NBA 2018 Playoffs Thread

[Green-18]

I have never seen so many people bury a team after a single overtime loss in a 7 game series.

Seems irrational right?  It totally is.

But still, I was really blown away by how visibly the Raptors wilted in the moment trying to beat LeBron.

Some of that was confirmation bias, I guess -- it was what I feared happening and it seemed like that's exactly what happened.

But I can't explain how that game went any other way.  The Cavs are not a good team, LeBron is the only player on that team I fear right now (given that Love is clearly playing hurt).  The Raptors should be able to score on them.

Yet there the Raps were, despite everything they'd said all season about how they've changed, the offense bogging down, and their two All-Star guards completely unable to get a good shot and seemingly lacking any confidence to take a shot in crunch time.

The only guy on the floor who looked like he believed the Raptors should win the game was Valanciunas, and he apparently had spent himself by the end of the fourth quarter because he missed layup after layup.  Either that or Tristan Thompson had him spooked and rushing his attempts.


Bottom line, yeah, it's irrational, but it's also really hard to reach any other conclusion than that the Raptors -- or at least Lowry and Derozan -- mentally folded.  Yes, it's only the first game, but it's also hard to not assume based on the last few years of playoff history that Game 1 won't be representative of the rest of the series.

I don't know man. If just one of the tips or three pointers goes in in the last minute they win and everyone is talking about how different the team is. Is Freddy Vander Fleet somehow spooked too? He had a great look, and he it was just unlucky for him that he missed it. The Cavs definitely stole that game. The Cavs could absolutely win the series, but piling on them now has gotten out of control.

I really don't think the reaction towards Toronto is unwarranted.  You cannot afford to blow a game like that against a LeBron James lead team.  As I have mentioned before, the history of LeBron's career says he will not lose to a team lead by players like DeRozan and Lowry.  The margin for error is absolutely razor thin.  Let's not forget that LeBron took our championship Celtics to a game 7.  He took the 2015 Warriors to 6 games without Kyrie AND Kevin Love.  Below is a list of every team LeBron has lost to in the post-season.

2006 - Lost to defending champion Pistons in 7 games.  The Cavs second leading scorer in the playoffs was Larry Hughes at 11.1 points on 31% shooting. 

2007 - Lost to the Spurs in the Finals.  No surprise here.  Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan all in their prime

2008 - Lost to the Celtics in 7 games.  This series was way too close for comfort

2009 - Lost to Orlando in 6.  This is the one sign of hope for Toronto.  The 2009 Magic are the weakest team LeBron has ever lost to.  Unfortunately I still believe his current supporting cast is much better than the group in 2009.  We all like to rip on the 2018 Cavs but the reality is that they are still stronger than his pre-Miami teams.

2010 - Lost to the Celtics in 6.  This is where we broke LeBron. 

2011 - Lost to the Mavericks in 6.  Miami was significantly more talented but Dirk stepped up HUGE in the 4th quarter of these games.  Same goes for Jason Terry.  This Dallas team was insanely clutch during that series.

2014 - Lost to the Spurs in 5.  This was the breakout series for Kawhi Leonard.  The Spurs offense was beautiful to watch and the Heat failed to score 100 points in any game.

2015 - Lost to the Warriors in 6 - No Kyrie or Kevin Love

2017 - Lost to Warriors in 5

So basically LeBron hasn't lost to a team without a surefire Hall of Famer since the Pistons in 2006.  I suppose I could add the 2009 Magic to that list.  Technically Dwight Howard will probably make the Hall of Fame but he's not a winner IMO.

I don't really understand this premise at all. When he lost to the Spurs Duncan was not playing at a whole of fame level by any stretch of the imagination. Neither was Leonard (and who knows if Leonard is a hall of fame player given all his injuries). This year Derozen was also probably a top 10 player in the league.

Duncan was no longer playing at a Hall of Fame level but his defensive impact was still elite.  Their entire core trio was intact and Pop is one of the greatest coaches of all-time.  You cannot ignore the championship pedigree of that Spurs group. 

Nobody expected Leonard to be Finals MVP but it's not like he was randomly thrown into the rotation during the playoffs.  Kawhi was already an elite defender and super efficient scorer in the starting lineup.  You would have a point if the Spurs barely squeaked by Miami but the entire thing was a complete embarrassment.  Miami didn't score 100 points in any of the 5 games.  San Antonio played some of the most beautiful basketball you will ever see throughout the 2014 postseason.

