SI - 5 Buyer Beware Free Agents (Smart is the first one)

[Moranis]

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/27/nba-free-agency-buyer-beware-chris-paul-marcus-smart-isaiah-thomas

Smart, Paul, Nurkic, Thomas, and Rondo - so a current Celtic and 2 former Celtics on the list of 5

Marcus Smart

How in the world do you assess Marcus Smart’s value? More likely than not, someone on your team already hates him. The Celtics’ offense and defense were better with Smart on the court, both during the regular season and the playoffs. But Smart is a career 36% shooter from the field, and an even more concerning 29.3% shooter from three, where he still launches over four shots per-game.

Beyond all of that, Smart has played his entire career for the Bhagwan, Brad Stevens, whose cult-leader-like powers allow him to wring every last drop of utility out of every player on his roster. Here’s what it comes down to with Smart: He is a good player! His combination of defense, effort, and, uh, creativity have been a positive for the Celtics.

The risk is bringing him, placing him in a bigger role and asking for more production. It’s not a given that Smart would fail at something like that. But it is ultimately risky to pay someone who can’t quite shoot a huge sum of money in the modern NBA. I would also be terrified of basically taking anyone short of a star out of Boston, because that seemingly always seems to work out in Stevens’ favor. Smart has good value, it will be imperative that the team who eventually signs him doesn’t ask him to do too much.

[saltlover]

That’s right, Sports Illustrated.  Scare away the competition!

[JBcat]

That’s right, Sports Illustrated.  Scare away the competition!

Yep!  I hope we bring him back.

[dreamgreen]

That article is overly kind IMO they forgot to mention untimely turnovers and fouls!

[Monkhouse]

Only good thing SI has released in a while. Thanks, keep bringing down his value.

[mef730]

Interesting how 3 of the 5 are either current or former Celtics players.

Mike

[timpiker]

Good article - thanks.  Writer sure seems to be fixated on the C's.  The "Brad-effect" is mentioned, too.  But, many of the points are true.  Glad I don't have to make the decisions.

[DooVoo]

Basically it's the Evan Turner effect. Stevens used Turner perfectly and he played the best ball of his career. Since he left his numbers aren't THAT different. Everything is trending down but they are pretty similar. But check the VORP(Value Over Replacement Player). In Boston it was 0.6 in 2015 and 0.8 in 2016. With Portland it has been 0.1 and -0.3 the last two years. His entire career was also pretty much in the negative other than two seasons in Boston.

Look at Smart's VORPs under Stevens. 1.4, 1.1, 1.0, 0.6. The fear is that Smart will simply not be as effective a player away from Stevens even if he puts up similar or better numbers. That is why he is a total buyer beware for any other team.

[Phantom255x]

With Thaddeus Young opting in, the Pacers now have about ~20M left in cap space.

I'd find it hard to believe they use all of it in an offer to Smart, but 14-16M/Year is not out of the question IMO. Hopefully though we can keep Smart at 10-12M/Year (or if the market is truly bad for him and IND decides to go elsewhere, he signs the QO).

[nickagneta]

With Thaddeus Young opting in, the Pacers now have about ~20M left in cap space.

I'd find it hard to believe they use all of it in an offer to Smart, but 14-16M/Year is not out of the question IMO. Hopefully though we can keep Smart at 10-12M/Year (or if the market is truly bad for him and IND decides to go elsewhere, he signs the QO).

Thought I read that Indy is interested in Aaron Gordon and that's who they are willing to use up that cap space on

[GreenWarrior]

the whole problem with Smart is where he was drafted, if he was drafted at 20 he'd be considered a steal and an underrated player. instead he was drafted high and is viewed as overrated or not worth big money.

not Smarts' fault, really the problem starts at the scouts and the genius's in the media who rank these rookies. look at Darko Milicic, the dude filled the stat sheet up but because he wasn't chris bosh or carmello he was considered a bust. when in reality he shouldn't have been drafted where he was.

i personally don't really follow college basketball i watch some march madness and tons of pre-draft shows leading up to the draft and everything i heard or saw on Smart told me he doesn't sound like a guy that's going to ever be an all star... maybe all defense some day. imo that sounded like a one dimensional player who probably shouldn't go that high.... and as i said my college player knowledge is limited.

so here we are trying to figure out Smarts' value. you look at his stats on a night to night basis and nothing stands out. and there in lies the problem people need to watch Smart play in order to value him. he certainly has his games where you wouldn't know he even played, but then he has another game where he makes one huge play that leads to a big win.

i guess  it all comes down to how much does someone value winning.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Not sure where else to put this info, but Pelton did an article on ESPN estimating how much 1 WARP would cost this summer, compared to other summers:

"As a group, my projections for this summer's free agents show them providing around 240 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2018-19. After factoring in the amount needed to fill out rosters with replacement-level players at the minimum salary, that leaves teams with about $1.75 million per WARP at the high end of projected spending, down to $1.15 million at the low end.

