Whether you like or follow salary cap/luxury tax stuff, rest assured Wyc, Danny and Mike Zarren are. Whether this summer has few roster changes or something a little more robust, everything will be driven be staying under the luxury tax threshold one last year. The salary cap and lux tax thresholds will not be determined until July 6th. Projections have salary cap at 101/102 million, which would put the lux tax threshold at 122/123 mil. Management will keep total payroll below this lux tax amount, let's assume that it is 122.5 million.
Teams may have 15 players under contract (not counting 2 way players), but must have at least 14. With the target of keeping payroll under 122.5 m with a little cushion to spare, C's most assuredly will only keep 14 players next year.
C's currently have 11 players under contract for next year, 3 others are UFA's (Larkin, Baynes, Monroe) and Smart is a RFA.
These 11 total 11.7 mil, D. Jackson's guaranteed salary was stretched when he was waived last summer, so add another $92,857 and our pick at 27 will slot to $1,640,400 (I believe). If we keep the pick, we are now at 12 players and a payroll of about 109.1 mil.
So there is 13 mil left to spent to keep under our goal, and Smart, Baynes, Monroe and Larkin are not signed at this point. I think this is the launching point for our blog debates between now and July/August, once the dust settles.
For example, if you could even resign Baynes and Monroe for a combined 13 mil, then Smart and Larkin are gone.
If you want to keep Smart and lets say Baynes, then Monroe and Larkin walk and someone who already has a contract (say Morris at 5,375,0000) would have to be traded with little to no salary coming back.
I think Larkin will get a nice offer beyond what C's will want to afford and he will be gone.
I think it is a win-win for both Danny and Smart's camp to sign a one year deal in the 9 to 11 mil range.
So if Shane walks and Smart comes back, there is one slot left, not much money (enough for a min contract) and Baynes and Monroe not signed.
I think ultimately management has to decide who they most want back: Baynes, Monroe or Morris. If you pick Morris over the other two, you are done: sign Smart and a min contract. If you want one the centers, you will have to move Morris for a pick or something to clear salary space for one of the bigs.
Whether you trade Rozier while his value is high or package him with Morris to get one player back is probably its own topic for later in the spring.