The premise o my post is that it takes a top tier player and/or group of Hall of Fame players to beat LeBron in a playoff series regardless of his supporting cast.  DeMar Derozan has been a terrible 4th quarter playoff performer relative to his normal standards.

What is your definition of a top tier player? Derozen was probably a top 10 player this year in the league. He started in the all-star game and added a new wrinkle to his game.

Also what is this Demar did so bad in the last 5 minutes of regulation when he performed so poorly?

He had a key block, 2 points and 3 rebounds and no turnovers and no fouls. I would like to see him have another basket but it is not like he was horrible on either side of the ball, but it seems like he was making the good basketball play. People are tearing him apart for making a pass to a wide open man for a 3 pointer. This is literally the same thing Lebron has done a million times in his career in closing minutes.

That's a good question.  It's hard to define a top tier player but I would include Durant, Curry, Harden, Leonard(pre-injury), and Anthony Davis on the list.  To be honest we should just put LeBron on is own island among current players.  His performances in 2008 against Boston and 2015 against Golden State really stand out due to weak supporting casts.  I'm not sure any other current player could replicate those results with the same teammates.  I hate to acknowledge this because LeBron is one of my least favorite players in the league.

As for DeRozan, I don't blame him for the game 1 loss.  I just believe that his history of 4th quarter struggles in the playoffs is too much for Toronto to overcome the heartbreaking game 1 loss.    Hopefully the Raptors prove me wrong. 

The honest truth is that it's not DeRozan's fault for not being good enough.  He is an excellent player who could be a playoff winner with a more complete supporting cast.  Toronto needs a 3rd All-Star.  It's hard for me to bash him for not accomplishing something that most others have failed to do.

[Who]

DeRozan is not even as good as Klay Thompson. No way DeRozan is a top 10 player.

All Star? Okay.
Top 10? No way.

[Phantom255x]

Wow, didn't realize the Cavaliers-Raptors game was at 6 PM EST tonight. 

That honestly feels really early, but I guess given circumstances they had to do it...

[Green-18]

DeRozan is not even as good as Klay Thompson. No way DeRozan is a top 10 player.

All Star? Okay.
Top 10? No way.

That's a tough pick.  DeRozan might be able to carry a team further than Klay but his value decreases as you piece together a contender.  DeRozan couldn't have replaced Thompson on the original Warriors title team but Thompson couldn't replace DeRozan on this years Raptors squad.

At the end of the day I would choose Klay if I was building a team from scratch.

[Moranis]

DeRozan was an all star and 3rd Team All NBA last year.  That is the problem with awards and achievements based on stats.  I mean Westbrook was the MVP of the league last year, but I can't imagine too many people would have called Westbrook a top 5 player in the league (I think most people pretty clearly had him behind James, Curry, Durant, Harden and Leonard last year and a lot of people would have had him behind others as well). 

I mean at the start of the year, ESPN had DeRozan ranked 39th and that is with him coming off of that 3rd Team All NBA appearance.  They had Lowry at 21 and this is what Lowry's description said.

Stats & Info: If you're wondering why Lowry comes in 18 spots ahead of DeMar DeRozan, here's a clue: When DeRozan was on the floor without Lowry last season, the Raptors were outscored by 0.4 points per 100 possessions. When Lowry played without DeRozan, the Raptors outscored teams by 10.8 points per 100 possessions.

Here is DeRozan's blip (again he was 39th, dropping 9 spots despite coming off of his best season)

▪
Raptors | SG | @DeMar_DeRozan

▪
Last year's rank: 30

▪
2017-18 projected RPM: -0.63


Stats & Info: DeRozan is a master of getting to his spots, ranking second in PPG off drives and third in PPG off of pull-up jumpers. Nobody made or attempted more shots outside of 10 feet with a defender within 2 feet than DeRozan, who actually converted on a higher percentage of those than he did when there was no defender within 6 feet.

DeRozan is a good player, but I'm not even sure I'd call him a superstar (and he certainly isn't a franchise player). 

[footey]

Did anyone noticed that once Jazz went small with Favors at the 5, they go on a run?

Imagine how good they would have been had Hayward stayed.

Yeah, for the first 5 minutes of the season, LOL.

[Beat LA]

I'm not sure that I would agree. Wright, Siakam, Miles, and even Poeltl, at times, looked fine out there, to me.

