« Reply #180 on: July 19, 2018, 06:15:28 AM »
The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs
Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.
If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.
Mike
I don’t see Dallas tanking again. The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch. He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket. He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins. And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri. Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's. They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed. Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.
MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season. A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season.
The Mavs have been getting worse for years. They have a terribly constructed roster. They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1. They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league. Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.
I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.
This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what? Dallas is going to suck. Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings. Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.
Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book
Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1
Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.
the Lakers have like the 3rd best odds and there team is no where near that level. This is where using odds always fails.
Fox is a better prospect than Smith I believe. Bagley is a better scorer as a rookie than anyone on the Mavs. Hield is a nice shooter. Bogdanovic showed nice promise. Vets like Shumpert, Randolph, and Koufos are on the same level as the Mavs vets you are mentioning. The Mavs are done they will full on be tanking again a month into the season because they aren't going to be any good.
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