An Amir Johnson-Like Deal For Smart Makes Sense For Both Sides

[Phantom255x]

In July of 2015, the Celtics signed Amir Johnson to a 2 year, 24M deal (2nd year team option). This was during the summer where the likes of Leonard, Butler, Aldridge, Gasol, DeAndre Jordan and many others were available, but most of them re-upped with their own teams or went elsewhere (we weren't as appealing a destination *yet* and still didn't have max cap space at the time)

This was the last summer before the cap soared and teams started giving absurd contracts to players (the likes of Turner, Noah, Mozgov, Biyombo, etc)

We had signed Amir Johnson to be a steady veteran presence for the team and to improve the team, but also so that, if a deal could be made for another star later on that season (or the next), we could use his salary to help facilitate the deal (Jerebko too - who we signed for 2 years/10M at the time, team option 2nd year). It never happened, as we picked up his 2nd year option but kept him (though he seemed to be a great locker room guy and good presence overall).

But I think doing this kind of deal makes great sense for both Marcus Smart and the Celtics. How so?

1. Smart obviously wants to get paid. Unfortunately, many teams seem to be capped out at the moment because of those absurd contracts given during the summer of 2016. But here's the thing. Most of those contracts could come off the books by the summer of 2020, so more teams could have cap space again. Smart would turn 26 at the time and would likely start entering his prime.

2. The Celtics would benefit because they’ll get two more years out of an important player at salary they can afford. They would also still have Smart at a very trade-able salary (probably next summer or during his 2nd year), which could facilitate an in-season deal moving forward. Now I won't say it will be for Anthony Davis, but certainly if another disgruntled star becomes available in the coming year or two, Ainge could pounce. Otherwise, we get at least two more years of Smart for a legit run at a championship. The problem in coming up with trades these days is, we got three max players (our main core), but then a bunch of rookie deals/cheap contracts, which makes it hard to match salaries without gutting the team, and so having a decent-sized contract like Smart sounds ideal.

MY IDEAL OFFER: Celtics should offer Smart 3 years, 33M (3rd year player option)

If Smart thinks he can get paid in UFA following the 2019-2020 season, then he can simply opt-out. Otherwise, having an 11M option the 3rd year is a nice fallback for him. Meanwhile, this deal isn't detrimental for the C's and we keep Smart at a very reasonable rate. I'm sure Ainge can work some magic wherever needed to avoid paying the tax this year if that's the goal.

Of course, we just have to pray there isn't a stupid team out there that's willing to offer Smart something like 4 years, 65M+ (in which case, he's gone for good). But I honestly doubt that will happen. This isn't like with Evan Turner where he entered FA at such a good time where cap went up and teams were offering absurd contracts left and right. Even the bad teams out there with cap may be wary about giving out these kind of deals now.

What do you guys think?

[green_bballers13]

Amir was 28 in his first year with the Celtics. Marcus is 24.

[Phantom255x]

Amir was 28 in his first year with the Celtics. Marcus is 24.

That's true, I should have mentioned it in the post, but it still doesn't change the fact that many teams are virtually capped out at the moment and Smart's offense is still really limited. I also don't think he wants to take a risk like Noel did, so this could still make a lot of sense. At age 26, Smart could still try to cash in on a great payday as more teams let go of their current, detrimental contracts.

[colincb]

Why would we bid against ourselves? Give him a Qualifying Offer and let the market set the price.

[green_bballers13]

Amir was 28 in his first year with the Celtics. Marcus is 24.

That's true, I should have mentioned it in the post, but it still doesn't change the fact that many teams are virtually capped out at the moment and Smart's offense is still really limited. I also don't think he wants to take a risk like Noel did, so this could still make a lot of sense. At age 26, Smart could still try to cash in on a great payday as more teams let go of their current, detrimental contracts.

I'm fine with the Celtics offering 3/33m. I do not see that as the winning offer, unless Marcus wants to take a hometown discount.

[Moranis]

Why would we bid against ourselves? Give him a Qualifying Offer and let the market set the price.

Sometimes that works out for the team, but sometimes not so much.  If you can lock him up for a price you find reasonable, why take the risk that some other team comes with a much better offer, which you then have to match to keep him. 

[goCeltics]

I would waive smart bye bye, and stay under the tax level and try to use the full mle on a favors, dedmon or noel, had enough of his ~45% ts %

[GreenEnvy]

I’m not convinced Marcus will want to take a few million more (easy for me to say, lol) to play for a bad team. He’s already got a taste of a deep playoff run and it’s not like he’s been riding pine during it.

How many top teams can/will offer more than the MLE? Not too many and even fewer make sense.

I think the market will not be as friendly as he believes  and one possible outcome I could see is a team putting out a higher-than-expected offer sheet to try to screw the Celtics into matching and they don’t bite.

He’s still young enough to develop a constant shot and he’s a decent ballhandler. His defense will always be elite. Should be interesting to see who offers what to him.

[feckless]

Why would we bid against ourselves? Give him a Qualifying Offer and let the market set the price.

ditto

[ETNCeltics]

I don't think they'll pay that much for Smart. Teams have to be judicious with cap $$ and Smart is too limited a player to put us into luxury tax.

I think he's played his last game as a Celtic unless we can get him at a real bargain.

[otherdave]

C's can not afford expensive long term role players - but a one year deal could appeal to both sides, and still keep the C's from paying tax if other moves were made.

I think the market is around the full MLE (8.8mil??).  I would be willing to over pay up to 11 mil, in exchange for a one year deal. Marcus would have a year to get his shooting % up (if that is possible) and get move national exposure as we march towards banner 18.  C's could use his salary in a deal if a trade came up during the year or just evaluate Terry vs Marcus in the summer of 2019.

Win - win.

[Phantom255x]

I don't think they'll pay that much for Smart. Teams have to be judicious with cap $$ and Smart is too limited a player to put us into luxury tax.

I think he's played his last game as a Celtic unless we can get him at a real bargain.

Maybe it's possible that the first year of the deal could be structured so that we stay under the tax, and then the $$$ goes up in the 2nd year when we are all but guaranteed to go into the tax. An example is Roberson, who made like 9M the first year but could be in line for 11M the 3rd year (he signed a 3/30M deal with no 3rd year option, so he just plays it out).

[Phantom255x]

I would waive smart bye bye, and stay under the tax level and try to use the full mle on a favors, dedmon or noel, had enough of his ~45% ts %

Noel?? I mean, for vet. minimum sure, I wouldn't mind at all. But MLE? LOL. Is he really going to command a contract over $5M from a team after practically sitting on the bench all last season with Dallas?

[TheSundanceKid]

Isn't the minimum length 3 years for a RFA? Pretty sure the only way he stays for one year is if he signs the QO.

[BitterJim]

Isn't the minimum length 3 years for a RFA? Pretty sure the only way he stays for one year is if he signs the QO.

It's 3 years minimum only if the Max QO is offered. For an offer sheet when just the normal QO is offered, the minimum is two years  The re-signing team can also just re-sign the player to a contract normally.

(See Question 42)