5 37.5 17.3% 0.5 1.4 34.8
Al Horford BOS 16 20.9% 0.8 2.1 36.4 39.4 17.1% 0.6 1.7 37.0 3.8% 0.1 0.4 33.3
Guer. Yabusele BOS 9 23.1% 0.1 0.3 33.3 50.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 - 23.1% 0.1 0.3 33.3
Jaylen Brown BOS 15 27.2% 1.1 3.1 36.2 46.8 9.2% 0.5 1.1 43.8 17.9% 0.7 2.1 32.3
Gordon Hayward BOS 15 32.8% 0.9 2.9 31.8 35.2 20.9% 0.7 1.9 39.3 11.9% 0.2 1.1 18.8
Marcus Smart BOS 16 39.5% 0.5 1.9 26.7 31.7 11.8% 0.3 0.6 55.6 27.6% 0.2 1.3 14.3
Aron Baynes BOS 13 12.1% 0.2 0.5 42.9 42.9 10.3% 0.2 0.5 50.0 1.7% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Semi Ojeleye BOS 11 15.0% 0.1 0.3 33.3 33.3 5.0% 0.1 0.1 100 10.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0
Daniel Theis BOS 8 17.9% 0.3 0.6 40.0 40.0 17.9% 0.3 0.6 40.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 -

We have 3 starters (Horford, Brown, Hayward) and 3 rotation players (Rozier, Smart, Baynes) who are all averaging below 35% on open threes where the closest defender was from 4-6 feet. Gordon and Smart are below 20%  :o

Then we have 4 players (Tatum, Rozier, Brown, Hayward) shooting below 40% on open 2s from 4-6 feet.

It's a mystery why they're missing so many open looks I'm sure it's all mental. They didn't all become Markelle Fultz's overnight.

When I play basketball and hesitate, I tend to shoot (even more) poorly. Probably the same thing with the team - hesitating because they don't know whether they want to shoot or pass, and aren't expecting the ball because they're still a very new team.

But as a trash basketball player who plays with other desk jockeys, I have very little confidence in my basketball ability and this might not really apply to literally one of the top 3 teams in the NBA in terms of talent.

The big problem as I see it is this. Nobody is driving to the rim. So instead we pass the ball around the perimeter and take a shot without cuasing any panic, movement or reaction from the defense. These threes are easier to defend. I think the guys shooting very low like Brown will shoot better, small sample size is still a thing. The difference between 28% (awful) and 39%(great) is like 7-8 makes right now. But overall as long as we shoot threes off stagnant offense we will shoot less than our talent would indicate we should.

At a certain point, defenses collapse if you don't shoot. I think Stevens wants to make sure people are making a habit of taking open looks, rather than driving and ruining spacing.

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2018, 05:54:08 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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Horford shot 42% last year. This year 30%.
Brown shot 39% last year. This year 27%.
Rozier shot 38% last year. This year 33%.
Tatum shot 43% last year. This year 39%.
Smart shot 30% last year. This year 25%.
Hayward has gone from 39% his last year in Utah to 29%.

How do we fix this?

Go back to practicing in Waltham.

Lol
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And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

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Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2018, 06:53:42 AM »

Offline Green-18

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At this point the three point shooting issues can be attributed to Horford, Jaylen, and Hayward.  I expect Horford to settle in at 35%, which is in line with 2016..  Over 40% might be a bit much to expect from Al on a yearly basis.

The Jaylen and Hayward dynamic is concerning to say the least.  If one of them can find their groove then this team should begin to flourish.  The 19 minutes for Jaylen was very odd last night, especially given that he was playing with great confidence.  I'm starting to wonder if Brad played him less due to effort/focus issues in prior games?  Assuming there's no issue with Jaylen's attitude, I think it might be best for Gordon's minutes to scale back to the low 20's.  There will be plenty of opportunity to play him in crunch time towards the end of the season.  Right now I'd like to see last years group find their mojo. 


Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2018, 07:36:14 AM »

Offline Redz

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Horford shot 42% last year. This year 30%.
Brown shot 39% last year. This year 27%.
Rozier shot 38% last year. This year 33%.
Tatum shot 43% last year. This year 39%.
Smart shot 30% last year. This year 25%.
Hayward has gone from 39% his last year in Utah to 29%.

How do we fix this?

Not that it changes the main point, but Smart is up to 30.2% after last night's binge.  The stats are still very malleable.

2017 PAPOUG CHAMPION

Re: Our three point shooting is way down from last year
« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2018, 08:46:31 AM »

Offline jbpats

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It's down because last year we were moving the ball with ease and getting open looks, constantly catching defenses on their heels.

This year everyone is shooting contested three's and playing hero ball.

 

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