It only takes one team to outbid us, but who would that be?
Seriously, who? Here is the list of teams (listed most cap space to least) with enough cap space to offer him more than the MLE listed (cap space is the maximum possible space, including rescinding all of the teams current cap holds, which is normally unlikely).
Lakers? Nope, bigger fish to fry and they don't want to get another non-shooter in the backcourt with Ball.
Bulls? They already have Dunn and Lavine and rebuilding teams don't have a great use for a player like Smart.
Sixers? Bigger fish to fry and they don't want another non-shooter next to Simmons.
Hawks? Rebuilding team that already has lots of cash invested in Schroeder and Bazemore. Also, Dedmon, Muscala and their 1st will take away the cap space they have.
Kings? They might spend a lot of money on a young player, but can they really count on the shooting of a Fox/Smart backcourt, especially if they draft a big guy?
Mavs? More on this in a second.
Rockets? They are targeting James and resigning Paul this off-season. Not enough cap space.
Nets? Okafor, Harris, and/or Stauskas will likely all be retained first, and after that there isn't enough cap space for Smart. On top of that, they are invested in Lin, Russell, Crabbe, and Lavert.
Magic? Gordon, Hezonja, and their 1st will eat into their cap space first.
Jazz? Exum, Udoh, and O'neale will eat into the cap space they could offer to Smart.
Suns? Payton, Len, Williams, and their 1st will eat into the amount they could offer Smart.
Honestly, I cannot see any team that has the cap space to offer Smart more than the MLE actually making an offer OTHER THAN THE MAVS.
Smart is from Texas. Although Cuban has never targeted RFA in FA, Smart could be one of the first. They'd have to rescind the cap holds of Ferrell, Curry, McDermott, Noel, and Mejiri.
Also, they have to ask if Smith is a good fit with Smart. They also have a lot of money invested in Matthews for one more year.
I've argued that the Mavs are a dark horse team in FA this year. DeAndre Jordan could finally wind up there, and they may be one of the teams targeting Leonard and/or George (trade package of Barnes + the 5th pick?).
The Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Nets might decide that Smart is their guy, rescind all other cap holds, and offer him a big contract, but I find that unlikely considering their roster construct.
Seriously, I'm trying to figure out who we are outbidding for Smart's services. If a different team offers him their MLE, Ainge would match that in a second.