I guess the re-draft probably looks something like this (I don't want to labour the point, just to say that he probably goes lower than 5 - but that seems fine considering you always have 3 or 4 late first/second rounders who come out of nowhere)..
I guess my feeling is that with rookies, because of the contract scale, notwithstanding bad extensions (ahem, Andrew Wiggins), as long as your high draft pick still goes somewhere in the same range, I think we should call it a hit.
If you look purely at first deal after 4th year, it looks like this
(Note: Bogdanovic, Saric, Capela have not been included. Suffice to say that Bogdanovic and Saric will get a higher % increase than Smart did, when they are due up to get paid. I think we can safely say that someone will throw more than Marcus-money at Capela, but maybe not). Also, you need to take into account that the Parker and LaVine deals were unnaturally inflated, possibly the Wiggins deal too, but for the sake of argument, we can say that the market thinks Marcus is somewhere in the 10th-13th best player in that draft.. so is he still a hit pick?
My feeling is that he definitely is because my working theory is that as long as a high draft pick is not a bust, then he is a hit. What's your take?