Mostly for me it was about how Lowry and Derozan suddenly were unable to create any good shots for themselves or others and were apparently spooked by the Cavs trapping.

You don't really expect the lead stars of a 60 win team to look so hapless late in a game.  You expect that the main guys of a really good team would know where their spots are and know how to get to those spots, or at least make the opponent sell out some other part of their defense to prevent them getting to those spots.

Not so for the Raptors.

It really felt like the Raptors regressed back to 2015 in the span of a few minutes.

No argument there, lol.

[Moranis]

Did anyone noticed that once Jazz went small with Favors at the 5, they go on a run?

Imagine how good they would have been had Hayward stayed.

Yeah, for the first 5 minutes of the season, LOL.

ah yes because he was destined to get hurt 5 minutes in no matter where he stayed.

Now obviously Mitchell probably doesn't develop as quickly with Hayward, but they would have been a darn good team adding Mitchell to what they had last year (even if they couldn't have still added Rubio).

[celts10]

Did anyone noticed that once Jazz went small with Favors at the 5, they go on a run?

Imagine how good they would have been had Hayward stayed.

Yeah, for the first 5 minutes of the season, LOL.

Maybe, but probably not. Would have been a different situation and circumstance.

[Beat LA]

Here is DeRozan's blip (again he was 39th, dropping 9 spots despite coming off of his best season)

▪
Raptors | SG | @DeMar_DeRozan

▪
Last year's rank: 30

▪
2017-18 projected RPM: -0.63


Stats & Info: DeRozan is a master of getting to his spots, ranking second in PPG off drives and third in PPG off of pull-up jumpers. Nobody made or attempted more shots outside of 10 feet with a defender within 2 feet than DeRozan, who actually converted on a higher percentage of those than he did when there was no defender within 6 feet.

DeRozan is a good player, but I'm not even sure I'd call him a superstar (and he certainly isn't a franchise player).

Sounds like a taller version of Terry Teagle albeit with better footwork. I think. #BlastFromThePast #TBT

[Monkhouse]

Did anyone noticed that once Jazz went small with Favors at the 5, they go on a run?

Imagine how good they would have been had Hayward stayed.

Yeah, for the first 5 minutes of the season, LOL.

Did anyone noticed that once Jazz went small with Favors at the 5, they go on a run?

Imagine how good they would have been had Hayward stayed.

Yeah, for the first 5 minutes of the season, LOL.

ah yes because he was destined to get hurt 5 minutes in no matter where he stayed.

Now obviously Mitchell probably doesn't develop as quickly with Hayward, but they would have been a darn good team adding Mitchell to what they had last year (even if they couldn't have still added Rubio).

Did anyone noticed that once Jazz went small with Favors at the 5, they go on a run?

Imagine how good they would have been had Hayward stayed.

Yeah, for the first 5 minutes of the season, LOL.

Maybe, but probably not. Would have been a different situation and circumstance.

This.

Mitchell and Hayward probably would've been the perfect duo to have along with that roster.  I think they would've most likely traded Favors though.

[Beat LA]

Great, Mark "Takes out his do-it-yourself kit" Jones and Hubie Brown-noser .

[Phantom255x]

I think winner of Cavaliers-Raptors Game 2 wins the series.

That said, IF Toronto wins, I think they win the series in 6-7 games.

But if CLE wins Game 2, I see them sweeping Toronto 

No way Toronto goes to CLE down 2-0 and wins on the road with the Cavaliers officially in their heads after 2 home losses. They'll be devastated lol.

[SHAQATTACK]

ok

im call n it

Raptors are gonna get SWEPT

They have  NO coaching .....play n Cavs game and pace ....wow ...awful


Lebron is gonna be fresh for 3-4 quarters ....raptors get beat tonight and swept in Cleveland.

[Beat LA]

ok

im call n it

Raptors are gonna get SWEPT

They have  NO coaching .....play n Cavs game and pace ....wow ...awful


Lebron is gonna be fresh for 3-4 quarters ....raptors get beat tonight and swept in Cleveland.

I don't know if they'll wind up being swept, but the fact that they just cannot seem to pull away from Cleveland despite shooting 59.5% in the first half doesn't exactly bode well for them moving forward, lol.

Honestly, the start of the game told me everything when Lebron stole the tap, missed the first shot of the contest, only for Ibaka to turn it over near halfcourt, iirc , so yeah, they're definitely rattled, to say the least.

That said, I do hope that they win, but this game is too close for comfort right now, imo.