Predicting summer roster moves (there will only be one Marcus)

[CFAN38]

I admit that I have some glaring holes in my NBA CBA knowledge but looking at the Lux tax and the Cs current roster have have 3 predictions for the Cs summer plans. Barring something crazy (ie Kawhi trade) I'm pretty confident the off-season plays out 1 of 3 ways.

1.
Sign
Smart for $11mill per for multiple years
Baynes to $5.2 for multiple years
Bird to a min contract around $1.3 mill

Trade
Morris (and likely Nader rather then just waiving him) to a team for a heavily protected 1st or multiple 2nds). One variable to this would be the Cs including Yabu in a deal in order to free up a additional $1.3mill for Smart and then retaining Nader or adding a vet min guy)

Roster stays at 14 players with two 2-way players (Allen and a play yet to be signed)

2.

Sign
FA for around 6mill using the MLE ( some players I could see targeted Joe Harris, Lance Stephenson, Marco Belinelli, long shot Avery Bradley) 
Baynes to $5.2 for multiple years
Bird to a min contract around $1.3 mill

Loose Smart as a UFA
Trade / release Nader

Roster 15 players with two 2-way players (Allen and a play yet to be signed)

3.

Sign
Smart  to 6.1 mill qualifying offer
Baynes to $5 for multiple years
Bird to a min contract around $1.3 mill

Trade / release Nader

Roster 15 players with two 2-way players (Allen and a play yet to be signed)

 


 

[smokeablount]

I admit that I have some glaring holes in my NBA CBA knowledge but looking at the Lux tax and the Cs current roster have have 3 predictions for the Cs summer plans. Barring something crazy (ie Kawhi trade) I'm pretty confident the off-season plays out 1 of 3 ways.

1.
Sign
Smart for $11mill per for multiple years
Baynes to $5.2 for multiple years
Bird to a min contract around $1.3 mill

Trade
Morris (and likely Nader rather then just waiving him) to a team for a heavily protected 1st or multiple 2nds). One variable to this would be the Cs including Yabu in a deal in order to free up a additional $1.3mill for Smart and then retaining Nader or adding a vet min guy)

Roster stays at 14 players with two 2-way players (Allen and a play yet to be signed)

2.

Sign
FA for around 6mill using the MLE ( some players I could see targeted Joe Harris, Lance Stephenson, Marco Belinelli, long shot Avery Bradley) 
Baynes to $5.2 for multiple years
Bird to a min contract around $1.3 mill

Loose Smart as a UFA
Trade / release Nader

Roster 15 players with two 2-way players (Allen and a play yet to be signed)

3.

Sign
Smart  to 6.1 mill qualifying offer
Baynes to $5 for multiple years
Bird to a min contract around $1.3 mill

Trade / release Nader

Roster 15 players with two 2-way players (Allen and a play yet to be signed)

 


 

#1 sounds good to me, followed by #3 since I want to re-sign Baynes, which sounds likely, and I don't want to let Smart walk.  But as far as Baynes & multiple years, 3 or even 2 sounds right.

[colincb]

I've been thinking it's one Marcus or the other for some time unless Smart goes for the QO. I don't think there's going to be much interest for Smart at a number we cannot match given how few teams have cap to spend. Some of the teams will lose out in the arms race (Sixers likely for example), but do they want to spend enough to deprive BOS of Smart? IOW, I think he's getting a lot less buzz around the NBA than in here. Teams would like to have him at a reasonable price, but that's it.

[CFAN38]

I've been thinking it's one Marcus or the other for some time unless Smart goes for the QO. I don't think there's going to be much interest for Smart at a number we cannot match given how few teams have cap to spend. Some of the teams will lose out in the arms race (Sixers likely for example), but do they want to spend enough to deprive BOS of Smart? IOW, I think he's getting a lot less buzz around the NBA than in here. Teams would like to have him at a reasonable price, but that's it.

I agree, I suspect that many of the teams interested in Smart do not have him on the top of their FA list. The teams I have seen mentioned are the Suns, Pacers, Bulls and Mavs. My questions would be:
 
Are the suns willing to start Smart at PG along side a sub 30% 3pt shooting wing in Josh Jackson?

Do the Bulls spend 12+ mill on a 3rd guard or is he option 2 if they loose Lavine?

Are the Mavs going to be able to play Smith and Smart together? (once again 3pt %)

The Pacers are the one team that I think really makes sense but I suspect that are hoping to land a bigger fish. I also would suspect better shooters like T Evans or W Barton may be higher on their list. 

There is also the fact that Smart being a RFA means the team will have to make an offer tieing up their $$ while the Celtics decide to match or not. For a team that really hopes to win this year having to wait on $12-$14mill while other player are being signed could be a scary proposition.

[Moranis]

I've been thinking it's one Marcus or the other for some time unless Smart goes for the QO. I don't think there's going to be much interest for Smart at a number we cannot match given how few teams have cap to spend. Some of the teams will lose out in the arms race (Sixers likely for example), but do they want to spend enough to deprive BOS of Smart? IOW, I think he's getting a lot less buzz around the NBA than in here. Teams would like to have him at a reasonable price, but that's it.

The Sixers could totally sign Smart to a massive 1 year contract and still have all their cap flexibility next summer.  It would mean they would lose Redick, but maybe he moves on early enough in the process for that to not be an issue for the Sixers.

[smokeablount]

I've been thinking it's one Marcus or the other for some time unless Smart goes for the QO. I don't think there's going to be much interest for Smart at a number we cannot match given how few teams have cap to spend. Some of the teams will lose out in the arms race (Sixers likely for example), but do they want to spend enough to deprive BOS of Smart? IOW, I think he's getting a lot less buzz around the NBA than in here. Teams would like to have him at a reasonable price, but that's it.