Naturally, this is a big change from recent seasons. Last summer, my projected cost of a win ranged from $2.7 million to $3.2 million and the actual figure ended up being $2.8 million. In the halcyon days of 2016, I projected a range between $3.3 million and $5 million per WARP before teams actually spent $3.8 million per WARP."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23940071/nba-free-agency-all-big-signings-wins

Pelton's system projects Smart's WARP at 18.3 over the next 3 years (total).

That means that Smart's contract would be projected to be 21-32 million over 3 years.

That means that his contract would be anywhere from 7-9 million a year for 3 years, or about the MLE.

[saltlover]

Not sure where else to put this info, but Pelton did an article on ESPN estimating how much 1 WARP would cost this summer, compared to other summers:

"As a group, my projections for this summer's free agents show them providing around 240 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2018-19. After factoring in the amount needed to fill out rosters with replacement-level players at the minimum salary, that leaves teams with about $1.75 million per WARP at the high end of projected spending, down to $1.15 million at the low end.

Naturally, this is a big change from recent seasons. Last summer, my projected cost of a win ranged from $2.7 million to $3.2 million and the actual figure ended up being $2.8 million. In the halcyon days of 2016, I projected a range between $3.3 million and $5 million per WARP before teams actually spent $3.8 million per WARP."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23940071/nba-free-agency-all-big-signings-wins

Pelton's system projects Smart's WARP at 18.3 over the next 3 years (total).

That means that Smart's contract would be projected to be 21-32 million over 3 years.

That means that his contract would be anywhere from 7-9 million a year for 3 years, or about the MLE.

Your math is slightly off.  That’d be $7-11 million a year.

[droopdog7]

the whole problem with Smart is where he was drafted, if he was drafted at 20 he'd be considered a steal and an underrated player. instead he was drafted high and is viewed as overrated or not worth big money.

not Smarts' fault, really the problem starts at the scouts and the genius's in the media who rank these rookies. look at Darko Milicic, the dude filled the stat sheet up but because he wasn't chris bosh or carmello he was considered a bust. when in reality he shouldn't have been drafted where he was.

i personally don't really follow college basketball i watch some march madness and tons of pre-draft shows leading up to the draft and everything i heard or saw on Smart told me he doesn't sound like a guy that's going to ever be an all star... maybe all defense some day. imo that sounded like a one dimensional player who probably shouldn't go that high.... and as i said my college player knowledge is limited.

so here we are trying to figure out Smarts' value. you look at his stats on a night to night basis and nothing stands out. and there in lies the problem people need to watch Smart play in order to value him. he certainly has his games where you wouldn't know he even played, but then he has another game where he makes one huge play that leads to a big win.

i guess  it all comes down to how much does someone value winning.

I don’t think his draft number factors in very much anymore.  For instance, our fans have mostly stopped expecting smart to become a star because he was drafted 6th.  His issue is that he’s a really bad offensive player regardless of draft position.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Not sure where else to put this info, but Pelton did an article on ESPN estimating how much 1 WARP would cost this summer, compared to other summers:

"As a group, my projections for this summer's free agents show them providing around 240 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2018-19. After factoring in the amount needed to fill out rosters with replacement-level players at the minimum salary, that leaves teams with about $1.75 million per WARP at the high end of projected spending, down to $1.15 million at the low end.

Naturally, this is a big change from recent seasons. Last summer, my projected cost of a win ranged from $2.7 million to $3.2 million and the actual figure ended up being $2.8 million. In the halcyon days of 2016, I projected a range between $3.3 million and $5 million per WARP before teams actually spent $3.8 million per WARP."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23940071/nba-free-agency-all-big-signings-wins

Pelton's system projects Smart's WARP at 18.3 over the next 3 years (total).

That means that Smart's contract would be projected to be 21-32 million over 3 years.

That means that his contract would be anywhere from 7-9 million a year for 3 years, or about the MLE.

Your math is slightly off.  That’d be $7-11 million a year.

Oops. Thanks for the correction.

Still an extremely manageable number.