The Sixers could totally sign Smart to a massive 1 year contract and still have all their cap flexibility next summer.  It would mean they would lose Redick, but maybe he moves on early enough in the process for that to not be an issue for the Sixers.

Losing Smart would sting, but I can live with with Philly shooting themselves in the foot in '18 by building a roster where none of their 3 best ball handling players can shoot (BS, Smart, TJ McConnell).  Smart is good, but he doesn't pair with either non-shooting point guard.

[tstorey_97]

Thanks for the data, guys.

Smart's price  is a tough sign for another team.

My thought was always the "We need a guy like Smart on OUR team" GM's were just saying that
for appearance sake.

I will offer that a "young team" would benefit greatly from a player like Smart and coaches/GM's might find $11M for a player who can't produce offensively.

A team that has solid offensive punch could more easily justify the salary commanded by Smart.
A team with a coach who can exploit his strengths while relying on teammates who can score....oh wait a minute...I just described the team that should sign him.

Welcome back, Marcus.

[BitterJim]

I've been thinking it's one Marcus or the other for some time unless Smart goes for the QO. I don't think there's going to be much interest for Smart at a number we cannot match given how few teams have cap to spend. Some of the teams will lose out in the arms race (Sixers likely for example), but do they want to spend enough to deprive BOS of Smart? IOW, I think he's getting a lot less buzz around the NBA than in here. Teams would like to have him at a reasonable price, but that's it.

The Sixers could totally sign Smart to a massive 1 year contract and still have all their cap flexibility next summer.  It would mean they would lose Redick, but maybe he moves on early enough in the process for that to not be an issue for the Sixers.

Unless we revoke the QO and make Smart a RFA, Philly cannot sign him to a one year deal. The minimum length would be two fully guaranteed years (neither of them being an option year), which would take up Philly's cap space next summer

[colincb]

I've been thinking it's one Marcus or the other for some time unless Smart goes for the QO. I don't think there's going to be much interest for Smart at a number we cannot match given how few teams have cap to spend. Some of the teams will lose out in the arms race (Sixers likely for example), but do they want to spend enough to deprive BOS of Smart? IOW, I think he's getting a lot less buzz around the NBA than in here. Teams would like to have him at a reasonable price, but that's it.

The Sixers could totally sign Smart to a massive 1 year contract and still have all their cap flexibility next summer.  It would mean they would lose Redick, but maybe he moves on early enough in the process for that to not be an issue for the Sixers.

A) The 2019 FA class isn't looking too strong unless LBJ opts in before Saturday.
B) We'd be getting Irving and Hayward back and losing Smart. They'd be getting Smart  and losing Redick. We'll kick the Sixers butts.

[celticinorlando]

Think Boston resigns Baynes and Smart

Cuts loose Nadar and signs a shooter on the cheap

That is it.

[GreenEnvy]

I've been thinking it's one Marcus or the other for some time unless Smart goes for the QO. I don't think there's going to be much interest for Smart at a number we cannot match given how few teams have cap to spend. Some of the teams will lose out in the arms race (Sixers likely for example), but do they want to spend enough to deprive BOS of Smart? IOW, I think he's getting a lot less buzz around the NBA than in here. Teams would like to have him at a reasonable price, but that's it.

The Sixers could totally sign Smart to a massive 1 year contract and still have all their cap flexibility next summer.  It would mean they would lose Redick, but maybe he moves on early enough in the process for that to not be an issue for the Sixers.

Would they really want Smart over Redick? Seems like shooting and floor spacing is what they need more than a defensive-minded player. If they do that just to get him away from us, they may be shooting themselves in the foot.

[dreamgreen]

Smart could easily be back but no way in hell he's getting a $11m from the Celtics. I'm not sure what some of you guys are smoking but I would like some!

[Csfan1984]

Think Smart and Baynes move on for bigger money.
C's will sign a replacement Center. So roster will be the following with bold being main rotation.

PG-Irving, Rozier, Wanna
SG-Brown, Nader, Bird
SF-Hayward, Morris
PF-Tatum, Semi, Williams
C- Horford, Theis, TBD

[SHAQATTACK]

Think Boston resigns Baynes and Smart

Cuts loose Nadar and signs a shooter on the cheap

That is it.

this sounds about right .   

[tarheelsxxiii]

The Celtics will be just $13.8 million under the luxury tax ($123.7 mil) by letting Monroe, Gibson and Larkin walk.  There's not much flexibility beyond that, as Theis, Ojeleye, Yabu, Nader, and Wanamaker are accounted for by min/rookie salaries. 

So to keep this band together (with Baynes and Smart), we will likely need to pay the luxury tax.  We could bring them both back using their non-Bird and restricted Bird rights, respectively.  If Smart earns less than his current cap hold ($13.5mil), say maybe $12mil, that leaves enough salary to give Baynes a 120% raise from last season while remaining below the apron ($129.7). We would also be in the lowest bracket of non-repeater tax, and pay no more than $7.5 million for this season. 

While the FO has stated a willingness to pay the tax, the question is now "how soon?"  We're going to have issues with retaining this group every season beginning next year with Kyrie, then Hayward/Horford/Jalyen, then Tatum, etc.  In 3-4 years, we could be paying a Cavs-level luxury tax.  One option to avoid the tax for at last one year is to offload Morris to a team that can send back less (under the cap) or no salary (trade exception), though that appears to be a glaring IF at the moment.  Ainge has his hands full, but this comes with being a true contender.